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Dynamic Economic Problems With Regime Switches
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Book Synopsis Dynamic Economic Problems with Regime Switches by : Josef L. Haunschmied
Download or read book Dynamic Economic Problems with Regime Switches written by Josef L. Haunschmied and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-07 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the state of the art in the relatively new field of dynamic economic modelling with regime switches. The contributions, written by prominent scholars in the field, focus on dynamic decision problems with regime changes in underlying dynamics or objectives. Such changes can be externally driven or internally induced by decisions. Utilising the most advanced mathematical methods in optimal control and dynamic game theory, the authors address a broad range of topics, including capital accumulation, innovations, financial decisions, population economics, environmental and resource economics, institutional change and the dynamics of addiction. Given its scope, the book will appeal to all scholars interested in mathematical and quantitative economics.
Book Synopsis Nonlinearities in Economics by : Giuseppe Orlando
Download or read book Nonlinearities in Economics written by Giuseppe Orlando and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-08-31 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This interdisciplinary book argues that the economy has an underlying non-linear structure and that business cycles are endogenous, which allows a greater explanatory power with respect to the traditional assumption that dynamics are stochastic and shocks are exogenous. The first part of this work is formal-methodological and provides the mathematical background needed for the remainder, while the second part presents the view that signal processing involves construction and deconstruction of information and that the efficacy of this process can be measured. The third part focuses on economics and provides the related background and literature on economic dynamics and the fourth part is devoted to new perspectives in understanding nonlinearities in economic dynamics: growth and cycles. By pursuing this approach, the book seeks to (1) determine whether, and if so where, common features exist, (2) discover some hidden features of economic dynamics, and (3) highlight specific indicators of structural changes in time series. Accordingly, it is a must read for everyone interested in a better understanding of economic dynamics, business cycles, econometrics and complex systems, as well as non-linear dynamics and chaos theory.
Book Synopsis Frontiers of Dynamic Games by : Leon A. Petrosyan
Download or read book Frontiers of Dynamic Games written by Leon A. Petrosyan and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-31 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book includes papers presented at the ISDG12-GTM2019 International Meeting on Game Theory, as a joint meeting of the 12th International ISDG Workshop and the 13th "International Conference on Game Theory and Management”, held in St. Petersburg in July 2019. The topics cover a wide range of game-theoretic models and include both theory and applications, including applications to management.
Book Synopsis Wages, Regime Switching, and Cycles by : Piero Ferri
Download or read book Wages, Regime Switching, and Cycles written by Piero Ferri and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial purposes of this book were to update and extend the discussion and the results presented ill our previous book, The Labor Market and Business Cycle Theories. Our 1990 article, which appeared in The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, represented a first step in this direction. The consequences of this effort have materialized in a number of new chapters that has led de facto to a new book, in which the surviving parts have been largely revised. The 1989 book was too mathematically oriented for many Keynesians and post Keynesians to be fully appreciated and insufficiently microfounded for both new classicals and new-Keynesians to be warmly accepted, yet we received positive and encouraging comments, and it was sold out very quickly. It was an attempt to dis cuss dynamics in Keynesian terms, based on a double assumption that maintains its validity-that both economic facts and analytical and methodological innova tions had contributed to a renewed interest in business cycles, which over time has had its "ups and downs." Since then, many more articles and books have appeared, stressing in particular the role of microfoundations and of nonlinearities in shaping business cycle theory.
Book Synopsis Sustainable Macroeconomics, Climate Risks and Energy Transitions by : Unurjargal Nyambuu
Download or read book Sustainable Macroeconomics, Climate Risks and Energy Transitions written by Unurjargal Nyambuu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-30 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Given the industrialized world’s historical dependence on fossil fuel-based energy resources and the now-realized perils of moving beyond the earth’s carbon budget, this book explores the myriad challenges of climate change and in reaching a low-carbon economy. Reconciling the medium-term competing, yet frequently complementary, needs for transition policies, the book provides guidelines for complex and often conflicting climate policy tasks. The book presents empirical trends in the use of carbon-emitting resources and evaluates market-driven short-termism and its adverse impact on resource use and the environment; it emphasizes a medium-term macroeconomic perspective for the transition. The authors attempt a paradigm shift towards a framework of sustainable macroeconomics. They survey relevant historical models, conduct empirical and numerical analyses of the climate change-relevant dynamic models, provide empirical illustrations, and evaluate diverse policy options and implementations together with their historical evolution. New analytical issues are also considered, e.g., strategic behavior in the energy and resource sectors, energy competition and the dynamics of market shares in new energy technology, and supporting policies for dealing with the tipping points encountered in climate change. The authors suggest a multitude of market-based strategies and public fiscal, monetary, and financial policies, and longer-run planning for resource extraction -all suitable for driving sustainable growth and a transformation of the energy sector. The book also examines the multiple delaying forces slowing the transition to a low-carbon economy; these typically arise from short-termism, lock-ins, irreversibility, leakages, non-cooperative games, and other political strategies. Thus, they explain the snail’s pace evolution of current national and global climate policies. The book will appeal to scholars and students of economics and environmental science. It is also relevant for policymakers and practitioners in multilateral institutions, research institutions as well as governments and ministries of countries interested in alternative energy sources, climate economists, and those who study the implementation of sustainable and low carbon-based policies.
Book Synopsis Multiplicity of Time Scales in Complex Systems by : Bernhelm Booss
Download or read book Multiplicity of Time Scales in Complex Systems written by Bernhelm Booss and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Zusammenfassung: This highly interdisciplinary volume brings together a carefully curated set of case studies examining complex systems with multiple time scales (MTS) across a variety of fields: materials science, epidemiology, cell physiology, mathematics, climatology, energy transition planning, ecology, economics, sociology, history, and cultural studies. The book addresses the vast diversity of interacting processes underlying the behaviour of different complex systems, highlighting the multiplicity of characteristic time scales that are a common feature of many and showcases a rich variety of methodologies across disciplinary boundaries. Self-organizing, out-of-equilibrium, ever-evolving systems are ubiquitous in the natural and social world. Examples include the climate, ecosystems, living cells, epidemics, the human brain, and many socio-economic systems across history. Their dynamical behaviour poses great challenges in the pressing context of the climate crisis, since they may involve nonlinearities, feedback loops, and the emergence of spatial-temporal patterns, portrayed by resilience or instability, plasticity or rigidity; bifurcations, thresholds and tipping points; burst-in excitation or slow relaxation, and worlds of other asymptotic behaviour, hysteresis, and resistance to change. Chapters can be read individually by the reader with special interest in such behaviours of particular complex systems or in specific disciplinary perspectives. Read together, however, the case studies, opinion pieces, and meta-studies on MTS systems presented and analysed here combine to give the reader insights that are more than the sum of the book's individual chapters, as surprising similarities become apparent in seemingly disparate and unconnected systems. MTS systems call into question naïve perceptions of time and complexity, moving beyond conventional ways of description, analysis, understanding, modelling, numerical prediction, and prescription of the world around us. This edited collection presents new ways of forecasting, introduces new means of control, and - perhaps as the most demanding task - it singles out a sustainable description of an MTS system under observation, offering a more nuanced interpretation of the floods of quantitative data and images made available by high- and low-frequency measurement tools in our unprecedented era of information flows
Book Synopsis Mathematical Methods for Engineering Applications by : Víctor Gayoso Martínez
Download or read book Mathematical Methods for Engineering Applications written by Víctor Gayoso Martínez and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Economic Crises and Policy Regimes by : Hideko Magara
Download or read book Economic Crises and Policy Regimes written by Hideko Magara and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this innovative book, Hideko Magara brings together an expert team to explore both the possibilities and difficulties of transitioning from a neoliberal policy regime to an alternative regime through drastic policy innovations. The authors argue that, for more than two decades, citizens in developed countries have witnessed massive job losses, lowered wages, slow economic growth and widening inequality under a neoliberal policy regime that has placed heavy constraints on policy choices. The book explores, both theoretically and empirically, the possibility of transition to a new political economic paradigm by seeking feasible answers to questions such as: why has such a regime persisted for a long period of time despite its poor policy performance?; is it possible for democracy to overcome economic crisis through its electoral mechanisms?; and, under what conditions can each government convert crisis of its economy into growth? The book concludes that under different policy regimes, whether Keynesian or neoliberal, there are a variety of growth regimes, and economic performances will consequently vary considerably. The authors ultimately argue that policy innovations need not only political leadership but also the very creation of a new economic theory in order to break a critical juncture of economic stalemates. Economic Crises and Policy Regimes will appeal to policy makers and practitioners internationally and is an important resource for political scientists, economists and sociologists. Advanced students of comparative politics, comparative political economy and institutional economics will also find much to benefit them in this book. Contributors include B. Amable, R. Boyer, L.C. Bresser-Pereira, N. Fujita, K. Fukuda, M. Ido, H.B. Im, H. Magara, A. Martinelli, H. Nishi, S. Palombarini, A. Przeworski, S. Sacchi, H. Shiratori, T. Yamada, Y. Yanai
Book Synopsis Dynamic Optimization in Environmental Economics by : Elke Moser
Download or read book Dynamic Optimization in Environmental Economics written by Elke Moser and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents new developments in the dynamic modeling and optimization methods in environmental economics and provides a huge range of applications dealing with the economics of natural resources, the impacts of climate change and of environmental pollution, and respective policy measures. The interrelationship between economic activities and environmental quality, the development of cleaner technologies, the switch from fossil to renewable resources and the proper use of policy instruments play an important role along the path towards a sustainable future. Biological, physical and economic processes are naturally involved in the subject, and postulate the main modelling, simulation and decision-making tools: the methods of dynamic optimization and dynamic games.
Download or read book Minsky’s Moment written by Piero Ferri and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2019 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At its core this book sets out the analytical and methodological foundations of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis (FIH). Grounded on the joint work of Piero Ferri and Hyman Minsky, it offers insightful analysis from a unique insider's perspective. The objective is to deepen and enlarge the toolbox used by Minsky and to place the analysis within a dynamic perspective where a meta model, based upon regime switching, can encompass the different forms that the FIH can assume.
Book Synopsis Methods and Finance by : Emiliano Ippoliti
Download or read book Methods and Finance written by Emiliano Ippoliti and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-12-23 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book offers an interdisciplinary perspective on finance, with a special focus on stock markets. It presents new methodologies for analyzing stock markets’ behavior and discusses theories and methods of finance from different angles, such as the mathematical, physical and philosophical ones. The book, which aims at philosophers and economists alike, represents a rare yet important attempt to unify the externalist with the internalist conceptions of finance.
Book Synopsis State-Space Models with Regime Switching by : Chang-Jin Kim
Download or read book State-Space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data. The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Book Synopsis Regime-Switching Factor Models and Nowcasting with Big Data by : Omer Faruk Akbal
Download or read book Regime-Switching Factor Models and Nowcasting with Big Data written by Omer Faruk Akbal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-09-06 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for regime-switching dynamic factor models provides satisfactory performance relative to other estimation methods and delivers a good trade-off between accuracy and speed, which makes it especially useful for large dimensional data. Unlike traditional numerical maximization approaches, this methodology benefits from closed-form solutions for parameter estimation, enhancing its practicality for real-time applications and historical data exercises with focus on frequent updates. In a nowcasting application to vintage US data, I study the information content and relative performance of regime-switching model after each data releases in a fifteen year period, which was only feasible due to the time efficiency of the proposed estimation methodology. While existing literature has already acknowledged the performance improvement of nowcasting models under regime-switching, this paper shows that the superior nowcasting performance observed particularly when key economic indicators are released. In a backcasting exercise, I show that the model can closely match the recession starting and ending dates of the NBER despite having less information than actual committee meetings, where the fit between actual dates and model estimates becomes more apparent with the additional available information and recession end dates are fully covered with a lag of three to six months. Given that the EM algorithm proposed in this paper is suitable for various regime-switching configurations, this paper provides economists and policymakers with a valuable tool for conducting comprehensive analyses, ranging from point estimates to information decomposition and persistence of recessions in larger datasets.
Book Synopsis Nonlinear Evolution of Spatial Economic Systems by : Peter Nijkamp
Download or read book Nonlinear Evolution of Spatial Economic Systems written by Peter Nijkamp and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is our world more dynamic than it used to be in the past? Have phenomena in the social science field become unpredictable? Are chaotic events nowadays occurring more frequently than in the past? Such questions are often raised in popular debates on nonlinear evolution and self-organizing systems. At the same time, many scientists are also raising various intruiging methodological issues. Is it possible to separate deterministic chaos from random disturbances if their trajectories are (almost) similar? Is prediction still possible in a world of chaos (Poincare)? Is it possible to distinguish specification errors from measurement errors in a nonlinear dynamic model? Is evolution a random process? The list of such questions can easily be extended with dozens of others. But despite the myriad of questions on problems of nonlinear evolution, one common trait is evident: in both the natural and the social sciences we are still groping in the dark in areas which are par excellence promising hunting grounds for exploratory and exploratory research, viz. structural grounds in an uncertain nonlinear world. The present book aims at offering a collection of refreshing contributions to the above research issues by focusing attention, in particular on nonlinear dynamic evolution in space at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study (NIAS) in Wassenaar, the Netherlands. The Institute has to be thanked for its hospitality and support, reflected inter alia in a workshop at which several of the papers included in this book were discussed.
Book Synopsis Income Distribution, Growth and Unemployment by : Ferri, Piero
Download or read book Income Distribution, Growth and Unemployment written by Ferri, Piero and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2022-03-15 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Piero Ferri expertly broadens the analysis of the canonical growth cycle approach by presenting a Minsky–Harrod model, examining how the relationship between income distribution, growth and unemployment becomes increasingly complex. Exploring this new technique to generate a process of growth, based not only on history but disequilibrium, he investigates the current income distribution debate further and the challenges it faces.
Download or read book Markov Chains written by Wai-Ki Ching and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-27 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition of Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications has been completely reformatted as a text, complete with end-of-chapter exercises, a new focus on management science, new applications of the models, and new examples with applications in financial risk management and modeling of financial data. This book consists of eight chapters. Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the classical theory on both discrete and continuous time Markov chains. The relationship between Markov chains of finite states and matrix theory will also be highlighted. Some classical iterative methods for solving linear systems will be introduced for finding the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. The chapter then covers the basic theories and algorithms for hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs). Chapter 2 discusses the applications of continuous time Markov chains to model queueing systems and discrete time Markov chain for computing the PageRank, the ranking of websites on the Internet. Chapter 3 studies Markovian models for manufacturing and re-manufacturing systems and presents closed form solutions and fast numerical algorithms for solving the captured systems. In Chapter 4, the authors present a simple hidden Markov model (HMM) with fast numerical algorithms for estimating the model parameters. An application of the HMM for customer classification is also presented. Chapter 5 discusses Markov decision processes for customer lifetime values. Customer Lifetime Values (CLV) is an important concept and quantity in marketing management. The authors present an approach based on Markov decision processes for the calculation of CLV using real data. Chapter 6 considers higher-order Markov chain models, particularly a class of parsimonious higher-order Markov chain models. Efficient estimation methods for model parameters based on linear programming are presented. Contemporary research results on applications to demand predictions, inventory control and financial risk measurement are also presented. In Chapter 7, a class of parsimonious multivariate Markov models is introduced. Again, efficient estimation methods based on linear programming are presented. Applications to demand predictions, inventory control policy and modeling credit ratings data are discussed. Finally, Chapter 8 re-visits hidden Markov models, and the authors present a new class of hidden Markov models with efficient algorithms for estimating the model parameters. Applications to modeling interest rates, credit ratings and default data are discussed. This book is aimed at senior undergraduate students, postgraduate students, professionals, practitioners, and researchers in applied mathematics, computational science, operational research, management science and finance, who are interested in the formulation and computation of queueing networks, Markov chain models and related topics. Readers are expected to have some basic knowledge of probability theory, Markov processes and matrix theory.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance by : Lucas Bernard
Download or read book Dynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance written by Lucas Bernard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-03 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.
