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Do Forecasters Believe In Okuns Law An Assessment Of Unemployment And Output Forecasts
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Book Synopsis Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-10 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989.
Book Synopsis Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-10 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989.
Download or read book Okun's Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Book Synopsis Political Economy Perspectives on the Greek Crisis by : Ioannis Bournakis
Download or read book Political Economy Perspectives on the Greek Crisis written by Ioannis Bournakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-27 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive guide to the on-going Greek debt crisis. It identifies and explains Greece’s idiosyncratic weaknesses, and highlights the existing rigidities in the EU architecture that make the recovery prospects of the Greek economy challenging. Chapters from expert contributors highlight aspects of the performance of the Greek economy with focus on export performance, labour market conditions, political cycles and regional income disparities. The book then goes on to outline the banking system in Greece in the post-crisis era, and includes analysis that explains how the credit rating score affected Greece’s borrowing capacity prior to the start of the insolvency crisis. The final part analyses and compares alternative scenarios of fiscal consolidation, seeking to identify whether there are alternatives to fiscal austerity and the impact of each one of them. This section also clarifies various misconceptions about the significant determinants of international competitiveness. Despite the focus of the book, the lessons drawn from the chapters are not limited to Greece. This volume will be of interest to academics, practitioners and policy makers who wish to take a closer look at the Greek debt crisis and learn more about the challenges the Greek economy is currently facing.
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Book Synopsis Forecasts in Times of Crises by : Theo S. Eicher
Download or read book Forecasts in Times of Crises written by Theo S. Eicher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475544162 Total Pages :20 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-30 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.
Book Synopsis Phishing for Phools by : George A. Akerlof
Download or read book Phishing for Phools written by George A. Akerlof and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-09-22 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why the free-market system encourages so much trickery even as it creates so much good Ever since Adam Smith, the central teaching of economics has been that free markets provide us with material well-being, as if by an invisible hand. In Phishing for Phools, Nobel Prize–winning economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller deliver a fundamental challenge to this insight, arguing that markets harm as well as help us. As long as there is profit to be made, sellers will systematically exploit our psychological weaknesses and our ignorance through manipulation and deception. Rather than being essentially benign and always creating the greater good, markets are inherently filled with tricks and traps and will "phish" us as "phools." Phishing for Phools therefore strikes a radically new direction in economics, based on the intuitive idea that markets both give and take away. Akerlof and Shiller bring this idea to life through dozens of stories that show how phishing affects everyone, in almost every walk of life. We spend our money up to the limit, and then worry about how to pay the next month's bills. The financial system soars, then crashes. We are attracted, more than we know, by advertising. Our political system is distorted by money. We pay too much for gym memberships, cars, houses, and credit cards. Drug companies ingeniously market pharmaceuticals that do us little good, and sometimes are downright dangerous. Phishing for Phools explores the central role of manipulation and deception in fascinating detail in each of these areas and many more. It thereby explains a paradox: why, at a time when we are better off than ever before in history, all too many of us are leading lives of quiet desperation. At the same time, the book tells stories of individuals who have stood against economic trickery—and how it can be reduced through greater knowledge, reform, and regulation.
Book Synopsis R In Finance And Economics: A Beginner's Guide by : Abhay Kumar Singh
Download or read book R In Finance And Economics: A Beginner's Guide written by Abhay Kumar Singh and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2016-12-14 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an introduction to the statistical software R and its application with an empirical approach in finance and economics. It is specifically targeted towards undergraduate and graduate students. It provides beginner-level introduction to R using RStudio and reproducible research examples. It will enable students to use R for data cleaning, data visualization and quantitative model building using statistical methods like linear regression, econometrics (GARCH etc), Copulas, etc. Moreover, the book demonstrates latest research methods with applications featuring linear regression, quantile regression, panel regression, econometrics, dependence modelling, etc. using a range of data sets and examples.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484348834 Total Pages :657 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis China’s Insolvency Law and Interregional Cooperation by : Xinyi Gong
Download or read book China’s Insolvency Law and Interregional Cooperation written by Xinyi Gong and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-20 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a result of resumption of sovereignty over Hong Kong and Macao as well as the uncertain relationship between the Mainland and Taiwan, China has become a country composed of peculiar political compounds, resulting in four independent jurisdictions. This makes inter-regional legal cooperation a complicated yet compelling topic. Divided into five parts, this book considers possible solutions to problems in China’s inter-regional cross-border insolvency cooperation. These solutions are developed on the basis of two groups of comparative studies, including comparison among the cross-border insolvency systems of the four independent jurisdictions in China and comparison between EU Insolvency Regulation and the UNCITRAL Model Law. The author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the two systems and presents original recommendations for the way forward. The book will be a valuable resource for academics and policy makers in insolvency law, Asian law and comparative law.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498366821 Total Pages :14 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Research Bulletin, June 2014 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book Research Bulletin, June 2014 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-12 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Book Synopsis Labor Market Policies and Unemployment in Morocco by : Pierre-Richard Agénor
Download or read book Labor Market Policies and Unemployment in Morocco written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2003 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors study the impact of labor market policies on unemployment in Morocco. They begin by reviewing the main features of the labor market. Then they present a quantitative framework that captures many of these features-such as a large public sector, high redundancy payments, powerful trade unions, and international labor migration. The authors simulate the impact of a cut in the minimum wage and a reduction in payroll taxation. The results indicate that these policies may have a significant impact in the short term on open unskilled unemployment. But they also show that labor market reforms, to be effective in the long run, may need to be accompanied by offsetting changes in the budget to avoid crowding-out effects on private investment.
Book Synopsis The Disappointing Recovery by : United States. Congressional Budget Office
Download or read book The Disappointing Recovery written by United States. Congressional Budget Office and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2017 by : Janice Eberly
Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2017 written by Janice Eberly and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2017-10-10 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues.
Book Synopsis Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. by : Mr.Olivier Coibion
Download or read book Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. written by Mr.Olivier Coibion and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Quarterly Projection Model for India by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book Quarterly Projection Model for India written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
