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Empirical Tests Of Parametric And Non Parametric Value At Risk Var And Conditional Value At Risk Cvar Measures For The Brazilian Stock Market Index
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Book Synopsis Empirical Tests of Parametric and Non-parametric Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) Measures for the Brazilian Stock Market Index by : Luciano Martin Rostagno
Download or read book Empirical Tests of Parametric and Non-parametric Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) Measures for the Brazilian Stock Market Index written by Luciano Martin Rostagno and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study aims to verify empirically the accuracy of parametric and non-parametric approaches in estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) measures of the Brazilian stock market index (Ibovespa). The period of analysis goes from the first day of trade of 1995 to the last day of trade of 2004, which is used for estimation and test of the risk parameters. Parametric approaches assume that daily returns follow a normal and a t-distribution. Non-parametric approaches are the historical simulation and the volatility-weighted historical simulation technique. The binomial test is applied to verify if the failure rates predicted by VaR measures given by the models are acceptable and the sample differences paired test is used to evaluate the accuracy of the CVaR measures in forecasting tail losses. The results point out that the volatility-weighted historical simulation approach gives better estimates of both measures of risk. The rates of losses exceeding volatility-weighted historical simulation VaRs (VWHS-VaRs) ranged between 4.7-6.0%, at the 95% cl, and between 0.9-1.2%, at the 99% cl. For all periods of estimation used (1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years), at the 95% cl, the sample differences paired test indicated no statistically significant differences between the VWHS-CVaR estimates and the losses beyond its VaR estimates. Risk lines for the normal and historical simulation VaR (HS-VaR) estimates presented flatness, or excessive smoothness, for large periods of estimation, and the student t VaR (T-VaR) estimates were sometimes too low or too high. For these models, short periods of estimation gave more accurate VaR estimates. For the CVaR estimates, the normal and t-distribution assumptions caused overestimation of the value of the tail losses. Finally, the HS-CVaR had similar performance of HS-VaR providing, at the 95% cl, good estimates of tail losses when short periods of estimation were used.
Book Synopsis Commencement by : Iowa State University
Download or read book Commencement written by Iowa State University and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Extreme value theory: a conditional approach for value at risk estimation in the brazilian stock market by :
Download or read book Extreme value theory: a conditional approach for value at risk estimation in the brazilian stock market written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Um dos fatos estilizados mais pronunciados acerca das distribuições de retornos financeiros diz respeito à presença de caudas pesadas. Isso torna os modelos paramétricos tradicionais de cálculo de Valor em Risco (VaR) inadequados para a estimação de VaR de baixas probabilidades (1% ou menos), dado que estes se baseiam na hipótese de normalidade para as distribuições dos retornos. Tais modelos não são capazes de inferir sobre as reais possibilidades de ocorrência de retornos atípicos. Sendo assim, o objetivo do presente trabalho é investigar o desempenho de modelos baseados na Teoria dos Valores Extremos para o cálculo de VaR, comparando-os com modelostradicionais. Um modelo incondicional, proposto a caracterizar o comportamento de longo prazo da série, e um modelo condicional, sugerido por McNeil e Frey(1999), proposto a caracterizar a dependência presente na variância condicional dos retornos foram utilizados e testados em quatro séries de retornos de ações representativas do mercado brasileiro: retornos de Ibovespa, retornos deIbovespa Futuro, retornos das ações da Telesp e retornos das ações da Petrobrás. Os resultados indicam que os modelos baseados na Teoria dos Valores Extremos são mais adequados para a modelagem das caudas, e conseqüentemente para a estimação de Valor em Risco quando os níveisde probabilidade de interesse são baixos. Além disso, o modelo condicional é mais adequado em épocas de crise, pois, ao contrário do modelo incondicional, tem a capacidade de responder rapidamente a mudanças na volatilidade. Medidas alternativas de risco, como a perda média e a perda mediana também foram propostas, a fim de fornecer estimativas para as perdas no caso do VaR ser violado.
Download or read book Master's Theses Directories written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Education, arts and social sciences, natural and technical sciences in the United States and Canada".
Book Synopsis Value at Risk Based on Fuzzy Numbers by : Maria Letizia Guerra
Download or read book Value at Risk Based on Fuzzy Numbers written by Maria Letizia Guerra and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Value at Risk (VaR) has become a crucial measure for decision making in risk management over the last thirty years and many estimation methodologies address the finding of the best performing measure at taking into account unremovable uncertainty of real financial markets. One possible and promising way to include uncertainty is to refer to the mathematics of fuzzy numbers and to its rigorous methodologies which offer flexible ways to read and to interpret properties of real data which may arise in many areas. The paper aims to show the effectiveness of two distinguished models to account for uncertainty in VaR computation; initially, following a non parametric approach, we apply the Fuzzy-transform approximation function to smooth data by capturing fundamental patterns before computing VaR.
Book Synopsis Brazilian stock return series: volatility and value at risk by :
Download or read book Brazilian stock return series: volatility and value at risk written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: O objetivo principal do trabalho é o estudo dos resultados obtidos com a aplicação de diferentes modelos para estimar a volatilidade das ações brasileiras. Foram analisadas as séries de retornos diários de seis ações, num período de 1200 dias de pregão. Inicialmente, as séries foram estudadas quanto a suas propriedades estatísticas: estacionariedade, distribuição incondicional e independência. Concluiu-se que as séries são estacionárias na média, mas não houve conclusão quanto à variância, nesta análise inicial. A distribuição dos retornos não é normal, por apresentar leptocurtose. Os retornos mostraram dependência no tempo, linear e, principalmente, não linear. Modelada a dependência linear, foram aplicados dez modelos diferentes para tentar capturar a dependência não linear através da modelagem da volatilidade: os modelos foram avaliados, dentro e fora da amostra, pelos seus resíduos e pelos erros de previsão. Os resultados indicaram que os modelos menos elaborados tendem a representar pior oprocesso gerador dos dados, mas que os modelos pouco parcimoniosos são de difícil estimação e seus resultados não correspondem ao que seria esperado em função de suasofisticação. As volatilidades estimadas pelos dez modelos foram utilizadas para prever valor em risco (VaR), usando-se dois processos para determinar os quantis das distribuições dos resíduos: distribuição empírica e teoria de valores extremos. Os resultados indicaram que os modelos menos elaborados prevêem melhor o VaR. Isto se deve à nãoestacionariedade das séries na variância, que fica evidente ao longo do trabalho.
Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson
Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Book Synopsis A Non-parametric Method for Calculating Conditional Stressed Value at Risk by :
Download or read book A Non-parametric Method for Calculating Conditional Stressed Value at Risk written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Value at Risk, 3rd Ed. by : Philippe Jorion
Download or read book Value at Risk, 3rd Ed. written by Philippe Jorion and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2006-11-09 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Value at Risk has become the industry standard in risk management. Now in its Third Edition, this international bestseller addresses the fundamental changes in the field that have occurred across the globe in recent years. Philippe Jorion provides the most current information needed to understand and implement VAR-as well as manage newer dimensions of financial risk. Featured updates include: An increased emphasis on operational risk Using VAR for integrated risk management and to measure economic capital Applications of VAR to risk budgeting in investment management Discussion of new risk-management techniques, including extreme value theory, principal components, and copulas Extensive coverage of the recently finalized Basel II capital adequacy rules for commercial banks, integrated throughout the book A major new feature of the Third Edition is the addition of short questions and exercises at the end of each chapter, making it even easier to check progress. Detailed answers are posted on the companion web site www.pjorion.com/var/. The web site contains other materials, including additional questions that course instructors can assign to their students. Jorion leaves no stone unturned, addressing the building blocks of VAR from computing and backtesting models to forecasting risk and correlations. He outlines the use of VAR to measure and control risk for trading, for investment management, and for enterprise-wide risk management. He also points out key pitfalls to watch out for in risk-management systems. The value-at-risk approach continues to improve worldwide standards for managing numerous types of risk. Now more than ever, professionals can depend on Value at Risk for comprehensive, authoritative counsel on VAR, its application, and its results-and to keep ahead of the curve.
Book Synopsis Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis by : Halbert White
Download or read book Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis written by Halbert White and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1996-06-28 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the consequences of misspecifications for the interpretation of likelihood-based methods of statistical estimation and interference. The analysis concludes with an examination of methods by which the possibility of misspecification can be empirically investigated.
Book Synopsis Goodness-of-Fit Tests Focus on Value-at-Risk Estimation by : José Fajardo
Download or read book Goodness-of-Fit Tests Focus on Value-at-Risk Estimation written by José Fajardo and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A common statistical problem in finance is measuring the goodness-of-fit of a given distribution to real world data. This can be done using distances to measure how close an empirical distribution is from a theoretical distribution. The tails of the distribution should receive special importance if the focus is on Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculations. This paper analyzes the use of distances to test the goodness-of-fit of estimated distributions for VaR calculation purposes. The Crnkovic and Drachman (1996) distance and a new distance are used to perform goodness-of-fit tests. The critical values of the tests are obtained using Monte Carlo simulation, and goodness-of-fit tests are performed based on the distances. The power of the tests is assessed through Monte Carlo experiments, showing good results for sample sizes greater than 250. The US Dollar/Brazilian Real exchange rate and the Ibovespa index are used as examples of practical applications of how to test the hypothesis that an empirical distribution is equal to an estimated one. The estimated distributions considered are the Generalized Hyperbolic (GH), the NIG (Normal Inverse Gaussian) and Normal. The test results rejected the null hypothesis for the Normal distribution, but did not reject it for the Generalized Hyperbolic and NIG, both at a 1% significance level.
Book Synopsis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis by : Anthony Saunders
Download or read book Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis written by Anthony Saunders and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis. Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurring Understanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.
Book Synopsis Risk Topography by : Markus Brunnermeier
Download or read book Risk Topography written by Markus Brunnermeier and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-10-17 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.
Book Synopsis Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics by : Michael McAleer
Download or read book Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics written by Michael McAleer and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-07-23 with total page 536 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk measures play a vital role in many subfields of economics and finance. It has been proposed that risk measures could be analysed in relation to the performance of variables extracted from empirical real-world data. For example, risk measures may help inform effective monetary and fiscal policies and, therefore, the further development of pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.A Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” will be devoted to advancements in the mathematical and statistical development of risk measures with applications in finance and economics. This Special Issue will bring together the theory, practice and real-world applications of risk measures. This book is a collection of papers published in the Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” for Sustainability in 2018.
Book Synopsis VaR and CVaR Implied in Option Prices by :
Download or read book VaR and CVaR Implied in Option Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: VaR (Value at Risk) and CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) are implied by option prices. Their relationships to option prices are derived initially under the pricing measure. It does not require assumptions about the distribution of portfolio returns. The effects of measure change are later discussed. Some extensions and applications are also illustrated.
Book Synopsis Measuring Market Risk by : Kevin Dowd
Download or read book Measuring Market Risk written by Kevin Dowd and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-28 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most up-to-date resource on market risk methodologies Financial professionals in both the front and back office require an understanding of market risk and how to manage it. Measuring Market Risk provides this understanding with an overview of the most recent innovations in Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Tail Loss (ETL) estimation. This book is filled with clear and accessible explanations of complex issues that arise in risk measuring-from parametric versus nonparametric estimation to incre-mental and component risks. Measuring Market Risk also includes accompanying software written in Matlab—allowing the reader to simulate and run the examples in the book.
