Forecasting With Partial Least Squares When A Large Number Of Predictors Are Available

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Forecasting with Partial Least Squares When a Large Number of Predictors Are Available

Author : Seung C. Ahn
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting with Partial Least Squares When a Large Number of Predictors Are Available by : Seung C. Ahn

Download or read book Forecasting with Partial Least Squares When a Large Number of Predictors Are Available written by Seung C. Ahn and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider Partial Least Squares (PLS) estimation of a time-series forecasting model with the data containing a large number (T) of time series observations on each of a large number (N) of predictor variables. In the model, a subset or a whole set of the latent common factors in predictors are determinants of a single target variable to be forecasted. The factors relevant for forecasting the target variable, which we refer to as PLS factors, can be sequentially generated by a method called "Nonlinear Iterative Partial Least Squares" (NIPLS) algorithm. Two main findings from our asymptotic analysis are the following. First, the optimal number of the PLS factors for forecasting could be much smaller than the number of the common factors in the original predictor variables relevant for the target variable. Second, as more than the optimal number of PLS factors is used, the out-of-sample forecasting power of the factors could rather decrease while their in-sample explanatory power may increase. Our Monte Carlo simulation results confirm these asymptotic results. In addition, our simulation results indicate that unless very large samples are used, the out-of-sample forecasting power of the PLS factors is often higher when a smaller than the asymptotically optimal number of factors are used. We find that the out-of-sample forecasting power of the PLS factors often decreases as the second, third, and more factors are added, even if the asymptotically optimal number of the factors is greater than one.

Discovering Partial Least Squares with JMP

Author : Ian Cox
Publisher : SAS Institute
ISBN 13 : 1629590924
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (295 download)

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Book Synopsis Discovering Partial Least Squares with JMP by : Ian Cox

Download or read book Discovering Partial Least Squares with JMP written by Ian Cox and published by SAS Institute. This book was released on 2013-10 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using JMP statistical discovery software from SAS, Discovering Partial Least Squares with JMP explores Partial Least Squares and positions it within the more general context of multivariate analysis. This book motivates current and potential users of JMP to extend their analytical repertoire by embracing PLS. Dynamically interacting with JMP, you will develop confidence as you explore underlying concepts and work through the examples. The authors provide background and guidance to support and empower you on this journey.

Advanced Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-Sets

Author : Agostino Di Ciaccio
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642210376
Total Pages : 464 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-Sets by : Agostino Di Ciaccio

Download or read book Advanced Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-Sets written by Agostino Di Ciaccio and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-05 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The theme of the meeting was “Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-Sets”. In recent years there has been increasing interest in this subject; in fact a huge quantity of information is often available but standard statistical techniques are usually not well suited to managing this kind of data. The conference serves as an important meeting point for European researchers working on this topic and a number of European statistical societies participated in the organization of the event. The book includes 45 papers from a selection of the 156 papers accepted for presentation and discussed at the conference on “Advanced Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-sets.”

Practical Statistics for Data Scientists

Author : Peter Bruce
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1491952911
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (919 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Statistics for Data Scientists by : Peter Bruce

Download or read book Practical Statistics for Data Scientists written by Peter Bruce and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2017-05-10 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical methods are a key part of of data science, yet very few data scientists have any formal statistics training. Courses and books on basic statistics rarely cover the topic from a data science perspective. This practical guide explains how to apply various statistical methods to data science, tells you how to avoid their misuse, and gives you advice on what's important and what's not. Many data science resources incorporate statistical methods but lack a deeper statistical perspective. If you’re familiar with the R programming language, and have some exposure to statistics, this quick reference bridges the gap in an accessible, readable format. With this book, you’ll learn: Why exploratory data analysis is a key preliminary step in data science How random sampling can reduce bias and yield a higher quality dataset, even with big data How the principles of experimental design yield definitive answers to questions How to use regression to estimate outcomes and detect anomalies Key classification techniques for predicting which categories a record belongs to Statistical machine learning methods that “learn” from data Unsupervised learning methods for extracting meaning from unlabeled data

Empirical Asset Pricing

Author : Wayne Ferson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262039370
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Forecasting National Activity Using Lots of International Predictors

Author : Sandra Eickmeier
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting National Activity Using Lots of International Predictors by : Sandra Eickmeier

Download or read book Forecasting National Activity Using Lots of International Predictors written by Sandra Eickmeier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply "data-rich" factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many countries. The methods covered are principal components, targeted predictors, weighted principal components, partial least squares, elastic net and ridge regression. Using these methods, we assess the marginal predictive content of international data for New Zealand GDP growth. We find that exploiting a large number of international predictors can improve forecasts of our target variable, compared to more traditional models based on small datasets. This is in spite of New Zealand survey data capturing a substantial proportion of the predictive information in the international data. The largest forecasting accuracy gains from including international predictors are at longer forecast horizons. The forecasting performance achievable with the data-rich methods differs widely, with shrinkage methods and partial least squares performing best. We also assess the type of international data that contains the most predictive information for New Zealand growth over our sample.

Statistical Learning for Big Dependent Data

Author : Daniel Peña
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119417414
Total Pages : 562 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Learning for Big Dependent Data by : Daniel Peña

Download or read book Statistical Learning for Big Dependent Data written by Daniel Peña and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-03-16 with total page 562 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master advanced topics in the analysis of large, dynamically dependent datasets with this insightful resource Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data delivers a comprehensive presentation of the statistical and machine learning methods useful for analyzing and forecasting large and dynamically dependent data sets. The book presents automatic procedures for modelling and forecasting large sets of time series data. Beginning with some visualization tools, the book discusses procedures and methods for finding outliers, clusters, and other types of heterogeneity in big dependent data. It then introduces various dimension reduction methods, including regularization and factor models such as regularized Lasso in the presence of dynamical dependence and dynamic factor models. The book also covers other forecasting procedures, including index models, partial least squares, boosting, and now-casting. It further presents machine-learning methods, including neural network, deep learning, classification and regression trees and random forests. Finally, procedures for modelling and forecasting spatio-temporal dependent data are also presented. Throughout the book, the advantages and disadvantages of the methods discussed are given. The book uses real-world examples to demonstrate applications, including use of many R packages. Finally, an R package associated with the book is available to assist readers in reproducing the analyses of examples and to facilitate real applications. Analysis of Big Dependent Data includes a wide variety of topics for modeling and understanding big dependent data, like: New ways to plot large sets of time series An automatic procedure to build univariate ARMA models for individual components of a large data set Powerful outlier detection procedures for large sets of related time series New methods for finding the number of clusters of time series and discrimination methods , including vector support machines, for time series Broad coverage of dynamic factor models including new representations and estimation methods for generalized dynamic factor models Discussion on the usefulness of lasso with time series and an evaluation of several machine learning procedure for forecasting large sets of time series Forecasting large sets of time series with exogenous variables, including discussions of index models, partial least squares, and boosting. Introduction of modern procedures for modeling and forecasting spatio-temporal data Perfect for PhD students and researchers in business, economics, engineering, and science: Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data also belongs to the bookshelves of practitioners in these fields who hope to improve their understanding of statistical and machine learning methods for analyzing and forecasting big dependent data.

Multivariate Calibration

Author : Harald Martens
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471930471
Total Pages : 444 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Multivariate Calibration by : Harald Martens

Download or read book Multivariate Calibration written by Harald Martens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1992-08-07 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Multivariate Calibration Harald Martens, Chemist, Norwegian Food Research Institute, Aas, Norway and Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Norway Tormod Næs, Statistician, Norwegian Food Research Institute, Aas, Norway The aim of this inter-disciplinary book is to present an up-to-date view of multivariate calibration of analytical instruments, for use in research, development and routine laboratory and process operation. The book is intended to show practitioners in chemistry and technology how to extract the quantitative and understandable information embedded in non-selective, overwhelming and apparently useless measurements by multivariate data analysis. Multivariate calibration is the process of learning how to combine data from several channels, in order to overcome selectivity problems, gain new insight and allow automatic outlier detection. Multivariate calibration is the basis for the present success of high-speed Near-Infrared (NIR) diffuse spectroscopy of intact samples. But the technique is very general: it has shown similar advantages in, for instance, UV, Vis, and IR spectrophotometry, (transmittance, reflectance and fluorescence), for x-ray diffraction, NMR, MS, thermal analysis, chromatography (GC, HPLC) and for electrophoresis and image analysis (tomography, microscopy), as well as other techniques. The book is written at two levels: the main level is structured as a tutorial on the practical use of multivariate calibration techniques. It is intended for university courses and self-study for chemists and technologists, giving one complete and versatile approach, based mainly on data compression methodology in self-modelling PLS regression, with considerations of experimental design, data pre-processing and model validation. A second, more methodological, level is intended for statisticians and specialists in chemometrics. It compares several alternative calibration methods, validation approaches and ways to optimize the models. The book also outlines some cognitive changes needed in analytical chemistry, and suggests ways to overcome some communication problems between statistics and chemistry and technology.

Feature Engineering and Selection

Author : Max Kuhn
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351609467
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Feature Engineering and Selection by : Max Kuhn

Download or read book Feature Engineering and Selection written by Max Kuhn and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The process of developing predictive models includes many stages. Most resources focus on the modeling algorithms but neglect other critical aspects of the modeling process. This book describes techniques for finding the best representations of predictors for modeling and for nding the best subset of predictors for improving model performance. A variety of example data sets are used to illustrate the techniques along with R programs for reproducing the results.

Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors

Author : Rachida Ouysse
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors by : Rachida Ouysse

Download or read book Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors written by Rachida Ouysse and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the performance of Bayesian model averaging as a forecasting method for a large panel of time series and compare its performance to principal components regression (PCR). We show empirically that these forecasts are highly correlated implying similar mean-square forecast errors. Applied to forecasting Industrial production and inflation in the United States, we find that the set of variables deemed informative changes over time which suggest temporal instability due to collinearity and to the of Bayesian variable selection method to minor perturbations of the data. In terms of mean-squared forecast error, principal components based forecasts have a slight marginal advantage over BMA. However, this marginal edge of PCR in the average global out-of-sample performance hides important changes in the local forecasting power of the two approaches. An analysis of the Theil index indicates that the loss of performance of PCR is due mainly to its exuberant biases in matching the mean of the two series especially the inflation series. BMA forecasts series matches the first and second moments of the GDP and inflation series very well with practically zero biases and very low volatility. The fluctuation statistic that measures the relative local performance shows that BMA performed consistently better than PCR and the naive benchmark (random walk) over the period prior to 1985. Thereafter, the performance of both BMA and PCR was relatively modest compared to the naive benchmark.

Hands-On Machine Learning with R

Author : Brad Boehmke
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000730433
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Hands-On Machine Learning with R by : Brad Boehmke

Download or read book Hands-On Machine Learning with R written by Brad Boehmke and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-07 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hands-on Machine Learning with R provides a practical and applied approach to learning and developing intuition into today’s most popular machine learning methods. This book serves as a practitioner’s guide to the machine learning process and is meant to help the reader learn to apply the machine learning stack within R, which includes using various R packages such as glmnet, h2o, ranger, xgboost, keras, and others to effectively model and gain insight from their data. The book favors a hands-on approach, providing an intuitive understanding of machine learning concepts through concrete examples and just a little bit of theory. Throughout this book, the reader will be exposed to the entire machine learning process including feature engineering, resampling, hyperparameter tuning, model evaluation, and interpretation. The reader will be exposed to powerful algorithms such as regularized regression, random forests, gradient boosting machines, deep learning, generalized low rank models, and more! By favoring a hands-on approach and using real word data, the reader will gain an intuitive understanding of the architectures and engines that drive these algorithms and packages, understand when and how to tune the various hyperparameters, and be able to interpret model results. By the end of this book, the reader should have a firm grasp of R’s machine learning stack and be able to implement a systematic approach for producing high quality modeling results. Features: · Offers a practical and applied introduction to the most popular machine learning methods. · Topics covered include feature engineering, resampling, deep learning and more. · Uses a hands-on approach and real world data.

Partial Least Squares Path Modeling

Author : Hengky Latan
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319640690
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Partial Least Squares Path Modeling by : Hengky Latan

Download or read book Partial Least Squares Path Modeling written by Hengky Latan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited book presents the recent developments in partial least squares-path modeling (PLS-PM) and provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the most advanced research related to PLS-PM. The first section of this book emphasizes the basic concepts and extensions of the PLS-PM method. The second section discusses the methodological issues that are the focus of the recent development of the PLS-PM method. The third part discusses the real world application of the PLS-PM method in various disciplines. The contributions from expert authors in the field of PLS focus on topics such as the factor-based PLS-PM, the perfect match between a model and a mode, quantile composite-based path modeling (QC-PM), ordinal consistent partial least squares (OrdPLSc), non-symmetrical composite-based path modeling (NSCPM), modern view for mediation analysis in PLS-PM, a multi-method approach for identifying and treating unobserved heterogeneity, multigroup analysis (PLS-MGA), the assessment of the common method bias, non-metric PLS with categorical indicators, evaluation of the efficiency and accuracy of model misspecification and bootstrap parameter recovery in PLS-PM, CB-SEM, and the Bollen-Stine methods and importance-performance map analysis (IPMA) for nonlinear relationships. This book will be useful for researchers and practitioners interested in the latest advances in PLS-PM as well as master and Ph.D. students in a variety of disciplines using the PLS-PM method for their projects.

Applied Predictive Modeling

Author : Max Kuhn
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461468493
Total Pages : 595 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Predictive Modeling by : Max Kuhn

Download or read book Applied Predictive Modeling written by Max Kuhn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-17 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Predictive Modeling covers the overall predictive modeling process, beginning with the crucial steps of data preprocessing, data splitting and foundations of model tuning. The text then provides intuitive explanations of numerous common and modern regression and classification techniques, always with an emphasis on illustrating and solving real data problems. The text illustrates all parts of the modeling process through many hands-on, real-life examples, and every chapter contains extensive R code for each step of the process. This multi-purpose text can be used as an introduction to predictive models and the overall modeling process, a practitioner’s reference handbook, or as a text for advanced undergraduate or graduate level predictive modeling courses. To that end, each chapter contains problem sets to help solidify the covered concepts and uses data available in the book’s R package. This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.

Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data

Author : Peter Fuleky
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030311503
Total Pages : 716 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data by : Peter Fuleky

Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

A Medium-N Approach to Macroeconomic Forecasting

Author : Gianluca Cubadda
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis A Medium-N Approach to Macroeconomic Forecasting by : Gianluca Cubadda

Download or read book A Medium-N Approach to Macroeconomic Forecasting written by Gianluca Cubadda and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series in a framework where the number of predictors, N, is too large to apply traditional regression models but not sufficiently large to resort to statistical inference based on double asymptotics. Our interest is motivated by a body of empirical research suggesting that popular data-rich prediction methods perform best when N ranges from 20 to 50. In order to accomplish our goal, we examine the conditions under which partial least squares and principal component regression provide consistent estimates of a stable autoregressive distributed lag model as only the number of observations, T, diverges. We show both by simulations and empirical applications that the proposed methods compare well to models that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting.

Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) Using R

Author : Joseph F. Hair Jr.
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030805190
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) Using R by : Joseph F. Hair Jr.

Download or read book Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) Using R written by Joseph F. Hair Jr. and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-11-03 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) has become a standard approach for analyzing complex inter-relationships between observed and latent variables. Researchers appreciate the many advantages of PLS-SEM such as the possibility to estimate very complex models and the method’s flexibility in terms of data requirements and measurement specification. This practical open access guide provides a step-by-step treatment of the major choices in analyzing PLS path models using R, a free software environment for statistical computing, which runs on Windows, macOS, and UNIX computer platforms. Adopting the R software’s SEMinR package, which brings a friendly syntax to creating and estimating structural equation models, each chapter offers a concise overview of relevant topics and metrics, followed by an in-depth description of a case study. Simple instructions give readers the “how-tos” of using SEMinR to obtain solutions and document their results. Rules of thumb in every chapter provide guidance on best practices in the application and interpretation of PLS-SEM.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman

Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.