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Common Determinants Of Currency Crises
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Book Synopsis The Determinants of Currency Crises by : B. Rother
Download or read book The Determinants of Currency Crises written by B. Rother and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-04-17 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the role of political factors in the occurrence of currency crises, using an eclectic approach that blends case studies, a rigorous theoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.
Book Synopsis Common Determinants of Currency Crises by : Mirko Licchetta
Download or read book Common Determinants of Currency Crises written by Mirko Licchetta and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Determinants of Currency Crises by : Lisa Short
Download or read book The Determinants of Currency Crises written by Lisa Short and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature by : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Download or read book Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.
Download or read book Currency Crises written by Jahangir Aziz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers crises which culminated in large currency depreciation as well as those in which there was a substantial loss of foreign reserves. The analysis involves comparing the monthly or annual pattern of movement of the various macroeconomic and financial variables around the time of crisis to their behavior during tranquil periods. The robustness of the results is tested by subdividing the sample into different types of currency crises and carrying out a similar analysis for each.
Book Synopsis Empirical Investigations Into the Determinants of Currency Crises by : Anastasios G. Anastasatos
Download or read book Empirical Investigations Into the Determinants of Currency Crises written by Anastasios G. Anastasatos and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Book Synopsis Explaining Currency Crises by : Gerardo Esquivel
Download or read book Explaining Currency Crises written by Gerardo Esquivel and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis About the Existence of Common Internal Causes of Recent Latin American Currency Crises by : Christian Henn
Download or read book About the Existence of Common Internal Causes of Recent Latin American Currency Crises written by Christian Henn and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the currency crises in Asia seem to have been one-of events, Latin America experiences recurring currency crisis. In this paper, we analyse whether common internal factors existed, that contributed to the build-up of the currency crisis. For our sample, we chose the three most recent Latin American currency crisis in Mexico 1994/95, Brazil 1998/99 and Argentina 2001/02. Each one of these three countries adopted a stabilization program with an exchange rate anchor as the central element among other liberal reforms in order to combat inflation. In a quantitative analysis for these stabilization periods, we work us step-by-step along the causalities chains that were started by the reforms. Our main findings include that to a considerable extent, the stabilization programs caused similar reactions in the three economies. Among these were a substantially overvalued currency, which implied considerable current account deficits and an elevation of the debt stock. In Brazil, increasing debt was less driven by the overvalued currency and more by fiscal indiscipline, while Mexican agents in 1994 faced a debt roll-over problem. Argentina suffered from its rigidities in the real sector, particularly the labor market, that did not allow adjustment, when imbalances increasingly built up over time. We conclude that the risk for crisis can be considerably dampened by prudent domestic policy making. However, the solidity of internal determinants alone will not be able to rule out turbulence.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Book Synopsis Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises by : Mark Kruger
Download or read book Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises written by Mark Kruger and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the determinants of currency crises in Latin America, Asia, and Africa. It asks two basic questions: are currency crises linked to economic fundamentals, and is there evidence of a contagion effect after controlling for the potential effects of economic fundamentals. The examination uses pooled annual data for 19 developing countries spanning the period 1977-93. Economic variables considered include the growth rate of domestic credit, real exchange rate misalignment, the relation of the M2 monetary aggregate to international reserves, and fiscal or current account deficits.
Book Synopsis Essays on Currency Crises by : Mohammad Karimi Zarkani
Download or read book Essays on Currency Crises written by Mohammad Karimi Zarkani and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of the international economy from the invention of paper money. They are not confined to particular economies or specific region. They take place in developed, emerging, and developing countries and are spread all over the globe. Countries that experience currency crises face economic losses that can be huge and disruptive. However, the exacted toll is not only financial and economic, but also human, social, and political. It is clear that the currency crisis is a real threat to financial stability and economic prosperity. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of currency crises for twenty OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. It systematically examines the role of economic fundamentals and contagion in the origins of currency crises and empirically attempts to identify the channels through which the crises are being transmitted. It also examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. The first chapter identifies the episodes of currency crisis in our data set. Determining true crisis periods is a vital step in the empirical studies and has direct impact on the reliability of their estimations and the relevant policy implications. We define a period as a crisis episode when the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, which consists of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates, exceeds a threshold. In order to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, we apply extreme value theory, which is a more objective approach compared to other methods. In this chapter, we also select the reference country, which a country's currency pressure index should be built around, in a more systematic way rather than by arbitrary choice or descriptive reasoning. The second chapter studies the probability of a currency exiting a tranquil state into a crisis state. There is an extensive literature on currency crises that empirically evaluate the roots and causes of the crises. Despite the interesting results of the current empirical literature, only very few of them account for the influence of time on the probability of crises. We use duration models that rigorously incorporate the time factor into the likelihood functions and allow us to investigate how the amount of time that a currency has already spent in the tranquil state affects the stability of a currency. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors (which mostly work through trade channels), unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy increases the hazard of a crisis. We make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. The third chapter examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. As in our previous paper, duration analysis is our methodology to study the probability of a currency crisis occurrence under different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility policies. The third chapter finds that there is a significant link between the choice of exchange rate regime and the incidence of currency crises in our sample. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the choice of the de facto exchange rate system. Moreover, in our sample, capital control policies appear to be helpful in preventing low duration currency crises. The results are robust to a wide variety of sample and models checks.
Download or read book Currency Crises written by Jahangir Aziz and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers crises which culminated in large currency depreciation as well as those in which there was a substantial loss of foreign reserves. The analysis involves comparing the monthly or annual pattern of movement of the various macroeconomic and financial variables around the time of crisis to their behavior during tranquil periods. The robustness of the results is tested by subdividing the sample into different types of currency crises and carrying out a similar analysis for each.
Book Synopsis Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants by : Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti
Download or read book Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Currency and Banking Crises by : Heru Rahadyan
Download or read book Currency and Banking Crises written by Heru Rahadyan and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency and banking crises have occurred periodically. Along with the growing integration and liberalisation of financial markets, there is an increasing number of currency and banking crises. This chapter shows that crises can occur in any good or bad economic conditions as they can be triggered by rational actions, panics or contagion effects. As the crises stem from various aspects, thus, they should be mitigated with different policies. Furthermore, this chapter discusses the exchange market pressure index to identify a currency crisis, the money market pressure index to identify a banking crisis and the financial market pressure index to identify the overall financial crises. Once the crises are identified, economists can start to investigate the determinants of the crises. While the probit/logit models are arguably the most popular approaches to investigating the determinants of crises, they fail to provide useful forecasts. On the other hand, while the signalling approach is considered the most successful method to forecast crises, the results are difficult to be interpreted. The empirical studies suggest that the currency and banking crises are typically preceded by a real appreciation and a lending boom, the signs of a boom period in the business cycle.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-19 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.
