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Country Fund Discounts And The Mexican Crisis Of December 1994
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Book Synopsis Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of December 1994 by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of December 1994 written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the quot;front-runnersquot; in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to leave the country. This paper investigates whether data from three Mexican country funds provide evidence that supports the quot;divergent expectationsquot; hypothesis. We find that, right before the devaluation, Mexican country fund Net Asset Values (driven mainly by Mexican investors) dropped faster than their prices (driven mainly by foreign investors). Moreover, we find that Mexican NAVs tend to Granger-cause the country fund prices. This suggests that causality, in some sense, flows from the Mexico City investor community to the Wall Street investor community.
Book Synopsis Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994 by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994 written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the front-runners in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to leave the country. This paper uses data from three Mexican country funds to investigate the hypothesis of divergent expectations. We find that, right before the devaluation, Mexican fund Net Asset Values (mainly driven by Mexican investors) dropped faster than Mexican country fund prices (mainly driven by foreign investors). Moreover, we find that Mexican NAVs tend to Granger-cause the country fund prices. This suggests that causality, in some sense, flows from the Mexico City investor community to the Wall Street investor community. More generally, the paper proposes an asymmetric information approach that differs from the existing explanations of country fund discounts.
Book Synopsis Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of December 1994 by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of December 1994 written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Recent Turmoil in Emerging Markets and the Behavior of Country-Fund Discounts by : Mr.Charles Frederick Kramer
Download or read book Recent Turmoil in Emerging Markets and the Behavior of Country-Fund Discounts written by Mr.Charles Frederick Kramer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-07-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that recent movements in closed-end emerging markets funds present a strong challenge to the leading explanations of the behavior of closed-end country fund prices. In particular, closed-end funds dedicated to Mexico and other Latin American stock markets developed large premia after the December 1994 devaluation of the Mexican peso and the subsequent financial crisis. The so-called “investor sentiment hypothesis” could explain these events only by suggesting that investors became very optimistic about emerging markets stocks, and especially Mexican stocks; this possibility seems unlikely given the facts surrounding the devaluation. We argue instead that a sensible explanation for recent dynamics of closed-end country funds is that investors in these funds are loss-averse, implying that they do not want to realize paper losses on their closed-end fund shares. This works to put a drag on the downward movement in closed-end fund prices.
Book Synopsis Crisis Management in Argentina During the 1994-95 Mexican Crisis by : Eduardo J. J. Ganapolsky
Download or read book Crisis Management in Argentina During the 1994-95 Mexican Crisis written by Eduardo J. J. Ganapolsky and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Mexican crisis of 1994-95 had strong spillover effects on Argentina. The Argentine government successfully announced a series of policies to mitigate the contagion effects. This paper studies how capital markets reacted to each policy announcement and news. Capital markets welcomed announcements that demonstrated a firm commitment to the currency board. The agreement with the IMF, the dollarization of reserve deposits in the central bank, and changes in reserve requirements had a strong positive impact on market returns. After a period of higher volatility, the appointment of a new finance minister significantly decreased the variance of stock and bond returns, while lower reserve requirements increased the volatility of interest rates.
Book Synopsis Recent Turmoil in Emerging Markets and the Behavior of Country-Fund Discounts by : Charles Kramer
Download or read book Recent Turmoil in Emerging Markets and the Behavior of Country-Fund Discounts written by Charles Kramer and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that recent movements in closed-end emerging markets funds present a strong challenge to the leading explanations of the behavior of closed-end country fund prices. In particular, closed-end funds dedicated to Mexico and other Latin American stock markets developed large premia after the December 1994 devaluation of the Mexican peso and the subsequent financial crisis. The so-called quot;investor sentiment hypothesisquot; could explain these events only by suggesting that investors became very optimistic about emerging markets stocks, and especially Mexican stocks; this possibility seems unlikely given the facts surrounding the devaluation. We argue instead that a sensible explanation for recent dynamics of closed-end country funds is that investors in these funds are loss-averse, implying that they do not want to realize paper losses on their closed-end fund shares. This works to put a drag on the downward movement in closed-end fund prices.
Book Synopsis The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes by : George S. Tavlas
Download or read book The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes written by George S. Tavlas and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ical) and to self-fulfilling currency crisis, respectively. Research stressing the former approach was pioneered by Krugman (1979) and Flood and Garber (1984). According to this line of research, the failure of governments to adopt domestic monetary and fiscal policies consistent with their stated exchange rate targets leads to a gradual diminution of reserves and eventually a stock adjustment that depletes reserves suddenly in one attack (Sachs, Tornell, and Velasco, 1996, page 47). The result is either a devaluation of the exchange rate or a switch to floating. Subsequent work of this genre has specified a number of other channels, in addition to that involving inconsistent and unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies, that can precipitate an attack: 1. Inconsistency between external and internal objectives. The stances of monetary and fiscal policies may be consistent with the authorities' exchange rate target, but domestic economic indicators (such as the unemployment rate) may be inconsistent with internal balance, resulting in pressures on the authorities to relax macroeconomic policies. Private agents, aware of this inconsistency, perceive an opportunity for profits from a currency devaluation and precipitate an attack. 2. Contagion effects. Prior to an attack on another currency (say that of country B), the market may view a country's (say, country A's) exchange rate as consistent with economic fundamentals and, thus, sustainable.
Book Synopsis Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994 by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994 written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the front-runners in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to leave the country. This paper uses data from three Mexican country funds to investigate the hypothesis of divergent expectations. We find that, right before the devaluation, Mexican fund Net Asset Values (mainly driven by Mexican investors) dropped faster than Mexican country fund prices (mainly driven by foreign investors). Moreover, we find that Mexican NAVs tend to Granger-cause the country fund prices. This suggests that causality, in some sense, flows from the Mexico City investor community to the Wall Street investor community. More generally, the paper proposes an asymmetric information approach that differs from the existing explanations of country fund discounts.
Book Synopsis Country Funds and Asymmetric Information by :
Download or read book Country Funds and Asymmetric Information written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Mexican Peso Crisis by : Mr.Paul R. Masson
Download or read book The Mexican Peso Crisis written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-01-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines credibility and reputational factors in explaining the December 1994 crisis of the Mexican peso. After reviewing events leading to the crisis, a model emphasizing the inflation-competitiveness trade-off is presented to explain the formation of devaluation expectations. Estimation results indicate that investors appear to have seriously underestimated the risk of devaluation, despite early warning signals. The collapse of confidence that followed the December 20 devaluation may have been the result of a shift in the perceived commitment of the authorities to exchange rate stability.
Download or read book Ten Crises written by Peter Montiel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises are dramatic events. When they emerge, they tend to dominate the attention of the press and become the focus of policymakers. In one form or another, they have affected the lives of millions of people throughout the world. As references to 16th century Dutch tulips, 18th South Seas merchant ventures, or 1920s Florida real estate make clear, they have been around for a long time. At their worst, such as in the cases of the Great Depression or the current Great Recession, their effects have been felt worldwide, with the number of people affected counted into the billions. They have at times changed the course of history. This book analyses ten of the most important financial crises of the last thirty years. The specific crises covered in the book are the 1982 Chilean crisis, the 1992 ERM crisis, the 1994 Mexican crisis, the 1997 Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis, the 1999 Brazilian crisis, the 1999 Ecuadorian crisis, the 2000 Turkish crisis, the 2002 Argentine crisis, and the 2008 crisis in Iceland. The set includes the most important emerging-market crises of the last three decades as well as two particularly informative advanced-country crises, the ERM crisis of 1992 and the Icelandic crisis of 2008. A separate chapter is devoted to each crisis, and a brief concluding chapter sums up some of the key lessons that I believe that we can draw from these events.
Book Synopsis Country and Currency Risk Premia in an Emerging Market by : Ian Domowitz
Download or read book Country and Currency Risk Premia in an Emerging Market written by Ian Domowitz and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The magnitude and determinants of credit and currency risks are topics of considerable importance. This paper uses data on peso- and dollar-denominated debt issued by the Mexican government to identify currency and country risk premia. We show that shoc ks in equity and debt market returns translate into long-term increases in the premium demanded by investors with respect to currency and country factors. Country and currency premia help explain equity returns and closed-end fund discounts. Additional evidence is provided showing that investors did not anticipate the magnitude or timing of the currency devaluation of December 1994 and the subsequent financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Crises, Contagion, and the Closed by : Mr.Angel J. Ubide
Download or read book Crises, Contagion, and the Closed written by Mr.Angel J. Ubide and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the behavior of closed-end country fund discounts, including evidence from the Mexican and East Asian crises. We find that the ratio of fund prices to their fundamental value increases dramatically during a crisis, an anomaly that we denote the “closed-end country fund puzzle.” Our results show that the puzzle relates directly to the fact that international investors are less (more) sensitive to changes in local (global) market conditions than domestic investors. This asymmetry implies that foreign participation in local markets can both help dampen a crisis in the originating country, and amplify the contagion to noncrisis countries.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Repatriation During Crises by : Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Repatriation During Crises written by Mr. Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-06 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a new, comprehensive data set on the sovereign debt investor base to document three novel empirical facts: (i) sovereign debt is repatriated - that is, shifted from external private to domestic investors - prior to sovereign defaults; (ii) not all crises are equal: evidence for repatriation during banking and currency crises is more limited; and (iii) the nature of defaults matters: external investors do not leave during preemptive debt restructurings. We further show that repatriation appears to be prevalent when defaults happen in large markets with low capital controls. The data set we use is uniquely suited to analyzing investor base dynamics during rare crises due to its large cross-section and time series, covering 180 countries from 1989 to 2020.
Book Synopsis Capital Account Liberalization by : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Download or read book Capital Account Liberalization written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-30 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital account liberalization - orderly, properly sequence, and befitting the individual circumstances of countries- is an inevitable step for all countries wishing to realize the benefits of the globalized economy. This paper reviews the theories behind capital account liberalization and examines the dangers associated with free capital flows. The authors conclude that the dangers can be limited through a combination of sound macroeconomic and prudential policies.
Book Synopsis Capital Flows and Crises by : Barry J. Eichengreen
Download or read book Capital Flows and Crises written by Barry J. Eichengreen and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An analysis of the connections between capital flows and financial crises as well as between capital flows and economic growth.
Book Synopsis Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 783 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
