Forecasting Volcanic Activity Using an Event Tree Analysis System and Logistic Regression

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (836 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volcanic Activity Using an Event Tree Analysis System and Logistic Regression by : William N. Junek

Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Activity Using an Event Tree Analysis System and Logistic Regression written by William N. Junek and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasts of short term volcanic activity are generated using an event tree process that is driven by a set of empirical statistical models derived through logistic regression. Each of the logistic models are constructed from a sparse and geographically diverse dataset that was assembled from a collection of historic volcanic unrest episodes. The dataset consists of monitoring measurements (e.g. seismic), source modeling results, and historic eruption information. Incorporating this data into a single set of models provides a simple mechanism for simultaneously accounting for the geophysical changes occurring within the volcano and the historic behavior of analog volcanoes. A bootstrapping analysis of the training dataset allowed for the estimation of robust logistic model coefficients. Probabilities generated from the logistic models increase with positive modeling results, escalating seismicity, and high eruption frequency. The cross validation process produced a series of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with areas ranging between 0.78 - 0.81, which indicate the algorithm has good predictive capabilities. In addition, ROC curves also allowed for the determination of a false positive rate and optimum detection threshold for each stage of the algorithm. The results demonstrate the logistic models are highly transportable and can compete with, and in some cases outperform, non-transportable empirical models trained with site specific information. The incorporation of source modeling results into the event tree's decision making process has begun the transition of volcano monitoring applications from simple mechanized pattern recognition algorithms to a physical model based forecasting system.

The Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions

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Publisher : iUniverse
ISBN 13 : 9780595412600
Total Pages : 140 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (126 download)

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Book Synopsis The Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions by : R. B. Trombley

Download or read book The Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions written by R. B. Trombley and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 2006 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting the time, place, and character of a volcanic eruption is one of the major goals of volcanology. It is also one of the most difficult goals to achieve. Until recently, people living in a volcano's shadow had little help anticipating an eruption. A major volcanic event might strike with no warning at all. In the past 300 years, volcanic eruptions, most of them unexpected, have killed more than 250,000 people. In 2000, experts estimated that 500 million people were living in areas at risk from catastrophic volcanic eruptions. This book describes the strides that have made in eruption forecasting in recent years and explores why accurately predicting volcanic events remains difficult. Based on the methodologies in this book, Eruption Pro 10.6, to our knowledge, it is the only software programme of its type anywhere in the world. Eruption Pro 10.6 performs analysis on current available volcano eruption data from both historical and current available eruption data, near real-time measurement data including, seismic, deformation, thermal, frequency of eruption analysis, solar & lunar influences, crater lake temperature (if applicable), COSPEC, & statistical procedures. The newest version also accounts for, albeit very small, contributions due to lunar and solar influences.

Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128180838
Total Pages : 710 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters by : Paolo Papale

Download or read book Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters written by Paolo Papale and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-09-29 with total page 710 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters expands and complements the subject and themes in Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters. Together, the two volumes represent an exhaustive compendium on volcanic hazards, risks, and disasters. Volume two presents a comprehensive picture of the volcano dynamics relevant for volcanic hazard forecasts. It also includes case studies of the associated risks and aspects like operational volcano observatory responses, communication before and across volcanic crises, emergency planning, social science aspects, and resilience from volcanic disasters. Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters takes a geoscientific approach to the topic while integrating the social and economic issues related to volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters. Features the expertise of top volcanologists, seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists Presents the latest research - including case studies of prominent volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters - on causality, economic and social impacts, and preparedness and mitigation Includes numerous tables, maps, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs to aid in grasping key concept

Volcanic Unrest

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331958412X
Total Pages : 313 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Volcanic Unrest by : Joachim Gottsmann

Download or read book Volcanic Unrest written by Joachim Gottsmann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-18 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.

Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions

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Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 1789840295
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (898 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions by : Angelo Paone

Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions written by Angelo Paone and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-04-22 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The chapters presented in this International Volcanological Special Issue consider the characteristic features of a single volcano and/or a number of volcanoes worldwide (Jos and Biu Plateau volcanic provinces, Nigeria; Kachchh Rift Zone, Gujarat, India; Guamsan Caldera, Cheongsong, Korea; Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Napoli, Italy) in terms of future volcanic activity. The technical methods used are wide, innovative, as well as classic and reflect the knowledge presented in each chapter. The last chapter, however, deals with a new conceptual and methodological approach for the evaluation of volcanic risk. All these volcanoes (except Somma-Vesuvius volcano) are poorly studied so they deserve more attention, which is the goal of this volcanological book. Further studies are welcome to deepen the knowledge of each of the volcanoes presented.

Statistics in Volcanology

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Publisher : Geological Society of London
ISBN 13 : 9781862392083
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics in Volcanology by : Heidy M. Mader

Download or read book Statistics in Volcanology written by Heidy M. Mader and published by Geological Society of London. This book was released on 2006 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.

The Impact of Open Science for Evaluation of Volcanic Hazards

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Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 288966757X
Total Pages : 115 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (896 download)

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Book Synopsis The Impact of Open Science for Evaluation of Volcanic Hazards by : Elisa Trasatti

Download or read book The Impact of Open Science for Evaluation of Volcanic Hazards written by Elisa Trasatti and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasting Volcanic Events

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Publisher : Elsevier Publishing Company
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 672 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volcanic Events by : Haroun Tazieff

Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Events written by Haroun Tazieff and published by Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1983 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107111757
Total Pages : 409 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk by : Susan C. Loughlin

Download or read book Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk written by Susan C. Loughlin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazards and risk, with detailed regional profiles, for the disaster risk reduction community. Also available as Open Access.

Observing the Volcano World

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319440977
Total Pages : 771 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Observing the Volcano World by : Carina J. Fearnley

Download or read book Observing the Volcano World written by Carina J. Fearnley and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-13 with total page 771 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book provides a comprehensive overview of volcanic crisis research, the goal being to establish ways of successfully applying volcanology in practice and to identify areas that need to be addressed for future progress. It shows how volcano crises are managed in practice, and helps to establish best practices. Consequently the book brings together authors from all over the globe who work with volcanoes, ranging from observatory volcanologists, disaster practitioners and government officials to NGO-based and government practitioners to address three key aspects of volcanic crises. First, the book explores the unique nature of volcanic hazards, which makes them a particularly challenging threat to forecast and manage, due in part to their varying spatial and temporal characteristics. Second, it presents lessons learned on how to best manage volcanic events based on a number of crises that have shaped our understanding of volcanic hazards and crises management. Third, it discusses the diverse and wide-ranging aspects of communication involved in crises, which merge old practices and new technologies to accommodate an increasingly challenging and globalised world. The information and insights presented here are essential to tapping established knowledge, moving towards more robust volcanic crises management, and understanding how the volcanic world is perceived from a range of standpoints and contexts around the globe.

Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing

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Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309454158
Total Pages : 135 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

High-Performance Computing in Solid Earth Geohazards: Progresses, Achievements and Challenges for a Safer World

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Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 2832523056
Total Pages : 185 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis High-Performance Computing in Solid Earth Geohazards: Progresses, Achievements and Challenges for a Safer World by : Alice-Agnes Gabriel

Download or read book High-Performance Computing in Solid Earth Geohazards: Progresses, Achievements and Challenges for a Safer World written by Alice-Agnes Gabriel and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-05-09 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Volcanoes of the World

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Volcanoes of the World by : Tom Simkin

Download or read book Volcanoes of the World written by Tom Simkin and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters

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Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0123964768
Total Pages : 532 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (239 download)

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Book Synopsis Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters by : Paolo Papale

Download or read book Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters written by Paolo Papale and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-10-29 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters provides you with the latest scientific developments in volcano and volcanic research, including causality, impacts, preparedness, risk analysis, planning, response, recovery, and the economics of loss and remediation. It takes a geoscientific approach to the topic while integrating the social and economic issues related to volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters. Throughout the book case studies are presented of historically relevant volcanic and seismic hazards and disasters as well as recent catastrophes, such as Chile’s Puyehue volcano eruption in June 2011. Puts the expertise of top volcanologists, seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists selected by a world-renowned editorial board at your fingertips Presents you with the latest research—including case studies of prominent volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters—on causality, economic impacts, fatality rates, and earthquake preparedness and mitigation Numerous tables, maps, diagrams, illustrations, photographs, and video captures of hazardous processes support you in grasping key concepts

Logic of Statistical Inference

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1316571769
Total Pages : 229 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (165 download)

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Book Synopsis Logic of Statistical Inference by : Ian Hacking

Download or read book Logic of Statistical Inference written by Ian Hacking and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-26 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of Ian Hacking's earliest publications, this book showcases his early ideas on the central concepts and questions surrounding statistical reasoning. He explores the basic principles of statistical reasoning and tests them, both at a philosophical level and in terms of their practical consequences for statisticians. Presented in a fresh twenty-first-century series livery, and including a specially commissioned preface written by Jan-Willem Romeijn, illuminating its enduring importance and relevance to philosophical enquiry, Hacking's influential and original work has been revived for a new generation of readers.

Utilizing AI and Machine Learning for Natural Disaster Management

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Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (693 download)

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Book Synopsis Utilizing AI and Machine Learning for Natural Disaster Management by : Satishkumar, D.

Download or read book Utilizing AI and Machine Learning for Natural Disaster Management written by Satishkumar, D. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2024-04-29 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Acute events of natural origin, spanning atmospheric, biological, geophysical, hydrologic, and oceanographic realms, persistently menace societies globally. Approximately 160 million people annually bear the brunt of these disasters, with certain regions facing disproportionate impacts. The lack of predictability intensifies the challenge, creating intercommunal capacity gaps and amplifying the dire consequences. Utilizing AI and Machine Learning for Natural Disaster Management provides instances of ML in predicting earthquakes. By leveraging seismic data, AI systems can analyze magnitude and patterns, providing invaluable insights to forecast earthquake occurrences and aftershocks. Similarly, the book unveils the potential of ML in simulating floods by recording and analyzing rainfall patterns from previous years. The predictive power extends to hurricanes, where data on wind speed, rainfall, temperature, and moisture converge to anticipate future occurrences, potentially saving millions in property damage.

The 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak Vent, Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak Vent, Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska by : Terry E. C. Keith

Download or read book The 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak Vent, Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska written by Terry E. C. Keith and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: