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Demographic Trends And The Real Interest Rate
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Book Synopsis Demographics and Real Interest Rates by : Carlos Carvalho
Download or read book Demographics and Real Interest Rates written by Carlos Carvalho and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three channels. An increase in longevity -- or expectations thereof -- puts downward pressure on the real interest rate, as agents build up their savings in anticipation of a longer retirement period. A reduction in the population growth rate has two counteracting effects. On the one hand, capital per-worker rises, thus inducing lower real interest rates through a reduction in the marginal product of capital. On the other hand, the decline in population growth eventually leads to a higher dependency ratio (the fraction of retirees to workers). Because retirees save less than workers, this compositional effect lowers the aggregate savings rate and pushes real rates up. We calibrate a tractable life-cycle model to capture salient features of the demographic transition in developed economies, and find that its overall effect is a reduction of the equilibrium interest rate by at least one and a half percentage points between 1990 and 2014. Demographic trends have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in light of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Other policies can offset the negative effects of the demographic transition on real rates with different degrees of success.
Book Synopsis The Great Demographic Reversal by : Charles Goodhart
Download or read book The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-08 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Book Synopsis Demographics and Real Interest Rates by : Carlos de Carvalho
Download or read book Demographics and Real Interest Rates written by Carlos de Carvalho and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Demographic Trends and the Real Interest Rate by : Noëmie Lisack
Download or read book Demographic Trends and the Real Interest Rate written by Noëmie Lisack and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify the impact of past and future global demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping generations model. Falling birth and death rates can explain a large part of the fall in world real interest rates and the rise in house prices and household debt since the 1980s. These trends will persist as the share of the population in the high-wealth 50 age bracket continues to rise. As the United States ages relatively slowly, its net foreign liability position will grow. The availability of housing and debt as alternative stores of value attenuates these trends. The increasing monopolisation of the economy has ambiguous effects.
Book Synopsis Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia by : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Download or read book Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-27 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
Book Synopsis Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan by : Mr.Fei Han
Download or read book Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Book Synopsis Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy by : Mr.Jong-Won Yoon
Download or read book Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy written by Mr.Jong-Won Yoon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-11-24 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings—particularly regarding inflation—we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Real Interest Rates and Population Growth Across Generations by : Lucas Marc Fuhrer
Download or read book Real Interest Rates and Population Growth Across Generations written by Lucas Marc Fuhrer and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically examines the effect of population growth on real interest rates. Although this effect is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous. Demographic interest rate theories are typically based on long-term relationships across generations. Accordingly, key population trends appear often only across decades, if not centuries, worth of data. To capture these trends, we distinguish between population growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. Within a panel covering 12 countries and the years since 1820, we find robust evidence that the birth surplus significantly affects the real interest rate.
Book Synopsis Interest Rates and Population by : Andrew Leung
Download or read book Interest Rates and Population written by Andrew Leung and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent papers consider the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. In general the relationship is not monotonic; there is a tension between two opposing effects - a higher growth rate diluting capital that has already been accumulated, and the ability of a growing population to generate its own wealth. The strengths of these effects depends on the population structure and the time horizon for each generation to accumulate wealth.This type of analysis has been conducted within an Overlapping Generations framework. However an explicit assumption is needed to allow a comparative static analysis of levels of population growth and capital accumulation. That assumption is effectively the requirement for each generation to be self supporting in terms of its consumption and contribution to production.We show that this assumption can be justified in theory by a form of economic efficiency with respect to population changes, referred to as demographic efficiency. This analysis is also conducted within the Overlapping Generations model. Thus we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for such efficiency in terms of each generation's lifetime consumption and contribution to production.The main result of this paper is that there must be an intimate relationship, under general conditions, between long term real interest rates and long term demographic trends.
Book Synopsis Declining Trends in the Real Interest Rate and Inflation by : Shigeru Fujita
Download or read book Declining Trends in the Real Interest Rate and Inflation written by Shigeru Fujita and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Foundations of International Macroeconomics by : Maurice Obstfeld
Download or read book Foundations of International Macroeconomics written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996-09-12 with total page 830 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foundations of International Macroeconomics is an innovative text that offers the first integrative modern treatment of the core issues in open economy macroeconomics and finance. With its clear and accessible style, it is suitable for first-year graduate macroeconomics courses as well as graduate courses in international macroeconomics and finance. Each chapter incorporates an extensive and eclectic array of empirical evidence. For the beginning student, these examples provide motivation and aid in understanding the practical value of the economic models developed. For advanced researchers, they highlight key insights and conundrums in the field. Topic coverage includes intertemporal consumption and investment theory, government spending and budget deficits, finance theory and asset pricing, the implications of (and problems inherent in) international capital market integration, growth, inflation and seignorage, policy credibility, real and nominal exchange rate determination, and many interesting special topics such as speculative attacks, target exchange rate zones, and parallels between immigration and capital mobility. Most main results are derived both for the small country and world economy cases. The first seven chapters cover models of the real economy, while the final three chapters incorporate the economy's monetary side, including an innovative approach to bridging the usual chasm between real and monetary models.
Book Synopsis Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle by : Callum Jones
Download or read book Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle written by Callum Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-23 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession.
Book Synopsis The Demographic Dividend by : David Bloom
Download or read book The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-02-13 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
Book Synopsis The Effects of Demographic Changes on the Real Interest Rate in Japan by : Daisuke Ikeda
Download or read book The Effects of Demographic Changes on the Real Interest Rate in Japan written by Daisuke Ikeda and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Effects of Long-Run Demographic Changes in a Multi-Country Model by : Mr.Paul R. Masson
Download or read book Effects of Long-Run Demographic Changes in a Multi-Country Model written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The macroeconomic effects of population aging are explored using data for the G-7 countries and Australia. The link between changes in birth and mortality rates on the one hand, and dependency ratios on the other, is first discussed, then empirical evidence on the effects of dependency ratios on net foreign asset positions and on consumption is presented. Simulations of changes in dependency ratios are then reported, using demographic projections to the year 2025. Finally, the plausibility of the implied changes in net foreign asset positions is discussed.
Book Synopsis Global Demographic Trends Shape Policy Environment by : Mark A. Wynne
Download or read book Global Demographic Trends Shape Policy Environment written by Mark A. Wynne and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographics are key determinants of what is economically feasible at both the global and national levels. Demographics also have important implications for monetary policy. Slower population and labor force growth in the coming decades will have a depressing effect on real interest rates.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Effects of Prelected Population Aging in Industrial Countries by : Mr.Paul R. Masson
Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Prelected Population Aging in Industrial Countries written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-01-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effects of population aging are examined with the aid of a theoretical model and simulations of MULTIMOD. An older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower the capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging. Simulations of projected demographic changes suggest that by 2025, real interest rates would be increased by several percentage points and net foreign assets increased in the United States, and decreased in Japan and Germany, as a result.
