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Fiscal Adjustment In Eu Countries
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Book Synopsis Fiscal Adjustment in EU Countries by : Mr.Kenji Moriyama
Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment in EU Countries written by Mr.Kenji Moriyama and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-08-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several European Union countries have recently implemented or are envisaging fiscal that operations improve budgetary figures but have no structural impact on government finances. This paper evaluates some of these measures using a balance sheet approach. In particular, it examines the degree to which reductions in government debt in EU countries has been accompanied by a decumulation of government assets. In the run-up to Maastricht (1997) it finds a strong correlation between changes in government liabilities and government assets, and larger declines in government assets in countries starting from higher public debt levels.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Consolidation in Southeastern European Countries by : Mr.Brian Olden
Download or read book Fiscal Consolidation in Southeastern European Countries written by Mr.Brian Olden and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the relative strengths and weaknesses of fiscal institutions in ten Southeastern European countries, using recent benchmarking methodologies developed by FAD. The assessment evaluates each country’s understanding of the scale of the fiscal adjustment challenge, its ability to develop a credible consolidation strategy, and its capacity to implement the strategy. Key institutional arrangements, are generally in place, including top-down budgeting and medium-term budget frameworks. Other institutional arrangements require further attention, including macro-fiscal forecasting, fiscal risk analysis, setting fiscal objectives, presence and role of independent fiscal agencies, and top-down parliamentary approval.
Book Synopsis Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries by : Mr.Daniel Kanda
Download or read book Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries written by Mr.Daniel Kanda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For a number of countries - Italy, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, and France - this paper develops an inter-temporal model that elicits the implied country-preferences over balancing the conflicting objectives of fiscal consolidation and reduction of economic slack. The model suggests that some front-loading of adjustment is desirable, although the extent would vary by country preferences. It also finds that proposed consolidations may prove to be stronger than acceptable, especially if somewhat larger than anticipated fiscal multipliers lead to a sizeable economic deceleration.
Book Synopsis The Longer-term Fiscal Challenges Facing the European Union by : Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Download or read book The Longer-term Fiscal Challenges Facing the European Union written by Jeromin Zettelmeyer and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pandemic and subsequent price shocks triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have increased longer-term fiscal pressures in the European Union through higher debt, higher expected real interest rates and higher public investment needs. This Policy Brief makes some simple quantitative assessments of those effects and discusses policy implications, with the following results. First, long-term increases in primary fiscal balances required to offset higher debt and higher expected real interest rates are in the range of 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent of GDP for most EU countries. However, because of pre-existing differences in fiscal space, not all countries will need to undertake that adjustment, while some countries may need to adjust by substantially more. Among the 21 EU countries for which we have data to undertake this analysis, 14 will need to adjust by more than they were planning to do by 2025. Second, the required additional fiscal adjustment looks manageable, although it is substantial in some cases. To achieve medium-term debt-reducing primary balances, several EU countries will need to raise primary balances by more than 2 percent of GDP above their 2025 target, but no country will need additional fiscal adjustment of more than 3 percent of GDP. Third, market data suggests that the future path of real interest rates is very uncertain. Compared to the period immediately preceding the pandemic, longer-term expected real interest rates have increased by about 2 percentage points but remain low on average, at about 1 percent in real terms. Future developments depend on whether the structural factors that led to low interest rates in the first place persist or unwind. While interest rates might decline again, fiscal policymakers should not make plans that assume such a decline. Fourth, public spending needs for additional defence and climate spending run well above 1 percent of GDP per year. These needs do not appear to have been incorporated into current fiscal baselines, and hence will come on top of the adjustment described above. To ensure that fiscal adjustment does not defeat its purpose by slowing growth, it is essential that it is conducted gradually. In countries that require such adjustment, it should start as soon as cyclical conditions allow.
Book Synopsis Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on Taxation and Interest Spending of National Governments by : Mr.Francesco P. Mongelli
Download or read book Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on Taxation and Interest Spending of National Governments written by Mr.Francesco P. Mongelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the interest spending and taxation channels through which EMU could affect the public finances. It provides a framework for examining different views on a further narrowing of interest rate differentials. A model of Blanchard and Fischer is amended to analyze the two channels, and empirical evidence on the tax harmonization process is presented. The paper argues that “high-debt” and “high-tax” countries pursuing prudent fiscal policies could benefit the most from EMU: if monetary and widespread fiscal discipline are jointly established, interest rates could decline rapidly, while tax harmonization is likely to be gradual.
Book Synopsis Europe Managing the Crisis by : Walter Kickert
Download or read book Europe Managing the Crisis written by Walter Kickert and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-06-05 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies of the recent financial crisis have been largely dominated by economists, but the similarities and differences between European countries' response reflect both economic and political perspectives which have resulted in considerable differences in their decisions. Drawing on uniquely comprehensive research data, this book presents an in-depth comparative analysis of how 14 European governments tackled the challenge of fiscal consolidation, and analyses the political decision-making behind these measures. By exploring national responses not just in fiscal terms, but also from a political perspective, it reveals that decision making has been driven by political factors with profound effects on public administration and management. This ground-breaking book fills an important gap in the research literature for scholars of public management, public administration and policy, and will be a benchmark for future work on the global economic crisis.
Book Synopsis Adjustment in Euro Area Deficit Countries by : Mr.Thierry Tressel
Download or read book Adjustment in Euro Area Deficit Countries written by Mr.Thierry Tressel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-14 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imbalances within the euro area have been a defining feature of the crisis. This paper provides a critical analysis of the ongoing rebalancing of euro area “deficit economies” (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) that accumulated large current account deficits and external liability positions in the run-up to the crisis. It shows that relative price adjustments have been proceeding gradually. Real effective exchange rates have depreciated by 10-25 percent, driven largely by reductions in unit labor costs due to labor shedding. While exports have typically rebounded, subdued demand accounts for much of the reduction in current account deficits. Hence, the current account balance of the euro area as a whole has shifted into surplus. Internal rebalancing has come with subdued activity—notably very high unemployment in the deficit economies—and made continued adjustment more difficult. To advance rebalancing further, the paper emphasizes the need for: (1) macroeconomic policies that support demand and bring inflation in line with the ECB’s medium-term price stability objective; (2) continued EMU reforms (banking union) to ensure proper financial intermediation; and (3) structural reforms in product and labor markets to improve productivity and support the reallocation of resources to tradable sectors.
Book Synopsis Reforming the EU Fiscal Framework by : Mr. Nathaniel G Arnold
Download or read book Reforming the EU Fiscal Framework written by Mr. Nathaniel G Arnold and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-09-05 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The EU’s fiscal framework needs reform. While existing fiscal rules have had some impact in constraining deficits, they did not prevent deficits and debt ratios that have threatened the stability of the monetary union in the past and that continue to create vulnerabilities today. The framework also has a poor track record at managing trade-offs between containing fiscal risks and stabilizing output. Finally, the framework does not provide sufficient tools for EU-wide stabilization. This was most visible during the decade following the euro area sovereign debt crisis, when structurally low real interest rates stretched the policy tools of the European Central Bank (ECB), leading to a persistent undershooting of its inflation target. This paper proposes a new framework based on risk-based EU-level fiscal rules, strengthened national institutions, and a central fiscal capacity. First, risk-based EU-level fiscal rules would link the speed and ambition of fiscal consolidation to the level and horizon of fiscal risks, as identified by debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using a common methodology developed by a new and independent European Fiscal Council (EFC). The 3 percent deficit and 60 percent debt reference values would remain. Second, all member countries would be required to enact medium-term fiscal frameworks consistent with the EU-level rules—that is, to ensure convergence over the medium-term to an overall fiscal balance anchor by setting expenditure ceilings. Independent national fiscal councils (NFCs) would have a much stronger role to strengthen checks and balances at the national level (including undertaking or endorsing macroeconomic projections and performing DSAs to assess fiscal risks). The European Commission (EC) would continue to play its key surveil¬lance role as articulated in the Maastricht Treaty and the EFC would be the center of a peer network of fiscal councils. Third, building on the recent experience with the NextGenerationEU (NGEU), an EU fiscal capacity (FCEU) would improve euro area macroeconomic stabilization and allow the provision of common EU public goods—a task that has become more urgent given the green transition and common security concerns. Central to the proposal is a mutually reinforcing relationship between EU rules and national-level imple¬mentation. Strengthening implementation requires both better national ownership of the rules and their application and greater congruence of national-level frameworks with EU-level rules. The former can only be achieved by rules that convincingly balance the needs of members with the avoidance of negative externali¬ties across members. This argues for a risk-based approach—the first pillar of our proposal. The latter requires a stronger role for significantly upgraded national level frameworks—the second pillar of our proposal.
Book Synopsis Cross-Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area by : Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Download or read book Cross-Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-28 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper revisits the issue of cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology. We find evidence in support of fiscal spillovers in 10 euro area countries. Fiscal consolidation in one country not only reduces domestic output (direct effect), but also the output of other member countries (indirect/spillover effect). Fiscal spillovers are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries. On average, 1 percent of GDP fiscal consolidation in 10 euro area countries reduces the combined output by 0.6 percent on impact, out of which half is driven by indirect effects from fiscal spillovers. The impact peters out and becomes insignificant over the medium-term. It is largely driven by tax measures, which have a relatively stronger effect on output compared to expenditure measures. The results are robust to alternative measures of bilateral links across countries.
Book Synopsis Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan by : Nicoletta Batini
Download or read book Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan written by Nicoletta Batini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to frontloaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases.
Book Synopsis The Eastern Enlargement of the EU by : Marek Dabrowski
Download or read book The Eastern Enlargement of the EU written by Marek Dabrowski and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Eastern Enlargement of the EU identifies the major fiscal challenges facing Central European countries on the road to European Union accession. The Introduction and three other chapters are on broad macro-economic issues, and four `sectoral' chapters follow these on such questions as the fiscal impact of pensions, health reform, taxation and agricultural policies. A comprehensive analysis of tax systems and of the major elements of public social expenditures (pensions and health care systems) is presented. This analysis helps to identify the key factors determining the present size of governments and the need for, and prospects of, fiscal adjustment. In addition, a comparison of fiscal policy is carried out, followed by a long-term fiscal projection until year 2010. The book is relevant to academics in macroeconomics, European studies and transition economics, as well as in public finance and public policy sciences. It should also appeal to a significant professional audience. Policy makers and economists interested in the accession process in EU countries - at ministries, National Banks, research departments of banks, international organizations (the EU Commission, World Bank, IMF, OECD) - will have a strong interest in this book.
Book Synopsis Multi-level Finance and the Euro Crisis by : Ehtisham Ahmad
Download or read book Multi-level Finance and the Euro Crisis written by Ehtisham Ahmad and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-29 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Representing a unique contribution to the analysis and discussion of the unfolding Eurozone crisis in terms of the relationship between central and local government, this book addresses a number of important fiscal and political economy questions. To what extent have local and regional governments contributed to the crisis? To what degree have sub-national services and investments borne the brunt of the adjustments? How have multi-level fissures affected tensions between different levels of government from the supranational to the local? This volume covers these and many other critical issues that have been largely ignored despite their relevance. The book first addresses general issues of fiscal coordination and management across levels of government in the context of incentives, which can be altered by the existence of a supranational tier. The country-specific chapters, prepared by leading experts, provide a thorough review of the key problems of multi-levels of government in the biggest economies in the Eurozone (France and Germany) and Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece). In further chapters the juxtaposition of Barcelona and Turin provides an opportunity to evaluate large investments in a multi-level context, associated, in this case, with the Olympics. Macedonia provides a discussion of the related issues in an EU accession country. As a whole, the book explores the long-term impact of the crisis on local service delivery and investment, and the consequences for sustainable growth and political cohesion. It also offers rarely found insights and suggestions to increase the stability and strength of multi-level European institutions. This is an enlightening resource for all those, from academics and graduates to policy makers and practitioners, seeking a comprehensive understanding of European fiscal, federal and financial issues.
Book Synopsis Economics, Politics and Budgets by : C. Mulas-Granados
Download or read book Economics, Politics and Budgets written by C. Mulas-Granados and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the proliferation of fiscal consolidation episodes in the advent of Monetary Union, this book explains the causes and consequences of fiscal policy in Europe, using theory and empirical evidence from the last four decades.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Devaluation and Fiscal Consolidation by : Ruud A. de Mooij
Download or read book Fiscal Devaluation and Fiscal Consolidation written by Ruud A. de Mooij and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on two core tax design issues that arise in addressing current fiscal challenges. It first explores the idea, prominent in troubled Eurozone countries, of a "fiscal devaluation": shifting from social contributions to the VAT as a way to mimic a nominal devaluation. Empirical evidence is presented which suggests that in Eurozone countries this may indeed improve the trade balance in the short-run, though, as theory predicts, the effects eventually disappear. The paper then assesses the wider scope for VAT reform in meeting fiscal consolidation needs, developing and beginning to apply a methodology for finding additional VAT revenue in ways less distortionary and fairer than further raising the standard rate.
Book Synopsis The Baltics by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book The Baltics written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-01-24 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper on the Baltic countries analyzes medium-term fiscal issues related to European Union (EU) and NATO accession. The paper supports the Baltic authorities’ intention to aim at balancing their budgets over the economic cycle. The paper describes the Baltics’ current fiscal position and structure. It reviews theory and empirical evidence of the possible macroeconomic benefits of fiscal adjustment. It also reviews the experience of earlier EU accession countries prior to and after their accession. The medium-term fiscal frameworks are also presented.
Book Synopsis Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU by : Alfonso Arpaia
Download or read book Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU written by Alfonso Arpaia and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: 1. Introduction - 2. Empirical strategy and data - 3. Panel unit root tests and cointegration analysis - 4. Heterogeneous panel ECM estimation - 5. Robustness analysis - 6. Implications for policy - 7. Concluding remarks.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy in the European Union by : Jesus Ferreiro
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in the European Union written by Jesus Ferreiro and published by Palgrave MacMillan. This book was released on 2008-11-27 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book offers a comprehensive analysis of current national fiscal policies in the European Union and European Monetary Union, and provides insights into the consequences of these fiscal policies on economic activity. With contributions from a range of experts, the book focuses on the coordination problems between the single monetary policy and national fiscal policies, and the negative impact on the capacity of fiscal policy to correct short-term economic fluctuations and to accelerate economic growth in the long-term in European economies. This book is an essential read for all interested in the role of fiscal policy in the European Union."--BOOK JACKET.
