Extreme Value Theory And Fat Tails In Equity Markets

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Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781544508054
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Handbook Of Heavy-tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management

Author : Michele Leonardo Bianchi
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9813276215
Total Pages : 598 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (132 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook Of Heavy-tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management by : Michele Leonardo Bianchi

Download or read book Handbook Of Heavy-tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management written by Michele Leonardo Bianchi and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-03-08 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of heavy-tailed distributions allows researchers to represent phenomena that occasionally exhibit very large deviations from the mean. The dynamics underlying these phenomena is an interesting theoretical subject, but the study of their statistical properties is in itself a very useful endeavor from the point of view of managing assets and controlling risk. In this book, the authors are primarily concerned with the statistical properties of heavy-tailed distributions and with the processes that exhibit jumps. A detailed overview with a Matlab implementation of heavy-tailed models applied in asset management and risk managements is presented. The book is not intended as a theoretical treatise on probability or statistics, but as a tool to understand the main concepts regarding heavy-tailed random variables and processes as applied to real-world applications in finance. Accordingly, the authors review approaches and methodologies whose realization will be useful for developing new methods for forecasting of financial variables where extreme events are not treated as anomalies, but as intrinsic parts of the economic process.

Investment Theory and Risk Management

Author : Steven Peterson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118238419
Total Pages : 330 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Investment Theory and Risk Management by : Steven Peterson

Download or read book Investment Theory and Risk Management written by Steven Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-18 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique perspective on applied investment theory and risk management from the Senior Risk Officer of a major pension fund Investment Theory and Risk Management is a practical guide to today's investment environment. The book's sophisticated quantitative methods are examined by an author who uses these methods at the Virginia Retirement System and teaches them at the Virginia Commonwealth University. In addition to showing how investment performance can be evaluated, using Jensen's Alpha, Sharpe's Ratio, and DDM, he delves into four types of optimal portfolios (one that is fully invested, one with targeted returns, another with no short sales, and one with capped investment allocations). In addition, the book provides valuable insights on risk, and topics such as anomalies, factor models, and active portfolio management. Other chapters focus on private equity, structured credit, optimal rebalancing, data problems, and Monte Carlo simulation. Contains investment theory and risk management spreadsheet models based on the author's own real-world experience with stock, bonds, and alternative assets Offers a down-to-earth guide that can be used on a daily basis for making common financial decisions with a new level of quantitative sophistication and rigor Written by the Director of Research and Senior Risk Officer for the Virginia Retirement System and an Associate Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University's School of Business Investment Theory and Risk Management empowers both the technical and non-technical reader with the essential knowledge necessary to understand and manage risks in any corporate or economic environment.

Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

Author : Marco Corazza
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030789659
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (37 download)

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Book Synopsis Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance by : Marco Corazza

Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance written by Marco Corazza and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-13 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The cooperation and contamination between mathematicians, statisticians and econometricians working in actuarial sciences and finance is improving the research on these topics and producing numerous meaningful scientific results. This volume presents new ideas, in the form of four- to six-page papers, presented at the International Conference eMAF2020 – Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. Due to the now sadly famous COVID-19 pandemic, the conference was held remotely through the Zoom platform offered by the Department of Economics of the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice on September 18, 22 and 25, 2020. eMAF2020 is the ninth edition of an international biennial series of scientific meetings, started in 2004 at the initiative of the Department of Economics and Statistics of the University of Salerno. The effectiveness of this idea has been proven by wide participation in all editions, which have been held in Salerno (2004, 2006, 2010 and 2014), Venice (2008, 2012 and 2020), Paris (2016) and Madrid (2018). This book covers a wide variety of subjects: artificial intelligence and machine learning in finance and insurance, behavioral finance, credit risk methods and models, dynamic optimization in finance, financial data analytics, forecasting dynamics of actuarial and financial phenomena, foreign exchange markets, insurance models, interest rate models, longevity risk, models and methods for financial time series analysis, multivariate techniques for financial markets analysis, pension systems, portfolio selection and management, real-world finance, risk analysis and management, trading systems, and others. This volume is a valuable resource for academics, PhD students, practitioners, professionals and researchers. Moreover, it is also of interest to other readers with quantitative background knowledge.

Extreme Events

Author : Malcolm Kemp
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119962870
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Extreme Events by : Malcolm Kemp

Download or read book Extreme Events written by Malcolm Kemp and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-10-04 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taking due account of extreme events when constructing portfolios of assets or liabilities is a key discipline for market professionals. Extreme events are a fact of life in how markets operate. In Extreme Events: Robust Portfolio Construction in the Presence of Fat Tails, leading expert Malcolm Kemp shows readers how to analyse market data to uncover fat-tailed behaviour, how to incorporate expert judgement in the handling of such information, and how to refine portfolio construction methodologies to make portfolios less vulnerable to extreme events or to benefit more from them. This is the only text that combines a comprehensive treatment of modern risk budgeting and portfolio construction techniques with the specific refinements needed for them to handle extreme events. It explains in a logical sequence what constitutes fat-tailed behaviour and why it arises, how we can analyse such behaviour, at aggregate, sector or instrument level, and how we can then take advantage of this analysis. Along the way, it provides a rigorous, comprehensive and clear development of traditional portfolio construction methodologies applicable if fat-tails are absent. It then explains how to refine these methodologies to accommodate real world behaviour. Throughout, the book highlights the importance of expert opinion, showing that even the most data-centric portfolio construction approaches ultimately depend on practitioner assumptions about how the world might behave. The book includes: Key concepts and methods involved in analysing extreme events A comprehensive treatment of mean-variance investing, Bayesian methods, market consistent approaches, risk budgeting, and their application to manager and instrument selection A systematic development of the refinements needed to traditional portfolio construction methodologies to cater for fat-tailed behaviour Latest developments in stress testing and back testing methodologies A strong focus on the practical implementation challenges that can arise at each step in the process and on how to overcome these challenges “Understanding how to model and analyse the risk of extreme events is a crucial part of the risk management process. This book provides a set of techniques that allow practitioners to do this comprehensively.” Paul Sweeting, Professor of Actuarial Science, University of Kent “How can the likeliness of crises affect the construction of portfolios? This question is highly topical in times where we still have to digest the last financial collapse. Malcolm Kemp gives the answer. His book is highly recommended to experts as well as to students in the financial field.” Christoph Krischanitz, President Actuarial Association of Austria, Chairman WG “Market Consistency” of Groupe Consultatif

Extreme Events in Finance

Author : Francois Longin
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118650190
Total Pages : 638 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis Extreme Events in Finance by : Francois Longin

Download or read book Extreme Events in Finance written by Francois Longin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-10-17 with total page 638 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to the growing importance of extreme value risk theory, methods, and applications in the financial sector Presenting a uniquely accessible guide, Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications features a combination of the theory, methods, and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) in finance and a practical understanding of market behavior including both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. Beginning with a fascinating history of EVTs and financial modeling, the handbook introduces the historical implications that resulted in the applications and then clearly examines the fundamental results of EVT in finance. After dealing with these theoretical results, the handbook focuses on the EVT methods critical for data analysis. Finally, the handbook features the practical applications and techniques and how these can be implemented in financial markets. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications includes: Over 40 contributions from international experts in the areas of finance, statistics, economics, business, insurance, and risk management Topical discussions on univariate and multivariate case extremes as well as regulation in financial markets Extensive references in order to provide readers with resources for further study Discussions on using R packages to compute the value of risk and related quantities The book is a valuable reference for practitioners in financial markets such as financial institutions, investment funds, and corporate treasuries, financial engineers, quantitative analysts, regulators, risk managers, large-scale consultancy groups, and insurers. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications is also a useful textbook for postgraduate courses on the methodology of EVTs in finance.

The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails

Author : Jayakrishnan Nair
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1009062964
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails by : Jayakrishnan Nair

Download or read book The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails written by Jayakrishnan Nair and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-06-09 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.

Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics

Author : Robert A. Meyers
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441977007
Total Pages : 919 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics by : Robert A. Meyers

Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.

Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets

Author : Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451846444
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets by : Mr.Andrea Pescatori

Download or read book Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets written by Mr.Andrea Pescatori and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crises on external sovereign debt are typically defined as defaults. Such a definition accurately captures debt-servicing difficulties in the 1980s, a period of numerous defaults on bank loans. However, defining defaults as debt crises is problematic for the 1990s, when sovereign bond markets emerged. In contrast to the 1980s, the 1990s are characterized by significant foreign debt-servicing difficulties but fewer sovereign defaults. In order to capture this evolution of debt markets, we define debt crises as events occurring when either a country defaults or its bond spreads are above a critical threshold. We find that our definition outperforms the default-based definition in capturing debt-servicing difficulties and, consequently, in fitting the post-1994 period. In particular, liquidity indicators are significant in explaining our definition of debt crises, while they do not play any role in explaining defaults after 1994.

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Author : John Y. Campbell
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226092127
Total Pages : 444 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Prices and Monetary Policy by : John Y. Campbell

Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.

R Programming for Actuarial Science

Author : Peter McQuire
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119754992
Total Pages : 645 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis R Programming for Actuarial Science by : Peter McQuire

Download or read book R Programming for Actuarial Science written by Peter McQuire and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-10-26 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: R Programming for Actuarial Science Professional resource providing an introduction to R coding for actuarial and financial mathematics applications, with real-life examples R Programming for Actuarial Science provides a grounding in R programming applied to the mathematical and statistical methods that are of relevance for actuarial work. In R Programming for Actuarial Science, readers will find: Basic theory for each chapter to complement other actuarial textbooks which provide foundational theory in depth. Topics covered include compound interest, statistical inference, asset-liability matching, time series, loss distributions, contingencies, mortality models, and option pricing plus many more typically covered in university courses. More than 400 coding examples and exercises, most with solutions, to enable students to gain a better understanding of underlying mathematical and statistical principles. An overall basic to intermediate level of coverage in respect of numerous actuarial applications, and real-life examples included with every topic. Providing a highly useful combination of practical discussion and basic theory, R Programming for Actuarial Science is an essential reference for BSc/MSc students in actuarial science, trainee actuaries studying privately, and qualified actuaries with little programming experience, along with undergraduate students studying finance, business, and economics.

Extreme Events in Finance

Author : Francois Longin
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118650336
Total Pages : 639 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Extreme Events in Finance by : Francois Longin

Download or read book Extreme Events in Finance written by Francois Longin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-09-21 with total page 639 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to the growing importance of extreme value risk theory, methods, and applications in the financial sector Presenting a uniquely accessible guide, Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications features a combination of the theory, methods, and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) in finance and a practical understanding of market behavior including both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. Beginning with a fascinating history of EVTs and financial modeling, the handbook introduces the historical implications that resulted in the applications and then clearly examines the fundamental results of EVT in finance. After dealing with these theoretical results, the handbook focuses on the EVT methods critical for data analysis. Finally, the handbook features the practical applications and techniques and how these can be implemented in financial markets. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications includes: Over 40 contributions from international experts in the areas of finance, statistics, economics, business, insurance, and risk management Topical discussions on univariate and multivariate case extremes as well as regulation in financial markets Extensive references in order to provide readers with resources for further study Discussions on using R packages to compute the value of risk and related quantities The book is a valuable reference for practitioners in financial markets such as financial institutions, investment funds, and corporate treasuries, financial engineers, quantitative analysts, regulators, risk managers, large-scale consultancy groups, and insurers. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications is also a useful textbook for postgraduate courses on the methodology of EVTs in finance.

Heavy Tails and Copulas

Author : Rustam Ibragimov
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789814689809
Total Pages : 303 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (898 download)

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Book Synopsis Heavy Tails and Copulas by : Rustam Ibragimov

Download or read book Heavy Tails and Copulas written by Rustam Ibragimov and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book offers a unified approach to the study of crises, large fluctuations, dependence and contagion effects in economics and finance. It covers important topics in statistical modeling and estimation, which combine the notions of copulas and heavy tails — two particularly valuable tools of today's research in economics, finance, econometrics and other fields — in order to provide a new way of thinking about such vital problems as diversification of risk and propagation of crises through financial markets due to contagion phenomena, among others. The aim is to arm today's economists with a toolbox suited for analyzing multivariate data with many outliers and with arbitrary dependence patterns. The methods and topics discussed and used in the book include, in particular, majorization theory, heavy-tailed distributions and copula functions — all applied to study robustness of economic, financial and statistical models, and estimation methods to heavy tails and dependence."--Publisher's website.

Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics

Author : Mehmet Terzioğlu
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 1839624868
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (396 download)

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Book Synopsis Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics by : Mehmet Terzioğlu

Download or read book Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics written by Mehmet Terzioğlu and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2021-03-17 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of experimental economics and econometric methods increases with each passing day as data quality and software performance develops. New econometric models are developed by diverging from earlier cliché econometric models with the emergence of specialized fields of study. This book, which is expected to be an extensive and useful reference by bringing together some of the latest developments in the field of econometrics, also contains quantitative examples and problem sets. We thank all the authors who contributed to this book with their studies that provide extensive and accessible explanations of the existing econometric methods.

Research on Volatility and Contagion Effect in Stock Market

Author : Dexiang Mei
Publisher : Scientific Research Publishing, Inc. USA
ISBN 13 : 1649970536
Total Pages : 131 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (499 download)

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Book Synopsis Research on Volatility and Contagion Effect in Stock Market by : Dexiang Mei

Download or read book Research on Volatility and Contagion Effect in Stock Market written by Dexiang Mei and published by Scientific Research Publishing, Inc. USA. This book was released on 2020-12-06 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility has been one of the cores of the financial theory research, in addition to the stock markets is an important part of modern financial markets. Research on volatility and contagion effect in stock market is an important part of the theory of financial markets research. This book in-cludes the following four parts.

Genetic Programming

Author : Michael O'Neill
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3540786716
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Genetic Programming by : Michael O'Neill

Download or read book Genetic Programming written by Michael O'Neill and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-04-03 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 11th European Conference on Genetic Programming, EuroGP 2008, took place in Naples, Italy from 26 to 28 March in the University of Naples Congress Centre with spectacular views over the Gulf of Naples. This volume contains the papers for the 21 oral presentations and 10 posters that were presented during this time. A diverse array of topics were covered re?ecting the current state of research in the ?eld of Genetic Programming, including the latest work on representations, theory, operators and analysis, evolvable hardware, agents and numerous applications. A rigorous, double-blind peer review process was employed, with each s- mission reviewed by at least three members of the international Program C- mittee. In total 61 papers were submitted this year, making an acceptance rate of 34% for full papers, and an overall acceptance rate of 51% including posters. S- mission of papers and the reviewing process were greatly assisted by the use of the MyReview management software originally developed by Philippe Rigaux, Bertrand Chardon and other colleagues from the Universit ́e Paris-Sud Orsay, France. We are especially grateful to Marc Schoenauer from INRIA, France for managing this system. Reviewers were asked to nominate keywords specifying their area of expertise, and these keywords were matched to those selected by the authors of the submitted papers with the assistance of the optimal assignment feature of the conference management software.

International Financial Markets

Author : Hung-Gay Fung
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1781903123
Total Pages : 195 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (819 download)

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Book Synopsis International Financial Markets by : Hung-Gay Fung

Download or read book International Financial Markets written by Hung-Gay Fung and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2013-09-06 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contributes to a fresh perspective on the economic and finance research on international financial markets and also the commodity markets by examining various factors that affect information transmission and pricing relation in the spot and derivatives markets in the United States and internationally.