Examining The Institutional Factors Affecting Cost Growth In Defense Acquisition Additional Insights May Yield More Effective Policy Interventions

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Examining the Institutional Factors Affecting Cost Growth in Defense Acquisition: Additional Insights May Yield More Effective Policy Interventions

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (713 download)

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Book Synopsis Examining the Institutional Factors Affecting Cost Growth in Defense Acquisition: Additional Insights May Yield More Effective Policy Interventions by :

Download or read book Examining the Institutional Factors Affecting Cost Growth in Defense Acquisition: Additional Insights May Yield More Effective Policy Interventions written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Defense Department suffers from persistent, but not certain, cost growth within major acquisition programs. Over the past few decades, scores of empirical studies have examined the causes and consequences of cost growth and have shed light on characteristics of programs that fail to meet cost-performance goals. The question motivating the present study is: given the materiality of the problem (hundreds of billions of dollars), the number of times it has been studied, the attention of the highest levels of government, and numerous attempts to reform acquisition, why does the problem persist? What have the studies missed? Two recent and important deviations from the norm of past studies focused less on the acquisition program and more on the decisions made by officials about the program. This paper was motivated by those studies and was further informed by various literatures, including behavioral finance, group decision-making psychology, and organizational failure. The paper makes the case for the application of a framework taken from the worlds of political science and sociology to gain a better understanding of the problem of cost growth. The Institutional Analysis and Diagnosis (IAD) framework has been used to study the dynamics of complex decision-making processes involving collective resources. The data set is a collection of studies of defense acquisition cost growth from government organizations, academics, and think tanks. Using a software tool, the content of those reports is analyzed according to the IAD framework. The report then proposes a stream of research using the IAD framework -- in conjunction with theories of behavior finance, group decision-making, and organizational failure -- to improve our understanding of the dynamics and factors that result in cost growth. This framework has been successfully employed in other contexts to perform both qualitative field research and laboratory experimentation. (13 briefing charts are included).

Performance of the Defense Acquisition System - 2013 Annual Report - 28 June 2013

Author : United States Government US Army
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781492187127
Total Pages : 126 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (871 download)

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Book Synopsis Performance of the Defense Acquisition System - 2013 Annual Report - 28 June 2013 by : United States Government US Army

Download or read book Performance of the Defense Acquisition System - 2013 Annual Report - 28 June 2013 written by United States Government US Army and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2013-08-18 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the United States achieves its national security missions by equipping its military forces with the best weapons systems in the world, questions continue about the performance of the defense acquisition system. How effective is it? How can that effectiveness be objectively measured? Can we use those measures to affect behaviors with appropriate incentives or determine which policies and procedures improve results and which turn out to be misguided?Answering these questions requires more than opinion. It requires analysis of unbiased data to discover insights into underlying effects. These, in turn, will inform better policy and programmatic decisions.This is the first in a series of planned annual reports on the performance of the defense acquisition system-its programs, institutions, workforce, managers, executives, and industrial partners.By using objective data and analysis to measure performance, these reports will identify underlying drivers and inform future decisions on programs, policies, and processes.This first report focuses primarily on performance related to Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs). The report focuses on more in-depth indicators of system outcomes, particularly with respect to cost and schedule, and does so by looking at various institutional trends.* How does the portfolio of major programs perform over time? What has changed, how, and by how much?* Are there differences associated with leadership?* Are there differences among DoD organizations?* Are there differences among our industrial partners?This report also reflects results to date from the compliance of the Department of Defense (DoD) with the Improve Acquisition Act of 2010 on performance assessments of the defense acquisition system. While similarly motivated, our efforts will go beyond the specifics of this act to seek additional insights for improving the performance of the defense acquisition system.In addition, this study will be used in part to fulfill a recent request from the Office of Management and Budget for an evidence-based analytic study on acquisition performance.Readily available data allowed us to provide historical baselines on acquisition performance and some initial insights into whether performance has, or has not, improved recently. They also demonstrate that it can take many years to see the results of new policies, making it even more important to test and inform those policies. Although existing data can be effectively leveraged to improve our understanding, a lesson learned is that gaps remain; therefore, I initiated a strategic initiative to identify those key data gaps and begin selective collection of new data for future analysis. That work will continue, and will inform future reports.Since this initial report focuses primarily on analyzing MDAP development and early production information, it cannot be considered a complete picture of the entire acquisition system. Future reports will delve into areas such as contracting, acquisition of services, technology development, industrial base concerns, etc.Value obtained in acquisition is a balance of costs, benefits, and prudent risks. Risks are a fact of life in acquiring the kinds of products our warfighters need, and these risks must be objectively managed. Additionally, demands and threats do change in both the short and long term, so the acquisition system must be able to respond. In some cases, cost growth results from prudent changes in quantity or capability of acquired systems. Our ultimate measure of performance is providing effective systems to the warfighter that are suitable for fielding, at costs that are affordable, while ensuring taxpayers' money is spent as productively as possible. Only through rigorous analysis and clear reporting will we be able to separate and account for acceptable and unacceptable types of cost growth, informing our discussions within DoD, with Congress, our Allies, and the American public.

Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth

Author : Joseph George Bolten
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833042890
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth by : Joseph George Bolten

Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.

Defense Acquisitions

Author : Gene L. Dodaro
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437983650
Total Pages : 195 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)

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Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Gene L. Dodaro

Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Gene L. Dodaro and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-06 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes observations on the performance of DoD's 2010 portfolio of 98 major defense acquisition programs; data on selected factors that can affect program outcomes; an assessment of the knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process for a subset of 40 programs; and observations on the implementation of acquisition reforms. To conduct this review, the auditor analyzed cost, schedule, and quantity data and collected data from program offices on performance requirements and software development; technology, design, and manufacturing knowledge; and the implementation of DoD's acquisition policy and acquisition reforms. He also compiled assessments of 71 weapon programs. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.

Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing?

Author : Obaid Younossi
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833041355
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? by : Obaid Younossi

Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.

An Analysis of the Impact of Defense Acquisition Reforms and External Factors on Schedule Growth of Defense Weapon Systems

Author : Michael P. Giacomazzi (III.)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (181 download)

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Book Synopsis An Analysis of the Impact of Defense Acquisition Reforms and External Factors on Schedule Growth of Defense Weapon Systems by : Michael P. Giacomazzi (III.)

Download or read book An Analysis of the Impact of Defense Acquisition Reforms and External Factors on Schedule Growth of Defense Weapon Systems written by Michael P. Giacomazzi (III.) and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Defense Acquisition Guidebook Volume 1: Chapters 1-7 November 2012

Author : United States Government Defense Acquisition University
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781481271240
Total Pages : 688 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (712 download)

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Book Synopsis Defense Acquisition Guidebook Volume 1: Chapters 1-7 November 2012 by : United States Government Defense Acquisition University

Download or read book Defense Acquisition Guidebook Volume 1: Chapters 1-7 November 2012 written by United States Government Defense Acquisition University and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-12-16 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is Volume 1 of the November 2012 version of the Defense Acquisition Guidebook. It contains chapters 1 through 7.The Defense Acquisition Guidebook is designed to complement policy documents by providing the acquisition workforce with discretionary best practice that should be tailored to the needs of each program. Acquisition professionals should use this Guidebook as a reference source supporting their management responsibilities. Depending on the subject matter, a chapter may contain general background information, tutorial discussions, and/or discussions of the detailed requirements for each milestone decision and phase. All chapters contain non-mandatory staff expectations for satisfying the mandatory requirements in DoD Instruction 5000.02 Each chapter is designed to improve understanding of the acquisition process and ensure adequate knowledge of the statutory and regulatory requirements associated with the process. Discussions, explanations, and links to related information enable the reader to be efficient, effective, innovative, and disciplined, and to responsively provide warfighting capability. Each chapter lists potential ways the program manager or assigned manager can satisfy mandatory process requirements and meet staff expectations for other activities. Differences of view regarding discretionary practice will be resolved by the Milestone Decision Authority. Chapter 1, Department of Defense Decision Support Systems, presents an overview of the Defense Department's decision support systems for strategic planning and resource allocation, the determination of capability needs, and the acquisition of systems.Chapter 2, Program Strategies, provides information and guidance needed to develop a Technology Development Strategy and to develop and maintain a program-level Acquisition Strategy. Chapter 3, Affordability and Life-cycle Resource Estimates, addresses acquisition program affordability and resource estimation and describes the concept of program life-cycle cost and the processes for conducting Analysis of Alternatives. The chapter discusses specific milestone review procedures, expectations, and best practices for a variety of topics related to acquisition program affordability, cost, and manpower. The chapter further describes the role of both DoD Component cost estimates and independent cost estimates in support of the DoD acquisition system. Chapter 4, Systems Engineering , outlines DoD guidance on systems engineering, and explains expectations for completing the Systems Engineering Plan (SEP). The chapter describes standard systems engineering processes and how they apply to the DoD acquisition system. It addresses the systems engineering principles that a program manager should apply to achieve a balanced system solution. Chapter 5, Life-cycle Logistics , provides the associated guidance the Program Manager (PM), Product Support Manager (PSM), and Life-Cycle Logisticians can use in influencing the design and providing effective product support. Chapter 6, Human Systems Integration , addresses the human systems elements of the systems engineering process. It will help the program manager design and develop systems that effectively and affordably integrate with human capabilities and limitations; and it makes the program manager aware of the staff resources available to assist in this endeavor. Chapter 7, Acquiring Information Technology, Including National Security Systems , explains how the Department of Defense complies with statutory and regulatory requirements for acquiring Information Technology and National Security Systems and in using a network-centric strategy to transform DoD warfighting, business, and intelligence capabilities. The chapter also provides descriptions and explanations of the Clinger-Cohen Act and many other associated topics and concepts, and discusses many of the activities that enable the development of net-centric systems.

Improving Defense Acquisition

Author : Jonathan P. Wong
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781977408624
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (86 download)

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Book Synopsis Improving Defense Acquisition by : Jonathan P. Wong

Download or read book Improving Defense Acquisition written by Jonathan P. Wong and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this report, researchers describe overarching trends that affect defense acquisition, outline challenges in the defense acquisition process, and suggest improvements that might help address those challenges. The study is informed by open-source documents and insights from publicly available RAND Corporation defense acquisition research, especially reports published since 1986, when a similar review of RAND research was published.

Extreme Cost Growth

Author : Mark A. Lorell
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Extreme Cost Growth by : Mark A. Lorell

Download or read book Extreme Cost Growth written by Mark A. Lorell and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Prepared for the United States Air Force."

Price-based Acquisition

Author : Mark A. Lorell
Publisher : Minnesota Historical Society
ISBN 13 : 9780833037886
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (378 download)

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Book Synopsis Price-based Acquisition by : Mark A. Lorell

Download or read book Price-based Acquisition written by Mark A. Lorell and published by Minnesota Historical Society. This book was released on 2005 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents findings from a research study conducted by RAND Project AIR FORCE, a division of the RAND Corporation, to examine the effects of using price-based acquisition (PBA) approaches for the development and production of major Air Force weapon systems, subsystems, and other military-unique articles. Typically in these cases, the cost-based acquisition (CBA) approach is used-i.e., the price to develop and produce such an article is based on cost data that the government requires the contractor to provide. Critics of this traditional, CBA method see it as imposing heavy regulatory burdens on the government and the contractor and tending to discourage potential non-defense contractors from competing for government contracts, thus reducing competition and quality and increasing cost.

Tailoring the Acquisition Process in the U.S Department of Defense

Author : Megan McKernan
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Tailoring the Acquisition Process in the U.S Department of Defense by : Megan McKernan

Download or read book Tailoring the Acquisition Process in the U.S Department of Defense written by Megan McKernan and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Regulations and guidance have permitted tailoring of the acquisition process as one of many ways in which the acquisition workforce can more efficiently achieve program objectives. Tailoring is frequently mentioned in regulations and guidance. Policy allows, and even encourages, program managers to customize regulation-based reviews, processes, and information requirements to accommodate the unique characteristics of a program while still meeting the regulations' intent for appropriate decision criteria and oversight processes. The extent to which programs take advantage of opportunities to tailor processes and documentation is not clear, but anecdotal evidence suggests that tailoring is more difficult in practice than guidance suggests. Widespread use of tailoring appears to be constrained by a variety of factors inherent in defense acquisition. The exploratory research reported here reviewed the literature and conducted interviews within the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the RAND Corporation to determine whether this policy area would benefit from additional in-depth research."--Back cover.

Quantifying Cost and Schedule Uncertainty for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs)

Author : Thomas Light
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780833096654
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (966 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantifying Cost and Schedule Uncertainty for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) by : Thomas Light

Download or read book Quantifying Cost and Schedule Uncertainty for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) written by Thomas Light and published by . This book was released on 2017-08-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "To help the Air Force better anticipate cost and schedule challenges and manage programs throughout their life cycles, this study developed a methodology that can be used to evaluate the likelihood of cost growth and schedule slip for major defense acquisition projects (MDAPs) based on program characteristics observable at milestone (MS) B. RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) has developed and maintains a comprehensive database of program cost and schedule information obtained by analyzing and summarizing the contents of Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) from the inception of each program through the latest out-of-cycle and annual SARs submitted as part of each year's President's Budget. From this database, the authors calculate cost and schedule factors that serve as the outcome metrics for assessing MDAP performance from MS B to the final or FY14 President's Budget SAR. PAF's ongoing SAR analyses have led to the creation of models that can be used to assess at program inception the risk of future cost growth and schedule slip. This document describes the technical approach and findings of this work. It should be of interest to analysts concerned with MDAP cost and schedule growth issues"--Table of contents page.

Optimizing U.S. Air Force and Department of Defense Review of Air Force Acquisition Programs

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309140846
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Optimizing U.S. Air Force and Department of Defense Review of Air Force Acquisition Programs by : National Research Council

Download or read book Optimizing U.S. Air Force and Department of Defense Review of Air Force Acquisition Programs written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-06-29 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Department of Defense (DOD) spends over $300 billion each year to develop, produce, field and sustain weapons systems (the U.S. Air Force over $100 billion per year). DOD and Air Force acquisitions programs often experience large cost overruns and schedule delays leading to a loss in confidence in the defense acquisition system and the people who work in it. Part of the DOD and Air Force response to these problems has been to increase the number of program and technical reviews that acquisition programs must undergo. This book looks specifically at the reviews that U.S. Air Force acquisition programs are required to undergo and poses a key question: Can changes in the number, content, or sequence of reviews help Air Force program managers more successfully execute their programs? This book concludes that, unless they do it better than they are now, Air Force and DOD attempts to address poor acquisition program performance with additional reviews will fail. This book makes five recommendations that together form a gold standard for conduct of reviews and if implemented and rigorously managed by Air Force and DOD acquisition executives can increase review effectiveness and efficiency. The bottom line is to help program managers successfully execute their programs.

Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs by :

Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.

Rethinking Acquisition Reform: Cost-Growth Solutions May Aggravate More Important Problems

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Rethinking Acquisition Reform: Cost-Growth Solutions May Aggravate More Important Problems by :

Download or read book Rethinking Acquisition Reform: Cost-Growth Solutions May Aggravate More Important Problems written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is increasing dissatisfaction with cost growth in major defense acquisition programs. Cost growth crowds out other investments, stresses budgets or causes schedule slips, all of which result in a military force that is less capable than previously expected. Several recent studies have recommended two categories of reforms: capital budgeting reforms seek stability in acquisition accounts, and rational cost model reforms seek to reduce the percentage increase of final cost over budget estimates. In both categories, undesirable secondary effects may be worse than the desirable primary effects; specifically, reforms that reduce cost growth may do so by driving total costs higher. This study examines these reforms and discusses their secondary effects. The paper concludes that the current practice of generating low estimates, coupled with dissatisfaction with cost growth may best serve to limit total cost.

Defense Acquisitions

Author : United States Government Accountability Office
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781976203671
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : United States Government Accountability Office

Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by United States Government Accountability Office and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-09-19 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Department of Defense (DOD) weapon programs often experience significant cost and schedule problems because they are allowed to start with too many technical unknowns and not enough knowledge about the development and production risks they entail. GAO was asked to review the department's Analysis of Alternatives (AOA) process-a key first step in the acquisition process intended to assess the operational effectiveness, costs, and risks of alternative weapon system solutions for addressing a validated warfighting need. This report (1) examines whether AOAs have been effective in identifying the most promising options and providing a sound rationale for weapon program initiation, (2) determines what factors have affected the scope and quality of AOAs, and (3) assesses whether recent DOD policy changes will enhance the effectiveness of AOAs. To meet these objectives, GAO efforts included collecting information on AOAs from 32 major defense acquisition programs, reviewing guidance and other documents, and interviewing subject matter experts. GAO is recommending that DOD establish criteria and guidance for

An Initial Look at Technology and Institutions on Defense Industry Consolidation

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (742 download)

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Book Synopsis An Initial Look at Technology and Institutions on Defense Industry Consolidation by :

Download or read book An Initial Look at Technology and Institutions on Defense Industry Consolidation written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom holds that defense industry consolidation resulted from decreased defense spending. However, we maintain that understanding dynamic changes in key defense institutions helps provide a more complete explanation for observed consolidation. Specifically, we examine the interaction of evolving technology and changing institutions. Institutions reviewed include procurement policies, the weapons requirements process, and procurement organizations. We take an initial look at the industry, and highlight how these changes influenced transaction costs in the defense industry, more fully explain the forces driving consolidation, and provide greater insight to policy makers seeking to improve the performance of the defense industry. Further research is needed to build a robust institutional framework of the defense industry and the related government agencies to allow better policy prescriptions.