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Forecasting Prices And Excess Returns In The Housing Market
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Book Synopsis Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market by : Karl E. Case
Download or read book Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market written by Karl E. Case and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U. S. market for homes appears not to be efficient. A number of information variables predict housing price changes and excess returns of housing relative to debt over the succeeding year. Price changes observed over one year tend to continue for one more year in the same direction. Construction cost divided by price, the change in per capita real income, the change in adult population are all positively related to price changes or excess returns over the subsequent year. The results are based on time-series cross section regressions with quarterly data 1970-1 to 1987-3 and for cities Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Prices and Excess in the Housing Market by : Karl E. Case
Download or read book Forecasting Prices and Excess in the Housing Market written by Karl E. Case and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-24 with total page 1386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis Measuring and Explaining House Price Developments by : Paul de Vries
Download or read book Measuring and Explaining House Price Developments written by Paul de Vries and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study discusses ways of measuring and explaining the development of house prices. The goal of the research underpinning this dissertation was to develop a methodological framework for studying these developments. This framework relates, first, to correcting for changes in the composition of dwellings and, second, to the fundamentals of the price development. Using the weighted repeat sales method and sale price appraisal ratio (SPAR) method, house price indexes were developed for the Netherlands. Both the Dutch land registry office and Statistics Netherlands publish the SPAR based house price index monthly. To explain and predict changes in prices, a house price model is presented. As suggested in literature on western housing markets, the Dutch house price developments can be explained by demand-oriented short-run term variables and a long-run term variable.
Download or read book Asset Pricing written by Hsien-hsing Liao and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2003-02-10 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real estate finance is a fast-developing area where top quality research is in great demand. In the US, the real estate market is worth about US$4 trillion, and the REITs market about US$200 billion; tens of thousands of real estate professionals are working in this area. The market overseas could be considerably larger, especially in Asia.Given the rapidly growing real estate securities industry, this book fills an important gap in current real estate research and teaching. It is an ideal reference for investment professionals as well as senior MBA and PhD students.
Book Synopsis Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market by : Dean H. Gatzlaff
Download or read book Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market written by Dean H. Gatzlaff and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the influence that unexpected inflation has on the reported time pattern in housing returns. Two alternative models of expected inflation are used to study its effect: a rational expectations model and an adaptive expectations model. Findings indicate that both estimates of unexpected inflation are positively correlated with excess returns to housing. If inflation expectations are assumed to have been adaptive during the 1970's and early 1980's, serial correlation in the excess returns is shown to be greatly diminished when adjusted to control for the return component associated with unexpected inflation. However, substantial inertia in the pattern of the adjusted return series remains. Under this scenario, profitable trading strategies are found to be available only to buyers who need to purchase additional housing services, and are not constrained by the time of purchase.
Download or read book Journal of Housing Research written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices by : OECD
Download or read book Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook provides, for the first time, comprehensive guidelines for the compilation of Residential Property Price Indexes and explains in depth the methods and best practices used to calculate an RPPI.
Book Synopsis A Primer on U.S. Housing Markets and Housing Policy by : Richard K. Green
Download or read book A Primer on U.S. Housing Markets and Housing Policy written by Richard K. Green and published by The Urban Insitute. This book was released on 2003 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first book that explains the economics of housing policy for a general audience. Planners, government officials, and public policy students will find that the economic perspective is a very powerful and useful way to examine these issues. The authors provide a broad review of the market for housing services in the U.S., including a conceptual framework, an overview of housing demand and supply, methods for measuring prices and quantities, and sources of basic data on markets. They cover housing programs and polices, and offer answers to policy questions that are of current interest. The book has been field-tested in graduate and undergraduate courses in urban and housing economics at the University of Wisconsin, the University of California--Berkeley, The University of Pennsylvania, and others. This book is also sure to be useful to policymakers, advocates, economists, and anyone interested in a clear picture of how housing markets function. Published in cooperation with the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA).
Book Synopsis Forecasting US Home Prices with Neural Network and Fuzzy Methods by : Pejman Bahramian
Download or read book Forecasting US Home Prices with Neural Network and Fuzzy Methods written by Pejman Bahramian and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2015-04-14 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Housing prices can be seen as an important tool affecting business cycles via its impact on investment and consumption spending. Also, local specifications allow for differences in regional business cycles.Recent studies have shown that there is a link between the housing market and economic activity. Also, they suggest that house-price fluctuations lead to real activity, inflation, or both. Therefore the existence of good model to forecast is very crucial for policy makers. Good policy requires that first identification of relationship for data (linear or non _linear) because it can affect not only housing prices rather all the economy.Research evidence shows that for any system with non-linear instability patterns such as the market for housing, the utilization of the ANN methodology serve properly. Therefore, in order to elucidate the non-linearity in the housing market, this book develops a new framework for the neural network and fuzzy methods, and pioneers their application to the recursive forecasting techniques
Book Synopsis Investing Amid Low Expected Returns by : Antti Ilmanen
Download or read book Investing Amid Low Expected Returns written by Antti Ilmanen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-04-12 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elevate your game in the face of challenging market conditions with this eye-opening guide to portfolio management Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices. In this book, readers will also find: The common investor responses so far to the low expected return challenge Extensive empirical evidence on the critical ingredients of an effective portfolio: major asset class premia, illiquidity premia, style premia, and alpha Discussions of the pros and cons of illiquid investments, factor investing, ESG investing, risk mitigation strategies, and market timing Coverage of the whole top-down investment process – throughout the book endorsing humility in tactical forecasting and boldness in diversification Ideal for institutional and active individual investors, Investing Amid Low Expected Returns is a timeless resource that enables investing with serenity even in harsher financial conditions.
Book Synopsis Real Estate Finance by : Wolfgang Breuer
Download or read book Real Estate Finance written by Wolfgang Breuer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-08 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This special issue offers an interesting overview of the status quo of (German) research in real estate finance. It might also contribute to real estate research moving from a research niche closer to the center of academic interest.
Book Synopsis An Econometric Model of the Urban Opportunity Structure by : George C. Galster
Download or read book An Econometric Model of the Urban Opportunity Structure written by George C. Galster and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1998 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using an extensive database for the nation's 100 largest cities, this report examines the relationships among the housing, mortgage, and labor markets; the local public sector; household location patterns; and crime, dropping out of school, and out-of-wedlock childbearing. In addition to its comprehensiveness, this is also the first work to examine how underserved areas, as defined by HUD, interact with the various components of the opportunity structure. Includes 3 appendices: a glossary of variables; estimation of housing price indexes; and reduced form estimates (standardized coefficients).
Book Synopsis The Us Housing Market by : Hany Guirguis
Download or read book The Us Housing Market written by Hany Guirguis and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The US housing market has experienced significant cyclical volatility over the last twenty-five years due to major structural changes and economic fluctuations. In addition, the housing market is generally considered to be weak form inefficient. Houses are relatively illiquid, exceptionally heterogeneous, and are associated with large transactions costs. As such, past research has shown that it is possible to predict, at least partially, the time path of housing prices. The ability to predict housing prices is important such that investors can make better asset allocation decisions, including the pricing and underwriting of mortgages. Most of the prior studies examining the US housing market have employed constant coefficent approaches to forecast house price movements. However, this approach is not optimal as an examination of data reveals substantial sub-sample parameter instability. To account for the parameter instability, we employ alternative estimation methodologies where the estimated parameters are allowed to vary over time. The results provide strong empirical evidence in favor of utilizing the rolling Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) Model and the Kalman Filter with an Autoregressive Presentation (KAR) for the parameters' time variation. Lastly, we provide out-of-sample forecasts and demonstrate the precision of our approach.
Book Synopsis The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform by : Martin Feldstein
Download or read book The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 481 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social security is the largest and perhaps the most popular program run by the federal government. Given the projected increase in both individual life expectancy and sheer number of retirees, however, the current system faces an eventual overload. Alternative proposals have emerged, ranging from reductions in future benefits to a rise in taxrevenue to various forms of investment-based personal retirement accounts. As this volume suggests, the distributional consequences of these proposals are substantially different and may disproportionately affect those groups who depend on social security to avoid poverty in old age. Together, these studies persuasively show that appropriately designed investment-based social security reforms can effectively reduce the long-term burden of an aging society on future taxpayers, increase the expected future income of retirees, and mitigate poverty rates among the elderly.
Book Synopsis Real Estate Valuation Theory by : Ko Wang
Download or read book Real Estate Valuation Theory written by Ko Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real Estate Valuation Theory is organized around five categories of intellectual contribution to the whole-appraiser decision making and valuation accuracy, application of nontraditional appraisal techniques such as regression and the minimum-variance grid method, appraising contaminated property, ad valorem tax assessment, and new perspectives on traditional appraisal methods. One common thread is that all of the papers are exceptionally well written and thought provoking.
Book Synopsis Housing Markets and Household Behavior in Japan by : Miki Seko
Download or read book Housing Markets and Household Behavior in Japan written by Miki Seko and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-08 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses essential questions about housing by building theoretical models based on various real world problems in Japan and testing these models using econometric methods. Almost all related empirical analyses use Japanese household longitudinal data. Accordingly, the author analyzes whole aspects of the data, based on an understanding of the actual situation, theory, and empirical analysis, to directly derive a vision of a future housing policy. Why are houses expensive and difficult to obtain in Japan? Why do people have to live in small houses? Why do people not relocate frequently? Why is the earthquake insurance subscription rate so low, particularly in an earthquake-prone country such as Japan, even after such a catastrophic event as the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011? How do existing housing finance and tax policies or laws relate to these real world problems? To answer these questions, the book clarifies the unique criteria that characterize housing problems in Japan and presents a vision of future housing policy. The short answer is that existing housing finance policy that adopts criteria based on the floor space of houses creates incentives for people to live in even smaller houses. Furthermore, the Japan Rental Act, which affects people renting homes, reduces residential mobility. The incidence of underinsurance against earthquake risk is a result of earthquake insurance market imperfections such as crude and rough geographical risk ratings. The book elaborates on these factors in four parts and will be of interest to all readers who are concerned with the housing market and household behavior in Japan.
