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Author : Jacob Mincer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 8 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)
Download or read book 19. Economic Forecasts and Expectations written by Jacob Mincer and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher : New York : National Bureau of Economic Research, distributed by Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 630 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasts and Expectations written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by New York : National Bureau of Economic Research, distributed by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 1969 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Collection of essays in the evaluation of efficiency in economic forecasting methodology - includes estimates of gross national product, consumption patterns, statistical methods, simulation models, etc. References.
Author : Jacob Mincer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 251 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasts and Expectations written by Jacob Mincer and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Roman Frydman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521310956
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444627405
Total Pages : 667 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author : G. Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080460674
Total Pages : 1071 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-30 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing. *Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines
Author : Andrew Bauer
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437900437
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)
Download or read book Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts written by Andrew Bauer and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-06 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A central bank¿s transparency about its objectives, economic outlook, & policy changes may affect the public¿s views about future economic & financial conditions. In keeping with this theory, since 1994 the Fed. Open Market Comm. has gradually increased the transparency of its statements accompanying changes in the fed. funds rate target. This article investigates whether private agents¿ ability to predict the economy¿s direction has improved since 1994. The analysis focuses on forecasts of macroecon. variables such as inflation, gross domestic product growth, & unemployment & policy variables such as short-term interest rates. There is little evidence that transparent monetary policy enhances the public¿s ability to predict bus. cycles. Tables.
Author : Jacob Mincer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 251 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasts and Expectations written by Jacob Mincer and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Olivier Coibion
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475519249
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process written by Mr.Olivier Coibion and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-20 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
Author : Mr.José M. Barrionuevo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451972237
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations written by Mr.José M. Barrionuevo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
Author : Ruediger Bachmann
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128234768
Total Pages : 876 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Author : Elia Xacapyr
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315480670
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art written by Elia Xacapyr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.
Author : S. A. Ozga
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 135152108X
Total Pages : 303 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (515 download)
Download or read book Expectations in Economic Theory written by S. A. Ozga and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with economic theory, not methodology. It does employ certain methodological resolutions. These resolutions and the limitations they impose on the nature and the scope of the analysis are reviewed. The first resolution concerns what kind of a theory is to be discussed. The word theory may mean many things; it may mean a hypothesis put forward as an explanation of something, an idea, or a notion. In a normative sense it may mean a recommendation, a rule, or principle to be followed. In science it usually means a system of hypotheses to be accepted as an explanation of certain facts, a set of general laws, and principles. It is also used to distinguish the general principles and methods of a subject from the practice of it.The theory with which this volume is concerned is that of science. In very general terms it may be defined as a system of hypotheses, one following from another, which permits the reader to derive from known facts and predictions of other facts. If the knowledge of the fact which we predict is important for us, in the sense that it permits us to achieve better the objectives we pursue, the theory may have a practical value. This book is therefore not only a contribution to the analysis of expectations but also an introduction to a number of selected topics in economic theory.
Author : Jonas Dovern
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484305205
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Information Rigidities written by Jonas Dovern and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-12 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Each quarter since 1968 the National Bureau of Economic Research, in collaboration with the American Statistical Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a progress report on a comprehensive study of the distribution of individual predictions from these surveys. It covers forecasts of quarterly developments in the year ahead for six variables representing inflation, real growth, unemployment, percentage changes in GNP and spending on consumer durables, and business inventory investment. The 79 respondents who participated in at least 12 of the 42 surveys covered constitute a broadly based and diversified group of experts and agents, mostly from the world of corporate business and finance -- executives, analysts, economic consultants, also some government and academic forecasters. The data are in certain respects uniquely rich. The first part of the paper reviews briefly the models of economic expectations and discusses the potential and problems of using survey data for testing these models. The second part offers a comparative analysis of the individual prediction series from the NBER-ASA as well as some earlier surveys. There are gains from combining predictions from different sources, e.g., the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts or expectations. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative 2erformances of individual fore- casters, some of whom score well above average with respect to several variables and predictive horizons. The third section presents the distributions of an array of absolute accuracy measures for the survey respondents, regressions of actual on predicted values, and associated tests of bias and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and realizations tend to decrease, as the target quarter recedes into the future. The tests of the joint null hypothesis that the regressions have zero intercepts and unitary slope coefficients are very unfavorable to expectations of inflation, but they show the forecasts of the other variables generally in much better light. Inflation has been largely underestimated, with the predicted rates lagging behind the actual rates. On the other hand, real growth has been on the average overestimated. The incidence of autocorrelation in the prediction errors was also much higher for inflation than for the other variables. A summary of findings is provided. The fifth and last section lists some additional questions raised by this study, to be dealt with in another paper.
Author : Jacob Mincer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 251 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (69 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasts and Expectation Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance written by Jacob Mincer and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
