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Essays On Uncertainty And Exchange Rate Policy
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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty by : Jagdeep S. Bhandari
Download or read book Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty written by Jagdeep S. Bhandari and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1987 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These twelve essays take up economic management under flexible exchange rates in the presence of uncertainty. Nearly all of the contributions adopt a rational expectations framework, focusing on the stochastic aspects of the assumption and exploring the variability of, for example, output and prices in relation to the variability of various external disturbances.Jagdeep Bhandari is Associate Professor of International Economics at West Virginia University.
Book Synopsis Essays on Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Policy by : Nicholas Tsaveas
Download or read book Essays on Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Policy written by Nicholas Tsaveas and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates by : David G. Dickinson
Download or read book Monetary Policy, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates written by David G. Dickinson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Max Fry was known internationally for his research on international and domestic financial issues. This book draws together contributions from a range of academic and policy-making friends and colleagues.
Book Synopsis Exchange-rate Variability and Trade by : Jan Kees Martijn
Download or read book Exchange-rate Variability and Trade written by Jan Kees Martijn and published by Purdue University Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains essays on the impact of exchange-rate variability on trade policy and trade flows
Book Synopsis Essays on Uncertainty and Monetary Policy by : Alex Ilek
Download or read book Essays on Uncertainty and Monetary Policy written by Alex Ilek and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays by : Anastasios G Malliaris
Download or read book Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays written by Anastasios G Malliaris and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2005-10-03 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The compendium of papers in this volume focuses on aspects of economic uncertainty, financial instabilities and asset bubbles.Economic uncertainty is modeled in continuous time using the mathematical techniques of stochastic calculus. A detailed treatment of important topics is provided, including the existence and uniqueness of asymptotic economic growth, the modeling of inflation and interest rates, the decomposition of inflation and its volatility, and the extension of the quantity theory of money to allow for randomness.The reader is also introduced to the methods of chaotic dynamics, and this methodology is applied to asset pricing, the European equity markets, and the multi-fractality in foreign currency markets.Since the techniques of stochastic calculus and chaotic dynamics do not readily accommodate the presence of stochastic bubbles, several papers discuss in depth the presence of financial bubbles in asset prices, and econometric work is performed to link such bubbles to monetary policy.Finally, since bubbles often burst rather than deflate slowly, the last section of the book studies the crash of October 1987 as well as other crashes of national equity markets due to the Persian gulf crisis.
Book Synopsis Decision-making, Uncertainty and the Predictability of Financial Markets: Essays on Interest Rates, Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates by : Frederik Kunze
Download or read book Decision-making, Uncertainty and the Predictability of Financial Markets: Essays on Interest Rates, Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates written by Frederik Kunze and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Approved for entry into archive by E_N Degenhardt_Herre (edisssub.uni-goettingen.de) on 2018-05-24T08:13:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertation_final_F_Kunze.pdf: 2905357 bytes, checksum: c5f35a705b1704db5d35be3e1399826b (MD5)...
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Global Transmission of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty by : Birendra Budha
Download or read book Three Essays on Global Transmission of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty written by Birendra Budha and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: investigate the global spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty in these three essays. In the first chapter, I focus on the impact of uncertainty on the macroeconomic activity of other advanced and emerging economies. I find that an increase in US monetary policy uncertainty reduces output, investment, consumption, exports, and imports in these economies. Such adverse effects are larger in relatively open than closed economies in trade and capital flows. Central banks around the world respond to heightened uncertainty by cutting policy rates, which is further validated by the evidence from central bank minutes. In the second chapter, I examine asset price spillovers from US monetary policy uncertainty to global asset prices. An increase in US monetary policy uncertainty raises sovereign yields and depreciates exchange rates in advanced and emerging economies. A higher level of uncertainty weakens the global transmission of US monetary policy to asset prices. Spillovers from uncertainty to asset prices are larger for the countries with high trade integration, but such effects on sovereign yields are larger only in advanced economies with higher financial integration and the exchange rate peg than the flexible regime. The third chapter investigates how uncertainty about US monetary policy affects cross-border bank flows. I find that an increase in US monetary policy uncertainty reduces cross-border bank lending. In response to higher uncertainty, banks reallocate their portfolio from foreign to domestic borrowers. Such cross-border effects are found to be higher in countries with low capital controls.
Book Synopsis Risk and Uncertainty in Economics by : David G. Dickinson
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty in Economics written by David G. Dickinson and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1994 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What impact do random events have on individuals? How do they adapt to living in an uncertain stochastic environment? This work pays tribute to the contribution of James L. Ford to our understanding of these themes.
Book Synopsis Three Essays in International Macroeconomics by : Ivan Pentchev Tchakarov
Download or read book Three Essays in International Macroeconomics written by Ivan Pentchev Tchakarov and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dollars Deficits & Trade by : James A. Dorn
Download or read book Dollars Deficits & Trade written by James A. Dorn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays in this volume are timelyand provocative. They address the key issues of the changing world economy and consider the implications ofthe erosion ofthe rule oflaw that has occurred both domestically and internationally to an increasing degree over the past halfcentury. The debates over the role of the dollar in the international econ omy, the future shape ofthe international monetary system and the exchange rate regime, the significance ofthe U.S. twin deficits, and the rise of nontariffbarriers to world trade deserve serious attention. Atthe bottom ofthese debates lie differing conceptions ofeconomic policy and the role of government in a free society. Adam Smith's vision ofa limited democracy operating to protect persons and prop erty has been increasinglyreplaced by a vision ofapaternalistic state that is designed to protect special interests at the expense of the larger society. Many of the contributors to this volume point to the lack oflong-run rules designed to promote sound money, fiscal integ rity, and open markets asthe fundamental flawofmodern democratic governments. Although the authors disagree on the specific rules to adopt, the consensus is that a constitutional perspective is needed to ensure astable worldorder. Moreover, since such aperspective must bedeveloped at home before it can spread among nations, the search for optimal international policy coordination is generally seen as misguided. Many ofthe essays in this volume were initially presented at the Cato Institute's Sixth Annual Monetary Conference held in Wash ington, D.C., February 25-26, 1988.
Book Synopsis Essays on Macroeconomic Performance Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes by : Christian Miguel Broda
Download or read book Essays on Macroeconomic Performance Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes written by Christian Miguel Broda and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: (Cont.) Uncertainty and the behavior of the monetary authority can affect the wage setting behavior of private agents. Under a peg, agents require a wage premium relative to floats, to be compensated for the higher variability in employment. This, in turn, implies a higher consumption based price level. However, an endogenous choice of the exchange rate regime and a less than fully accommodating policy in floats can potentially undo this result. Finally, the third chapter provides a simple dynamic framework to study the relation between the banking sector's safety nets and the share of foreign currency (dollar) deposits. When deposit and bank insurance schemes that do not discriminate between currencies they introduce a cross-transfer from local currency (peso) to dollar deposits that favors deposit dollarization and results in an increased currency exposure of banks. Second, the presence of a lender of last resort, by reducing the cost of risk to banks, stimulates dollar financing.
Book Synopsis Essays on Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies by : Vladimir Nikolayevich Klyuev
Download or read book Essays on Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies written by Vladimir Nikolayevich Klyuev and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on International Financial and Monetary Interactions by : Kemal Burak Bekircan
Download or read book Three Essays on International Financial and Monetary Interactions written by Kemal Burak Bekircan and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation develops three essays on safe haven currency behavior and international monetary interactions. Essay one notes the dramatic appreciation of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis all world currencies, along with its reversal after a year on the account of the Great Recession. This paper investigates bilateral U.S. dollar exchange rate movements during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. I find that increasing global market uncertainty has a significant and consistent effect in strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This striking finding suggests flight-to-safety phenomenon of foreign investors, and repatriation of capital flows to the United States by the U.S. investors during and after the last financial crisis. This essay also demonstrates that global investors consider the 3-month and 1-year T-bill, the 5-year T-note, and the 20-year T-bond as the strongest safe haven instruments that can be bought and sold in U.S. dollars. In essay two, it is noted that existing literature assumes that the euro is a safe haven currency but there is no evidence whether it actually behaves as a safe haven. This essay studies the validity of the safe haven hypothesis for the euro. A safe haven currency works as a hedge in the face of extreme market uncertainty. The results of this research imply that the euro is a safe haven currency if the market uncertainty originates in the U.S. market. I show that there is no significant evidence to suggest that the euro serves as a safe haven currency if the uncertainty originates in the Euro-area. From the standpoint of world investors, however, this paper does not find any Euro-area safe haven asset (other than cash) using the EURO STOXX 50 Index as a measure of uncertainty. Essay three studies whether the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve have an influence on monetary policy implementations of each other and other major industrialized countries since the advent of the euro. I find that the Federal Reserve causes an endogenous monetary policy response in the Euro-area, and in other non-US G7 countries, with the exception of Japan, during the conventional monetary policy period of the post-euro era. I also show that exogenous Euro-area conventional monetary policy innovations cause foreign monetary policy endogeneity in Canada and the UK, but do not cause similar endogeneity in the US and Japan. I define foreign monetary policy endogeneity as the reaction of G7 monetary authorities (that persists for at least two time periods) following a monetary policy innovation of the other. The results of this chapter further reveal that, with respect to the G7 economies, U.S. unconventional monetary policy shocks induce endogenous policy reactions only in Japan during the Great Recession and its aftermath. Unconventional monetary policy innovations by the European Central Bank, instead, lead to a response by the monetary authorities of Japan, the UK, and the US.
Book Synopsis Natural Resources, Uncertainty, and General Equilibrium Systems by : Alan S. Blinder
Download or read book Natural Resources, Uncertainty, and General Equilibrium Systems written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Natural Resources, Uncertainty, and General Equilibrium Systems: Essays in Memory of Rafael Lusky compiles a collection of works by economists who had been friends and colleagues of Rafael Lusky, a teacher in the University of Florida and contributor to theoretical resource economics. This book is divided into four sections— natural resources, uncertainty, general equilibrium systems, and policy and applications. In these sections, this text specifically discusses the resource depletion with technological uncertainty and the Rawlsian fairness principle; monopoly, uncertainty, and exploration; and price discrimination under uncertainty. The insurance theoretic aspects of workers' compensation; adverse selection and optimum insurance policies; and difficulty with Keynesian models of aggregate demand are also elaborated. This compilation likewise deliberates the exchange model of bilateral trade; optimal taxes on foreign lending; and extended linear permanent expenditure system (ELPES). This publication is a useful reference for economists and students concerned with theoretical resource economics.
Book Synopsis Essays on Economic Uncertainty and Macro-finance by : Yang Liu
Download or read book Essays on Economic Uncertainty and Macro-finance written by Yang Liu and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies topics in macro-finance with a focus on economic uncertainty. The first chapter (Government Debt and Risk Premia) studies the implications of government debt for asset prices. I document a set of new facts that government debt is related to risk premia in various asset markets.First, the debt-to-GDP ratio positively predicts excess stock returns. The forecast power is compelling, and it outperforms many popular predictors. Second, higher debt-to-GDP ratio is correlated with higher credit risk premia in both corporate bond excess returns and yield spreads. Third, higher debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with lower real risk-free rate. Fourth, higher debt-to-GDP ratio predicts lower average returns on government debt. Expected return variation contributes to a sizable amount of the volatility of the debt-to-GDP ratio. Fifth, debt-to-GDP ratio positively comoves with fiscal policy uncertainty. Fiscal uncertainty also has direct effects on the asset prices consistent with the effect of debt-to-GDP ratio. I rationalize these empirical findings in a general equilibrium model featuring recursive preferences, endogenous growth, and time-varying fiscal uncertainty. In the model, the tax risk premium is sizable and its time variation is driven by fiscal uncertainty. Furthermore, the model generates an endogenous positive relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and fiscal uncertainty: fiscal uncertainty increases debt valuation through discount rate channel whereas higher debt conversely raises uncertainty in future fiscal consolidations. In the second chapter (Volatility Risk Pass-Through), we estimate and explain the international transmission of output volatility shocks to both currencies and international quantity dynamics. We produce novel empirical evidence on the relevance of output volatility (vol) shocks for both currency and international quantity dynamics. Focusing on G-17 countries, we document several facts: (1) consumption and output vols are imperfectly correlated within countries; (2) across countries, consumption vol is more correlated than output vol; (3) the pass-through of relative output vol shocks onto relative consumption vol is moderate, especially if the uncertainty shocks originate from small countries; and (4) consumption differentials vol and exchange rate vol are disconnected, in contrast to the perfect correlation implied by a model of perfect risk-sharing with time-additive preferences. We rationalize these findings in a frictionless model with multiple goods and recursive preferences featuring a novel-and-rich risk-sharing of vol shocks. The third chapter (Volatility, Intermediaries, and Exchange Rates) studies how financial market volatility drives exchange rates through the risk management practice of financial intermediaries. We build a model in which the major participants in the international financial market are levered intermediaries subject to Value-at-Risk constraints. Higher portfolio volatility translates into tighter funding conditions and increased marginal value of wealth. Thus, foreign currency is expected to appreciate. Our model can resolve the Backus-Smith puzzle, the forward premium puzzle, and the exchange rate volatility puzzle quantitatively. Our empirical test verifies two implications of the model that both financial market volatility and funding condition measurement have predictive power on exchange rates.
Book Synopsis Three Essays in Monetary Policy by : Alessandro Flamini
Download or read book Three Essays in Monetary Policy written by Alessandro Flamini and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three papers on monetary policy. The first analyzes how endogenous imperfect exchange rate pass-through affects inflation targeting optimal monetary policies in a New Keynesian small open economy. The paper shows that an inverse relation exists between the pass-through and the insulation of the economy from foreign and monetary policy shocks, and that imperfect pass-through tends to decrease the variability of the terms of trade. The second paper focuses on optimal monetary policy in presence of uncertainty of the structural parameters in an open economy. Comparing CPI and domestic inflation targeting, it shows that the latter implies considerably less variability in the distribution forecast of the economic dynamics. The third paper argues that estimated linear monetary policy rules are weighted averages of the actual rules working in the diverse monetary regimes, where the weights merely reflect the length and not necessarily the relevance of the regimes.
