Author : Adam Balcer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Book Synopsis Germany, Poland and the Future of Transatlanticcommunity by : Adam Balcer
Download or read book Germany, Poland and the Future of Transatlanticcommunity written by Adam Balcer and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Main theses • Despite the trend of rising multi-polarity the transatlantic community of the EU and the US remains a key economic and political alliance on the globe. Nevertheless, Donald Trump’s as-cent as the US President changed the nature of relations between the EU and the US as will the exit of the UK from the European Union. For the first time since World War II, Trump has emerged as an American leader who questioned benefits of European integration. What is worse, some of his statements have been noticeably and openly anti-European.• After the EU membership referendum in the UK and anticipated Brexit, a relationship be-tween Germany and the US, in economic terms, will become the backbone of the transatlantic community due to Germany’s share in economic exchange (FDI, trade in goods and services) between the US and the EU. At the same time, bilateral Polish-US economic relations have been below their potential but Poland’s economy has been strongly integrated with Germany through the global value chains. By default, Poland benefits from European trade with the US, although mostly intermediated by its Western neighbor.• Given President Trump’s rhetoric and actions on trade, there still has been a risk of a trade spat between Germany/EU and the US if not a fully-fledged trade-war. It has been not only the US but also international institutions and EU trade partners that have criticized German trade surplus for a long time. Germany, in turn, repeatedly pointed out at its competitiveness and the need for the trade partners to increase theirs. With time passing, the German posi-tion regarding the country’s trade surplus has become more flexible. A discussion has been ongoing about the need to step up internal German consumption and investments that could contribute to a decrease in its trade surplus. • Poland, because of its frontier location within NATO and the EU, defines its key national inter-ests in its relations with the US mainly in security terms. Since Russia is seen as a rising threat due to its neo-imperial policies, Polish approach and plea remains perfectly legitimate as the US remains the only reliable security provider for the country. It is critical for Poland that re-lations with and within NATO remain strong. This requires, however, to reconcile competing claims of President Trump of a radical increase in military spending by the European allies as a precondition to the survival of the Alliance, with those of Germany, that wants to balance military spending with other security related expenses. • Substantial ideological differences exist between the Polish ruling elite and the Trump admin-istration on the one side, and the mainstream of the German political elite on the other. The current Polish government of Law and Justice (PiS) positions itself as an ideological adherent of President Trump. It tries to use this ideological affiliation to leverage its ties with the US. On the other hand, the same ideological propensities of President Trump that proved so al-luring for the Polish conservatives, have seriously dented America’s image within the German society and, to a lesser degree, among its political elite. • The Polish government has been vehemently pursuing domestic policies that aim at disman-tling both, the rule of law and the ‘checks-and-balances’. These actions have put the country on a collision course with the EU. In consequence, Polish-German bilateral relations have also seriously deteriorated in recent months. Amongst many irritants, the Polish government has been unwilling to accept the de facto German leadership in the EU and its own position as Germany’s junior partner. In response to the rising tensions between Poland and both, the EU and Germany, the Law and Justice (PiS) government has been seeking the US-Polish relation to function as a potential “shield” against the criticism of Berlin and Brussels. The government would willingly see Poland replacing the UK as a key political ally of the US in the EU. This, however, would still need to be a different alliance to that with London as Warsaw does not match the UK’s potential nor the quality of its ties with the US. • The Polish government has been skeptical about the long-term benefits of Poland’s inclusion in the German-Polish economic value chains. To the extend, they see those value chains as a potential barrier for Poland, unhelpful in overcoming a so called “medium income trap” and as leading to a quasi-colonial, peripheral dependency that restricts the country’s sovereignty. The Polish government does not share the view that long-term modernization and conver-gence of Poland with the most advanced economies of the West will largely need to draw on solidified Polish-German economic ties, Poland’s accession to the Eurozone and, only subse-quently, on increasing economic cooperation with non-European countries including the US. In consequence, the idea of a possible decoupling of the Polish economy from Germany and, more widely from the Eurozone, expressed by prominent political figures within the ruling elite may prove a dangerous self-fulfilling prophecy that ultimately undermines Polish eco-nomic development.
