Essays On Mutual Fund Performance And Predictability

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Essays on Mutual Fund Performance and Predictability

Author : Yu Xia
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Mutual Fund Performance and Predictability by : Yu Xia

Download or read book Essays on Mutual Fund Performance and Predictability written by Yu Xia and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This thesis consists of two essays on evaluating mutual fund performance and its predictability. In the first essay, I study the ex ante predictability of 12 well-known predictors for fund performance from investors' perspective. The 12 predictors cover three major categories: fund characteristics, fund performance, and holding-based activeness measures, which are constructed using real-time information. For performance evaluation, I exploit two types of fund picking strategies with either rule-based approach or machine learning methods and find that utilizing machine learning can deliver superior real-time economic gains for investors with fund short-term performance being the primary driver underlying predictability. Specifically, using variable selection methods such as LASSO and elastic net at individual predictor level can generate annual 1.3%-1.7% real-time alphas after adjusting for standard risk factors. The essay further examines whether real-world investors react to those well-known predictors when evaluating mutual fund performance. Using a novel approach to decomposing fund returns, I find that conditional on investors' usage of CAPM, investors react to the components of CAPM alpha implied by predictors in different ways, and investor reaction to predictive information embedded in predictors is stronger within aggressive growth funds. These results provide empirical support for Gârleanu and Pedersen (2018) and suggest ex ante predictability exists not due to lack of investor reaction but as the compensation for employing costly algorithms to identify skilled managers.The second essay examines how decision-making hierarchy in team-managed U.S. equity mutual funds affects their performance and risk-taking behavior. Employing a unique hand-collected dataset, we find that vertically-managed funds with lead managers earn 75 bps per year lower Fama-French five-factor alpha than their horizontally-managed counterparts. Moreover, vertically-managed funds hold less concentrated portfolios and are exposed to lower residual risk, thus showing signs of inferior security selection ability. Using mutual fund industry as a laboratory, the second essay provides evidence supporting a horizontal decision-making structure in organizations functioning in an uncertain expectation environment. These results echo similar mechanisms as in recent cross-country studies on the benefits of democratic form of government for country's economic growth"--

Essays on Market Microstructure and Return Predictability of Mutual Funds

Author : Ekaterina Serikova
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (114 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Market Microstructure and Return Predictability of Mutual Funds by : Ekaterina Serikova

Download or read book Essays on Market Microstructure and Return Predictability of Mutual Funds written by Ekaterina Serikova and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis contains three papers. Each paper addresses a distinct research question and is implemented on a separate dataset. The first paper concludes that daytime auctions, together with market opening and closing intervals, contribute to the periodicity of the cross-section of stock returns. By applying the model of infrequent rebalancing, I show that model parameters fit the data for the after-auction intervals. I thus conclude that after-auction periods take over a large share of infrequent rebalancing and show that this effect is driven by the concentration of liquidity traders. Small, low-fragmented stocks heavily traded on the home market show the strongest evidence for infrequent rebalancing after the daytime auctions. The second paper sheds light on how traders allocate risk of stock portfolios in a trading day. Traders decrease risk before the market close. They do so by selling stocks with the highest marginal risk and buying stocks that decrease the risk of their portfolio the most. As our measure of portfolio risk relates to the one that clearing houses use for the margin requirements, we conclude that the risk-reduction behavior is driven by traders' reluctance to provide end-of-day margin contributions to the CCP. These trading flows in the direction of risk contraction distort closing stock prices. The third paper replicates and combines eight prominent predictors of mutual fund returns to obtain a composite, aggregate fund predictor. While only three of the eight individual variables are significant predictors of future fund performance in a multivariate setting, the composite predictor has strong forecasting power. A hypothetical quintilebased long-short strategy based on the composite predictor realizes a four-factor alpha of 6% per year. The performance spread is robust to different regression specifications, is similar for different size classes and investment styles, and persists over time. Our results p.

Three Essays on the Strategies of Mutual Funds

Author : Zhi Wang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Three Essays on the Strategies of Mutual Funds by : Zhi Wang

Download or read book Three Essays on the Strategies of Mutual Funds written by Zhi Wang and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Two Essays On Mutual Funds

Author : Pramodkumar Yadav
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Two Essays On Mutual Funds by : Pramodkumar Yadav

Download or read book Two Essays On Mutual Funds written by Pramodkumar Yadav and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first essay examines whether fund flows of mutual fund family employees are smart. Using hand-collected data on investment of fund family employees, I show that employee flows predict fund performance up to two years. Moreover, employee flows lead flows of other investors, but not vice versa, further indicating that employee flows are smart. The predictive power of employee flows is stronger when fund family employees are located close to fund managers, pointing to employees exploiting their proximity to managers to learn about the managers' skill or effort. The results do not appear to be driven by ownership changes of portfolio managers themselves, family cross-subsidization efforts, plan design, or employee sophistication.The second essay (with Daniel Dorn) examines psychological cost of team structure in mutual fund industry. We show that team-managed mutual funds have a greater propensity to sell winners and hold losers than solo funds. This propensity is costly as winners sold outperform losers held by 56bp during the next quarter relative to stocks with similar size, book-to-market, and momentum characteristics. Disposition effects are strongest when positions are initiated by a subset of the team who thus bears special responsibility. In contrast, there is no disposition effect when positions are initiated by all team members. This suggests that the difficulty of admitting mistakes to peers (vanity), rather than conformity to in-group pressures (groupthink), poses a costly challenge for teams.

Essays in Asset Allocation

Author : Xin Gao
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays in Asset Allocation by : Xin Gao

Download or read book Essays in Asset Allocation written by Xin Gao and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of two essays in asset allocation. In the first essay, I explore the question of how investors should optimally incorporate commodities in their multi-asset portfolios, or even if they should at all. To tackle this problem, I conduct a comprehensive out-of-sample assessment on the economic value of commodities in multi-asset investment strategies for both mean-variance and non-mean-variance investors who exploit the predictability of time-varying asset return moments. With both monthly and quarterly rebalancing frequencies, I find that predictability makes the addition of commodities profitable even when short-selling and high leverage are not permitted. For instance, a mean-variance (non mean-variance) investor rebalancing quarterly, with moderate risk aversion and leverage, would be willing to pay up to 108 (155) basis points per year after transaction cost for adding commodities into her stock, bond and cash portfolio. In the second essay, I study the economic value generated by active equity mutual funds from an investor’s perspective. I employ an optimization-based portfolio approach to construct a composite investment strategy of U.S. active equity mutual funds. The strategy jointly exploits the conditioning information conveyed by multiple fund characteristics and macroeconomic variables about the cross-section of fund performance. Based on an extensive out-of-sample performance evaluation, I find that the proposed strategy consistently outperforms a large set of passive investments that rely on index funds as well as the strategies that exploit the fund characteristics on an individual basis. The outperformance is net of fees and expenses and after precluding short-sales and leverage. I further show that the proposed strategy’s superior performance derives from effectively exploiting the predictive power of distinct fund characteristics to shift portfolio allocation toward (away from) funds with future outperformance (underperformance) as market conditions evolve over time. The findings indicate that investing in active equity mutual funds can add significant economic value for investors if the time-varying predictability in fund performance is properly taken into account and if an optimal portfolio approach, as opposed to simpler strategies based on sorting or on equal-weighted schemes, is adopted.

Three Essays on Mutual Funds

Author : Xuemei Guo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (992 download)

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Book Synopsis Three Essays on Mutual Funds by : Xuemei Guo

Download or read book Three Essays on Mutual Funds written by Xuemei Guo and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation investigates the determinants of mutual fund flows and mutual fund performance. The first chapter examines the response of fund investors to style volatility and the impact of style volatility on the flow-performance relationship. Three main empirical findings are obtained using both a portfolio approach and a multivariate regression approach. First, I find that there is a significant positive relationship between the style volatility and the subsequent fund flows to mutual funds. This finding can be interpreted as either fund managers having style timing ability or fund managers catering to investors preferences or tastes. Second, the positive relationship between past style volatility and fund flows is less pronounced for funds with superior past performance. Lastly, fund style volatility has a dampening effect on the flow-performance relationship: the flow-performance sensitivity weakens by 12% when the past style volatility increases by one standard deviation. It is likely that performance is perceived as a less informative signal of investment ability for fund managers who follow inconsistent styles over time. The second chapter studies how the response of fund investors to past risk varies over business cycles. I employ the NBER boom indicator, the Consumer Sentiment Index, and the National Activity Index to proxy for economic conditions. I find that mutual fund investors react differently to risk across economic environments. Funds with more volatile past returns discourage fund investors. The investors’ demand for actively managed funds is higher under good market conditions. Fund flows are less responsive to risk during expansionary economic periods. This finding may indicate that fund investors are risk averse and become less risk averse in good market states. The third chapter empirically examines whether mutual fund performance is affected by prior family performance. I propose two testable hypotheses: the information and resource sharing hypothesis and the cross-fund subsidization hypothesis. The empirical findings suggest that there is a significant positive relationship between prior family performance and subsequent fund performance. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that mutual funds in the same family share informational resources. This positive relation also justifies the finding in the mutual fund flow literature that fund flows are higher for funds with higher past family performance. Furthermore, I find that the predictive power of the prior family performance is stronger in larger fund families.

Essays on Investor and Mutual Fund Behavior

Author : Andrew John Caffrey
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 178 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (132 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Investor and Mutual Fund Behavior by : Andrew John Caffrey

Download or read book Essays on Investor and Mutual Fund Behavior written by Andrew John Caffrey and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays on the relations among investors, mutual funds, and fund families. Chapter one presents a model of new fund openings as a function of the past performance of a family's existing funds. At the fund level, we model the relations among fund performance, investment flows, and the risk-taking behavior of the fund manager. Our model predicts that families dominated either by outperforming funds or by underperforming funds are more likely to open a new fund than are families composed of average performers. We predict that an asymmetric performance-fund flow relation combined with expected intra-family flows from existing underperformers to a new fund provide an incentive for families with severely under-performing funds to open a new fund in hopes of managing a `star'. Chapter two presents an empirical analysis of new fund openings. We study fund performance, investment flows, and risk level and examine the relation between the distribution of performance across funds within a family and new fund openings. We find that new fund openings are positively correlated with measures of both extreme underperformance and extreme outperformance of existing funds as well as measures of the number of `dog' funds within a family. The evidence supports our predictions in Chapter 1. Chapter three addresses the relation between advisory firm organization and mutual fund performance and expenses. Specifically, we hypothesize three relations. First, the ownership structure of a fund family--mutualized, privately held, or publicly owned--may impact fund manager behavior and be reflected in expenses and/or performance. Second, fund families may experience some net pecuniary benefit or harm as a result of subsidiary affiliation. Finally, we examine expense and performance differences across directly advised versus subadvised funds. We find evidence that publicly owned fund families provide investors with lower style-adjusted returns and alpha at higher cost than do privately owned or mutualized families. Similarly, we find that bank and insurance affiliates underperform their peers in both returns net of expenses and alpha net of expenses, and that diversified financial services affiliates outperform in these measures.

Essays on Mutual Funds

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Mutual Funds by :

Download or read book Essays on Mutual Funds written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first essay examines the relation between fund performance and stock selection process. I classify mutual funds into two groups according to their distinctive stock selection approaches: tire kickers who rely on fund managers' personal judgment and fundamental analysis to pick stocks, and quant jocks who use computer-based models to select stocks. I examine how the stock selection approach affects mutual fund performance and economies of scale. I document an increasing trend of quantitative techniques used by mutual funds, in addition to some unique characteristics of quant jocks. Quant jocks and tire kickers have similar factor-adjusted alphas, but quant jocks have higher Sharpe ratios. Quant jocks tend to be much smaller than tire kickers. I explore possible explanations for the size difference. I find that although quant jocks can cheaply screen a large universe of stocks, the stocks that quant jocks invest in are smaller and less liquid, which results in higher transaction costs and limited scalability of quantitative investment strategies. The second essay investigates mutual fund managers' private information about future stock returns as revealed in their portfolio holdings. Specifically, we develop three different stock alpha estimators to predict stock returns based on portfolio compositions and past performance of mutual funds. We find that investment strategies based on our stock alpha estimators perform well, when using information on recent fund holdings and fund purchases. This evidence suggests that fund managers' stock selection skills are quite persistent, and vary widely in the cross-section. We also compare our strategies with 12 quantitative investment signals based on market anomalies, and find that our strategies are not subsumed by these quantitative signals. Thus, our stock alpha estimators reflect private skills of active fund managers that are unrelated to known anomalies. Finally, we develop a conditional stock alpha estimator using information on stock characteristics and fund characteristics. Investment strategies based on the conditional stock alphas deliver further improved performance.

Three Essays in Measuring Mutual Fund Performance

Author : Fan Hu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (376 download)

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Book Synopsis Three Essays in Measuring Mutual Fund Performance by : Fan Hu

Download or read book Three Essays in Measuring Mutual Fund Performance written by Fan Hu and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Essays on Mutual Fund Activeness and Sustainability as a Flow Determinant

Author : Sebastian Fischer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Mutual Fund Activeness and Sustainability as a Flow Determinant by : Sebastian Fischer

Download or read book Essays on Mutual Fund Activeness and Sustainability as a Flow Determinant written by Sebastian Fischer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation contributes to two recent debates in the mutual fund literature: The impact of sustainability on mutual fund flows and the connection between fund activeness and mutual fund performance. In March 2016, Morningstar, one of the leading information providers in the mutual fund industry, introduced its mutual fund Sustainability Rating. The Rating provides investors with an easy-to-understand measure to identify funds that invest in accordance with high environmental, social, and governance standards. Chapter 1 investigates the effect of this Rating on mutual fund flows. An average high-rated retail fund receives up to USD 10.1 million higher net flows and an average low-rated retail fund suffers from up to USD 3.5 million lower net flows than an average-rated fund during the first year after the publication of the Rating. This result stresses the importance of sustainability as an investment criterion and the impact of the Sustainability Rating as a source of information to private investors. Chapters 2 through 4 examine whether the trading activity of a fund manager or fund activeness, that is the deviation of a fund portfolio from its benchmark, is linked to future performance. The fund literature has identified various activity measures that can predict fund returns. Chapter 2 shows that two of the most important measures, Active Share and the R2 selectivity measure, have not been good predictors after 2003 when controlling for different benchmark indices and alternative risk factors. Chapter 3 examines the investment performance of funds whose exposures to the risk factors of the Carhart model vary significantly over time. The analysis shows that funds with volatile factor weights achieve on average lower returns than funds with stable factor exposures. After testing for alternative explanations, this result provides evidence that fund managers fail to time risk factors. This finding also contributes to the current debate on whether risk factors can be timed. Chapter 4 addresses the question whether fund managers trade more in times of large market mispricing and, therefore, whether fund turnover is positively correlated to the subsequent fund performance. The results confirm respective findings from earlier research for an international mutual fund sample. They additionally show that this turnover-performance relationship is particularly strong in countries with highly skilled fund managers, who trade more in times of high market opportunities. Furthermore, the effect is stronger in markets with a low performance persistence.

Essays on Predictability of Emerging Markets Growth and Financial Performance

Author : Maria Ayelen Banegas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781124784649
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (846 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Predictability of Emerging Markets Growth and Financial Performance by : Maria Ayelen Banegas

Download or read book Essays on Predictability of Emerging Markets Growth and Financial Performance written by Maria Ayelen Banegas and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation seeks to better understand the underlying factors driving financial performance and economic activity in international markets. The first chapter "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates" tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of twenty-two emerging market economies. I use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of financial aggregates including valuation measures, interest rates, and capital flows. I find empirical evidence that stock returns, portfolio investment flows, the term spread and default spreads help predict output growth in emerging markets. In particular, large capital inflows predict subsequent high GDP growth as do high term spreads. Conversely, higher default spreads on emerging market government debt signals lower future GDP growth. Results also suggest that the performance of global aggregates such as commodity markets, a cross-sectional firm size factor, and returns on the market portfolio contain information about the future state of the economy. I benchmark my results against the US and find that there are differences in information flows and the role of capital markets in predicting economic growth. My analysis extends previous findings in the macro-finance literature on the links between the real economy and financial market performance. Within emerging markets, a largely unexplored area of research is related to the study of mutual funds performance. In my second chapter, "Emerging Market Mutual Fund Performance and the State of the Economy" I propose a set of asset class specific predictive variables and exploit them in order to identify those funds that outperform the market in different phases of the economic cycle. I employ a comprehensive survivorship-bias free universe of global and regional emerging market funds and use a Bayesian framework that incorporates predictability in manager skills (stock selection and benchmark timing skills), fund risk loadings and benchmark returns by exploiting ex-ante business cycle related state variables. Results provide empirical evidence of return predictability and the economic value of active management in emerging markets. My final dissertation chapter studies market integration and segmentation and their effects on return predictability. In "Mutual Fund Return Predictability in Partially Segmented Markets" (co-authored with B. Gillen, A. Timmermann and R. Wermers) we generalize existing models for Bayesian asset selection by considering both integrated and partially segmented market models. We find that regional state variables can be used to identify a significant time-varying alpha component among a large sample of funds with a pan- European, European country, or European sector focus. Specifically, the default yield spread, term spread, dividend yield, short interest rate and market volatility, as well as macroeconomic variables tracking consumer price inflation and growth in industrial production prove valuable in identifying, ex-ante, funds with superior performance. Our analysis also suggests that allowing for segmentation in market risk factors enhances risk-adjusted performance.

Essays on Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation with Clientele Effects

Author : Manel Kammoun
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 196 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (113 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation with Clientele Effects by : Manel Kammoun

Download or read book Essays on Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation with Clientele Effects written by Manel Kammoun and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis studies the performance evaluation of mutual funds from the point of view of their most favorable clienteles. It contains three essays in which we develop and adapt a performance measurement approach that accounts for investor disagreement and clientele effects to answer three research questions. In the first essay, we investigate investor disagreement and clientele effects in performance evaluation by developing a measure that considers the best potential clienteles of mutual funds. The measure is an upper performance bound in an incomplete market under the law-of-one-price condition and a no-good-deal condition that rules out investment opportunities with unreasonably high Sharpe ratios. We find that considering investor disagreement and focusing on the best potential clienteles lead to a generally positive performance for mutual funds. The total disagreement measured by the difference between upper and lower performance bounds is economically and statistically significant. In the second essay, we diagnose the validity of standard performance measures by comparing their alphas with the alpha from a performance measure that evaluates mutual funds from the point of view of their most favorable investors. The results show that unconditional linear factor models, their conditional versions and the law-of-one price measure give severe but admissible evaluations of fund performance. Consumption-based models suffer from an inadmissibility problem. The manipulation proof performance measure generates alphas that are sensitive to the choice of risk aversion parameter. In the third essay, we propose a clientele-specific performance evaluation based on the style preferences of mutual fund investors. Considering performance disagreement and better exploiting style classification data, we investigate eight measures to represent clienteles with favorable preferences for size and value equity styles. We find that funds assigned to size and value styles have neutral to positive average alphas when evaluated with their appropriate clientele-specific measure. The performance of the other funds is sensitive to the clienteles. Our findings support a significant role for style clienteles in performance evaluation.

Essays on Mutual Fund Performance and Organization

Author : Iordanis Karagiannidis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 354 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Mutual Fund Performance and Organization by : Iordanis Karagiannidis

Download or read book Essays on Mutual Fund Performance and Organization written by Iordanis Karagiannidis and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Portfolio Allocation

Author : Bradley Steele Paye
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Portfolio Allocation by : Bradley Steele Paye

Download or read book Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Portfolio Allocation written by Bradley Steele Paye and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Mutual Fund Performance and Performance Persistence

Author : Peter Lückoff
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3834927805
Total Pages : 604 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (349 download)

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Book Synopsis Mutual Fund Performance and Performance Persistence by : Peter Lückoff

Download or read book Mutual Fund Performance and Performance Persistence written by Peter Lückoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-01-13 with total page 604 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peter Lückoff investigates why fund flows and manager changes act as equilibrium mechanisms and drive the performance of both previously outperforming and previously underperforming funds back to average levels.

Predictability of mutual fund performance

Author : Adam Levinson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (151 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictability of mutual fund performance by : Adam Levinson

Download or read book Predictability of mutual fund performance written by Adam Levinson and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Three Essays on Return Predictability and Decentralized Investment Management

Author : Dashan Huang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (858 download)

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Book Synopsis Three Essays on Return Predictability and Decentralized Investment Management by : Dashan Huang

Download or read book Three Essays on Return Predictability and Decentralized Investment Management written by Dashan Huang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My research field is asset pricing with a focus on return predictability, innovation and market efficiency, and delegated investment management. In Chapter 1, "Maximum Return Predictability", I develop two theoretical upper bounds on the R2 of the regression of stock returns on predictive variables. Empirically, I found that the predictive R2s are significantly larger than the upper bounds, implying that existing asset pricing models are incapable of explaining the degree of return predictability. For example, the predictive R2 of the price dividend ratio for the U.S. market forecasting is 0.27% with monthly data. However, the theoretical upper bound is at most 0.07% with respect to CAPM, Fama-French three-factor model, CARA, habitat-formation model, long-run risk model, or rare disaster model. The finding of this paper suggests the development of new asset pricing models with new state variables that are highly correlated with stock returns. Recently, several papers found that the predictive power of almost all the existing macroeconomic variables exists only during economic recessions but does not exist over economic expansions. There perhaps have two reasons. First, existing predictors are individual economic variables and cannot capture the dynamics of the whole market. Second, the recognized predictive regression does not distinguish the varying ability of macro variables in forecasting the financial market. In Chapter 2, "Economic and Market Conditions: Two State Variables that Predict the Stock Market," Guofu Zhou and I identify two new predictors that capture the state of the economy and the state of the market condition, and found that the forecast of the market risk premium by the two predictors outperform a pooled forecast of dozens of existing predictors. Moreover, they forecast the stock market not only during down turns of the economy, but also during the up turns when other predictors fail. In decentralized investment management, there is always a friction between the principal and the manager. In Chapter 3, "The Servant of Two Masters: A Common Agency Explanation for Side-by-Side Management," I present a common agency model to study side-by-side (SBS) management in which a manager simultaneously manages two funds and separately contracts with the two different fund principals. The contracting is decentralized and includes two types of externalities: the manager's efforts are substitutable and the performance in one fund can generate a spillover effect on the other fund. The two principals can choose competition or free-riding. Under public contracting, competition is more likely to dominate free-riding. Under private contracting, however, free-riding becomes more important. In either case, SBS could generate better performance than standalone management.