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Equilibrium Commodity Prices With Irreversible Investment And Non Linear Technologies
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Book Synopsis Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-Linear Technologies by : Jaime Casassus
Download or read book Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-Linear Technologies written by Jaime Casassus and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We model oil price dynamics in a general equilibrium production economy with two goods: a consumption good and oil. Production of the consumption good requires drawing from oil reserves. Investment necessary to replenish oil reserves is costly and irreversible. We solve for the optimal consumption, production and oil reserves policy for a representative agent. We analyze the equilibrium price of oil, as well as the term structure of oil futures prices. Because investment in oil reserves is irreversible and costly, the optimal investment in new oil reserves is periodic and lumpy. Investment occurs when the crude oil is relatively scarce in the economy. This generates an equilibrium oil price process that has distinct behavior across two regions (characterized by the abundance/scarcity of oil). We undertake three empirical tests suggested by our model. First, we estimate key parameters using SMM to match moments of oil price futures as well as other macro-economic properties of the data. Second, we estimate an affine regime switching model of the oil price, which captures the main features of our equilibrium model and preserves the tractability of reduced-form models. Lastly, we compare the risk premium in oil futures implied by our model to the data.
Book Synopsis Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-linear Technology by : Jaime Casassus
Download or read book Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-linear Technology written by Jaime Casassus and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We model equilibrium spot and futures oil prices in a general equilibrium production economy. In our model production of the consumption good requires two inputs: the consumption good and a commodity, e.g., Oil. Oil is produced by wells whose flow rate is costly to adjust. Investment in new Oil wells is costly and irreversible. As a result in equilibrium, investment in Oil wells is infrequent and lumpy. Even though the state of the economy is fully described by a one-factor Markov process, the spot oil price is not Markov (in itself). Rather it is best described as a regime-switching process, the regime being an investment proximity' indicator. The resulting equilibrium oil price exhibits mean-reversion and heteroscedasticity. Further, the risk premium for exposure to commodity risk is time-varying, positive in the far-from-investment regime but negative in the near-investment regime. Further, our model captures many of the stylized facts of oil futures prices, such as backwardation and the Samuelson effect.' The futures curve exhibits backwardation as a result of a convenience yield, which arises endogenously. We estimate our model using the Simulated Method of Moments with economic aggregate data and crude oil futures prices. The model successfully captures the first two moments of the futures curves, the average non-durable consumption-output ratio, the average oil consumption-output and the average real interest rate. The estimation results suggest the presence of convex adjustment costs for the investment in new oil wells. We also propose and test a linear approximation of the equilibrium regime-shifting dynamics implied by our model, and test its empirical implication for time-varying risk-premia
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 by : Martin Eichenbaum
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-05-17 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 presents research-central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak examine unemployment dynamics during economic recoveries. They present new empirical findings and explore models in which the labor market gradually draws down the stock of unemployed workers in the aftermath of a downturn. Titan Alon, Sena Coskun, Matthias Doepke, David Koll, and Michèle Tertilt analyze the relative decline in employment of women during the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated global recession. They show that increased childcare needs, which fell more heavily on women, and differences in occupations both contributed. In the case of the US, however, each of these factors account for less than 20% of the gender gap in hours worked during the pandemic. Richard Rogerson and Johanna Wallenius study the employment rates of older workers in OECD countries over the last forty years. An expansion of institutions incentivizing retirement, concurrent with negative aggregate shocks between 1970 and 1995, led to falling employment rates. This trend started to reverse in the mid-1990s when many of these institutions, such as public pension programs, were cut back. Michael Barnett, William Brock, and Lars Peter Hansen explore the consequences of risk, ambiguity, and model misspecification in climate policy design. They consider carbon emissions pricing and the effects of different sources of uncertainty—such as future information about environmental damage, uncertainties in carbon and temperature dynamics and damage functions, and the role of future green technologies—on policy design. Michael Kremer, Jack Willis, and Yang You present new evidence suggesting a steady trend toward income convergence across countries since the late 1980s. They find convergence in various determinants of economic growth across countries and a flattening of the relationship between growth and these determinants. The paper challenges theories of growth arising after earlier rejections of the neoclassical growth model.
Book Synopsis Equilibrium Implications of Real Option Positions on the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Asset Prices, and Portfolio Choice by : Carles Vergara-Alert
Download or read book Equilibrium Implications of Real Option Positions on the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Asset Prices, and Portfolio Choice written by Carles Vergara-Alert and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Generalizing the Taylor Principle by : Troy Davig
Download or read book Generalizing the Taylor Principle written by Troy Davig and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recurring change in a monetary policy function that maps endogenous variables into policy choices alters both the nature and the efficacy of the Taylor principle---the proposition that central banks can stabilize the macroeconomy by raising their interest rate instrument more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation. A monetary policy process is a set of policy rules and a probability distribution over the rules. We derive restrictions on that process that satisfy a long-run Taylor principle and deliver unique equilibria in two standard models. A process can satisfy the Taylor principle in the long run, but deviate from it in the short run. The paper examines three empirically plausible processes to show that predictions of conventional models are sensitive to even small deviations from the assumption of constant-parameter policy rules.
Download or read book Monitoring Works written by Esther Duflo and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the rural areas of developing countries, teacher absence is a widespread problem. This paper tests whether a simple incentive program based on teacher presence can reduce teacher absence, and whether it has the potential to lead to more teaching activities and better learning. In 60 informal one-teacher schools in rural India, randomly chosen out of 120 (the treatment schools), a financial incentive program was initiated to reduce absenteeism. Teachers were given a camera with a tamper-proof date and time function, along with instructions to have one of the children photograph the teacher and other students at the beginning and end of the school day. The time and date stamps on the photographs were used to track teacher attendance. A teacher's salary was a direct function of his attendance. The remaining 60 schools served as comparison schools. The introduction of the program resulted in an immediate decline in teacher absence. The absence rate (measured using unannounced visits both in treatment and comparison schools) changed from an average of 42 percent in the comparison schools to 22 percent in the treatment schools. When the schools were open, teachers were as likely to be teaching in both types of schools, and the number of students present was roughly the same. The program positively affected child achievement levels: a year after the start of the program, test scores in program schools were 0.17 standard deviations higher than in the comparison schools and children were 40 percent more likely to be admitted into regular schools.
Book Synopsis NBER Reporter by : National Bureau of Economic Research
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Law and Economics of Self-dealing by : Simeon Djankov
Download or read book The Law and Economics of Self-dealing written by Simeon Djankov and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a new measure of legal protection of minority shareholders against expropriation by corporate insiders: the anti-self-dealing index. Assembled with the help of Lex Mundi law firms, the index is calculated for 72 countries based on legal rules prevailing in 2003, and focuses on private enforcement mechanisms, such as disclosure, approval, and litigation, governing a specific self-dealing transaction. This theoretically-grounded index predicts a variety of stock market outcomes, and generally works better than the commonly used index of anti-director rights.
Book Synopsis The Single Commodity Nonlinear Spatial Price Equilibrium Problem by : Nancy Morrow Brown
Download or read book The Single Commodity Nonlinear Spatial Price Equilibrium Problem written by Nancy Morrow Brown and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Stock Return Comovements by : Geert Bekaert
Download or read book International Stock Return Comovements written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine international stock return comovements using country-industry and country-style portfolios. We first establish that parsimonious risk-based factor models capture the covariance structure of the data better than the popular Heston-Rouwenhorst (1994) model. We then establish the following stylized facts regarding stock return comovements. First, we do not find evidence for an upward trend in return correlations, excpet for the European stock markets. Second, the increasing imporatnce of industry factors relative to country factors was a short-lived, temporary phenomenon. Third, we find no evidence for a trend in idiosyncratic risk in any of the countries we examine.
Book Synopsis The Expanding Workweek? by : Peter Kuhn
Download or read book The Expanding Workweek? written by Peter Kuhn and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to Census and CPS data, the share of employed American men regularly working more than 48 hours per week is higher today than it was 25 years ago. Using CPS data from 1979 to 2006, we show that this increase was greatest among highly educated, highly-paid, and older men, was concentrated in the 1980s, and was largely confined to workers paid on a salaried basis. We rule out a number of possible explanations of these changes, including changes in measurement, composition effects, and internet-facilitated work from home. Among salaried men, increases in long work hours were greatest in detailed occupations and industries with larger increases in residual wage inequality and slowly-growing real compensation at 'standard' (40) hours.
Book Synopsis Did Vasco Da Gama Matter for European Markets? by : Kevin H. O'Rourke
Download or read book Did Vasco Da Gama Matter for European Markets? written by Kevin H. O'Rourke and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his seminal publications between the 1930s and 1960s, Frederick Lane offered three hypotheses regarding the impact of the Voyages of Discovery that have guided debate ever since. First, pepper and other spice prices did not rise in European markets in the century before the 1490s, and thus could not have 'pulled in' the oceanic explorations by their rising scarcity. Second, Portuguese circumnavigation of Africa did not lower European spice prices across the 16th century, implying that the discovery of the Cape route had no permanent effect on Euro-Asian market integration. Third, 15th century Venetian spice markets were already well integrated with those in Iberia and northern Europe, implying that Portugal could not have had an intra-European market integrating influence in the 16th century. Lane developed these influential hypotheses by relying heavily on nominal spice prices from Venice and the Levant. This paper revisits Lane's hypotheses by using instead relative spice prices, that is, accounting for inflation. It also draws on evidence from Iberia and northern Europe. In addition, it explores European market integration before and after 1503, the year when da Gama returned from his financially successful second voyage. Lane's three hypotheses are rejected: the impact of the Portuguese was profound on all fronts. We conclude by using a simple model of monopoly and oligopoly to decompose the sources of the Cape route's impact on European markets.
Book Synopsis Neckties in the Tropics by : James E. Rauch
Download or read book Neckties in the Tropics written by James E. Rauch and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some cultural goods, like clothes and films, are consumed socially and are thus characterized by the same consumption network externalities as languages. At the same time, producers of new cultural goods in any one country draw on the stock of ideas generated by previous cultural production in all countries. For such goods, costless trade and communication tend to lead to the dominance of one cultural style, increasing utility in the short run but reducing quality and generating cultural stagnation in the long run. Increasing trade costs while keeping communication costs low may reduce welfare by stimulating production of cultural goods that are "compatible" with the dominant style, thereby capturing consumption network externalities, but that add little to the stock of usable ideas. A reform of cultural policy suggested by our two-country analysis could be to remove import restrictions in the smaller country and replace them with subsidies to the fixed costs of production of new cultural goods in its traditional style.
Book Synopsis The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises written by Michael D. Bordo and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the role of foreign currency debt in precipitating financial crises? In this paper we compare the 1880 to 1913 period to recent experience. We examine debt crises, currency crises, banking crises and the interrelation between these varieties of crises. We pay special attention to the role of hard currency debt, currency mismatches and debt intolerance. We find fairly robust evidence that high exposure to foreign currency debt does not necessarily lead to a high chance of having a debt crisis, currency crisis, or a banking crisis. A key finding is some countries do not suffer from great financial fragility despite high exposure to original sin. In the nineteenth century, the British offshoots and Scandinavia generally avoided severe financial meltdowns while today many advanced countries have high original sin but have had few financial crises. The common denominator in both periods is that currency mismatches matter. A strong reserve position or high exports relative to hard currency liabilities helps decrease the likelihood of a debt crisis, currency crisis or a banking crisis. This strengthens the evidence for the hypothesis that foreign currency debt is dangerous when mis-managed. We discuss the robustness of these results and make some general comparisons based on this evidence from over 60 years of intense international capital market integration.
Book Synopsis Nonlinear Dynamics and Commodity Prices by : Thomas Abbott Noll
Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics and Commodity Prices written by Thomas Abbott Noll and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment by : Robert S. Pindyck
Download or read book Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.
Book Synopsis Readings in the Theory of Growth by : F.H. Hahn
Download or read book Readings in the Theory of Growth written by F.H. Hahn and published by Springer. This book was released on 1971-03-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
