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Author : Ye-Hsing Lai
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (283 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Daily Volatility of Foreign Exchange Markets written by Ye-Hsing Lai and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stephen Satchell
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080471420
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling
Author : Fearghal Kearney
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Implied Volatility in Foreign Exchange Markets written by Fearghal Kearney and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We utilise functional time series (FTS) techniques to characterise and forecast implied volatility in foreign exchange markets. In particular, we examine the daily implied volatility curves of FX options, namely; EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY. Based on existing techniques in the literature, the FTS model is shown to produce both realistic and plausible implied volatility shapes that closely match empirical data during the volatile 2006-2013 period. Furthermore, the FTS model significantly outperforms implied volatility forecasts produced by traditionally employed parametric models. The evaluation is performed under both an in-sample and out-of-sample testing framework with our fi ndings shown to be robust across various currencies, moneyness segments, contract maturities, forecasting horizons, and out-of-sample window lengths. The economic signi cance of the results is highlighted through the implementation of a simple trading strategy.
Author : Wen-ling Tsai Lin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Wen-ling Tsai Lin and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451975007
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
Author : Torben G. Anderson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility written by Torben G. Anderson and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Using high-frequency data on Deutschemark and Yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation, covering an entire decade. In addition to being model-free, our estimates are also approximately free of measurement error under general conditions, which we delineate. Hence, for all practical purposes, we can treat the exchange rate volatilities and correlations as observed rather than latent. We do so, and we characterize their joint distribution, both unconditionally and conditionally. Noteworthy results include a simple normality-inducing volatility transformation, high contemporaneous correlation across volatilities, high correlation between correlation and volatilities, pronounced and highly.
Download or read book The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Christian Ullrich
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642004954
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (42 download)
Download or read book Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets written by Christian Ullrich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-05-30 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historical and recent developments at international ?nancial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is dif?cult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid ?nancial markets. Its grade of ef?ciencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and arti?cial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated ?nancial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in dif?cult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.
Author : Jonathan H. Wright
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book High Frequency Data, Frequency Domain Inference and Volatility Forecasting written by Jonathan H. Wright and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While it is clear that the volatility of asset returns is serially correlated, there is no general agreement as to the most appropriate parametric model for characterizing this temporal dependence. In this paper, we propose a simple way of modeling financial market volatility using high frequency data. The method avoids using a tight parametric model, by instead simply fitting a long autoregression to log-squared, squared or absolute high frequency returns. This can either be estimated by the usual time domain method, or alternatively the autoregressive coefficients can be backed out from the smoothed periodogram estimate of the spectrum of log-squared, squared or absolute returns. We show how this approach can be used to construct volatility forecasts, which compare favorably with some leading alternatives in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise.
Author : Jessica James
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118445775
Total Pages : 674 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Exchange Rates written by Jessica James and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-05-29 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author : Chunchih Chen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in Foreign Exchange Markets written by Chunchih Chen and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jiangze Du
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351697188
Total Pages : 161 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)
Download or read book Chinese Currency Exchange Rates Analysis written by Jiangze Du and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-05 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of Chinese RMB exchange markets and its risk management strategies. The view that RMB is playing an increasingly international role has been widely accepted by practitioners as well as scholars worldwide. Moreover, the Chinese government is opening the control of RMB exchange market step by step. However, some related topics are under heated debate, such as how to manage and warn of the currency crisis, what the trend of RMB exchange rate in the future is, and how to hedge the exchange risk in the process of RMB internationalization. In this book, we will give distinct answers to the above questions.
Author : Y. C. Lum
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000172589
Total Pages : 1149 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (1 download)
Download or read book Management of Foreign Exchange Risk written by Y. C. Lum and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-09-02 with total page 1149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a technical and specialised discussion of contemporary and emerging issues in foreign exchange and financial markets by addressing the issues of risk management and theory and hypothesis development, which have general implications for finance theory and foreign exchange market management. It offers an in-depth, comprehensive analysis of the issues concerning the volatility of exchange rates. The book has three main objectives. First, it applies the integrated study of exchange rate volatility in terms of depth and breadth. Second, it applies the integrated study of exchange rate volatility in Malaysia, as a case study of a developing country. Malaysia had imposed capital control measures in the past and has now liberalised its exchange rate market and will continue to liberalise it further in the long run. Hence, the need to understand exchange rate volatility measurement and management will be even more important in the future. Third, the book highlights new conditional volatility models for a developing country, such as Malaysia, and develops advanced econometric models which have produced results for sound risk management strategies and for achieving risk management in the financial market and the economy. Additionally, the authors recommend risk management themes which may be of relevance to other developing countries. This work can be used as a reference book by fund managers, financial market analysts, researchers, academics, practitioners, policy makers and postgraduate students in the areas of finance, accounting, business and financial economics. It can also be a supplementary text for Ph.D. and Masters’ students in these areas.
Author : Christian Dunis
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Forecasting Financial Markets written by Christian Dunis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1996-10-07 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today? s financial markets are characterised by a large number of participants, with different appetites for risk, different time horizons, different motivations and reactions to unexpected news. The mathematical techniques and models used in the forecasting of financial markets have therefore grown ever more sophisticated as traders, analysts and investors seek to gain an edge on their competitors. Written by leading international researchers and practitioners, this book focuses on three major themes of today? s state of the art financial research: modelling with high frequency data, the information content of volatility markets, and applications of neural networks and genetic algorithms to financial time series. Forecasting Financial Markets includes empirical applications to present the very latest thinking on these complex techniques, including: High frequency exchange rates Intraday volatility Autocorrelation and variance ratio tests Conditional volatility GARCH processes Chaotic systems Nonlinearity Stochastic and EXPAR models Artificial neural networks Genetic algorithms
Author : Shang-Jin Wei
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Are Option-implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable? written by Shang-Jin Wei and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market participants' forecasts of future exchange rate volatility can be recovered from option contracts on foreign currencies. Such implicit volatility forecasts for four currencies are used to test rational expectations jointly with the applicability of the standard Black-Scholes formula. First, we examine the null hypothesis that the market-anticipated one-month-ahead standard deviation is an unbiased estimator of the subsequent realized standard deviation. The parametric regression method rejects this hypothesis overwhelmingly: the implicit forecasts are themselves excessively variable. Simulations indicate that the rejection is not caused by non-normality of the error term. Second, we use a nonparametric method to test a weaker version of market rationality: the market can correctly forecast the direction of the change in exchange rate volatility. This time, the weaker version of rationality is confirmed- Third, we investigate how market forecasts are formed. We find some evidence that market participants put heavy weight on lagged volatility when forecasting future volatility. Finally, results from the Alternating Conditional Expectations algorithm provide further support for the central finding that when the market predicts a large deviation of volatility from its mean, it could do better by moderating its forecast.
Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444627405
Total Pages : 667 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author : Torben Gustav Andersen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 80 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book DM-dollar Volatility written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper characterizes the volatility in the DM-dollar foreign exchange market using an annual sample of five-minute returns. Our modeling approach explicitly captures the pronounced intraday activity patterns, the strong macroeconomic announcement effects, and the volatility persistence, or ARCH effects, familiar from lower frequency returns. The different features are separately quantified and shown, in conjunction, to account for a substantial fraction of the realized return variability, both at the intradaily and daily levels. Moreover, we demonstrate how the high frequency returns, when properly modeled, constitute an extremely valuable and vastly underutilized resource for better understanding the volatility dynamics at the daily or lower frequencies.
