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Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment
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Book Synopsis Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment by : Mary A. Meyer
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Book Synopsis Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment by : Jane M. Booker
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Jane M. Booker and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement by : Mary A. Meyer
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement written by Mary A. Meyer and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Expert Judgment in Project Management by : Paul Szwed
Download or read book Expert Judgment in Project Management written by Paul Szwed and published by Project Management Institute. This book was released on 2016-04-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.
Book Synopsis Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by : Anca M. Hanea
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Book Synopsis Fuzzy Logic and Probability Applications by : Timothy J. Ross
Download or read book Fuzzy Logic and Probability Applications written by Timothy J. Ross and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Shows both the shortcomings and benefits of each technique, and even demonstrates useful combinations of the two.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks by : Herbert K. H. Lee
Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks written by Herbert K. H. Lee and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks is the first book to focus on neural networks in the context of nonparametric regression and classification, working within the Bayesian paradigm. Its goal is to demystify neural networks, putting them firmly in a statistical context rather than treating them as a black box. This approach is in contrast to existing books, which tend to treat neural networks as a machine learning algorithm instead of a statistical model. Once this underlying statistical model is recognized, other standard statistical techniques can be applied to improve the model. The Bayesian approach allows better accounting for uncertainty. This book covers uncertainty in model choice and methods to deal with this issue, exploring a number of ideas from statistics and machine learning. A detailed discussion on the choice of prior and new noninformative priors is included, along with a substantial literature review. Written for statisticians using statistical terminology, Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks will lead statisticians to an increased understanding of the neural network model and its applicability to real-world problems.
Book Synopsis Multivariate Statistical Process Control with Industrial Applications by : Robert L. Mason
Download or read book Multivariate Statistical Process Control with Industrial Applications written by Robert L. Mason and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Detailed coverage of the practical aspects of multivariate statistical process control (MVSPC) based on the application of Hotelling's T2 statistic. MVSPC is the application of multivariate statistical techniques to improve the quality and productivity of an industrial process. Provides valuable insight into the T2 statistic.
Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Book Synopsis Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology by : Ajith H. Perera
Download or read book Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology written by Ajith H. Perera and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-21 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Typically, landscape ecologists use empirical observations to conduct research and devise solutions for applied problems in conservation and management. In some instances, they rely on advice and input of experienced professionals in both developing and applying knowledge. Given the wealth of expert knowledge and the risks of its informal and implicit applications in landscape ecology, it is necessary to formally recognize and characterize expert knowledge and bring rigor to methods for its applications. In this context, the broad goal of this book is to introduce the concept of expert knowledge and examine its role in landscape ecological applications. We plan to do so in three steps: First we introduce the topic to landscape ecologists, explore salient characteristics of experts and expert knowledge, and describe methods used in capturing and formalizing that knowledge. Second, we present examples of research in landscape ecology from a variety of ecosystems and geographic locations that formally incorporate expert knowledge. These case studies address a range of topics that will interest landscape ecologists and other resource management and conservation professionals including the specific roles of expert knowledge in developing, testing, parameterizing, and applying models; estimating the uncertainty in expert knowledge; developing methods of formalizing and incorporating expert knowledge; and using expert knowledge as competing models and a source of alternate hypotheses. Third, we synthesize the state of knowledge on this topic and critically examine the advantages and disadvantages of incorporating expert knowledge in landscape ecological applications. The disciplinary subject areas we address are broad and cover much of the scope of contemporary landscape ecology, including broad-scale forest management and conservation, quantifying forest disturbances and succession, conservation of habitats for a range of avian and mammal species, vulnerability and conservation of marine ecosystems, and the spread and impacts of invasive plants. This text incorporates the collective experience and knowledge of over 35 researchers in landscape ecology representing a diverse range of disciplinary subject areas and geographic locations. Through this text, we will catalyze further thought and investigations on expert knowledge among the target readership of researchers, practitioners, and graduate students in landscape ecology.
Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability: Methodology and Applications by : Tomasz Nowakowski
Download or read book Safety and Reliability: Methodology and Applications written by Tomasz Nowakowski and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-09-01 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within the last fifty years the performance requirements for technical objects and systems were supplemented with: customer expectations (quality), abilities to prevent the loss of the object properties in operation time (reliability and maintainability), protection against the effects of undesirable events (safety and security) and the ability to
Book Synopsis Experts in Uncertainty by : Roger M. Cooke
Download or read book Experts in Uncertainty written by Roger M. Cooke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1991-10-24 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Book Synopsis A Primer for Sampling Solids, Liquids, and Gases by : Patricia L. Smith
Download or read book A Primer for Sampling Solids, Liquids, and Gases written by Patricia L. Smith and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ideas of Pierre Gy presented in lay terms, allowing concepts and principles to be easily grasped and applied.
Book Synopsis Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities by : Charles B. Connor
Download or read book Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities written by Charles B. Connor and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-27 with total page 671 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A summary of the current state-of-the-art in volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment of nuclear facilities for researchers, geologists and engineers.
Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Volume 3 by :
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Volume 3 written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-12-16 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ENCYCLOPEDIA OF STATISTICAL SCIENCES
Book Synopsis Handbook of Advanced Performability Engineering by : Krishna B. Misra
Download or read book Handbook of Advanced Performability Engineering written by Krishna B. Misra and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-16 with total page 811 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book considers all aspects of performability engineering, providing a holistic view of the activities associated with a product throughout its entire life cycle of the product, as well as the cost of minimizing the environmental impact at each stage, while maximizing the performance. Building on the editor's previous Handbook of Performability Engineering, it explains how performability engineering provides us with a framework to consider both dependability and sustainability in the optimal design of products, systems and services, and explores the role of performability in energy and waste minimization, raw material selection, increased production volume, and many other areas of engineering and production. The book discusses a range of new ideas, concepts, disciplines, and applications in performability, including smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0; cyber-physical systems and artificial intelligence; digital transformation of railways; and asset management. Given its broad scope, it will appeal to researchers, academics, industrial practitioners and postgraduate students involved in manufacturing, engineering, and system and product development.
