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Diagnostic Analysis And Computational Strategies For Estimating Single Spell Discrete Time Duration Models A Monte Carlo Study
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Book Synopsis Diagnostic Analysis and Computational Strategies for Estimating Single Spell Discrete Time Duration Models - A Monte Carlo Study by : Xianghong Li
Download or read book Diagnostic Analysis and Computational Strategies for Estimating Single Spell Discrete Time Duration Models - A Monte Carlo Study written by Xianghong Li and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This extensive Monte Carlo study re-examines properties of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity and unknown duration dependence. Alternative specifications and computation strategies are compared. We find: i) The inherent complexity of mixture models poses the major estimation hurdle. ii) It is important to choose a flexible specification for duration dependence. Polynomial specifications with a fixed number of terms can lead to systematically biased estimates of the hazard. iii) In estimation, simulated annealing is found to dominate all other optimization algorithms. Common applied research problems, such as near-boundary false optima are eliminated. iv) A bootstrap procedure is suggested to help choose the number of support points of unobserved heterogeneity. v) Likelihood ratio tests may still be appropriate especially when there are many common parameters in the components of the model. vi) Gateaux derivatives do not appear to help optimize the likelihood function.
Book Synopsis Lectures on Monte Carlo Methods by : Neal Noah Madras
Download or read book Lectures on Monte Carlo Methods written by Neal Noah Madras and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2002 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods form an experimental branch of mathematics that employs simulations driven by random number generators. These methods are often used when others fail, since they are much less sensitive to the ``curse of dimensionality'', which plagues deterministic methods in problems with a large number of variables. Monte Carlo methods are used in many fields: mathematics, statistics, physics, chemistry, finance, computer science, and biology, for instance. This book is an introduction to Monte Carlo methods for anyone who would like to use these methods to study various kinds of mathematical models that arise in diverse areas of application. The book is based on lectures in a graduate course given by the author. It examines theoretical properties of Monte Carlo methods as well as practical issues concerning their computer implementation and statistical analysis. The only formal prerequisite is an undergraduate course in probability. The book is intended to be accessible to students from a wide range of scientific backgrounds. Rather than being a detailed treatise, it covers the key topics of Monte Carlo methods to the depth necessary for a researcher to design, implement, and analyze a full Monte Carlo study of a mathematical or scientific problem. The ideas are illustrated with diverse running examples. There are exercises sprinkled throughout the text. The topics covered include computer generation of random variables, techniques and examples for variance reduction of Monte Carlo estimates, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and statistical analysis of Monte Carlo output.
Book Synopsis Parametric Estimates by the Monte Carlo Method by : G. A. Mikhailov
Download or read book Parametric Estimates by the Monte Carlo Method written by G. A. Mikhailov and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2018-11-05 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No detailed description available for "Parametric Estimates by the Monte Carlo Method".
Book Synopsis Monte-Carlo Simulation-Based Statistical Modeling by : Ding-Geng (Din) Chen
Download or read book Monte-Carlo Simulation-Based Statistical Modeling written by Ding-Geng (Din) Chen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-01 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together expert researchers engaged in Monte-Carlo simulation-based statistical modeling, offering them a forum to present and discuss recent issues in methodological development as well as public health applications. It is divided into three parts, with the first providing an overview of Monte-Carlo techniques, the second focusing on missing data Monte-Carlo methods, and the third addressing Bayesian and general statistical modeling using Monte-Carlo simulations. The data and computer programs used here will also be made publicly available, allowing readers to replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter, and to readily apply them in their own research. Featuring highly topical content, the book has the potential to impact model development and data analyses across a wide spectrum of fields, and to spark further research in this direction.
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Methods by : Neal Noah Madras
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods written by Neal Noah Madras and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2000 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the proceedings of the Workshop on Monte Carlo Methods held at The Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences (Toronto, 1998). The workshop brought together researchers in physics, statistics, and probability. The papers in this volume - of the invited speakers and contributors to the poster session - represent the interdisciplinary emphasis of the conference. Monte Carlo methods have been used intensively in many branches of scientific inquiry. Markov chain methods have been at the forefront of much of this work, serving as the basis of many numerical studies in statistical physics and related areas since the Metropolis algorithm was introduced in 1953. Statisticians and theoretical computer scientists have used these methods in recent years, working on different fundamental research questions, yet using similar Monte Carlo methodology. This volume focuses on Monte Carlo methods that appear to have wide applicability and emphasizes new methods, practical applications and theoretical analysis. It will be of interest to researchers and graduate students who study and/or use Monte Carlo methods in areas of probability, statistics, theoretical physics, or computer science.
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Methods for Applied Scientists by : Ivan Dimov
Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods for Applied Scientists written by Ivan Dimov and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Monte Carlo method is inherently parallel and the extensive and rapid development in parallel computers, computational clusters and grids has resulted in renewed and increasing interest in this method. At the same time there has been an expansion in the application areas and the method is now widely used in many important areas of science including nuclear and semiconductor physics, statistical mechanics and heat and mass transfer. This book attempts to bridge the gap between theory and practice concentrating on modern algorithmic implementation on parallel architecture machines. Although a suitable text for final year postgraduate mathematicians and computational scientists it is principally aimed at the applied scientists: only a small amount of mathematical knowledge is assumed and theorem proving is kept to a minimum, with the main focus being on parallel algorithms development often to applied industrial problems. A selection of algorithms developed both for serial and parallel machines are provided. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Introduction (231 KB). Contents: Basic Results of Monte Carlo Integration; Optimal Monte Carlo Method for Multidimensional Integrals of Smooth Functions; Iterative Monte Carlo Methods for Linear Equations; Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Eigenvalue Problems; Monte Carlo Methods for Boundary-Value Problems (BVP); Superconvergent Monte Carlo for Density Function Simulation by B-Splines; Solving Non-Linear Equations; Algorithmic Effciency for Different Computer Models; Applications for Transport Modeling in Semiconductors and Nanowires. Readership: Applied scientists and mathematicians.
Book Synopsis The Monte Carlo Method by : Yu.A. Shreider
Download or read book The Monte Carlo Method written by Yu.A. Shreider and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-05-16 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Monte Carlo Method: The Method of Statistical Trials is a systematic account of the fundamental concepts and techniques of the Monte Carlo method, together with its range of applications. Some of these applications include the computation of definite integrals, neutron physics, and in the investigation of servicing processes. This volume is comprised of seven chapters and begins with an overview of the basic features of the Monte Carlo method and typical examples of its application to simple problems in computational mathematics. The next chapter examines the computation of multi-dimensional integrals using the Monte Carlo method. Some examples of statistical modeling of integrals are analyzed, together with the accuracy of the computations. Subsequent chapters focus on the applications of the Monte Carlo method in neutron physics; in the investigation of servicing processes; in communication theory; and in the generation of uniformly distributed random numbers on electronic computers. Methods for organizing statistical experiments on universal digital computers are discussed. This book is designed for a wide circle of readers, ranging from those who are interested in the fundamental applications of the Monte Carlo method, to those who are concerned with comparatively limited problems of the peculiarities of simulating physical processes.
Book Synopsis Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice by : Arnaud Doucet
Download or read book Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice written by Arnaud Doucet and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 590 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.
Book Synopsis Random Number Generation and Monte Carlo Methods by : James E. Gentle
Download or read book Random Number Generation and Monte Carlo Methods written by James E. Gentle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo simulation has become one of the most important tools in all fields of science. This book surveys the basic techniques and principles of the subject, as well as general techniques useful in more complicated models and in novel settings. The emphasis throughout is on practical methods that work well in current computing environments.
Book Synopsis Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientific Computing by : Jun S. Liu
Download or read book Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientific Computing written by Jun S. Liu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a self-contained and up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared. Given the interdisciplinary nature of the topics and a moderate prerequisite for the reader, this book should be of interest to a broad audience of quantitative researchers such as computational biologists, computer scientists, econometricians, engineers, probabilists, and statisticians. It can also be used as a textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods.
Book Synopsis New Monte Carlo Methods With Estimating Derivatives by : G. A. Mikhailov
Download or read book New Monte Carlo Methods With Estimating Derivatives written by G. A. Mikhailov and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2023-02-14 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Nonlinear Discrete-Time Filtering by : Marcelo G. S. Bruno
Download or read book Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Nonlinear Discrete-Time Filtering written by Marcelo G. S. Bruno and published by Morgan & Claypool Publishers. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In these notes, we introduce particle filtering as a recursive importance sampling method that approximates the minimum-mean-square-error (MMSE) estimate of a sequence of hidden state vectors in scenarios where the joint probability distribution of the states and the observations is non-Gaussian and, therefore, closed-form analytical expressions for the MMSE estimate are generally unavailable. We begin the notes with a review of Bayesian approaches to static (i.e., time-invariant) parameter estimation. In the sequel, we describe the solution to the problem of sequential state estimation in linear, Gaussian dynamic models, which corresponds to the well-known Kalman (or Kalman-Bucy) filter. Finally, we move to the general nonlinear, non-Gaussian stochastic filtering problem and present particle filtering as a sequential Monte Carlo approach to solve that problem in a statistically optimal way. We review several techniques to improve the performance of particle filters, including importance function optimization, particle resampling, Markov Chain Monte Carlo move steps, auxiliary particle filtering, and regularized particle filtering. We also discuss Rao-Blackwellized particle filtering as a technique that is particularly well-suited for many relevant applications such as fault detection and inertial navigation. Finally, we conclude the notes with a discussion on the emerging topic of distributed particle filtering using multiple processors located at remote nodes in a sensor network. Throughout the notes, we often assume a more general framework than in most introductory textbooks by allowing either the observation model or the hidden state dynamic model to include unknown parameters. In a fully Bayesian fashion, we treat those unknown parameters also as random variables. Using suitable dynamic conjugate priors, that approach can be applied then to perform joint state and parameter estimation. Table of Contents: Introduction / Bayesian Estimation of Static Vectors / The Stochastic Filtering Problem / Sequential Monte Carlo Methods / Sampling/Importance Resampling (SIR) Filter / Importance Function Selection / Markov Chain Monte Carlo Move Step / Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters / Auxiliary Particle Filter / Regularized Particle Filters / Cooperative Filtering with Multiple Observers / Application Examples / Summary
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo by : Nicolas Chopin
Download or read book An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo written by Nicolas Chopin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-01 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a general introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters. These methods have become a staple for the sequential analysis of data in such diverse fields as signal processing, epidemiology, machine learning, population ecology, quantitative finance, and robotics. The coverage is comprehensive, ranging from the underlying theory to computational implementation, methodology, and diverse applications in various areas of science. This is achieved by describing SMC algorithms as particular cases of a general framework, which involves concepts such as Feynman-Kac distributions, and tools such as importance sampling and resampling. This general framework is used consistently throughout the book. Extensive coverage is provided on sequential learning (filtering, smoothing) of state-space (hidden Markov) models, as this remains an important application of SMC methods. More recent applications, such as parameter estimation of these models (through e.g. particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques) and the simulation of challenging probability distributions (in e.g. Bayesian inference or rare-event problems), are also discussed. The book may be used either as a graduate text on Sequential Monte Carlo methods and state-space modeling, or as a general reference work on the area. Each chapter includes a set of exercises for self-study, a comprehensive bibliography, and a “Python corner,” which discusses the practical implementation of the methods covered. In addition, the book comes with an open source Python library, which implements all the algorithms described in the book, and contains all the programs that were used to perform the numerical experiments.
Book Synopsis Conditional Monte Carlo by : Michael C. Fu
Download or read book Conditional Monte Carlo written by Michael C. Fu and published by Springer. This book was released on 1997-03-31 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conditional Monte Carlo: Gradient Estimation and Optimization Applications deals with various gradient estimation techniques of perturbation analysis based on the use of conditional expectation. The primary setting is discrete-event stochastic simulation. This book presents applications to queueing and inventory, and to other diverse areas such as financial derivatives, pricing and statistical quality control. To researchers already in the area, this book offers a unified perspective and adequately summarizes the state of the art. To researchers new to the area, this book offers a more systematic and accessible means of understanding the techniques without having to scour through the immense literature and learn a new set of notation with each paper. To practitioners, this book provides a number of diverse application areas that makes the intuition accessible without having to fully commit to understanding all the theoretical niceties. In sum, the objectives of this monograph are two-fold: to bring together many of the interesting developments in perturbation analysis based on conditioning under a more unified framework, and to illustrate the diversity of applications to which these techniques can be applied. Conditional Monte Carlo: Gradient Estimation and Optimization Applications is suitable as a secondary text for graduate level courses on stochastic simulations, and as a reference for researchers and practitioners in industry.
Book Synopsis Student Solutions Manual to accompany Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Student Solutions Manual by : Dirk P. Kroese
Download or read book Student Solutions Manual to accompany Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Student Solutions Manual written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-01-20 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over twenty-five years ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio method and the screening method The score function method for sensitivity analysis The stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization The cross-entropy method to rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization Application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems, with an emphasis on the parametric minimum cross-entropy method An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, with more difficult sections and exercises marked accordingly for advanced readers. A generous sampling of applied examples is positioned throughout the book, emphasizing various areas of application, and a detailed appendix presents an introduction to exponential families, a discussion of the computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, and sample MATLAB® programs. Requiring only a basic, introductory knowledge of probability and statistics, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method.
Book Synopsis Modeling Discrete Time-to-Event Data by : Gerhard Tutz
Download or read book Modeling Discrete Time-to-Event Data written by Gerhard Tutz and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-14 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on statistical methods for the analysis of discrete failure times. Failure time analysis is one of the most important fields in statistical research, with applications affecting a wide range of disciplines, in particular, demography, econometrics, epidemiology and clinical research. Although there are a large variety of statistical methods for failure time analysis, many techniques are designed for failure times that are measured on a continuous scale. In empirical studies, however, failure times are often discrete, either because they have been measured in intervals (e.g., quarterly or yearly) or because they have been rounded or grouped. The book covers well-established methods like life-table analysis and discrete hazard regression models, but also introduces state-of-the art techniques for model evaluation, nonparametric estimation and variable selection. Throughout, the methods are illustrated by real life applications, and relationships to survival analysis in continuous time are explained. Each section includes a set of exercises on the respective topics. Various functions and tools for the analysis of discrete survival data are collected in the R package discSurv that accompanies the book.
Book Synopsis The Monte Carlo Methods by : Abdo Abou Jaoudé
Download or read book The Monte Carlo Methods written by Abdo Abou Jaoudé and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2022-03-09 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In applied mathematics, the name Monte Carlo is given to the method of solving problems by means of experiments with random numbers. This name, after the casino at Monaco, was first applied around 1944 to the method of solving deterministic problems by reformulating them in terms of a problem with random elements, which could then be solved by large-scale sampling. But, by extension, the term has come to mean any simulation that uses random numbers. Monte Carlo methods have become among the most fundamental techniques of simulation in modern science. This book is an illustration of the use of Monte Carlo methods applied to solve specific problems in mathematics, engineering, physics, statistics, and science in general.
