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Development Of Integrated Regional Climate Modeling Methodologies For Impact Assessment
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Book Synopsis Development of Integrated Regional Climate Modeling Methodologies for Impact Assessment by : Xiong Zhou
Download or read book Development of Integrated Regional Climate Modeling Methodologies for Impact Assessment written by Xiong Zhou and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change has been one of the most prominent and critical environmental concerns due to its potential impacts. Climate change projections, as generated through global climate models (GCMs), have been widely employed for assessments of such impacts. However, GCMs have difficulty in representing the detailed local features over limited regions. Therefore, advanced metrologies are consequently required to investigate the potential impacts of climate change. In this dissertation research, a set of integrated regional climate modeling methodologies were developed to advance the previous methodologies for potential impact assessments at regional scales under climatic changing conditions, including (a) a coupled dynamical-copula downscaling (CDCD) approach, (b) an ANOVA-based factorial dynamical downscaling (AFDD) approach, (c) a Bayesian factorial modeling (BFM) approach, (d) an ensemble RCMs-driven VIC model, (e) a stepwise cluster Bayesian (SCB) ensemble method, and (f) a mixed-level factorial inference (MLFI) approach. The developed approaches in this research could be applicable to develop future projections of climate and hydrology. Such approaches are capable of exploring the possible effects of climate change at local and regional scales. Moreover, the main and interactive effects of multiple uncertain factors on climatic and hydrologic variables could be examined based on the proposed factorial analysis approaches. The results can provide decision makers with valuable information for mitigation and adaptation of the severe impacts of climatic changes on economic, social, and environmental sectors.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems by : Joel B. Smith
Download or read book The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems written by Joel B. Smith and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book works well as a reference for how one can examine potential climate change impacts in a subnational area. A clear strength of the work lies in the unifying framework that the climate, population, and, to a somewhat lesser degree, urbanization scenarios provide. Collectively, these appear to bracket a wide range of possible drives that will shape climate change impacts. The overall analysis takes a refreshing approach in that it does not try to fit all these elements and the subsystem impact assessments into one grand integrated model, but rather develops the assessments from a common base while allowing each to follow its own logic and scale. . . it provides a welcome overview of how one can conduct a multisystem, multisector climate impact assessment that combines natural, engineering, and social sciences in a rigorous format. Kris Wernstedt, Journal of Regional Science Climate scientists have determined that recent global temperature increases are due in large part to increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Even if mitigation of these gases begins immediately, there is every reason to believe that climate change will continue to occur. Every region in the world ought to forecast, as the contributors do in this study of California (a region of broad variation and high population), how it will be affected by climate change and how it might best adapt. Models are used to estimate potential physical and biological impacts, efficient adaptations, and residual damages from climate change. The contributors cover a broad array of climate change impacts on affected market sectors (including water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, timber, and energy demand) as well as ecosystems and biodiversity. An integrated hydrologic-agriculture model is developed to explore how the region would adapt to changes in water flows. Interactions between climate impacts and population and economic growth, urbanization, and technological change are also explored. For example, the study examines how both climate change and projected land development affect the region s terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. The level of geographical detail, along with the broad applicability of the modeling, methodology, and conclusions, make this a unique and valuable reference for environmental economists, scientists, planners, and policymakers.
Book Synopsis Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region by :
Download or read book Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The methodological framework presented in this guidance document outlines the integrated assessment approach being implemented in support of the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region. The approach combines climate change impact assessment and vulnerability tools into a five step integrated assessment methodology that is based on global climate modelling, regional climate modelling, hydrological modelling, vulnerability analysis and integrated mapping tools. The guidance document aims to facilitate understanding of the methodological framework that will generate findings for informing and fostering policy dialogue on the expected impacts and implications of climate change on sustainable development in the Arab region."--Back cover.
Book Synopsis Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: by : Floor M. Brouwer
Download or read book Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: written by Floor M. Brouwer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-04-05 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agriculture increasingly faces the challenge of balancing its multiple functions in a sustainable way. Integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) can provide insight into the potential impacts of policy changes. However, concepts to address the wide range of issues and functions typical for agriculture are still scarce. Environmental and Agricultural Modelling reviews and presents our current understanding of integrated and working tools to assess and compute, ex-ante, alternative agricultural and environmental policy options, allowing: 1. Analysis at the full range of scales (farm to European Union and global) whilst focusing on the most important issues emerging at each scale; 2. Analysis of the environmental, economic and social contributions of agricultural systems towards sustainable rural development and rural viability; 3. Analysis of a broad range of issues and agents of change, such as climate change, environmental policies, rural development options, effects of an enlarging EU, international competition, and effects on developing countries.
Book Synopsis Environmental Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development: System Approaches and Advanced Methods by : Olej, Vladim¡r
Download or read book Environmental Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development: System Approaches and Advanced Methods written by Olej, Vladim¡r and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2010-11-30 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the advancement of sustainable development is critical to managing human activities to avoid the overexploitation of resources and pollution of the environment beyond tolerable levels. Sustainable development involves not only preservation and care of the environment, but also recognition of the complex relations between economic, social and living systems. Environmental Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development: System Approaches and Advanced Methods presents processing methods and their applications, which are practical for decision making and task management at the regional level as well as for scientific studies in sustainable development assessment. This book serves as a reference guide for post-graduate students in the field of management as well as a critical guide for managers, government officials, and information professionals.
Book Synopsis FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate by :
Download or read book FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or coarser spatial resolution. Further, LLNL has now built a capability in state-of-the-science mesoscale climate modeling that complements that which it has in global climate simulation, providing potential sponsors with an end-to-end simulation and analysis program.
Book Synopsis Future Climate Scenarios: Regional Climate Modelling and Data Analysis by : Xander Wang
Download or read book Future Climate Scenarios: Regional Climate Modelling and Data Analysis written by Xander Wang and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-03-11 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis New Directions in Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book New Directions in Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-17 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With effective climate change mitigation policies still under development, and with even the most aggressive proposals unable to halt climate change immediately, many decision makers are focusing unprecedented attention on the need for strategies to adapt to climate changes that are now unavoidable. The effects of climate change will touch every corner of the world's economies and societies; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological and socioeconomic systems so significantly that opportunities for adaptation become limited. This book summarizes a National Research Council workshop at which presentations and discussion identified specific needs associated with this gap between the demand and supply of scientific information about climate change adaptation.
Book Synopsis Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources by : Komaragiri Srinivasa Raju
Download or read book Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources written by Komaragiri Srinivasa Raju and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-12-29 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives an overview of various aspects of climate change by integrating global climate models, downscaling approaches, and hydrological models. It also covers themes that help in understanding climate change in a holistic manner. The book includes worked-out examples, revision questions, exercise problems, and case studies, making it relevant for use as a textbook in graduate courses and professional development programs. The book will serve well researchers, students, as well as professionals working in the area of hydroclimatology.
Author :Manola Brunet India Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :9783540422396 Total Pages :688 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (223 download)
Book Synopsis Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change by : Manola Brunet India
Download or read book Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change written by Manola Brunet India and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-10-09 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the very first time, this book provides updated, integrated and organized, theoretical and methodological information on regional climate change and the associated environmental and socio-economic impacts on a regional scale. The most recent findings in the field of long-term climate change, which improve our understanding of the global climate puzzle, will be presented. Readers are introduced to state-of-the-art research in downscaling and GCMs, which involve the construction of reliable regional climate scenarios and the solution to key problems regarding the assessment of the impacts of climate change in the most important geographical areas of the world, from the Arctic to Antarctic regions, with special emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere.
Book Synopsis Climate Change Impacts on Basin Agro-ecosystems by : Tsugihiro Watanabe
Download or read book Climate Change Impacts on Basin Agro-ecosystems written by Tsugihiro Watanabe and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is based on the outcomes of a Turkish-Japanese bilateral project dealing with the impacts of climate change on basin agro-ecosystems. The book is unique in showing an up-to-date knowledge for the developing world. The chapters are related to: a) the development and improvement of a regional climate model for a more accurate prediction with higher resolution of future changes in regional climate, b) the structure of land and water management in agricultural production systems in arid areas, especially to quantitatively evaluate the relationships among cropping systems, hydrological cycle and water balance in farmland and its environments, c) the assessment of the impact of climate change and its adaptation on agricultural production systems, mainly on the aspect of land and water management, and d) the vulnerability of agricultural production systems from natural changes and the measures for enhancing sustainability of agriculture. This book elaborates on the methodologies for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural production and adaptationIn this book, the concepts and processes of an integrated approach are outlined, and its application in a case project is introducedThe approaches described in the chapters would be applicable in different situations and could be improved with experience and the introduction of advanced techniques
Book Synopsis Integrated Regional Models by : Peter Groffman
Download or read book Integrated Regional Models written by Peter Groffman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Integrated regional models are conceptual and mathematical models that describe the physical environment, biological interactions, human decision-making, and human impact on the environment. Efforts are now being made to integrate regional models from the physical, biological and social sciences in order to respond to diverse environmental problems. This volume explores the latest research developments on processes operating at a variety of scales, including regions, and how scientists can combine their efforts to develop models linking biological, physical, and human systems. Data requirements for successful integrated regional models are identified and discussed. Chapters also consider methodological questions, such as whether to integrate disciplinary approaches at the beginning or the end of the modelling process, and whether integrated regional models should focus on specific regions or specific problems. The information in this volume will enable the reader to view problems such as coastal zone management, atmospheric pollution, non-point source pollution, commodity production in forested areas, and urban expansion in a broad, conceptual context. Researchers and graduate students in ecology, biology, geography and geology will benefit from this innovative approach to contemporary environmental problems.
Book Synopsis Integrated Modelling and Assessment Systems by : Berhanu Fanta Alemaw
Download or read book Integrated Modelling and Assessment Systems written by Berhanu Fanta Alemaw and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2012 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you are interested in thinking beyond hydrological models, 'Integrated Modelling and Assessment Systems' or IMAS is the book for you. In this well-researched guide, the author unravels the contemporary and relevant research agenda in climate change and water resources issues in southern African region. This book explores the integrated assessment framework in details, describing: 1) the methods of detection of climate change and variability; 2) the link between El-Nino/ENSO and river flow variability; 3) the methods of construction of climate change scenarios and GCM simulations; 4) weather generation and dissagregation; 5) GIS-based hydrological model development; 6) impact assessment and evaluation; 7) best practices in climate change adaptation. The book also examines the climate change adaptation measures and capacity strategies considering the water-development nexus in Africa. The book finally illustrates how IMAS is integrated as a user-friendly suite of standalone programs in its three major sub-systems for variability assessment, hydrological modelling, and impact assessment and evaluation. Each subsystem is discussed in detail in systematically organized 12 chapters.
Book Synopsis Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment by : Jana Sillmann
Download or read book Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment written by Jana Sillmann and published by . This book was released on 2019-11 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate extremes often imply significant impacts on human and natural systems, and these extreme events are anticipated to be among the potentially most harmful consequences of a changing climate. However, while extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to address such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capabilities vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover, traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multi-model intercomparisons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated impacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment describes challenges, opportunities and methodologies for the analysis of the impacts of climate extremes across various sectors to support their impact and risk assessment. It thereby also facilitates cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary discussions and exchange among climate and impact scientists. The sectors covered include agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, transport, conflict, and more broadly covering the human-environment nexus. The book concludes with an outlook on the need for more transdisciplinary work and international collaboration between scientists and practitioners to address emergent risks and extreme events towards risk reduction and strengthened societal resilience. Provides an overview about past, present and future changes in climate and weather extremes and how to connect that knowledge to impact and risk assessment under global warming Presents different approaches to assess societal-relevant impacts and risk of climate and weather extremes, including compound events, and the complexity of risk cascades and the interconnectedness of societal risk Features applications across a diversity of sectors, including agriculture, health, ecosystem services and urban transport
Book Synopsis The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics by : Alain Haurie
Download or read book The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics written by Alain Haurie and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-11-10 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the different approaches used to model the dynamic interactions between climate and economies, and proposes new avenues of research. Its fourteen chapters deal with various aspects of the building of integrated assessment models, either by coupling economic growth and climate change modules, or using mathematical models of viability or dynamic game theory to represent the interactions between the world regions concerned.
Author :Division on Earth and Life Studies Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309259770 Total Pages :252 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (92 download)
Book Synopsis A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling by : Division on Earth and Life Studies
Download or read book A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling written by Division on Earth and Life Studies and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.
Book Synopsis Climate vulnerability assessment methodology by : Lotten Wiréhn
Download or read book Climate vulnerability assessment methodology written by Lotten Wiréhn and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2017-11-27 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Food security and climate change mitigation are crucial missions for the agricultural sector and for global work on sustainable development. Concurrently, agricultural production is directly dependent on climatic conditions, making climate change adaptation strategies essential for the agricultural sector. There is consequently a need for researchers, planners, and practitioners to better understand how, why, and to what extent agriculture is vulnerable to climate change. Such analyses involve challenges in relation to the complex social– ecological character of the agricultural system and to the multiple conceptualizations and approaches used in analysing vulnerability. The aim of this thesis is to identify how vulnerability assessments can be used to represent climate-related vulnerability in Nordic agriculture, in order to advance the methodological development of indicator-based and geographic visualization methods. The following research questions are addressed: (i) How can agricultural vulnerability to climate change and variability in the Nordic countries be characterized? (ii) How do selections, definitions, and emphases of indicators influence how vulnerability is assessed? (iii) How do estimates of vulnerability vary depending on the methods used in assessments? (iv) How can geographic visualization be applied in integrated vulnerability assessments? This thesis analyses and applies various vulnerability assessment approaches in the context of Nordic agriculture. This thesis demonstrates that various methods for composing vulnerability indices result in significantly different outcomes, despite using the same set of indicators. A conceptual framework for geographic visualization approaches to vulnerability assessments was developed for the purpose of creating transparent and interactive assessments regarding the indicating variables, methods and assumptions applied, i.e., opening up the ‘black box’ of composite indices. This framework served as the foundation for developing the AgroExplore geographic visualization tool. The tool enables the user to interactively select, categorize, and weight indicators as well as to explore the data and the spatial patterns of the indicators and indices. AgroExplore was used in focus group settings with experts in the Swedish agricultural sector. The visualization-supported dialogue results confirm the difficulty of selecting and constructing indicators, including different perceptions of what indicators actually indicate, the assumption of linear relationships between the indicators and vulnerability, and, consequently, that the direction of the relationship is predefined for each indicator. This thesis further points at the inherent complexity of agricultural challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change as such. It is specifically emphasized that agricultural adaptation policies and measures involve trade-offs between various environmental and socio–economic objectives, and that their implementation could furthermore entail unintended consequences, i.e., potential maladaptive outcomes. Nevertheless, it proved difficult to validate indicators due to, e.g. matters of scale and data availability. While heavy precipitation and other extreme weather events are perceived as the most relevant drivers of climate vulnerability by the agricultural experts participating in this study, statistical analyses of historical data identified few significant relationships between crop yield losses and heavy precipitation. In conclusion, this thesis contributes to the method development of composite indices and indicator-based vulnerability assessment. A key conclusion is that assessments are method dependent and that indicator selection is related to aspects such as the system’s spatial scale and location as well as to indicator thresholds and defined relationships with vulnerability, recognizing the contextual dependency of agricultural vulnerability. Consequently, given the practicality of indicator-based methods, I stress with this thesis that future vulnerability studies must take into account and be transparent about the principles and limitations of indicator-based assessment methods in order to ensure their usefulness, validity, and relevance for guiding adaptation strategies. För jordbrukssektorn och global hållbar utveckling i stort är matsäkerhet och mitigering av klimatförändringar viktiga angelägenheter. Samtidigt är jordbruksproduktionen ofta direkt beroende av klimatförhållanden, vilket gör klimatanpassningsstrategier mycket centrala för sektorn. Forskare, planerare och aktörer behöver förstå hur, varför och i vilken omfattning jordbruket är sårbart inför klimatförändringar. Sådana analyser inbegriper även de utmaningar som skapas genom jordbrukets komplexa socio-ekologiska karaktär, och de många utgångspunkter och tillvägagångssätt som används för att bedöma sårbarhet. Syftet med denna avhandling är att identifiera hur sårbarhetsbedömningar kan representera klimatrelaterad sårbarhet i nordiskt jordbruk, och i och med detta har avhandlingen som avsikt att utveckla metodologin för indikatorbaserade- och geografiska visualiseringsmetoder. Följande forskningsfrågor avhandlas: (i) Hur kan det nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatvariation och förändringar karaktäriseras? (ii) Hur påverkar urval, definitioner och betoningar av indikatorer bedömningar av sårbarhet? (iii) Hur varierar uppskattningar med bedömningsmetod? (iv) Hur kan geografisk visualisering användas i integrerade såbarhetsbedömningar? För att svara på dessa frågor analyseras och tillämpas olika tillvägagångssätt att bedöma sårbarhet inom nordiskt jordbruk. Avhandlingen visar att olika metoder för sårbarhetskompositindex resulterar i signifikanta skillnader mellan index, trots att samma indikatorer och data används. Ett konceptuellt ramverk för sårberhetsbedömningar där geografisk visualisering används, har utvecklats för att möjliggöra transparens avseende till exempel. vilka variabler, metoder och antaganden som används i kompositindex. Detta ramverk har följaktligen legat till grund för att utveckla ett geografiskt visualiseringsverktyg – AgroExplore. Verktyget möjliggör interaktivitet där användaren kan välja, kategorisera och vikta indikatorer, och dessutom utforska data och spatiala mönster av indikatorer och kompositindex. AgroExplore användes i denna avhandling för att stödja fokusgruppdialoger med experter inom den svenska jordbrukssektorn. Resultaten från dessa workshops bekräftar svårigheten med att välja och skapa indikatorer. Dessa svårigheter innefattar olika uppfattningar om vad indikatorer representerar, antagandet om linjära samband mellan indikatorerna och sårbarhet, och följaktligen att sambandens riktning är fördefinierade för respektive indikator. Utöver de konceptuella och metodologiska utmaningarna med sårbarhetsbedömningar visar avhandlingen på komplexa svårigheter och möjligheter för jordbruket vid klimatförändringar. Särskilt framhålls att klimatanpassningspolitik och åtgärder inom jordbruket medför konflikter och avvägningar mellan olika miljö- och socio-ekonomiska mål. Implementering av sådana anpassningsåtgärder kan vidare innebära oönskade konsekvenser, så kallad missanpassning. Trots ökad kunskap gällande nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatförändringar har det visats sig vara svårt att statistiskt validera indikatorer på grund av, exempelvis, skalproblematik och datatillgänglighet. Samtidigt som experterna ansåg att kraftig nederbörd och andra extrema väderhändelser är de mest relevanta drivkrafterna till klimatsårbarhet visar den statistiska analysen av historiska data på få signifikanta samband mellan förlorad skördeavkastning och kraftig nederbörd. Denna avhandling bidrar till metodutveckling av kompositindex och indikatorbaserade metoder för sårbarhetsbedömningar. En viktig slutsats är att bedömningar är metodberoende och att valet av indikatorer är relaterat till aspekter såsom systemets utbredning och den spatiala skalan av bedömningen. Även indikatorernas tröskelvärden och hur deras relation till sårbarhet är definierade anses vara viktiga faktorer som påverkar hur indikatorer representerar sårbarhet, vilket visar på sårbarhetsbedömningars kontextuella beroende. I och med de rådande bristerna hos indikatorbaserade metoder, som bland annat har identifierats i denna avhandling, vill jag framhålla vikten av att sårbarhetsbedömningar bör vara transparanta gällande den tillämpade metodens principer, antaganden och begräsningar. Detta för att säkerställa användbarhet, giltighet och relevans, om metoden och bedömningen ska ligga till grund för anpassningsstrategier hos såväl politiker, planerare och lantbrukare.
