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Global Trade And The Dollar
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Book Synopsis Global Trade and the Dollar by : Ms.Emine Boz
Download or read book Global Trade and the Dollar written by Ms.Emine Boz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-13 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
Book Synopsis Global Trade and the Dollar by : Gita Gopinath
Download or read book Global Trade and the Dollar written by Gita Gopinath and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
Book Synopsis Making Sense of the Dollar by : Marc Chandler
Download or read book Making Sense of the Dollar written by Marc Chandler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-05-18 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Has the greenback really lost its preeminent place in the world? Not according to currency expert Marc Chandler, who explains why so many are—wrongly—pessimistic about both the dollar and the U.S. economy. Making Sense of the Dollar explores the many factors—trade deficits, the dollar’s role in the world, globalization, capitalism, and more—that affect the dollar and the U.S. economy and lead to the inescapable conclusion that both are much stronger than many people suppose. Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets for twenty years as a foreign exchange strategist for several Wall Street firms. He is one of the most widely respected and quoted currency experts today.
Book Synopsis Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies by : Camila Casas
Download or read book Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Book Synopsis The Dollar Trap by : Eswar S. Prasad
Download or read book The Dollar Trap written by Eswar S. Prasad and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-08-25 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why the dollar is—and will remain—the dominant global currency The U.S. dollar's dominance seems under threat. The near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008–2009, political paralysis that has blocked effective policymaking, and emerging competitors such as the Chinese renminbi have heightened speculation about the dollar’s looming displacement as the main reserve currency. Yet, as The Dollar Trap powerfully argues, the financial crisis, a dysfunctional international monetary system, and U.S. policies have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance. Eswar Prasad examines how the dollar came to have a central role in the world economy and demonstrates that it will remain the cornerstone of global finance for the foreseeable future. Marshaling a range of arguments and data, and drawing on the latest research, Prasad shows why it will be difficult to dislodge the dollar-centric system. With vast amounts of foreign financial capital locked up in dollar assets, including U.S. government securities, other countries now have a strong incentive to prevent a dollar crash. Prasad takes the reader through key contemporary issues in international finance—including the growing economic influence of emerging markets, the currency wars, the complexities of the China-U.S. relationship, and the role of institutions like the International Monetary Fund—and offers new ideas for fixing the flawed monetary system. Readers are also given a rare look into some of the intrigue and backdoor scheming in the corridors of international finance. The Dollar Trap offers a panoramic analysis of the fragile state of global finance and makes a compelling case that, despite all its flaws, the dollar will remain the ultimate safe-haven currency.
Book Synopsis The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment by : Linda S. Goldberg
Download or read book The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment written by Linda S. Goldberg and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through into prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its trading partners. With low exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices and high exchange rate pass-through to the local prices of countries consuming U.S. exports, the effect of dollar depreciation on real trade flows is dominated by an adjustment in U.S. export quantities, which increase as U.S. goods become cheaper in the rest of the world. Real U.S. imports are affected less because U.S. prices are more insulated from exchange rate movements -- pass-through is low and dollar invoicing is high. In relation to prices, the effects on the U.S. terms of trade are limited: U.S. exporters earn the same amount of dollars for each unit shipped abroad, and U.S. consumers do not encounter more expensive imports. Movements in dollar exchange rates also affect the international trade transactions of countries invoicing some of their trade in dollars, even when these countries are not transacting directly with the United States.
Book Synopsis Trade and the Dollar by : Foreign Policy Association
Download or read book Trade and the Dollar written by Foreign Policy Association and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Changing Patterns of Global Trade by : Nagwa Riad
Download or read book Changing Patterns of Global Trade written by Nagwa Riad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-15 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
Book Synopsis Dollar Invoicing, Global Value Chains, and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade by : Mr. David Cook
Download or read book Dollar Invoicing, Global Value Chains, and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade written by Mr. David Cook and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-02-11 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks depending on the origin and ultimate destination of value added and the intermediate shipments involved. For example, the model shows that in response to a dollar appreciation triggered by a US interest rate increase, direct bilateral trade between non-US countries contracts more than global value chain oriented trade which feeds US final demand, and exports to the US decline much more when measured in gross as opposed to value added terms. We use granular data on GVCs at the sector level to document empirical evidence in favor of these key predictions of the model.
Book Synopsis The Global Currency Power of the US Dollar by : Anthony Elson
Download or read book The Global Currency Power of the US Dollar written by Anthony Elson and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-09-15 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains how the US dollar serves as the primary reserve currency for the international financial system and assesses its prospects for the future. The book provides an analysis of the main factors that have given rise to the global currency power of the dollar and the key benefits that have accrued to both the United States and other countries from this arrangement. It then considers the growing costs that can be associated with the dollar-centered reserve system and the prospects for the medium-term in terms of its potential threats to global financial stability. In the light of these considerations, the book examines three alternative currency arrangements that could address some or all of the defects associated with the global currency power of the dollar. These include a shift to a multi-reserve currency system, an enhancement of the IMF’s role as an international lender of last resort and provider of global “safe” assets, and the introduction of central bank digital currencies. "A cogent, persuasive and timely look at the dollar's power." Kirkus Reviews
Book Synopsis How Global Currencies Work by : Barry Eichengreen
Download or read book How Global Currencies Work written by Barry Eichengreen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuan At first glance, the history of the modern global economy seems to support the long-held view that the currency of the world’s leading power invariably dominates international trade and finance. But in How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists overturn this conventional wisdom. Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries and marshaling extensive new data to test current theories of how global currencies work, the authors show that several national monies can share international currency status—and that their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. In fact, they show that multiple international and reserve currencies have coexisted in the past—upending the traditional view of the British pound’s dominance before 1945 and the U.S. dollar’s postwar dominance. Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, including how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.
Book Synopsis Currency Conflict and Trade Policy by : C. Fred Bergsten
Download or read book Currency Conflict and Trade Policy written by C. Fred Bergsten and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2017-06-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conflicts over currency valuations are a recurrent feature of the modern global economy. To strengthen their international competitiveness, many countries resort to buying foreign currencies to make their exports cheaper and their imports more expensive. In the first decade of the 21st century, for example, China's currency manipulation practices were so flagrant that they produced a backlash in the United States and other trading partners, prompting threats of retaliation. How damaging is the practice of currency manipulation—and how extensive is the problem? This book by C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon—two leading experts on trade, investment, and the effects of currency manipulation—traces the history, causes, and effects of currency manipulation and analyzes a range of policy responses that the United States could adopt. The book is an indispensable guide to a complex and serious problem and what might be done to solve it.
Book Synopsis The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment by : Linda S. Goldberg
Download or read book The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment written by Linda S. Goldberg and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through into prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its trading partners. With low exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices and high exchange rate pass-through to the local prices of countries consuming U.S. exports, the effect of dollar depreciation on real trade flows is dominated by an adjustment in U.S. export quantities, which increase as U.S. goods become cheaper in the rest of the world. Real U.S. imports are affected less because U.S. prices are more insulated from exchange rate movements -- pass-through is low and dollar invoicing is high. In relation to prices, the effects on the U.S. terms of trade are limited: U.S. exporters earn the same amount of dollars for each unit shipped abroad, and U.S. consumers do not encounter more expensive imports. Movements in dollar exchange rates also affect the international trade transactions of countries invoicing some of their trade in dollars, even when these countries are not transacting directly with the United States.
Book Synopsis Evolving Patterns in Global Trade and Finance by : Sven W Arndt
Download or read book Evolving Patterns in Global Trade and Finance written by Sven W Arndt and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-07-18 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Evolving Patterns in Global Trade and Finance, Professor Sven W Arndt offers succinct and rigorous explanations of important developments in trade, finance and international monetary relations. Topics include economic and monetary integration, cross-border production networks, and stabilization policy in orthodox and mixed exchange-rate regimes. The theoretical framework developed in this volume provides critical assessments of existing policies and practices, develops theoretical foundations for new and emerging patterns in trade and finance, and evaluates how well economists and policy makers are dealing (or have dealt) with the challenges they face. Readers will find the most in-depth and comprehensive discussion of international production networks (“off-shoring”), a detailed analysis of the implications for US economic stability and policy autonomy of its unorthodox exchange rate regime of fixed and floating rates, and insights into the causes of recent economic and financial turmoil in the global economy. Contents:Part I: Beyond the Standard Trade Model:Free Trade and Its AlternativesOn Discriminatory vs. Non-Preferential Tariff PoliciesCustoms Union and the Theory of TariffsDomestic Distortions and Trade PolicyPart II: Fragmentation and Cross-Border Production Networks:FragmentationSuper-Specialization and the Gains from TradeGlobal Production Networks and Regional IntegrationProduction Networks in an Economically Integrated RegionTrade Diversion and Production SharingProduction Networks, Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic StabilityTrade, Production Networks and the Exchange RateIntra-Industry Trade and the Open EconomyFragmentation, Imperfect Competition and Heterogeneous FirmsPart III: Macro Policy Challenges in Open Economies:Policy Choices in an Open Economy: Some Dynamic ConsiderationsJoint Balance: Capital Mobility and the Monetary System of a Currency AreaInternational Short-Term Capital Movements: A Distributed Lag Model of Speculation in Foreign ExchangeRegional Currency Arrangements in North AmericaAdjustment in an Open Economy with Two Exchange-Rate RegimesStabilization Policy in an Economy with Two Exchange Rate RegimesPolicy Challenges in a Dual Exchange Rate RegimeThe "Great Moderation" in a Dual Exchange Rate Regime Readership: Advanced economics undergraduates and graduate students; academic researchers in both trade and open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Key Features:Offers the most complete and comprehensive analysis of “off-shoring” and international production networksPays serious attention to the existence of distortions and anti-competitive elements that threaten the ability of markets to function properlyAddresses weaknesses in current exchange rate arrangements that may contribute to global economic and financial instabilityKeywords:Preferential Trade Areas;Fragmentation;Cross-Border Production Networks;Off-Shoring;Currency Areas and Monetary Union;Single vs. Dual-Exchange Rate Regimes;Stabilization Policy in Open Economies;International Monetary Relations
Book Synopsis Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What? by :
Download or read book Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What? written by and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dollar rose about 35 percent in real terms from 1995 to the end of 2001, supporting the US economy of the late 1990s but pushing the current account deficit to a record high. This book looks at the impact of this, examining intervention to achieve desired currency values and the impact of a major dollar realignment on worldwide economies.
Book Synopsis Trade in the 21st Century by : Bernard M. Hoekman
Download or read book Trade in the 21st Century written by Bernard M. Hoekman and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2021-01-19 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite troubled trade negotiations, global trade—and trade policy—will thrive in the twenty-first century, but with a bow to the past. Is the multilateral trading order of the twentieth century a historical artifact? Was the creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995 the high point of multilateral cooperation on trade? This new volume, edited by Bernard M. Hoekman and Ernesto Zedillo, assesses the relevance of the WTO in the context of the rise of China and the United States' turn toward unilateral protectionism. The contributors adopt a historical perspective to discuss changes in global trade policy trends, adducing lessons from the past to help understand current trade tensions. Topics include responses to U.S. protectionism under the Trump administration, the policy dimensions of trade in services and the rise of the digital economy, how to strengthen the WTO to better negotiate new rules of the game and adjudicate disputes, managing China's integration into the global trade system, and the implications of global value chains for economic development policies. By reflecting on past episodes of protectionism and how they were resolved, Trade in the 21st Century provides both context and guidance on how trade challenges can be addressed in the coming decades.
Book Synopsis Trade, Inflation, and the Dollar by : Thibaut De Saint-Phalle
Download or read book Trade, Inflation, and the Dollar written by Thibaut De Saint-Phalle and published by Greenwood. This book was released on 1984 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
