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Four Decades Of Terms Of Trade Booms
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Book Synopsis Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-09 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the history of terms-of-trade booms (during 1970–2012), with a focus on Latin America, through the prisms of a simple metric that quantifies the associated income windfall. We also document saving patterns during these episodes and propose a measure of how much of the income windfall was saved. We find that Latin America‘s terms-of-trade shocks of the last decade have not differed much in magnitude from those observed during the 1970s, but that the associated windfall have been substantially larger. While aggregate saving increased more than in past episodes, the share of the windfall saved (the marginal saving rate) seems to be lower, suggesting that greater aggregate saving reflects mainly the sheer size of the windfall rather than a greater 'effort' to save it. Finally, we find evidence that, while savings during the boom help to increase post-boom income, the composition of such savings matters. Specifically, in past episodes, savings allocated to foreign asset accumulation appear to have contributed more to post-boom income than those devoted to domestic investment.
Book Synopsis Commodity Terms of Trade :h[electronic Resource] by : Nikola Spatafora
Download or read book Commodity Terms of Trade :h[electronic Resource] written by Nikola Spatafora and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents."--Abstract.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498395147 Total Pages :73 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Colombia by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Colombia written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-28 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: KEY ISSUES Context. Colombia’s economic performance has been robust, underpinned by a very strong policy framework. Last year, real GDP grew by 4.3 percent, with low inflation. The country has a strong external position; the financial system is sound; and fiscal policy remains guided by a structural fiscal balance rule. The authorities intend to undertake an ambitious infrastructure program to be executed through public-private partnerships. Outlook and risks. Real GDP growth is projected to converge to potential (about 41⁄2 percent) in 2014, with inflation remaining within the 2–4 percent target range. The medium-term outlook is favorable, but risks are tilted to the downside. Colombia’s important and growing ties with the global economy expose the economy to external risks. The most important sources of risk are a decline in oil prices, a deterioration in global financial conditions, and volatility from the normalization of monetary policy in the U.S. Near-term policy mix. The current policy mix is broadly adequate. As the ongoing economic recovery takes hold, monetary and fiscal policies are expected to shift to a more neutral stance. Colombia continues to rely on a flexible exchange rate to absorb external shocks. The authorities are also taking advantage of abundant foreign inflows, primarily foreign direct investment, to strengthen their international reserve buffer. Medium-term challenges. Colombia’s key challenge is to sustain strong and inclusive growth with macroeconomic stability. To this purpose, it will be important to: (i) adhere to the fiscal consolidation plan, supporting it with revenue mobilization; (ii) address the infrastructure gap, without increasing fiscal risks; (iii) enhance the social security system by increasing coverage and improving equity, and containing health care costs; (iv) address remaining weaknesses in financial sector supervision; and (v) foster financial inclusion.
Book Synopsis After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean by : Bertrand Gruss
Download or read book After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean written by Bertrand Gruss and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-15 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.
Book Synopsis Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about 1⁄2 of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484394607 Total Pages :89 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Peru by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Peru written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-29 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru’s economy continues to be a leader in high growth and low inflation in the region, which has been achieved through a prudent macroeconomic policy implementation, a far-reaching structural reform agenda and taking advantage of the benign external environment. After reaching 4.7 percent in 2011, end-period inflation fell to 2.6 percent in 2012, within the 1–3 percent target range. Stimulative monetary and fiscal policies played an instrumental role in supporting the recovery. The outlook remains favorable in the near term despite challenging external conditions.
Book Synopsis Latin America by : Ms.Dora M. Iakova
Download or read book Latin America written by Ms.Dora M. Iakova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years countries in Latin America made tremendous progress in strengthening their economies and improving living standards. Although output fell temporarily during the global financial crisis, most economies staged a rapid recovery. However, economic activity across the region has been cooling off and the region is facing a more challenging period ahead. This book argues that Latin America can rise to the challenge, and policymakers in the region are already implementing reforms in education, energy, and other sectors. More is needed, and more is possible, in Latin America’s quest to continue to improve living standards.
Book Synopsis The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru by : Mr.Francisco Roch
Download or read book The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru written by Mr.Francisco Roch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.
Book Synopsis Rethinking International Trade by : Paul Krugman
Download or read book Rethinking International Trade written by Paul Krugman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994-03-29 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, a small group of economists has challenged traditional wisdom about international trade. Rethinking International Trade provides a coherent account of this research program and traces the key steps in an exciting new trade theory that offers, among other possibilities, new arguments against free trade. Over the past decade a small group of economists has challenged traditional wisdom about international trade. Rethinking International Trade provides a coherent account of this research program and traces the key steps in an exciting new trade theory that offers, among other possibilities, new arguments against free trade. Krugman's introduction is a valuable guide to research that has delved anew into the causes of international trade and reopened basic questions about the international pattern of specialization, the effects of protectionism, and what constitutes an optimal trade policy. In the four sections that follow, he takes a revisionary look at the causes of international trade, and discusses growth and the role of history, technological change and trade, and strategic trade policy.
Book Synopsis Trade and Poverty by : Jeffrey G. Williamson
Download or read book Trade and Poverty written by Jeffrey G. Williamson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2013-01-11 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How the rise of globalization over the past two centuries helps explain the income gap between rich and poor countries today. Today's wide economic gap between the postindustrial countries of the West and the poorer countries of the third world is not new. Fifty years ago, the world economic order—two hundred years in the making—was already characterized by a vast difference in per capita income between rich and poor countries and by the fact that poor countries exported commodities (agricultural or mineral products) while rich countries exported manufactured products. In Trade and Poverty, leading economic historian Jeffrey G. Williamson traces the great divergence between the third world and the West to this nexus of trade, commodity specialization, and poverty. Analyzing the role of specialization, de-industrialization, and commodity price volatility with econometrics and case studies of India, Ottoman Turkey, and Mexico, Williamson demonstrates why the close correlation between trade and poverty emerged. Globalization and the great divergence were causally related, and thus the rise of globalization over the past two centuries helps account for the income gap between rich and poor countries today.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484382471 Total Pages :66 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, May 2013, Western Hemisphere by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, May 2013, Western Hemisphere written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-06 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite some global risks, external conditions for Latin America should remain stimulative. With monetary policy in advanced economies expected to stay accommodative, external financing conditions will remain favorable. Strong demand from emerging Asian economies and the gradual recovery of advanced economies will continue to support commodity prices, benefiting exporters. The main policy challenge for most of the region is to take advantage of current conditions to continue buttressing a foundation for sustained growth. Other issues important to the region include: (i) strengthening balance sheets; (ii) understanding how changes in external conditions could impact public and external debt dynamics; and (iii) making the best use of the windfall from the recent terms-of-trade boom.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513520733 Total Pages :228 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475558538 Total Pages :16 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, September 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, September 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-09-16 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.
Book Synopsis International Trade by : Anne O. Krueger
Download or read book International Trade written by Anne O. Krueger and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-07 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International trade and trade policy have become increasingly important and complex in recent years. In this comprehensive introduction to the key aspects of international trade policy, noted authority Anne O. Krueger explains what has happened and why these issues are so difficult. With evidence-based analysis and an even-handed approach, International Trade: What Everyone Needs to Know lays the foundation to understand what trade does and does not do. Focusing on the importance of trade in both goods and services, Krueger explores the effects of various trade policies step-by-step and demonstrates why economists generally support free trade. Krueger considers the historical experience, highlighting how technological changes and reduction of trade barriers helped transform the world economy. Tariffs, antidumping and countervailing duties, government procurement policies, preferential trading arrangements, trade with developing countries and emerging markets, and the World Trade Organization are examined. Krueger tackles the fundamental questions surrounding trade including: What are the benefits and costs? What are trade deficits and do they matter? Why do some people favor protectionism and barriers to trade? How does trade policy affect workers? Written in question-and-answer format, this non-technical introduction to the policies of international trade provides an indispensable guide to one of the most crucial elements of the global economy.
Download or read book Peru written by Alejandro M. Werner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-16 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peru stands out among Latin American countries as an example of successful economic reforms over the past decade. This comprehensive look at Peru's economy traces that country's journey from a debt crisis in the 1980s to having buffers in place that allowed it to emerge unscathed from the global financial crisis. The book examines the steps Peru undertook to achieve these results and extracts lessons to be learned. Chapters are written by IMF staff and Peruvian economists.
Book Synopsis Has Latin American Inequality Changed Direction? by : Luis Bértola
Download or read book Has Latin American Inequality Changed Direction? written by Luis Bértola and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-25 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book brings together a range of ideas and theories to arrive at a deeper understanding of inequality in Latin America and its complex realities. To so, it addresses questions such as: What are the origins of inequality in Latin America? How can we create societies that are more equal in terms of income distribution, gender equality and opportunities? How can we remedy the social divide that is making Latin America one of the most unequal regions on earth? What are the roles played by market forces, institutions and ideology in terms of inequality? In this book, a group of global experts gathered by the Institute for the Integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (INTAL), part of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), show readers how various types of inequality, such as economical, educational, racial and gender inequality have been practiced in countries like Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico and many others through the centuries. Presenting new ideas, new evidence, and new methods, the book subsequently analyzes how to move forward with second-generation reforms that lay the foundations for more egalitarian societies. As such, it offers a valuable and insightful guide for development economists, historians and Latin American specialists alike, as well as students, educators, policymakers and all citizens with an interest in development, inequality and the Latin American region.
Book Synopsis The China Triangle by : Kevin Gallagher
Download or read book The China Triangle written by Kevin Gallagher and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gallagher traces the development of the China-Latin America trade over time and covers how it has affected the centuries-old (and highly unequal) US-Latin American relationship. He argues that despite these opportunities Latin American nations have little to show for riding the coattails of the 'China Boom' and now face significant challenges in the next decades as China's economy slows down and shifts more toward consumption and services. While the Latin American region saw significant economic growth due to China's rise over the past decades, Latin Americans saved very little of the windfall profits it earned even as the region saw a significant hollowing of its industrial base. What is more, commodity-led growth during the China boom reignited social and environmental conflicts across the region. Scholars and reporters have covered the Chinese expansion into East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australasia, Africa, the US, and Europe.
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