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Delphi Critique Expert Opinion Forecasting And Group Process
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Book Synopsis Delphi Critique; Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process by : Harold Sackman
Download or read book Delphi Critique; Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process written by Harold Sackman and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents a critical analysis of the Delphi technique. The analysis is in four parts. First, the scope of the inquiry is defined, and issues pertinent to an evaluation of Delphi are raised. Second, conventional Delphi is evaluated against established professional standards for opinion questionnaires, and against associated scientific standards for experimentation with human subjects. Third, Delphi is evaluated with respect to its assumptions, principles, and methodology. Fourth, conclusions of the analysis are brought together and recommendations are made for the future use of Delphi.
Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Book Synopsis A Literature Review on the Use of Expert opinion in Prbabilistric Risk Analysis by :
Download or read book A Literature Review on the Use of Expert opinion in Prbabilistric Risk Analysis written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research by : Sinead Keeney
Download or read book The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research written by Sinead Keeney and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-25 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research is a practical guide to using the Delphi methodology for students and researchers in nursing and health. It adopts a logical step-by-step approach, introducing the researcher to the Delphi, outlining its development, analysing key characteristics and parameters for its successful use and exploring its applications in nursing and health. The book addresses issues of methodology, design, framing the research question, sampling, instrumentation, methodological rigour, reliability and validity, and methods of data analysis. The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research enables the reader to be aware of the limitations of the technique and possible solutions, to design a Delphi questionnaire for each of the different rounds of a study, to consider different approaches to the technique in relation to a study, to analyse the data from each round of a Delphi study, and to understand the importance of feedback between rounds. Key Features A practical guide to facilitate use of the Delphi technique Provides the reader with the necessary information to participate in and conduct Delphi studies Examines different types of Delphi, including the e-Delphi, and modifications made to the technique Includes examples of real empirical investigations, brief case scenarios and key learning points for each chapter Explores the role of the Delphi researcher Explores ethical issues and issues of anonymity, use of experts and controlled feedback
Book Synopsis Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by : Anca M. Hanea
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Book Synopsis Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks by : Bilal M. Ayyub
Download or read book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2001-06-27 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, w
Book Synopsis Techniques and Procedures for Analysis and Evaluation by :
Download or read book Techniques and Procedures for Analysis and Evaluation written by and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Delphi Methods In The Social And Health Sciences by : Marlen Niederberger
Download or read book Delphi Methods In The Social And Health Sciences written by Marlen Niederberger and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-31 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Delphi methods enable the systematic collection of expert judgments. They have proven to be particularly useful when a certain level of expertise and judgment is required to answer a research question. There are different variants of Delphi methods, such as the group Delphi or the real-time Delphi. The book presents current methodological developments and examples of application in the social and health sciences. The contents● Delphi methods: Concepts and variants - Epistemological discussion - Practical challenges - Delphi in the social and health sciences - Real-time Delphi - Delphi markets.● Application examples for Delphi methods - Qualification requirements, recommendations for action for further development and strategy development in the health care industry - Personnel retention and recruitment in occupational nursing - Group Delphi for obesity prevention- Safety and health competence at work - Delphi methods in health promotion The editorsProf. Dr. Marlen Niederberger is professor for research methods in health promotion and prevention at the PH Schwäbisch Gmünd.Prof. Dr. Ortwin Renn is Scientific Director at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (IASS). This book is a translation of the original German 1st edition Delphi-Verfahren in den Sozial- und Gesundheitswissenschaften by Marlen Niederberger and Ortwin Renn, published by Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature in 2019. The translation was done with the help of artificial intelligence (machine translation by the service DeepL.com). A subsequent human revision was done primarily in terms of content, so that the book will read stylistically differently from a conventional translation. Springer Nature works continuously to further the development of tools for the production of books and on the related technologies to support the authors.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences by : Bilal M. Ayyub
Download or read book Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2006-05-25 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Engineers and scientists often need to solve complex problems with incomplete information resources, necessitating a proper treatment of uncertainty and a reliance on expert opinions. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences prepares current and future analysts and practitioners to understand the fundamentals of knowledge a
Book Synopsis The Disabled State by : Deborah A. Stone
Download or read book The Disabled State written by Deborah A. Stone and published by Temple University Press. This book was released on 1986 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Research in Landscape Architecture by : Adri van den Brink
Download or read book Research in Landscape Architecture written by Adri van den Brink and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defining a research question, describing why it needs to be answered and explaining how methods are selected and applied are challenging tasks for anyone embarking on academic research within the field of landscape architecture. Whether you are an early career researcher or a senior academic, it is essential to draw meaningful conclusions and robust answers to research questions. Research in Landscape Architecture provides guidance on the rationales needed for selecting methods and offers direction to help to frame and design academic research within the discipline. Over the last couple of decades the traditional orientation in landscape architecture as a field of professional practice has gradually been complemented by a growing focus on research. This book will help you to develop the connections between research, teaching and practice, to help you to build a common framework of theory and research methods. Bringing together contributions from landscape architects across the world, this book covers a broad range of research methodologies and examples to help you conduct research successfully. Also included is a study in which the editors discuss the most important priorities for the research within the discipline over the coming years. This book will provide a definitive path to developing research within landscape architecture.
Book Synopsis Valuing Health In Practice by : Douglas McCulloch
Download or read book Valuing Health In Practice written by Douglas McCulloch and published by AuthorHouse. This book was released on 2024-08-09 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All of us are faced with the problem of scarcity in the health sector. Taking part in discussion requires an understanding of the main arguments used to justify new procedures, and to discard those existing ones which are not as effective. It is also important to understand the limitations of medical science, particularly the problems posed by the randomised controlled trial, as well as the potential of (for example) lattice analysis in situations where quality of life simply cannot be measured meaningfully
Book Synopsis Tourism Research Methods by : Brent W. Ritchie
Download or read book Tourism Research Methods written by Brent W. Ritchie and published by CABI. This book was released on 2005 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within the tourism industry there is a growing consensus on the need for research to investigate the economic, social and environmental impacts of tourism. However, existing research methods texts are based solely on either the business approach or the social science approach to tourism. They often fail to provide real world examples of how to plan, implement or analyse tourism related research. This book aims to address this divide by integrating theory with practice through the inclusion of specific tourism research case studies alongside research theory. It considers a wide range of research issues, approaches and techniques with contributions from both experienced and new researchers.
Book Synopsis Planning in School Administration by : Ward Sybouts
Download or read book Planning in School Administration written by Ward Sybouts and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 1992-03-30 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because schools must operate in a changing environment, educators must manage change whether they wish to or not. Administrators must plan accordingly, and the best plans spring from a solid theoretical base. This comprehensive handbook provides that base. Sybouts draws on systems theory to develop effective approaches to strategic and operational planning in education. The text evolved from case studies of successful planning in local school districts and from a national survey of education faculty. Sybouts emphasizes that the human dimension of educational planning is paramount, and that leadership and vision are essential to the effective management of change. The volume begins with a rationale for improved planning in educational administration. Sybouts then lucidly explains the fundamentals of systems theory and provides a theoretical frame for the rest of the book. He turns his attention to strategic and operational planning and explores the relationship between the two. He then discusses key planning techniques, including trend analysis, mathematical projections, and flow charts. The book closes with practical guidelines on how to manage change and implement planning in school systems. This handbook is a valuable reference for administrative planners and education professionals and is a ready source of both theoretical and practical information.
Book Synopsis Vocational Instructional Program Advisory Committee Resource Guide by :
Download or read book Vocational Instructional Program Advisory Committee Resource Guide written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis by : M. Granger Morgan
Download or read book Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis written by M. Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practitioners of policy analysis will better understand the tools of their trade, and the broader contexts in which analysis contributes.
Book Synopsis Group Planning and Problem-solving Methods in Engineering Management by : Shirley A. Olsen
Download or read book Group Planning and Problem-solving Methods in Engineering Management written by Shirley A. Olsen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1982 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
