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Author : Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (172 download)
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C. O'Brien and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher : Forgotten Books
ISBN 13 : 9780332528458
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (284 download)
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C. O'Brien and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2017-12-07 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: A Nine-Industry Study Current databases of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings include predictions from thousands of individuals employed at hundreds of financial service institutions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether it is possible to distinguish forecasters with superior ability on the basis of ex Egg; forecast accuracy from panel data. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Author : PATRICIA C. O'BRIEN
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.L/5 ( download)
Download or read book FORECAST ACCURACY OF INDIVIDUAL ANALYSTS IN NINE INDUSTRIES written by PATRICIA C. O'BRIEN and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher : Nabu Press
ISBN 13 : 9781293452356
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (523 download)
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C. O'Brien and published by Nabu Press. This book was released on 2014-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a reproduction of a book published before 1923. This book may have occasional imperfections such as missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. that were either part of the original artifact, or were introduced by the scanning process. We believe this work is culturally important, and despite the imperfections, have elected to bring it back into print as part of our continuing commitment to the preservation of printed works worldwide. We appreciate your understanding of the imperfections in the preservation process, and hope you enjoy this valuable book.
Author : James Claus
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (521 download)
Download or read book Individual Analyst Forecast Accuracy written by James Claus and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Wenjuan Xie
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Individual Differences and Analyst Forecast Accuracy written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the impact of unidentifiable individual differences among financial analysts on the cross section of their earnings forecast accuracy. Various psychological factors, such as decision style and personality traits, are documented to impact individuals' decision making. However, analysts' individual differences in such psychological factors are not captured by identifiable personal attributes employed in finance literature, such as years of experience. In this paper, we employ the concept of analyst fixed effects to control for unidentifiable individual differences. Examining the factors related to forecast accuracy, we document that controlling for these unidentifiable analyst-specific effects improves model fitting, and changes the explanatory power of some of the traditionally used independent variables in the literature. We confirm that the analyst's firm-specific experience, the intensity of following that a firm receives, and the forecast horizon are all significantly and consistently related to forecast accuracy. However, we find that analyst general experience and coverage complexity lose explanatory power when individual differences are controlled for. Furthermore, we document that analyst general experience is not monotonically associated with better accuracy, and that analysts only benefit from increased general experience during the early to middle stages of their career. Finally, we observe that when analysts' individual differences are controlled for, the boldness of a forecast revision is no longer a significant determinant of the improvement of accuracy. This is one of the first studies to highlight the necessity of recognizing individual differences among financial analysts. We argue that this treatment advances the literature of analyst forecast performance, and closely relates financial agents' decision making to psychology theories of decision style and personality.
Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author : Michael Gilliland
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111922456X
Total Pages : 419 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (192 download)
Download or read book Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-05 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.
Author : Kathryn Brightbill
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 73 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (113 download)
Download or read book Do Analyst Teams Issue Higher Quality Forecasts? written by Kathryn Brightbill and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite significant regulatory and academic interest in sell-side analyst forecasts and an extensive literature demonstrating the impact of teamwork in general, we lack evidence of the effect of teamwork on analyst forecasts. In 2005 analyst teams issued nearly three-fourths of analyst reports for a sample of 89 large, heavily followed companies. Over a twelve-year period 86 of those companies had more reports issued by analyst teams than by individual analysts. Using a hand-collected sample of more than 17,000 analyst reports, I document that forecasts issued by analyst teams systematically differ from the forecasts of individual analysts in ways predicted by team literature. I find that prior to the year 2000 analyst teams issue forecasts that are less accurate and more biased than forecasts issued by individual analysts. Beginning in 2000, the relative benefit of analyst teamwork strengthens, consistent with changes due to Regulation Fair Disclosure, brokerage closures, and other regulatory interventions. In addition I find that, within company-year, team-issued forecasts are less pessimistically biased but not less optimistically biased than the forecasts issued by individual analysts. Lastly, the benefits of teamwork vary with the size of the team and over the life of the team, following an inverted u-shaped pattern. My results inform regulators as they consider factors that impact analyst forecast accuracy and bias.
Author : Lawrence D. Brown
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 6 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book How Important is Past Analyst Forecast Accuracy? written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wall Street Journal rates analysts on the basis of past earnings forecast accuracy. These analyst ratings are important to practitioners who believe that past accuracy portends future accuracy. An alternative way to assess the likelihood of quot;morequot; or quot;lessquot; accurate forecasts in the future is to model the analyst characteristics related to the accuracy of individual analysts' earnings forecasts. No evidence yet exists, however, as to whether an analyst characteristics model is better than a past accuracy model for distinguishing more accurate from less accurate earnings forecasters. I show that a simple model of past accuracy performs as well for this purpose as a more complex model based on analyst characteristics. The findings are robust to annual and quarterly forecasts and pertain to estimation and prediction tests. The evidence suggests that practitioners' focus on past accuracy is not misplaced: It is as important as five analyst characteristics combined.
Author : Wenjuan Xie
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 138 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (891 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Guido Bolliger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (248 download)
Download or read book The Characteristics of Individual Analysts' Forecasts in Europe written by Guido Bolliger and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1601981627
Total Pages : 125 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author : Kimberly Dunn
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book The Effect of Industry Diversification on Consensus and Individual Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Kimberly Dunn and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects of company diversification and analyst diversification on consensus and individual analysts' earnings forecasts. Company diversification is measured both as the number of segments reported by a company and as an entropy measure which decomposes the total diversification into an unrelated and a related component. For the consensus forecast analysis, we examine the effect of these variables both on forecast accuracy and inter-analyst earnings forecast disagreement. For the individual analyst forecast analysis, we examine the effect of the number of business segments followed by an analyst and analyst diversification on individual analyst forecast accuracy. We develop a new measure of individual analyst's diversification which takes into consideration the business segments of all companies followed by an analyst, and its interaction with the business segments of the company whose earnings are being forecasted. The results of our study show that as the level of a company's total diversification increases, analysts are less accurate in their earnings forecasts and have more inter-analyst disagreement. Analysts are less accurate and have more disagreement as unrelated diversification increases. A company's related diversification has no significant impact on these variables. For both forecast accuracy and inter-analyst disagreement, the impact of a unit of unrelated diversification is significantly higher than that of the impact of a unit of related diversification. For individual analysts' earnings forecasts, as the number of business segments followed by an analyst increases and as his level of diversification increases, his earnings forecast accuracy significantly declines. The results of our study have implications for researchers who use analysts? earnings forecasts in their studies, investors who use these forecasts for company valuation and for brokerage firms in evaluating individual analysts.
Author : Lawrence D. Brown
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics for August 1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus? (4) Is a smart consensus that is based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst's overall ability in forecasting all statistics.
Author : Tanja Klettke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business
ISBN 13 : 3658056347
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (58 download)
Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
