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Firm Leverage And Boom Bust Cycles
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Book Synopsis Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles by : Can Sever
Download or read book Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles written by Can Sever and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-16 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreases in the medium-term. Relatedly, the volatility of employment growth increases in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups. Finally, this paper provides suggestive evidence on the role of a financial channel in the relationship between firm leverage buildups and employment growth. The results show that a rise in firm leverage is associated with a persistently higher debt service ratio, pointing the drag on finances. Consistently, boom-bust growth cycles in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups are not limited to employment growth, but are also pronounced for investment. Moreover, the medium-term decline in firm employment growth as predicted by leverage buildups becomes even larger if aggregate financial conditions tighten. The findings are in favor of “lean against the wind” approach in policy making.
Book Synopsis Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles by : Xavier Giroud
Download or read book Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles written by Xavier Giroud and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that buildups in firm leverage predict subsequent declines in aggregate regional employment. Using confidential establishment-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we exploit regional heterogeneity in leverage buildups by large U.S. publicly listed firms, which are widely spread across U.S. regions. For a given region, our results show that increases in firms' borrowing are associated with "boom-bust" cycles: employment grows in the short run but declines in the medium run. Across regions, our results imply that regions with larger buildups in firm leverage exhibit stronger short-run growth, but also stronger medium-run declines, in aggregate regional employment. We obtain similar results if we condition on national recessions-regions with larger buildups in firm leverage prior to a recession experience larger employment losses during the recession. When comparing regional firm and household leverage growth, we find qualitatively similar patterns for both. Finally, we find that regions whose firm leverage growth comoves more strongly also exhibit stronger comovement in their regional business cycles.
Book Synopsis Leverage Over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness by : Emin M. Dinlersoz
Download or read book Leverage Over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness written by Emin M. Dinlersoz and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the leverage of U.S. firms over their life-cycle and implications for firm growth and responses to shocks. We use a new dataset that matches private firms’ balance sheets to U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) for the period 2005-2012. A number of stylized facts emerge. First, firm size and leverage are strongly positively correlated for private firms, both in the cross section of firms and over time for a given firm. For public firms, there is a weak negative relation between leverage and size. Second, young private firms borrow more, but firm age has no relation to public firms’ leverage. Third, while private firms switch from debt to equity financing as they age, public firms slightly reduce equity financing as they age. Building on this “normal times” benchmark and using the “Great Recession” as a shock to financial conditions, we show that, for private firms, firm size can serve as a good predictor of financial constraints. During the Great Recession, leverage declines for private firms, but not for public firms. We also provide evidence that private firms’ growth is positively related to leverage, as they finance their growth during normal times with short-term borrowing, whereas the relationship between leverage and firm growth is negative for public firms. These results suggest that public firms are not financially constrained during normal times or during crisis, but private firms are.
Book Synopsis Leverage Over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness by : Emin M. Dinlersoz
Download or read book Leverage Over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness written by Emin M. Dinlersoz and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the leverage of U.S. firms over their life-cycles, and the connection between firm leverage, firm growth, and aggregate shocks. We construct a new dataset that combines private and public firms' balance sheets with firm-level data from U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) for the period 2005-2012. Public and private firms exhibit different leverage dynamics over their life-cycles. Firm age and size are systematically related to leverage for private firms, but not for public firms. We show that private firms, but not public ones, deleveraged during the Great Recession, and that this deleveraging is associated with a reduction in firm revenue and employment growth. Exploiting sectoral variation, we find that the leverage dynamics of firms is also relevant for aggregate fluctuations.
Download or read book Boom and Bust written by Alex J. Pollock and published by Government Institutes. This book was released on 2010-11-16 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the recent economic crisis was a painful period for many Americans, the panic surrounding the downturn was fueled by an incomplete understanding of economic history. Economic hysteria made for riveting journalism and effective political theater, but the politicians and members of the media who declared that America was in the midst of the greatest financial calamity since the Great Depression were as wrong and misguided as the expansionists of the Roosevelt era. In reality the cyclical nature of market economies is as old as the markets themselves. In a free market system, financial downturns inevitably accompany economic prosperity-but the overall trend is upward progress in living standards and national wealth. While it is helpful to understand what caused the recent crisis, the more important questions to consider are 'What makes the 'boom and bust' cycle so predictable?' and 'What are the ethical responsibilities of the citizens of a free market economy?' In Boom and Bust: Financial Cycles and Human Prosperity, Alex J. Pollock argues that while economic downturns can be frightening and difficult, people living in free market economies enjoy greater health, better access to basic necessities, better education, work less arduous jobs, and have more choices and wider horizons than people at any other point in history. This wonderful reality would not exist in the absence of financial cycles. This book explains why.
Book Synopsis Leverage Over the Firm Life Cycle, Firm Growth, and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Emin Murat Dinlersoz
Download or read book Leverage Over the Firm Life Cycle, Firm Growth, and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Emin Murat Dinlersoz and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the leverage of U.S. firms over their life cycles and the connection between firm leverage, firm growth, and aggregate shocks. We construct a new dataset that combines private and public firms' balance sheets with firm-level data from U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database for the period 2005-12. Public and private firms exhibit different leverage dynamics over their life cycles. Firm age and size are systematically related to leverage for private firms but not for public firms. We show that private firms, but not public ones, deleveraged during the Great Recession and that this deleveraging is associated with a reduction in firm revenue and employment growth. Exploiting sectoral variation, we find that the leverage dynamics of firms is also relevant for aggregate fluctuations.
Book Synopsis Leveraged Financing, Over Investment, and Boom-Bust Cycles by : Patrick Pintus
Download or read book Leveraged Financing, Over Investment, and Boom-Bust Cycles written by Patrick Pintus and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has long been argued in the history of economic thought that over investment through highly leveraged borrowing under elastic credit supply may generate large boom-bust business cycles. This paper rationalizes this idea in a dynamic general equilibrium model with infinitely lived rational agents. It shows that dynamic interactions between strong asset-accumulation motives (based on habit formation on the borrower side) and elastic credit supply (based on collateralized lending on the lender side) generate a multiplier-accelerator mechanism that can transform a one-time technological innovation into large and long-lasting boom-bust cycles. Such cycles share many features in common to investment bubbles observed in the history (such as the IT bubble in the 1990s and the 2000s housing bubble.).
Book Synopsis Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage by : Mr.Anton Korinek
Download or read book Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage written by Mr.Anton Korinek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-21 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps driven by deleveraging, using a simple Keynesian model. When constrained agents engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to fall to induce unconstrained agents to pick up the decline in aggregate demand. However, if the fall in the interest rate is limited by the zero lower bound, aggregate demand is insufficient and the economy enters a liquidity trap. In such an environment, agents' exante leverage and insurance decisions are associated with aggregate demand externalities. The competitive equilibrium allocation is constrained inefficient. Welfare can be improved by ex-ante macroprudential policies such as debt limits and mandatory insurance requirements. The size of the required intervention depends on the differences in marginal propensity to consume between borrowers and lenders during the deleveraging episode. In our model, contractionary monetary policy is inferior to macroprudential policy in addressing excessive leverage, and it can even have the unintended consequence of increasing leverage.
Download or read book Boom-Bust Cycles written by Lucas Bernard and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It appears that many boom-bust cycles are driven by linkages between the credit market and asset prices. Recently, in addition to credit, bonds and stocks, new complex securities have been developed, e.g., MBS, CDO and CDS, that act as instruments of financial intermediation and evaluation of credit risk. We study their role in the recent financial market meltdown and how they exacerbate leverage cycles. We first introduce a baseline model that allows for financial market boom-bust cycles. Then we extend the model to demonstrate the magnifying effects arising from the pricing of the new financial instruments. Finally, we summarize the mechanism of leverage cycles in a low dimensional dynamic system. We also spell out some implication for monetary policy.
Book Synopsis An Anatomy of Credit Booms by : Mr.Marco Terrones
Download or read book An Anatomy of Credit Booms written by Mr.Marco Terrones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and leverage ratios, firm values, and banking fragility. We also find that credit booms are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; most emerging markets crises are associated with credit booms; and credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.
Book Synopsis Credit Supply Driven Boom-bust Cycles by : Yavuz Arslan
Download or read book Credit Supply Driven Boom-bust Cycles written by Yavuz Arslan and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Leverage Over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness by : Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Download or read book Leverage Over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness written by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions by : Adrian Alter
Download or read book Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions written by Adrian Alter and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-15 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Corporate debt in emerging markets has risen significantly in recent years amid accommodative global financial conditions. This paper studies the relationship of leverage growth in emerging market (EM) firms to U.S. monetary conditions, and more broadly, to global financial conditions. We find that accommodative U.S. monetary conditions are reliably associated with faster EM leverage growth during the past decade. Specifically, a 1 percentage point decline in the U.S. policy rate corresponds to an appreciable increase in EM leverage growth of 9 basis points, on average (relative to the sample average leverage growth of 35 basis points per year). This impact is more pronounced for sectors dependent on external financing, for SMEs, and for firms in more financially open EMs with less flexible exchange rates. The findings suggest that global financial conditions affect EM firms’ leverage growth in part by influencing domestic interest rates and by relaxing corporate borrowing constraints.
Book Synopsis Firm Risk and Leverage Based Business Cycles by : Sanjay K. Chugh
Download or read book Firm Risk and Leverage Based Business Cycles written by Sanjay K. Chugh and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Leverage Over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness by : Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (ǂe author)
Download or read book Leverage Over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness written by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (ǂe author) and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the leverage of U.S. firms over their life-cycle and implications for firm growth and responses to shocks. We use a new dataset that matches private firms' balance sheets to U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) for the period 2005-2012. A number of stylized facts emerge. First, firm size and leverage are strongly positively correlated for private firms, both in the cross section of firms and over time for a given firm. For public firms, there is a weak negative relation between leverage and size. Second, young private firms borrow more, but firm age has no relation to public firms' leverage. Third, while private firms switch from debt to equity financing as they age, public firms slightly reduce equity financing as they age. Building on this "normal times" benchmark and using the "Great Recession" as a shock to financial conditions, we show that, for private firms, firm size can serve as a good predictor of financial constraints. During the Great Recession, leverage declines for private firms, but not for public firms. We also provide evidence that private firms' growth is positively related to leverage, as they finance their growth during normal times with short-term borrowing, whereas the relationship between leverage and firm growth is negative for public firms. These results suggest that public firms are not financially constrained during normal times or during crisis, but private firms are
Book Synopsis The Housing Boom and Bust by : Thomas Sowell
Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Book Synopsis The Chicago Plan Revisited by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book The Chicago Plan Revisited written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.
