Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 146849256X
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (684 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Claude Greengard

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Claude Greengard and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the ideal world, major decisions would be made based on complete and reliable information available to the decision maker. We live in a world of uncertainties, and decisions must be made from information which may be incomplete and may contain uncertainty. The key mathematical question addressed in this volume is "how to make decision in the presence of quantifiable uncertainty." The volume contains articles on model problems of decision making process in the energy and power industry when the available information is noisy and/or incomplete. The major tools used in studying these problems are mathematical modeling and optimization techniques; especially stochastic optimization. These articles are meant to provide an insight into this rapidly developing field, which lies in the intersection of applied statistics, probability, operations research, and economic theory. It is hoped that the present volume will provide entry to newcomers into the field, and stimulation for further research.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780262331708
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (317 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by :

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Decisions Under Uncertainty

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521782777
Total Pages : 696 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (827 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Ian Jordaan

Download or read book Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Ian Jordaan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-04-07 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Publisher Description

Research Perspectives on Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780444875747
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Research Perspectives on Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Research Conference on Subjective Probability

Download or read book Research Perspectives on Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Research Conference on Subjective Probability and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF STREAMFLOW FORECASTS

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 445 pages
Book Rating : 4.L/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF STREAMFLOW FORECASTS by :

Download or read book DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF STREAMFLOW FORECASTS written by and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441974210
Total Pages : 549 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets by : Antonio J. Conejo

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets written by Antonio J. Conejo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.

Uncertainty, Information Management, and Disclosure Decisions

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135890552
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (358 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty, Information Management, and Disclosure Decisions by : Tamara Afifi

Download or read book Uncertainty, Information Management, and Disclosure Decisions written by Tamara Afifi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-12-22 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume integrates scholarly work on disclosure and uncertainty with the most up-to-date, cutting edge research, theories, and applications. Uncertainty is an ever-present part of human relationships, and the ways in which people reduce and/or manage uncertainty involves regulating their communication with others through revealing and concealing information. This collection is devoted to collating knowledge in these areas, advancing theory and presenting work that is socially meaningful. This work includes contributions from renowned scholars in interpersonal uncertainty and information regulation, focusing on processes that bridge boundaries within and across disciplines, while maintaining emphasis on interpersonal contexts. Disciplines represented here include interpersonal, family, and health communication, as well as relational and social psychology. Key features of the volume include: comprehensive coverage integrating the latest research on disclosure, information seeking, and uncertainty a highly theoretical content, socially meaningful in nature (applied to real-world contexts) an interdisciplinary approach that crosses sub-fields within communication. This volume is a unique and timely resource for advanced study in interpersonal, health, or family communication. With its emphasis on theory, the book is an excellent resource for graduate courses addressing theory and/or theory construction, and it will also appeal to scholars interested in applied research.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031260864
Total Pages : 203 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (312 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education by : Laxman Bokati

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education written by Laxman Bokati and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-03-21 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes new techniques for making decisions in situations with uncertainty and new applications of decision-making techniques. The main emphasis is on situations when it is difficult to decrease uncertainty. For example, it is very difficult to accurately predict human economic behavior, so in economics, it is very important to take this uncertainty into account when making decisions. Other areas where it is difficult to decrease uncertainty are geosciences and teaching. The book analyzes the general problem of decision making and shows how its results can be applied to economics, geosciences, and teaching. Since all these applications involve computing, the book also shows how these results can be applied to computing, including deep learning and quantum computing. The book is recommended to researchers, practitioners, and students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertainty—and who want to work on remaining challenges.

Completing the Forecast

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Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Research Perspectives on Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (497 download)

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Book Synopsis Research Perspectives on Decision Making Under Uncertainty by :

Download or read book Research Perspectives on Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Info-Gap Decision Theory

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080465706
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Info-Gap Decision Theory by : Yakov Ben-Haim

Download or read book Info-Gap Decision Theory written by Yakov Ben-Haim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-10-11 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. - New theory developed systematically - Many examples from diverse disciplines - Realistic representation of severe uncertainty - Multi-faceted approach to risk - Quantitative model-based decision theory

Decisions Under Uncertainty, with Research Applications

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Decisions Under Uncertainty, with Research Applications by : Albert N. Halter

Download or read book Decisions Under Uncertainty, with Research Applications written by Albert N. Halter and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Textbook on decision making theory under uncertainty, with emphasis on research applications - covers probability, utility measurement, statistical analysis (regression analysis), etc., and includes applications in agriculture, geology, forest establishment and climatology.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Publisher : Thomson South-Western
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : David E. Bell

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031164156
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (311 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints by : Martine Ceberio

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints written by Martine Ceberio and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-01-03 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows, on numerous examples, how to make decisions in realistic situations when we have both uncertainty and constraints. In most these situations, the book's emphasis is on the why-question, i.e., on a theoretical explanation for empirical formulas and techniques. Such explanations are important: they help understand why these techniques work well in some cases and not so well in others, and thus, help practitioners decide whether a technique is appropriate for a given situation. Example of applications described in the book ranges from science (biosciences, geosciences, and physics) to electrical and civil engineering, education, psychology and decision making, and religion—and, of course, include computer science, AI (in particular, eXplainable AI), and machine learning. The book can be recommended to researchers and students in these application areas. Many of the examples use general techniques that can be used in other application areas as well, so it is also useful for practitioners and researchers in other areas who are looking for possible theoretical explanations of empirical formulas and techniques.

Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives

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Author :
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 288963034X
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (896 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives by : David R. Mandel

Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives written by David R. Mandel and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2019-09-26 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: