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Empirical Model Discovery And Theory Evaluation
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Book Synopsis Empirical Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation by : David F. Hendry
Download or read book Empirical Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-07-03 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A synthesis of the authors' groundbreaking econometric research on automatic model selection, which uses powerful computational algorithms and theory evaluation. Economic models of empirical phenomena are developed for a variety of reasons, the most obvious of which is the numerical characterization of available evidence, in a suitably parsimonious form. Another is to test a theory, or evaluate it against the evidence; still another is to forecast future outcomes. Building such models involves a multitude of decisions, and the large number of features that need to be taken into account can overwhelm the researcher. Automatic model selection, which draws on recent advances in computation and search algorithms, can create, and then empirically investigate, a vastly wider range of possibilities than even the greatest expert. In this book, leading econometricians David Hendry and Jurgen Doornik report on their several decades of innovative research on automatic model selection. After introducing the principles of empirical model discovery and the role of model selection, Hendry and Doornik outline the stages of developing a viable model of a complicated evolving process. They discuss the discovery stages in detail, considering both the theory of model selection and the performance of several algorithms. They describe extensions to tackling outliers and multiple breaks, leading to the general case of more candidate variables than observations. Finally, they briefly consider selecting models specifically for forecasting.
Book Synopsis Empirical Modeling in Economics by : Clive W. J. Granger
Download or read book Empirical Modeling in Economics written by Clive W. J. Granger and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1999-09-30 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lucid account of the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model.
Book Synopsis Empirical Modeling in Economics by : Clive William John Granger
Download or read book Empirical Modeling in Economics written by Clive William John Granger and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Clive W.J. Granger is widely regarded as one of the greatest living social scientists. In this book, designed for scholars, researchers and senior undergraduates, he considers the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model. Using case-studies from the arts and social sciences he provides a concise and entertaining account.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Econometrics by : David F. Hendry
Download or read book Dynamic Econometrics written by David F. Hendry and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 918 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main problem in econometric modelling of time series is discovering sustainable and interpretable relationships between observed economic variables. The primary aim of this book is to develop an operational econometric approach which allows constructive modelling. Professor Hendry deals with methodological issues (model discovery, data mining, and progressive research strategies); with major tools for modelling (recursive methods, encompassing, super exogeneity, invariance tests); and with practical problems (collinearity, heteroscedasticity, and measurement errors). He also includes an extensive study of US money demand. The book is self-contained, with the technical background covered in appendices. It is thus suitable for first year graduate students, and includes solved examples and exercises to facilitate its use in teaching. About the Series Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.
Book Synopsis The Palgrave Companion to Oxford Economics by : Robert A. Cord
Download or read book The Palgrave Companion to Oxford Economics written by Robert A. Cord and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-06-16 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The University of Oxford has been and continues to be one of the most important global centres for economics. With six chapters on themes in Oxford economics and 24 chapters on the lives and work of Oxford economists, this volume shows how economics became established at the University, how it produced some of the world’s best-known economists, including Francis Ysidro Edgeworth, Roy Harrod and David Hendry, and how it remains a global force for the very best in teaching and research in economics. With original contributions from a stellar cast, this volume provides economists – especially those interested in macroeconomics and the history of economic thought – with the first in-depth analysis of Oxford economics.
Book Synopsis Empirical Modeling in Economics by : C. W. J. Granger
Download or read book Empirical Modeling in Economics written by C. W. J. Granger and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dynamic Econometrics For Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling by : Ragnar Nymoen
Download or read book Dynamic Econometrics For Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling written by Ragnar Nymoen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 586 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For Masters and PhD students in EconomicsIn this textbook, the duality between the equilibrium concept used in dynamic economic theory and the stationarity of economic variables is explained and used in the presentation of single equations models and system of equations such as VARs, recursive models and simultaneous equations models.The book also contains chapters on: exogeneity, in the context of estimation, policy analysis and forecasting; automatic (computer based) variable selection, and how it can aid in the specification of an empirical macroeconomic model; and finally, on a common framework for model-based economic forecasting.Supplementary materials and notes are available on the publisher's website.
Book Synopsis The Explanatory Power of Models by : Robert Franck
Download or read book The Explanatory Power of Models written by Robert Franck and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book progressively works out a method of constructing models which can bridge the gap between empirical and theoretical research in the social sciences. It aims to improve the explanatory power of models. The issue is quite novel, and has benefited from a thorough examination of statistical and mathematical models, conceptual models, diagrams and maps, machines, computer simulations, and artificial neural networks.
Book Synopsis Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis by : Marc S. Paolella
Download or read book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis written by Marc S. Paolella and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-12-17 with total page 896 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and timely edition on an emerging new trend in time series Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH sets a strong foundation, in terms of distribution theory, for the linear model (regression and ANOVA), univariate time series analysis (ARMAX and GARCH), and some multivariate models associated primarily with modeling financial asset returns (copula-based structures and the discrete mixed normal and Laplace). It builds on the author's previous book, Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach, which introduced the major concepts of statistical inference. Attention is explicitly paid to application and numeric computation, with examples of Matlab code throughout. The code offers a framework for discussion and illustration of numerics, and shows the mapping from theory to computation. The topic of time series analysis is on firm footing, with numerous textbooks and research journals dedicated to it. With respect to the subject/technology, many chapters in Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis cover firmly entrenched topics (regression and ARMA). Several others are dedicated to very modern methods, as used in empirical finance, asset pricing, risk management, and portfolio optimization, in order to address the severe change in performance of many pension funds, and changes in how fund managers work. Covers traditional time series analysis with new guidelines Provides access to cutting edge topics that are at the forefront of financial econometrics and industry Includes latest developments and topics such as financial returns data, notably also in a multivariate context Written by a leading expert in time series analysis Extensively classroom tested Includes a tutorial on SAS Supplemented with a companion website containing numerous Matlab programs Solutions to most exercises are provided in the book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH is suitable for advanced masters students in statistics and quantitative finance, as well as doctoral students in economics and finance. It is also useful for quantitative financial practitioners in large financial institutions and smaller finance outlets.
Book Synopsis A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia by : Fakhri J. Hasanov
Download or read book A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia written by Fakhri J. Hasanov and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-01-01 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Open Access Brief presents the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). KGEMM is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The model has eight blocks (real sector, fiscal, monetary, external sector, price, labor and wages, energy, population, and age cohorts) that interact with each other to represent the Kingdom’s macroeconomy and energy linkages. It captures New Keynesian demand-side features anchored to medium-run equilibrium and long-run aggregate supply. It applies a cointegration and equilibrium correction modeling (ECM) methodology to time series data to estimate the model’s behavioral equations in the framework of Autometrics, a general-to-specific econometric modeling strategy. Hence, the model combines ‘theory-driven’ approach with ‘data-driven’ approach. The Brief begins with an introduction to the theoretical framework of the model and the KGEMM methodology and then walks the reader through the structure of the model and its behavioral equations. The book closes with simulations showing the application of the model. Providing a detailed introduction to a cutting-edge, robust predictive model, this Brief will be of great use to researchers and policymakers interested in macroeconomics, energy economics, econometrics, and more specifically, the economy of Saudi Arabia.
Book Synopsis The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States by : John B. Guerard
Download or read book The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States written by John B. Guerard and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-06 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy and what to expect in the near and distant future. Beginning with a historic look at major contributions to economic indicators and business cycles starting with Wesley Clair Mitchell (1913) to Burns and Mitchell (1946), to Moore (1961) and Zarnowitz (1992), this book explores time series forecasting and economic cycles, which are currently maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given their highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, these relationships are particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles.
Download or read book Milton Friedman written by Robert Cord and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 887 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes bibliographical references and index.
Download or read book Milton Friedman written by Robert A. Cord and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016-05-20 with total page 832 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Milton Friedman is widely regarded as one of the most influential economists of the twentieth century. Although he made many important contributions to both economic theory and policy - most clearly demonstrated by his development of and support for monetarism - he was also active in various spheres of public policy, where he more often than not pursued his championing of the free market and liberty. This volume assesses the importance of the full range of Friedman's ideas, from his work on methodology in economics, his highly innovative consumption theory, and his extensive research on monetary economics, to his views on contentious social and political issues such as education, conscription, and drugs. It also presents personal recollections of Friedman by some of those who knew him, both as students and colleagues, and offers new evidence on Friedman's interactions with other noted economists, including George Stigler and Lionel Robbins. The volume provides readers with an up to date account of Friedman's work and continuing influence and will help to inform and stimulate further research across a variety of areas, including macroeconomics, the history of economic thought, as well as the development and different uses of public policy. With contributions from a stellar cast, this book will be invaluable to academics and students alike.
Download or read book Rescuing Econometrics written by Duo Qin and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-12-01 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Haavelmo’s 1944 monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics, is widely acclaimed as the manifesto of econometrics. This book challenges Haavelmo’s probability approach, shows how its use is delivering defective and inefficient results, and argues for a paradigm shift in econometrics towards a full embrace of machine learning, with its attendant benefits. Machine learning has only come into existence over recent decades, whereas the universally accepted and current form of econometrics has developed over the past century. A comparison between the two is, however, striking. The practical achievements of machine learning significantly outshine those of econometrics, confirming the presence of widespread inefficiencies in current econometric research. The relative efficiency of machine learning is based on its theoretical foundation, and particularly on the notion of Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning. Careful examination reveals that PAC learning theory delivers the goals of applied economic modelling research far better than Haavelmo’s probability approach. Econometrics should therefore renounce its outdated foundation, and rebuild itself upon PAC learning theory so as to unleash its pent-up research potential. The book is catered for applied economists, econometricians, economists specialising in the history and methodology of economics, advanced students, philosophers of social sciences.
Book Synopsis Twentieth-Century Philosophy of Science: A History (Third Edition) by : Thomas J. Hickey
Download or read book Twentieth-Century Philosophy of Science: A History (Third Edition) written by Thomas J. Hickey and published by Thomas J. Hickey. This book was released on 2016-12-21 with total page 778 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: History of twentieth-century philosophy of science opens with an introduction to contemporary philosophy of science as of the beginning of the twenty-first century, and describes the new specialty of computational philosophy of science. Seven chapters describing the philosophies of several major philosophers of science follow this introductory chapter. These major philosophers include Ernst Mach and Pierre Duhem, Rudolf Carnap and Willard Van Quine, Werner Heisenberg, Karl Popper, Thomas Kuhn and Paul Feyerabend, Norwood Russell Hanson, and Paul Thagard and Herbert Simon. The book concludes with a large bibliography.
Book Synopsis Modelling our Changing World by : Jennifer L. Castle
Download or read book Modelling our Changing World written by Jennifer L. Castle and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-08-30 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles in the Run of History by : Thierry Aimar
Download or read book Business Cycles in the Run of History written by Thierry Aimar and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-26 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes the development of economic cycles in the run of history. The focus is on the development of cycle theory, with maximum emphasis upon ideas. Chapter 1 delivers an overview of the debate about cycles before the 1970s. Chapter 2 completes this survey by presenting the main empirical investigations since that time. Finally, Chapters 3 and 4 illustrate the discourse, by presenting, in the tradition of Burns and Mitchell, original case studies on France, South Africa, and Germany.
