Forecasting Your Future

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Predicting the Future

Author : Nicholas Rescher
Publisher : SUNY Press
ISBN 13 : 9780791435533
Total Pages : 334 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (355 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting the Future by : Nicholas Rescher

Download or read book Predicting the Future written by Nicholas Rescher and published by SUNY Press. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.

Future Ready

Author : Steve Morlidge
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470662212
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Ready by : Steve Morlidge

Download or read book Future Ready written by Steve Morlidge and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-02-19 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Forecasting the Future & Redefining Your Future

Author : David Goldsmith
Publisher : BenBella Books
ISBN 13 : 1937856569
Total Pages : 90 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (378 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting the Future & Redefining Your Future by : David Goldsmith

Download or read book Forecasting the Future & Redefining Your Future written by David Goldsmith and published by BenBella Books. This book was released on 2012-10-23 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In reality, the conditions we live with today are simply the results of decisions made in the past and, in leadership terms, this means that the better able you are to project your thinking into the future and forecast upcoming challenges and opportunities on the horizon, the more effectively you can decide today how to forge tomorrow. Get the tools and concepts that have a high-beam effect on your thinking, project your focus more accurately into the future, and cash in on the positive benefits of your improved strategic planning now and in years to come.

Forecasting Your Future

Author : Hazelwood Book Publishing Company
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780921039013
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (39 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Your Future by : Hazelwood Book Publishing Company

Download or read book Forecasting Your Future written by Hazelwood Book Publishing Company and published by . This book was released on 1987-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Managing the Future

Author : Stephen M. Millett
Publisher : Triarchy Press
ISBN 13 : 1909470007
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing the Future by : Stephen M. Millett

Download or read book Managing the Future written by Stephen M. Millett and published by Triarchy Press. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to forecasting and strategic planning for organizations

Future Ready

Author : Steve Morlidge
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470747056
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Ready by : Steve Morlidge

Download or read book Future Ready written by Steve Morlidge and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-01-11 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Future Babble

Author : Dan Gardner
Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
ISBN 13 : 0771035217
Total Pages : 319 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Babble by : Dan Gardner

Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Superforecasting

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Time Series Prediction

Author : Andreas S. Weigend
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 042997227X
Total Pages : 665 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Prediction by : Andreas S. Weigend

Download or read book Time Series Prediction written by Andreas S. Weigend and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-05-04 with total page 665 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is a summary of a time series forecasting competition that was held a number of years ago. It aims to provide a snapshot of the range of new techniques that are used to study time series, both as a reference for experts and as a guide for novices.

Strategic Business Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Shaping the Future of Your Business

Author : Simon Ramo
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 0071626174
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (716 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Business Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Shaping the Future of Your Business by : Simon Ramo

Download or read book Strategic Business Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Shaping the Future of Your Business written by Simon Ramo and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2009-03-07 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “A helpful read not just for corporate strategists but for almost anyone looking ahead.” Los Angeles Times What's Your Next Big Move? At the turn of the century, Western Union passed on the chance to dominate the telephone industry. Later, General Electric concluded that a new invention called television was doomed to fail. And very recently, decision makers at the highest level were taken off-guard when the global economy dropped from under their feet--and took their companies with it. Today, only those business leaders with the power of long-term foresight will seize and hold true competitive advantage. But can managers really predict the future? Yes, to a greater extent than one might expect. Strategic Business Forecasting shows how to identify and quantify possible events that may affect your business. Applying creativity, personal experience, and the lessons of history, you can use such forecasting to develop plans that will help your organization compete. Drs. Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar, two giants of the aerospace industry, share their Four-Measures Rating system to help you explore the world of possibilities--thoroughly and systematically. Under their tutelage, you will be equipped to: Create a comprehensive list of possible scenarios concerning your business Utilize a scoring system to rate each scenario's merit as a serious and useful prediction Develop an effective plan that strategically shapes the future of your organization The authors provide vivid illustrations of the Four-Measures system at work with real-world examples of both forecasting failures and successes. No one can predict perfectly, and the authors don't promise magic. With the approach described in Strategic Business Forecasting, however, you can ensure your organization is better poised to seize future opportunities, avoid pitfalls, and handle anything the increasingly volatile global economy throws your way.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman

Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Stumbling on Happiness

Author : Daniel Gilbert
Publisher : Vintage Canada
ISBN 13 : 0307371360
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis Stumbling on Happiness by : Daniel Gilbert

Download or read book Stumbling on Happiness written by Daniel Gilbert and published by Vintage Canada. This book was released on 2009-02-24 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A smart and funny book by a prominent Harvard psychologist, which uses groundbreaking research and (often hilarious) anecdotes to show us why we’re so lousy at predicting what will make us happy – and what we can do about it. Most of us spend our lives steering ourselves toward the best of all possible futures, only to find that tomorrow rarely turns out as we had expected. Why? As Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert explains, when people try to imagine what the future will hold, they make some basic and consistent mistakes. Just as memory plays tricks on us when we try to look backward in time, so does imagination play tricks when we try to look forward. Using cutting-edge research, much of it original, Gilbert shakes, cajoles, persuades, tricks and jokes us into accepting the fact that happiness is not really what or where we thought it was. Among the unexpected questions he poses: Why are conjoined twins no less happy than the general population? When you go out to eat, is it better to order your favourite dish every time, or to try something new? If Ingrid Bergman hadn’t gotten on the plane at the end of Casablanca, would she and Bogey have been better off? Smart, witty, accessible and laugh-out-loud funny, Stumbling on Happiness brilliantly describes all that science has to tell us about the uniquely human ability to envision the future, and how likely we are to enjoy it when we get there.

Your Future Self

Author : Hal Hershfield
Publisher : Little, Brown Spark
ISBN 13 : 0316421367
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis Your Future Self by : Hal Hershfield

Download or read book Your Future Self written by Hal Hershfield and published by Little, Brown Spark. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Set your future self up for success with the “fascinating, profound, and immediately practical guide to shaping your life to come, while living more richly in the moment."―Oliver Burkeman, author of Four Thousand Weeks We've all had the desire to travel through time and see what our lives will be like later in life. But while we want the best possible future for ourselves, we often fail to make decisions that would truly make that version of the future a reality: Why do we choose steak over vegetables at dinner, waving off concerns about high cholesterol? Why do we splurge on luxury cars rather than save for retirement? Why can’t we stick to our exercise programs? Why are so many of us so disconnected from our future selves? Based on over a decade of groundbreaking research, Your Future Self is the “entertaining and powerful book” (Carol Dweck, author of Mindset) that explains that in our minds, our future selves often look like strangers. Many of us view the future as incredibly distant, making us more likely to opt for immediate gratification that disregards our health and well-being in the years to come. People who are able to connect with their future selves, however, are better able to balance living for today and planning for tomorrow. “Mind-boggling and soul-stirring” (Daniel H. Pink, author of The Power of Regret), Your Future Self describes the mental mistakes we make in thinking about the future and gives us practical advice for imagining our best future so we can make that vision a reality.

The Knowable Future

Author :
Publisher : iUniverse
ISBN 13 : 9781469740089
Total Pages : 223 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis The Knowable Future by :

Download or read book The Knowable Future written by and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 1999-01-06 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique book gives you a practical guide to a full range of traditional forecasting methods that can be used in business, government, and management to predict future events and trends and to guide your planning and investments. A former member of Princeton University's psychology faculty, David Loye examines the science lying behind predicting the future and outlines a theoretically advanced yet practical, down-to-Earth psychology for futures forecasting. His findings here will be helpful to anyone who wants to improve a personal ability to foresee trends affecting his or her own future.

Predictive Analytics for Business Forecasting & Planning

Author : J. Eric Wilson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780983941385
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (413 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictive Analytics for Business Forecasting & Planning by : J. Eric Wilson

Download or read book Predictive Analytics for Business Forecasting & Planning written by J. Eric Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2020-12 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Prediction, Projection and Forecasting

Author : Thomas L. Saaty
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9789401579544
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (795 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction, Projection and Forecasting by : Thomas L. Saaty

Download or read book Prediction, Projection and Forecasting written by Thomas L. Saaty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-12-16 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We predict when we say in advance, foretell, or prophesy what is likely to happen in the future. We project when we calculate the numerical value associated with a future event. We forecast, a special kind of prediction, on data of past happenings to generate or cast data for future by relying happenings. Generally, one predicts (yes, no) a war, an earthquake or the outcome of a chess match, projects the value of the GNP or of unemployment, and forecasts the weather and, more scientifically, the economic trends. Prediction, projection, and forecasting must be constrained in time and space: when and where. Often the accuracy of a forecast is of interest along with how sensitive the outcome is to changes in the factors involved. Is there a basis for improving the wisdom we need to make correct and useful predictions? We believe there is, and that it can be cultivated by studying the approach given here along with the various examples. To the best of our knowledge, no other work has approached prediction in the scientific framework of hierarchies. Prediction is the synthesis of past and present in an attempt to foretell the future. In our view, creation is not the ultimate phenomenon of the world. Nature creates forms and so do we. The problem is to surmise the eventual purpose, impact, and use of creation. It is the synthesis or outcome of bringing together the results of creation that we need to predict.

The Extreme Future

Author : James Canton
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101213493
Total Pages : 437 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis The Extreme Future by : James Canton

Download or read book The Extreme Future written by James Canton and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2006-09-21 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dr. James Canton, a renowned futurist, CEO of the Institute for Global Futures, and Fortune 1000 advisor, charts a course to steer you through the volatile changes that lie 5, 10, and 20 years ahead. The Extreme Future is this generation’s Future Shock, Alvin Toffler’s classic book on what’s next and how to prepare for tomorrow. Get ready for fast, radical and complex change. Get ready for the Extreme Future. Our world is constantly buffeted by new and dramatic changes that we can’t fully grasp. No one is fully prepared for the challenges, crises and risks that lie ahead. The Extreme Future is a blueprint for what’s next and how to navigate these changes. An advisor to three White House’s spanning more than 30 years, Dr. Canton challenges us that with the right information about future trends it is possible to identify probable outcomes. It is possible, with the right information to navigate the Extreme Future. The book covers the following major trends: How climate change and energy trends will reshape the planet How shifting population trends will transform the workforce How radical innovation trends will competitively drive business How astounding medicine trends will enhance people’s life How dangerous terrorism trends will threaten the individual. How the rise of China will bring on a new global power struggle The answers to these questions are not only available, but contained within these pages. The Extreme Future is the forecasting handbook for the twenty-first century.