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Author : David R. Martinelli
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 292 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (435 download)
Download or read book Enhanced Pavement Deterioration Modeling Through Maintenance Parameters written by David R. Martinelli and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Louw Kannemeyer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (956 download)
Download or read book The Applicability of Published Pavement Deterioration Models for National Roads written by Louw Kannemeyer and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growing interest in pavement management systems (PMSs), both in South Mrica and internationally, has been in response to a shift in importance from the construction of new roads to the maintenance of the existing paved network coupled with increasingly restrictive road funding. In order to develop a balanced expenditure programme for the national roads of South Africa there is a need to predict the rate of deterioration of a pavement and the nature of the changes in its condition so that the timing, type and cost of maintenance needs could be estimated. Internationally these expected changes in pavement condition are predicted by pavement deterioration models, which normally are algorithms developed mathematically or from a study of pavement deterioration. Since no usable pavement deterioration models existed locally, it was necessary to evaluate overseas literature on pavement deterioration prediction models with the aim of identifying models possibly applicable to the national roads of South Africa. Only deterioration models developed from the deterioration results of inservice pavements under a normal traffic spectrum were evaluated. Models developed from accelerated testing were avoided since these models virtually eliminated long?term effects (these are primarily environmental but also include effects of the rest periods between loads), and that the unrepresentative traffic loading regimes can distort the behaviour of the pavement materials, which is often stress dependent. Models developed from the following studies were evaluated: AASHO Road Test The Kenya study Brazil-UNDP study (HDM-ill models) Texas study Of all the above models studied that were developed from major studies it was concluded that the incremental models developed during the Brazil study, were the most appropriate for further evaluation under South African conditions. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the HDM-III models to evaluate their sensitivity to changes in the different parameters comprising each model. The results obtained from the sensitivity analysis indicate that the incremental roughness prediction model incorporated into the HDM-III model tends to be insensitive to changes in most parameters. Accuracy ranges for input data were, however, also identified for parameters which indicated an increase in sensitivity in certain ranges. The local applicability of the HDM-III deterioration models were finally evaluated by comparing HDM-III model predictions with the actually observed deterioration values of a selected number of national road pavement sections. To enable the above comparison, a validation procedure had to be developed according to which the format of existing data could be transformed to that required by the HDM-ill model, as well as additional information be calculated. From the comparison it was concluded that the HDM-III models are capable of accurately predicting the observed deterioration on South African national roads, but that for most models calibration is needed for local conditions. Guidelines regarding recommended calibration factor ranges for the different HDM-ill models are given. Finally it is recommended that the HDM-III models should be considered for incorporation into a balanced expenditure programme for the national roads of South Africa.
Author : Samer W. Katicha
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (965 download)
Download or read book Development of Enhanced Pavement Deterioration Curves written by Samer W. Katicha and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes the research performed by the Center for Sustainable Transportation Infrastructure (CSTI) at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to develop a pavement condition prediction model, using (negative binomial) regression, that takes into account pavement age and pavement structural condition expressed in terms of the Modified Structural Index (MSI). The MSI was found to be a significant input parameter that affects the rate of deterioration of a pavement section with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) suggesting that the model that includes the MSI is, at least, 50,000 times more likely to be closer to the true model than the model that does not include the MSI. For a typical pavement at 7 years of age (since the last rehabilitation), the effect of reducing the MSI from 1 to 0.6 results in reducing the critical condition index (CCI) from 79 to 70. The developed regression model predicts the average CCI of pavement sections for a given age and MSI value. In practice, the actual CCI of specific pavement sections will vary from the model-predicted condition because many (important) factors that affect deterioration are not considered in the model. Therefore an empirical Bayes (EB) method is proposed to better estimate the CCI of a specific pavement section. The EB method combines the recorded CCI of the specific section with the CCI predicted from the model using a weighted average that depends on the variability of individual pavement sections performance and the variability of CCI measurements. This approach resulted in improving the prediction of the future CCI, calculated using leave one out cross validation, by 21.6 percent.
Author : Luis Esteban Amador Jimenez
Publisher : LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9783659157882
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (578 download)
Download or read book Pavement Deterioration Modeling written by Luis Esteban Amador Jimenez and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2012-06 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deterioration models are employed to forecast pavement performance and to support decisions of funds allocation for maintenance and rehabilitation. However, they traditionally lack a measure of reliability. This book uses multilevel Bayesian regression modeling for mixing prior knowledge with experimental observations in order to develop deterioration modeling with the ability to quantify uncertainty. It explicitly considers materials properties, structural capacity (or strength), external loading and environmental exposure by adapting classical mechanistic models. Two network level case studies illustrate the applicability of the method and deal with some of the practical limitations: (1) a novel method develops performance modeling from two time series data, using the concept of apparent age, (2) another model uses pavement roughness and strength to address practical limitations such as missing data, incorporating expert criteria and handling predictors from different data structures. The methods presented can help local, regional or national authorities to develop initial, practical or more advanced models for pavement deterioration, capable of capturing uncertainty.
Author : Gulfam Jannat
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 183 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (988 download)
Download or read book Developing Cost-effective Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation Schedules written by Gulfam Jannat and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) are the most critical and expensive components of infrastructure asset management. Increasing traffic load, climate change and resource limitations for road maintenance accelerate pavement deterioration and eventually increase the need for future maintenance treatments. Consequently, pavement management programs are increasingly complex. The complexities are attributed to the precise assessment process of the overall pavement condition, realistic distress prediction and identification of cost-effective M&R schedules. Cost-effective road M&R practices are only possible when the evaluation of pavement condition is precise, pavement deterioration models are accurate, and resources must also be available at the right time. In a Pavement Management System (PMS), feasible M&R treatments are identified at the end of each branch of the decision trees. The decision trees are based on empirical relationships of the pavement performance index. Moreover, the predicted improvements in pavement performance for any treatment are set based on engineering experiences. Furthermore, the remaining service life of the pavement is estimated from the predicted deterioration of the overall condition. The future deterioration of the overall condition is estimated based on the initial condition and by considering only the effect of age notwithstanding the effect of traffic or materials. In assessing the overall condition of the pavement, this research overcomes the limitations of engineering judgment by incorporating a Mechanistic-Empirical (M-E) approach and estimating the improvement in performance for specific treatment types. It also considers the effect of traffic and materials on pavement performance to precisely predict its future deterioration and subsequent remaining service life. The objective of this research is to develop cost-effective pavement M&R schedules by incorporating (a) the M-E approach into the overall condition index and (b) the estimate of performance indices by considering the factors affecting pavement performance. The research objective will be accomplished by (i) incorporating variability analysis of existing performance evaluation practices and maintenance decisions of pavement, (ii) investigating estimates of existing performance indices, (iii) incorporating the M-E approach: sensitivity analysis, prediction, comparison and verification, (iv) estimating the deterioration model based on traffic characteristics and material types, and (v) identifying cost-effective M&R treatment options through Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA). This study uses the pavement performance data of Ontario highways recorded in the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) pavement database. Precise assessment of pavement condition is a significant part in achieving the research goal. In a PMS, an accurate location reference system is necessary for managing pavement evaluations and maintenance. The length of the pavement section selected for evaluation may have a significant impact on the assessment irrespective of the type of performance indices. In Ontario, the highway section lengths range from 50m to 50,000m. For this reason, a variability in performance evaluation is investigated due to changes in section length. This study considers rut depth, Pavement Condition Index (PCI), and International Roughness Index (IRI) as performance indices. The distributions of these indices are compared by the following groupings of section lengths: 50m, 500m, 1,000m and 10,000m. The variations of performance assessments due to changing section lengths are investigated based on their impact on maintenance decisions. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out by varying section lengths to estimate probabilities of maintenance work requirements. Results of such empirical investigations reveal that most of the longer sections are evaluated with low rut depth and the shorter sections are evaluated with high rut depth. This Monte Carlo simulation also reveals that 50m sections have a higher probability of maintenance requirements than 500m sections. The method of estimating performance indices is also investigated to identify the requirement of improvement in estimation of the prediction models. Generally, in a PMS, the prediction models of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are estimated by using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach. However, the OLS approach can be inefficient if unobserved factors influencing individual KPIs are correlated with each other. For this reason, regression models for KPI predictions are estimated by using an approach called the 'Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR)' method. The M-E approach is used in this study to predict the future distresses by employing mechanistic-empirical models to analyze the impact of traffic, climate, materials and pavement structure. The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) software uses a three-level hierarchical input to predict performance in terms of IRI, permanent deformation (rut depth), total cracking (reflective and alligator), asphalt concrete (AC) thermal fracture, AC bottom-up fatigue cracking and AC top-down fatigue cracking. However, these inputs have different levels of accuracy, which may have a significant impact on performance prediction. It would be ineffective to put effort for obtaining accuracy at Level 1 for all inputs. For this reason, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on an experimental design to identify the effect of the accuracy level of inputs on the distresses. Following this, a local sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the main effect of input variables. Interaction effects are also analyzed based on a random combination of the inputs. Since the deterioration of pavement is affected by site-specific traffic, local climate and properties of materials, these variables are carefully considered during the development of the pavement deterioration model to assess overall pavement conditions. The prediction model is developed by using a regression approach considering distresses of the M-E approach. In this study, the deterioration model is estimated for three groups of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) to recognize their individual impact along with properties of materials. The time required for maintenance is also estimated for these categories. The investigations reveal that the expected time to maintenance for overlay with Dense Friction Course (DFC) and Superpave mixes is higher than other Hot Laid (HL) asphalt layers. This will help pavement designers and managers to make informed decisions. The probability of failure is also investigated by a probabilistic approach. With the increasing trend towards M&R of existing pavements, it is essential to make cost-effective use of the M&R budget. As such, identification of associated cost-effective M&R treatments is not always simple in most PMS. For this reason, a LCCA is carried out for alternate pavement treatments using the deterioration model based on traffic levels and material types. Comparing the Net Present Worth (NPW) value of alternative treatment options reveals that the overlay of pavement with DFC is the most cost-effective choice in the case of higher AADT. On the other hand, overlay with Hot Laid-1 (HL-1) is a cost-effective treatment option for highway sections with lower AADT. Although the results are related to the Ontario highway system, this can also be applied elsewhere with similar conditions. The outcome of the empirical investigations will result in the adoption of efficient road M&R programs for highways based on realistic performance predictions, which have significant impact on infrastructure asset management.
Author : Michelle Elizabeth Beckley
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (954 download)
Download or read book Pavement Deterioration Modeling Using Historical Roghness Data written by Michelle Elizabeth Beckley and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pavement management systems and performance prediction modeling tools are essential for maintaining an efficient and cost effective roadway network. One indicator of pavement performance is the International Roughness Index (IRI), which is a measure of ride quality and also impacts road safety. Many transportation agencies use IRI to allocate annual maintenance and rehabilitation strategies to their road network. The objective of the work in this study was to develop a methodology to evaluate and predict pavement roughness over the pavement service life. Unlike previous studies, a unique aspect of this work was the use of non-linear mathematical function, sigmoidal growth function, to model the IRI data and provide agencies with the information needed for decision making in asset management and funding allocation. The analysis included data from two major databases (case studies): Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) and the Minnesota Department of Transportation MnROAD research program. Each case study analyzed periodic IRI measurements, which were used to develop the sigmoidal models.The analysis aimed to demonstrate several concepts; that the LTPP and MnROAD roughness data could be represented using the sigmoidal growth function, that periodic IRI measurements collected for road sections with similar characteristics could be processed to develop an IRI curve representing the pavement deterioration for this group, and that pavement deterioration using historical IRI data can provide insight on traffic loading, material, and climate effects. The results of the two case studies concluded that in general, pavement sections without drainage systems, narrower lanes, higher traffic, or measured in the outermost lane were observed to have more rapid deterioration trends than their counterparts. Overall, this study demonstrated that the sigmoidal growth function is a viable option for roughness deterioration modeling. This research not only to demonstrated how historical roughness can be modeled, but also how the same framework could be applied to other measures of pavement performance which deteriorate in a similar manner, including distress severity, present serviceability rating, and friction loss. These sigmoidal models are regarded to provide better understanding of particular pavement network deterioration, which in turn can provide value in asset management and resource allocation planning.
Author : Charles Yu-Hsu Lee
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 618 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (84 download)
Download or read book A Probabilistic Approach to the Life-cycle Cost Assessment of Preventive Maintenance Strategies on Flexible Pavements written by Charles Yu-Hsu Lee and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 618 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ryan M. Laub
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (816 download)
Download or read book Pavement Deterioration Modeling written by Ryan M. Laub and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jorge Alberto Prozzi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (34 download)
Download or read book Modeling Pavement Performance by Combining Field and Experimental Data /cby Jorge Alberto Prozzi written by Jorge Alberto Prozzi and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nejat Kafabakal
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.L/5 ( download)
Download or read book Scheduling Pavement Maintenance With Deterministic Deterioration And Budget Constraints written by Nejat Kafabakal and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Amr Ayed
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (973 download)
Download or read book Development of Empirical and Mechanistic Empirical Performance Models at Project and Network Levels written by Amr Ayed and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Performance prediction models are a vital component in pavement management systems (PMS). Along with decision trees, prediction models are used to set priorities for maintenance and rehabilitation planning, and ultimately for budget allocations at the network level. Reliable and accurate prediction of pavement deterioration over time helps transportation agencies accurately predict future spending and save significant amounts of money. Within a PMS, raw performance data is often converted into aggregated performance indices, such as the Riding Comfort Index (RCI), to quantify the road's roughness, or the Distress Surface Index (SDI), to quantify accumulated pavement distress. Technology has evolved rapidly in the last two decades, making data collection for pavement conditions (i.e. roughness and distress data) more feasible for transportation agencies. However, transportation agencies, especially at the municipal level, only maintain condition data to evaluate the present pavement status. Only limited attempts have so far been made to develop or enhance existing deterioration models in pavement management systems, using periodically collected condition data over time. A well-maintained historical database of pavement condition measurements and performance indices can be a useful source for the development of performance prediction models. In some cases, however, the database may contain incomplete data and insufficient information to develop reliable performance models. In addition to inconsistency in the historical performance data, the age of the pavement or the date of the last maintenance/ rehabilitation treatment may not be available to develop the pavement performance over time. The goal of this research is to develop enhanced empirical performance models capable of capturing the unpredictable and indeterminate nature of pavement deterioration behavior. This research provides a methodology to develop empirical models in the absence of the construction and/or rehabilitation dates. The models developed in this research use limited available historical data, and examine different parameters, such as pavement thickness, traffic pattern, and subgrade condition. Parameters such as the date of pavement construction and the age of the pavement are also incorporated into the proposed models, and are constrained by local experience and engineering judgment. A linear programming optimization technique is employed to develop the empirical models presented in this research. The approach demonstrated in this research can also be expanded to account for additional parameters, and can easily be adapted to match the needs of different agencies based on their local experience. In addition, the current research develops a second set of deterioration models based on mechanistic-empirical principles. Models incorporated into the mechanistic-empirical design guide are locally calibrated. A genetic algorithm optimization technique is employed to guide the calibration process, in order to determine the coefficients that best represent pavement performance over time. The two sets of performance models developed in this research are compared at both the project and network level of analysis. A decision-making framework is implemented to incorporate the two sets of models, and a comprehensive life cycle cost analysis is carried out to compare design alternatives in the project level analysis. The two model sets are also evaluated at the network level analysis using a municipal pavement management system. Two budget scenarios are executed, based on the developed performance models, and a comparison between network performance and budget spending is presented. Finally, a summary and current research contribution to the pavement industry will be presented, along with recommendations for future research.
Author : Qiao Dong
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (743 download)
Download or read book Enhancement of Pavement Maintenance Decision Making by Evaluating the Effectiveness of Pavement Maintenance Treatments written by Qiao Dong and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The performance of different pavement maintenance treatments were evaluated by investigating practical projects collected from Tennessee Pavement Management System (PMS) and Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database. The influence of factors on the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cracking initiation of different treatment were evaluated by "Optime", multiple linear regression and parametric survival analysis. Pavement roughness, pavement serviceability index (PSI) and the initiation time of cracking were used as pavement performance indicators. Investigation on the pavement maintenance projects in Tennessee by Optime and multiple linear regression analysis indicated that HMA overlay had the highest effectiveness, followed by mill & fill and micro surfacing. Due to the relatively low cost, micro surfacing was the most cost-effective treatment, followed by HMA overlay and mill & fill. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness decreased with the increase of traffic level and pre-treatment pavement condition. Investigation on the LTPP resurfacing treatments indicated that thick overlay and milling reduced the roughness after rehabilitation. Thin overlay, high traffic level and poor pre-rehabilitation pavement condition increased the deterioration rate of new overlay. Using reclaimed asphalt material did not influence the treatment performance but was cost-effective in reducing the roughness of new overlay. For a certain deterioration rate, there was an optimized pre-rehabilitation roughness value or time for applying maintenance treatment. Survival analysis on the crack initiation of asphalt overlay indicated that high traffic level accelerated the initiation of cracking. Thick overlay delayed the initiation of cracking except for the non-wheel path longitudinal crack. Mill retarded the occurrence of the nonfatigue cracks, whereas severe freeze thaw condition accelerated the occurrence of the two types of cracking. Using 30% RAP accelerated the initiation of longitudinal fatigue crack on wheel path but did not cause serious fatigue problem. The performance curves of HMA resurfacing treatments used in Tennessee were calibrated by investigating the influence of different factors on the slopes and intercepts of post-treatment performance curves. The analysis indicated that pavement with high pre-treatment PSI, thick overlay and deep milling had low deterioration rate, whereas pavement with higher traffic level deteriorated faster.
Author : Arash Mohammad Hosseini
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (128 download)
Download or read book DATA-DRIVEN MODELING OF IN-SERVICE PERFORMANCE OF FLEXIBLE PAVEMENTS, USING LIFE-CYCLE INFORMATION written by Arash Mohammad Hosseini and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current pavement performance prediction models are based on the parameters such as climate, traffic, environment, material properties, etc. while all these factors are playing important roles in the performance of pavements, the quality of construction and production are also as important as the other factors. The designed properties of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) pavements, known as flexible pavements, are subjected to change during production and construction stages. Therefore, most of the times the final product is not the exact reflection of the design. In almost any highway project, these changes are common and likely to occur from different sources, by various causes, and at any stage. These changes often have considerable impacts on the long-term performance of a project. The uncertainty of the traffic and environmental factors, as well as the variability of material properties and pavement structural systems, are obstacles for precise prediction of pavement performance. Therefore, it is essential to adopt a hybrid approach in pavement performance prediction and design; in which deterministic values work along with stochastic ones. Despite the advancement of technology, it is natural to observe variability during the production and construction stages of flexible pavements. Quality control programs are trying to minimize and control these variations and keep them at the desired levels. Utilizing the information gathered at the production and construction stages is beneficial for managers and researchers. This information enables performing analysis and investigations of pavements based on the as-produced and as-constructed values, rather than focusing on design values. This study describes a geo-relational framework to connect the pavement life-cycle information. This framework allows more intelligent and data-driven decisions for the pavements. The constructed geo-relational database can pave the way for artificial intelligence tools to help both researchers and practitioners having more accurate pavement design, quality control programs, and maintenance activities. This study utilizes data collected as part of quality control programs to develop more accurate deterioration and performance models. This data is not only providing the true perspective of actual measurements from different pavement properties but also answers how they are distributed over the length of the pavement. This study develops and utilizes different distribution functions of pavement properties and incorporate them into the general performance prediction models. These prediction models consist of different elements that are working together to produce an accurate and detailed prediction of performance. The model predicts occurrence and intensity of four common flexible pavement distresses; such as rutting, alligator, longitudinal and transverse cracking along with the total deterioration rate at different ages and locations of pavement based on material properties, traffic, and climate of a given highway. The uniqueness of the suggested models compared to the conventional pavement models in the literature is that; it carries out a multiscale and multiphysics approach which is believed to be essential for analyzing a complex system such as flexible pavements. This approach encompasses the discretization of the system into subsystems to employ the proper computational tools required to treat them. This approach is suitable for problems with a wide range of spatial and temporal scales as well as a wide variety of different coupled physical phenomena such as pavements. Moreover, the suggested framework in this study relies on using stochastic and machine learning techniques in the analysis along with the conventional deterministic methods. In addition, this study utilizes mechanical testing to provide better insights into the behavior of the pavement. A series of performance tests are conducted on field core samples with a variety of different material properties at different ages. These tests allow connecting the lab test results with the field performance survey and the material, environmental and loading properties. Moreover, the mix volumetrics extracted from the cores assisted verifying the distribution function models. Finally, the deterioration of flexible pavements as a result of four different distresses is individually investigated and based on the findings; different models are suggested. Dividing the roadway into small sections allowed predicting finer resolution of performance. These models are proposed to assist the highway agencies s in their pavement management process and quality control programs. The resulting models showed a strong ability to predict field performance at any age during the pavements service life. The results of this study highlighted the benefits of highway agencies in adopting a geo-relational framework for their pavement network. This study provides information and guidance to evolve towards data-driven pavement life cycle management consisted of quality pre-construction, quality during construction, and deterioration post-construction.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 454 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (925 download)
Download or read book Road Deterioration and Maintenance Effects written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Daeseok Han
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 13 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (125 download)
Download or read book Stochastic Forecasting of Life Expectancies Considering Multi-Maintenance Criteria and Localized Uncertainties in the Pavement-Deterioration Process written by Daeseok Han and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the deterioration characteristics of highway pavements is an essential factor for developing better maintenance strategies, as well as estimating mid- to long-term budget demands. In general, estimation results regarding life expectancy have often been represented with a constant in deterministic manners. However, in reality, these results do not correspond with real life spans because of the severe uncertainties in the pavement-deterioration process and various maintenance criteria. For these reasons, in this paper, the real life expectancy was assessed in a stochastic manner with the Bayesian Markov hazard model, which is suitable for estimating localized uncertainties in the progress of deterioration based on various deterioration indices. On the basis of this model, we have developed a new methodology that can determine the joint distribution of total maintenance demands by aggregating multiple deterioration processes using the concept of "safety-hazard zones." In addition, we developed a method for disaggregating the joint distribution by maintenance types to mitigate the conventional problems associated with the probabilistic budget estimation approach. For our empirical study, we used data from the Korean national highways from 2007 to 2011 concerning pavement conditions, including crack, rut depth, and international roughness index (IRI). The results of this study are meaningful in that they establish the ideal conditions required for the Bayesian Markov hazard model to forecast the deterioration of pavement, allowing the incorporation of a practical viewpoint into an academic approach under the concept of asset management.
Download or read book Deterioration Models for Inservice Flexible Pavements in India written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the growing interest in the development of maintenance management models for optimum utilisation of available resources in developing countries, to decide the most economical strategies based on flow of funds, one of the most essential inputs is development of deterioration models for structural and functional conditions of flexible pavements. This paper describes the development of deterioration models for the prediction of deflection growth, rut depth progression, crack area progression, unevenness(roughness) growth and the variation in riding comfort with increase in unevenness of the pavement surface. The deflection histories of overlaid flexible pavements have been analysed to find the appropriate stabilised deflection value which has been used as a strength parameter in the deterioration modelling. The present investigation has been presented in few key elements viz., need for flexible pavement deterioration models, performance studies on flexible pavements, strength parameter for overlaid flexible pavements, structural condition deterioration models and functional condition deterioration models. For the covering abstract of this conference see IRRD number 872978.
Author :
Publisher : DIANE Publishing Inc.
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Asset Management Primer written by and published by DIANE Publishing Inc.. This book was released on 1999 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
