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Forecasting The Demand For Privatized Transport
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Book Synopsis Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport by : Lourdes Trujillo
Download or read book Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport written by Lourdes Trujillo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation.
Book Synopsis Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport by : Lourdes Trujillo
Download or read book Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport written by Lourdes Trujillo and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation. Forecasting has long been a challenge and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology and software should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments and regulators avoid good demand modeling out of lack of conviction that theory and models can do better than the "old hands" of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $100-200 million, a cost of $100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees or insurance with their forecasts to cover significant gaps between forecasts and reality. This paper - a product of the Governance, Regulation, and Finance Division, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to increase understanding of infrastructure regulation.
Book Synopsis Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting by : Luis G. Willumsen
Download or read book Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting written by Luis G. Willumsen and published by . This book was released on 2014-07-26 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demand and revenue forecasting for transport concessions has an inconsistent track record. There are several reasons for this: a possible optimism bias, the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, limited data and a poor choice of modelling tools. Therefore any better approach must acknowledge these constraints from the outset and be adapted to deal with revenue risk. This book addresses these issues on the basis of 20 years of international experience producing Traffic and Revenue projections for a range of transport concessions: Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, LRT, BRT, Metro and Rail projects with involvement of the private sector. It includes an additional chapter on Congestion Charging. The book is divided into three parts. Part I covers the context for the participation of the private sector and the requirements posed for demand forecasting. Part II is more technical and describes the strengths and limitations of the modelling tools used in both conventional and Traffic and Revenue forecasting models; it deals with issues like induced traffic, destination, mode and time of travel choice and, of course, discusses assignment in detail; willingness to pay is central to this part. Part III covers the practice of producing forecasts for different types of concessions: sound assumptions, modelling price and means of payment, growth models, treatment of congestion and travel time reliability, optimal pricing, annualisation, inflation and tariff escalation. This part also deals with the critical issue of future uncertainty with suggestions for peer reviews, sensitivity test, risk analysis and scenario planning. The book should be of interest to professionals working in procuring authorities preparing a transport concession, consortia bidding for such projects and financial specialists seeking to get a better understanding of the techniques used for Traffic and Revenue forecasting. Planners developing projects where price and revenue risk are important will also gain useful insights. The text contains a large number of tables and figures, all in colour, and suggestions on writing a good Final Report. A website, www.bettertandr.com, complements the book. About the author Dr. Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has 15 years of experience in transport teaching and research plus two decades producing traffic and revenue projections for more than 50 different private sector projects in over 30 countries. He is co-author of Modelling Transport, a Wiley text describing the state of the art in the field and now in its fourth edition; he has also made some helpful contributions to modelling and forecasting techniques. He is currently an independent consultant and a Visiting Professor at University College London.
Book Synopsis Private Sector Participation in Light Rail-Light Metro Transit Initiatives by : Cledan Mandri-Perrott
Download or read book Private Sector Participation in Light Rail-Light Metro Transit Initiatives written by Cledan Mandri-Perrott and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-01-21 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to help governments and public authorities to establish effective light rail-light metro transit (LRMT) systems, and focuses on use of Public Private Participation (PPP) arrangements. Rather than identify a single approach, we present options and discuss practical issues related to preparing and implementing new LRMT PPP schemes. The approach is focused on providing information that can be used to make informed decisions, adapted to local policy and objectives. The material presented is intended as a practical guide to developing LRMT PPPs in both developed and developing countries. This work endeavors to provide answers to readers questions regarding how to successfully incorporate private sector participation in LRMT with a lesser emphasis on why LRMT and the private sector may be beneficial. The primary focus of this text is guiding the reader from design through to project implementation. It starts from the premise that underlying transport policy decisions will have already been made and that LRMT has already been identified as the appropriate transport solution. We have included some limited discussion of policy and technical issues where these directly impact the LRMT PPP approach. The approach is presented in nine sections, and in preparing it the author drew on current international LRMT PPP experience, through a series of interviews and case studies. The sections covered are: 1. Urban Transport and Light Rail/Light Metro Transit (LRMT) 2. Selected Technical Aspects 3. Incorporating Private Sector Participation in LRMT Initiatives 4. Understanding and Allocating Risk 5. Specifications, Oversight and Performance Management 6. Funding and finance 7. Developing a PPP Agreement 8. Procurement 9. Conclusions and Recommendations
Book Synopsis The Economics of Urban Transportation by : Kenneth A. Small
Download or read book The Economics of Urban Transportation written by Kenneth A. Small and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2007-10-18 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely new edition of Kenneth A. Small’s seminal textbook Urban Transportation Economics, co-authored with Erik T. Verhoef, has been fully updated, covering new areas such as parking policies, reliability of travel times, and the privatization of transportation services, as well as updated treatments of congestion modelling, environmental costs, and transit subsidies. Rigorous in approach and making use of real-world data and econometric techniques, it contains case studies from a range of countries including congestion charging in Norway, Singapore and the UK, light rail in the Netherlands and freeway tolls in the US. Small and Verhoef cover all basic topics needed for any application of economics to transportation: forecasting the demand for transportation services under alternative policies measuring all the costs including those incurred by users setting prices under practical constraints choosing and evaluating investments in basic facilities designing ways in which the private and public sectors interact to provide services. This book will be of great interest to students with basic calculus and some knowledge of economic theory who are engaged with transportation economics, planning and, or engineering, travel demand analysis, and many related fields. It will also be essential reading for researchers in any aspect of urban transportation.
Book Synopsis Public Private Partnerships Renegotiations in Transportation by : Carlos Oliveira Cruz
Download or read book Public Private Partnerships Renegotiations in Transportation written by Carlos Oliveira Cruz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-05-13 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a growing interest in Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), particularly in infrastructure and public services. Under the scope of PPPs, renegotiations are becoming more relevant, as empirical evidence suggests that most PPP projects are inevitably renegotiated, i.e., the original contract needs to be adapted to new and unforeseen circumstances. Renegotiations have a substantial impact on the contract and performance of a PPP and usually represent significant costs for users and taxpayers. However, very little is known about the management and, mainly, the process of renegotiating that will, very likely, occur. This book provides a set of case-studies of PPP renegotiations in the transport sector. The authors illustrate the Portuguese experience, a country that has been using PPP extensively, particularly in transport. The case studies provide an extensive and detailed analysis on each aspect of the project and the renegotiation. What drives renegotiations? Why are some projects more renegotiated than others? What are the results? How can the performance of renegotiation processes be improved? These and other questions provide the basis for the discussions in this book. The novelty and value of the book come mainly from the extent of information available. Each case-study deals with these questions in much more detail than what is common in the case-studies approach.
Author :National Cooperative Highway Research Program Publisher :Transportation Research Board ISBN 13 :9780309060592 Total Pages :176 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (65 download)
Book Synopsis A Guidebook for Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand by : National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Download or read book A Guidebook for Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand written by National Cooperative Highway Research Program and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 1997 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Transportation Demand Projections and Forecasts by : Richard Lawson
Download or read book Transportation Demand Projections and Forecasts written by Richard Lawson and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :European Conference of Ministers of Transport Publisher :OECD Publishing ISBN 13 :9282105199 Total Pages :172 pages Book Rating :4.2/5 (821 download)
Book Synopsis ECMT Round Tables Review of Demand Models Forecast-Recorded Traffic Comparisons for Urban and Intercity Transport: Report of the Fifty-Eighth Round Table on Transport Economics Held in Paris on 25-26 June 1981 by : European Conference of Ministers of Transport
Download or read book ECMT Round Tables Review of Demand Models Forecast-Recorded Traffic Comparisons for Urban and Intercity Transport: Report of the Fifty-Eighth Round Table on Transport Economics Held in Paris on 25-26 June 1981 written by European Conference of Ministers of Transport and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 1982-01-01 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Round Table is an assessment of the attempts made since the early sixties to model passenger and freight transport demand.
Book Synopsis Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement by : Keith M. Chase
Download or read book Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement written by Keith M. Chase and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2013 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " TRB's second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C20-RR-1: Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement documents the state of the practice for freight demand modeling. The report also explores the fundamental changes in freight modeling, and data and data collection that could help public and private sector decision-makers make better and more informed decisions. SHRP 2 Capacity Project C20, which produced Report S2-C20-RR-1, also produced the following items: A Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan, which outlines seven strategic objectives that are designed to serve as the basis for future innovation in freight travel demand forecasting and data, and to guide both near- and long-term implementation: A speaker's kit, which is intended to be a "starter" set of materials for use in presenting the freight modeling and data improvement strategic plan to a group of interested professionals; and; A 2010 Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Symposium " -- publisher's description
Book Synopsis Handbook on Public Private Partnerships in Transportation, Vol II by : Simon Hakim
Download or read book Handbook on Public Private Partnerships in Transportation, Vol II written by Simon Hakim and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-30 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Second in a two-volume set, this book discusses the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in global transportation infrastructure, specifically focusing on roads, bridges, and parking. To provide vital services in an era of shrinking government budgets, public-private partnerships have become an increasingly important part of travel infrastructure worldwide. This book describes and analyses the structure of various models of PPPs in several countries, evaluating their effectiveness, and drawing policy implications for future use. The chapters were written by leading international researchers and practitioners in the transportation field where each chapter is a case study on the adoption, implementation, and outcome of transportation services. Taken together, these diverse case studies provide an integrated framework for evaluating, using PPPs, and suggesting policy implications to both the public and the private sectors in transportation. Providing rigorous empirical analysis of PPPs in transportation, this volume will be of interest to researchers in public administration, political science, public choice, and economics as well as practitioners and policymakers involved in establishing and monitoring PPPs in transportation.
Book Synopsis Modeling of Transport Demand by : V.A Profillidis
Download or read book Modeling of Transport Demand written by V.A Profillidis and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-23 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling of Transport Demand explains the mechanisms of transport demand, from analysis to calculation and forecasting. Packed with strategies for forecasting future demand for all transport modes, the book helps readers assess the validity and accuracy of demand forecasts. Forecasting and evaluating transport demand is an essential task of transport professionals and researchers that affects the design, extension, operation, and maintenance of all transport infrastructures. Accurate demand forecasts are necessary for companies and government entities when planning future fleet size, human resource needs, revenues, expenses, and budgets. The operational and planning skills provided in Modeling of Transport Demand help readers solve the problems they face on a daily basis. Modeling of Transport Demand is written for researchers, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing qualitative models (based on executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing, survey methods) or quantitative ones (based on statistical, time series, econometric, gravity, artificial neural network, and fuzzy methods) in choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transport applications. Presents the most recent and relevant findings and research - both at theoretical and practical levels - of transport demand Provides a theoretical analysis and formulations that are clearly presented for ease of understanding Covers analysis for all modes of transportation Includes case studies that present the most appropriate formulas and methods for finding solutions and evaluating results
Book Synopsis Going Private by : Jose Gomez-Ibanez
Download or read book Going Private written by Jose Gomez-Ibanez and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade many countries turned to private sources to provide services formerly offered by public agencies. Europeans, particularly the British and the French, were leaders in this movement. Developing countries also experimented extensively with privatization in the 1980s, with varying degrees of success. Because governments around the world are heavily involved in transportation, it is a natural focus of privatization experiments and in many ways has been at the cutting edge. Going Private examines the diverse privatization experiences of transportation services and facilities. Cases are drawn from the United States, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. Since almost every country has experimented to some degree with highway and bus privatization, the authors focus particularly on these services, although they also discuss urban rail transit and airports. Highways and buses, they explain, encompass all three of the most common and basic forms of privatization: the sale of an existing state-owned enterprise; use of private, rather than public, financing and management for new infrastructure development; and contracting out to private vendors public services previously provided by government employees. After thoroughly examining these services and discussing the motives for, and objections to, privatization, the authors look at the prospects for privatization in other sectors and industries. They assess those circumstances in which privatization is most likely to succeed and those in which it is most likely to fail, for political as well as economic reasons. The authors conclude that privatization involves many political and social as well as economic dimensions. Privatization is usually not simply a matter of efficiency improvements or capital augmentation but also involves such deeply imbedded societal concerns as equity, income transfers, environmental problems, and attitudes toward taxation and the role of government.
Book Synopsis Private Sector Investment in Infrastructure by : Jeffrey Delmon
Download or read book Private Sector Investment in Infrastructure written by Jeffrey Delmon and published by Kluwer Law International B.V.. This book was released on 2015-10-28 with total page 870 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment in infrastructure is critical to economic growth, quality of life, poverty reduction, access to education, good quality healthcare, and achieving many of the goals of a robust and dynamic economy. However, infrastructure is difficult for the public sector to get right. This remarkably insightful and enormously useful book, now in its third edition, shows how the private sector (through public–private partnerships – PPP) can provide more efficient procurement through cheaper, faster, and better quality; refocus infrastructure services on consumer satisfaction and life cycle maintenance; place the financial burden of providing infrastructure on consumers rather than taxpayers; and provide new sources of investment, in particular through limited recourse debt (i.e., project financing). Taking the particular challenges associated with PPP fully into account. this book provides a practical guide to PPP in all the following ways and more: - how governments can enable and encourage PPP; - how PPP financing works; - what PPP contractual structures look like; and - most importantly, how PPP risk allocation works in practice. Specific discussion of each infrastructure sector is provided. Lawyers and business people, civil engineers, economic development officials and specialists, banking and insurance professionals, and academics will all find the ground well covered in this book, as well as new ground broken.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :1776 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (42 download)
Book Synopsis Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1972 by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations
Download or read book Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1972 written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 1776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1972, Hearings. . . 92d Congress, 1st Session by : United States. Congress. House Appropriations
Download or read book Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1972, Hearings. . . 92d Congress, 1st Session written by United States. Congress. House Appropriations and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 1206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Journal of Transportation and Statistics by :
Download or read book Journal of Transportation and Statistics written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
