Inflation Expectations

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations by : Paul Söderlind

Download or read book Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations written by Paul Söderlind and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451853750
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates by : Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson

Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.

Monetary Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates and Forward Interest Rates as Indicators

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates and Forward Interest Rates as Indicators by : Lars E. O. Svensson

Download or read book Monetary Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates and Forward Interest Rates as Indicators written by Lars E. O. Svensson and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the new situation with flexible exchange rates, monetary policy in Europe will have to rely more on indicators than previously under fixed rates. One of the potential indicators, the forward interest rate curve, can be used to indicate market expectations of the time-paths of future short interest rates, monetary policy, inflation rates and currency depreciation rates. The forward rate curve separates market expectations for the short, medium and long term more easily than the standard yield curve. Monetary policy in France, Germany, Great Britain, Sweden and the United States is interpreted with the help of forward rates.

Forward Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (642 download)

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Book Synopsis Forward Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations by : Hans Dillén

Download or read book Forward Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations written by Hans Dillén and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Difficult Art of Eliciting Long-Run Inflation Expectations from Government Bond Prices

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Author :
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437933645
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)

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Book Synopsis Difficult Art of Eliciting Long-Run Inflation Expectations from Government Bond Prices by : Carlos Enrique Zarazaga

Download or read book Difficult Art of Eliciting Long-Run Inflation Expectations from Government Bond Prices written by Carlos Enrique Zarazaga and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks are always concerned with keeping long-run inflation expectations well anchored at some implicit or explicit low target inflation rate. To that end, they are constantly on the lookout for indicators that can gauge those expectations accurately. One such indicator frequently reported in the specialized financial press and by central banks around the world is constructed with the forward rates technique, which exploits price differentials between government bonds of various maturities. This report examines the theory behind those indicators and assesses the extent to which they can be trusted in practice. Charts and tables.

Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317498658
Total Pages : 154 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (174 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles) by : James W. Coons

Download or read book Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles) written by James W. Coons and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-24 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.

Monetary Policy Strategies

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451952570
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Strategies by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Monetary Policy Strategies written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-10-04 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper considers the merits of rules and discretion for monetary policy when the structure of the macroeconomic model and the probability distributions of disturbances are not well defined. It is argued that when it is costly to delay policy reactions to seldom-experienced shocks until formal algorithmic learning has been accomplished, and when time consistency problems are significant, a mixed strategy that combines a simple verifiable rule with discretion is attractive. The paper also discusses mechanisms for mitigating credibility problems and emphasizes that arguments against various types of simple rules lose their force under a mixed strategy.

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates by : Pierre-Richard Agénor

Download or read book Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past few years, a number of central banks have adopted inflation targeting for monetary policy. The author provides an introduction to inflation targeting, with an emphasis on analytical issues, and the recent experience of middle- and high-income developing countries (which have relatively low inflation to begin with, and reasonably well-functioning financial markets). After presenting a formal analytical framework, the author discusses the basic requirements for inflation targeting, and how such a regime differs from money, and exchange rate targeting regimes. After discussing the operational framework for inflation targeting (including the price index to monitor the time horizon, the forecasting procedures, and the role of asset prices), he examines recent experiences with inflation targets, providing new evidence on the convexity of the Phillips curve for six developing countries. His conclusions: Inflation targeting is a flexible policy framework that allows a country's central bank to exercise some degree of discretion, without putting in jeopardy its main objective of maintaining stable prices. In middle- and high-income developing economies that can refrain from implicit exchange rate targeting, it can improve the design, and performance of monetary policy, compared with other policy approaches that central banks may follow. Not all countries may be able to satisfy the technical requirements (such as adequate price data, adequate understanding of the links between instruments, and targets of monetary policy, and adequate forecasting capabilities), but such requirements should not be overstated. Forecasting capability can never be perfect, and sensible projections always involve qualitative judgment. More important, and often more difficult, is the task of designing, or improving an institutional framework that would allow the central bank to pursue the goal of low, stable inflation, while maintaining the ability to stabilize fluctuations in output.

The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)

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Book Synopsis The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Reuben A. Kessel

Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting by : Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting written by Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism by : Mr.Peter B. Clark

Download or read book Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism written by Mr.Peter B. Clark and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-08 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a small model of the output-inflation process in the United States in order to examine the implications of alternative monetary policy rules. In particular, two types of policy rules are considered; a myopic rule where interest rates respond contemporaneously to output and inflation and a forward-looking policy rule that exploits information about the nature of transmission mechanism in the setting of interest rates. The model has two key features. First, there are significant lags between interest rates and aggregate demand conditions. Second, the model is based on an asymmetric model of inflation where positive deviations of aggregate demand from potential are more inflationary than negative deviations are disinflationary. As a consequence of this asymmetry, a policymaker that follows a myopic policy rule and allows the economy to overheat periodically will be forced to impose large recessions on the economy to keep inflation under control. The paper shows that the estimated degree of asymmetry implies that myopic policies can result in significant permanent losses in output. By contrast, policymakers that follow a forward-looking policy rule that avoids overheating will not only reduce the variance of output but also raise the mean level of output.

How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484358600
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates? by : Mr.Sohrab Rafiq

Download or read book How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates? written by Mr.Sohrab Rafiq and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, consistent with the literature, that a one-percent rise in the long-run projected debt-to-GDP ratio causes an increase in bond yields of a relatively modest 1-to-6 basis points. Shocks to growth expectations and risk aversion have been comparatively more successful in explaining the behavior of long-term rates. The findings imply that growth policies rather than long-run projections of fiscal outcomes may be more important in helping influence long-term borrowing costs.

Estimating and Interpreting the Yield Curve

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Estimating and Interpreting the Yield Curve by : Nicola Anderson

Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting the Yield Curve written by Nicola Anderson and published by . This book was released on 1996-06-04 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A yield curve is a graph indicating the term structure of interest rates by plotting the yields of all bonds of the same quality. This book provides a thorough analysis of estimation techniques and a survey of yield curve interpretation. On the former it is the most advanced book in its field, on the latter it provides an introduction to more specialised texts. It also provides important insight into the latest thinking on these techniques at the Bank of England.

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (118 download)

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Book Synopsis Forward Guidance and Household Expectations by : Olivier Coibion

Download or read book Forward Guidance and Household Expectations written by Olivier Coibion and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households' expectations of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized controlled trial using more than 25,000 U.S. individuals in the Nielsen Homescan panel. We elicit individuals' expectations and then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current and/or future inflation and interest rates. Information treatments about current and next year's interest rates have a strong effect on household expectations but treatments beyond one year do not have any additional impact on forecasts. Exogenous variation in inflation expectations transmits into other expectations. The richness of our survey allows us to better understand how individuals form expectations about macroeconomic variables jointly and the non-response to long-run forward guidance is consistent with models in which agents have constrained capacity to collect and process information.

The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility by : Lars E. O. Svensson

Download or read book The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility written by Lars E. O. Svensson and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Reactions of Real Yields and Inflation Expectations to Forward Guidance in the United States

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)

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Book Synopsis Reactions of Real Yields and Inflation Expectations to Forward Guidance in the United States by :

Download or read book Reactions of Real Yields and Inflation Expectations to Forward Guidance in the United States written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: