Commodity Forward Curves With Stochastic Time Change

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Stochastic Models for Prices Dynamics in Energy and Commodity Markets

Author : Fred Espen Benth
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031403673
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (314 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Models for Prices Dynamics in Energy and Commodity Markets by : Fred Espen Benth

Download or read book Stochastic Models for Prices Dynamics in Energy and Commodity Markets written by Fred Espen Benth and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-11-16 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph presents a theory for random field models in time and space, viewed as stochastic processes with values in a Hilbert space, to model the stochastic dynamics of forward and futures prices in energy, power, and commodity markets. In this book, the well-known Heath–Jarrow–Morton approach from interest rate theory is adopted and extended into an infinite-dimensional framework, allowing for flexible modeling of price stochasticity across time and along the term structure curve. Various models are introduced based on stochastic partial differential equations with infinite-dimensional Lévy processes as noise drivers, emphasizing random fields described by low-dimensional parametric covariance functions instead of classical high-dimensional factor models. The Filipović space, a separable Hilbert space of Sobolev type, is found to be a convenient state space for the dynamics of forward and futures term structures. The monograph provides a classification of important operators in this space, covering covariance operators and the stochastic modeling of volatility term structures, including the Samuelson effect. Fourier methods are employed to price many derivatives of interest in energy, power, and commodity markets, and sensitivity 'delta' expressions can be derived. Additionally, the monograph covers forward curve smoothing, the connection between forwards with fixed delivery and delivery period, as well as the classical theory of forward and futures pricing. This monograph will appeal to researchers and graduate students interested in mathematical finance and stochastic analysis applied in the challenging markets of energy, power, and commodities. Practitioners seeking sophisticated yet flexible and analytically tractable risk models will also find it valuable.

Commodity Price Dynamics

Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139501976
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Change of Time Methods in Quantitative Finance

Author : Anatoliy Swishchuk
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331932408X
Total Pages : 140 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Change of Time Methods in Quantitative Finance by : Anatoliy Swishchuk

Download or read book Change of Time Methods in Quantitative Finance written by Anatoliy Swishchuk and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-31 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is devoted to the history of Change of Time Methods (CTM), the connections of CTM to stochastic volatilities and finance, fundamental aspects of the theory of CTM, basic concepts, and its properties. An emphasis is given on many applications of CTM in financial and energy markets, and the presented numerical examples are based on real data. The change of time method is applied to derive the well-known Black-Scholes formula for European call options, and to derive an explicit option pricing formula for a European call option for a mean-reverting model for commodity prices. Explicit formulas are also derived for variance and volatility swaps for financial markets with a stochastic volatility following a classical and delayed Heston model. The CTM is applied to price financial and energy derivatives for one-factor and multi-factor alpha-stable Levy-based models. Readers should have a basic knowledge of probability and statistics, and some familiarity with stochastic processes, such as Brownian motion, Levy process and martingale.

Commodities and Commodity Derivatives

Author : Helyette Geman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470687738
Total Pages : 479 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodities and Commodity Derivatives by : Helyette Geman

Download or read book Commodities and Commodity Derivatives written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-24 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV

Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets

Author : Fred Espen Benth
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 981281230X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (128 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets by : Fred Espen Benth

Download or read book Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets written by Fred Espen Benth and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives.This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. Ornstein?Uhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386899
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Operations Research Proceedings 2021

Author : Norbert Trautmann
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031086236
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Operations Research Proceedings 2021 by : Norbert Trautmann

Download or read book Operations Research Proceedings 2021 written by Norbert Trautmann and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-08-29 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gathers a selection of peer-reviewed papers presented at the International Conference on Operations Research (OR 2021), which was hosted online by the University of Bern from August 31 to September 3, 2021, and was jointly organized by the Operations Research Societies of Switzerland (SVOR/ASRO), Germany (GOR e.V.), and Austria (ÖGOR). The respective papers discuss classical mathematical optimization, statistics and simulation techniques. These are complemented by computer science methods, and by tools for processing data, designing and implementing information systems. The book also examines recent advances in information technology, which allow massive volumes of data to be processed and enable real-time predictive and prescriptive business analytics to drive decisions and actions. Lastly, it presents a selection of problems that are modeled and treated while taking into account uncertainty, risk management, behavioral issues, etc.

Valuation, Hedging and Speculation in Competitive Electricity Markets

Author : Petter L. Skantze
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 146151701X
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)

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Book Synopsis Valuation, Hedging and Speculation in Competitive Electricity Markets by : Petter L. Skantze

Download or read book Valuation, Hedging and Speculation in Competitive Electricity Markets written by Petter L. Skantze and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The challenges currently facing particIpants m competitive electricity markets are unique and staggering: unprecedented price volatility, a crippling lack of historical market data on which to test new modeling approaches, and a continuously changing regulatory structure. Meeting these challenges will require the knowledge and experience of both the engineering and finance communities. Yet the two communities continue to largely ignore each other. The finance community believes that engineering models are too detailed and complex to be practically applicable in the fast changing market environment. Engineers counter that the finance models are merely statistical regressions, lacking the necessary structure to capture the true dynamic properties of complex power systems. While both views have merit, neither group has by themselves been able to produce effective tools for meeting industry challenges. The goal of this book is to convey the fundamental differences between electricity and other traded commodities, and the impact these differences have on valuation, hedging and operational decisions made by market participants. The optimization problems associated with these decisions are formulated in the context of the market realities of today's power industry, including a lack of liquidity on forward and options markets, limited availability of historical data, and constantly changing regulatory structures.

Commodities

Author : M. A. H. Dempster
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1498712339
Total Pages : 725 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodities by : M. A. H. Dempster

Download or read book Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-11-05 with total page 725 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development.This book covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets as well as the interaction between commodi

Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets

Author : Viviana Fanelli
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351730959
Total Pages : 145 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets by : Viviana Fanelli

Download or read book Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets written by Viviana Fanelli and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-01-14 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets provides a basic and self-contained introduction to the ideas underpinning financial modelling of products in commodity markets. The book offers a concise and operational vision of the main models used to represent, assess and simulate real assets and financial positions related to the commodity markets. It discusses statistical and mathematical tools important for estimating, implementing and calibrating quantitative models used for pricing and trading commodity-linked products and for managing basic and complex portfolio risks. Key features: Provides a step-by-step guide to the construction of pricing models, and for the applications of such models for the analysis of real data Written for scholars from a wide range of scientific fields, including economics and finance, mathematics, engineering and statistics, as well as for practitioners Illustrates some important pricing models using real data sets that will be commonly used in financial markets

Risk Management in Commodity Markets

Author : Helyette Geman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470740817
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Management in Commodity Markets by : Helyette Geman

Download or read book Risk Management in Commodity Markets written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-01-22 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities represent today the fastest growing markets worldwide. Historically misunderstood, generally under- studied and under- valued, certainly under- represented in the literature, commodities are suddenly receiving the attention they deserve. Bringing together some of the best authors in the field, this book focuses on the risk management issues associated with both soft and hard commodities: energy, weather, agriculturals, metals and shipping. Taking the reader through every part of the commodities markets, the authors discuss the intricacies of modelling spot and forward prices, as well as the design of new Futures markets. The book also looks at the use of options and other derivative contract forms for hedging purposes, as well as supply management in commodity markets. It looks at the implications for climate policy and climate research and analyzes the various freight derivatives markets and products used to manage shipping and freight risk in a global commodity world. It is required reading for energy and mining companies, utilities’ practitioners, commodity and cash derivatives traders in investment banks, CTA’s and hedge funds

The Handbook of Commodity Investing

Author : Frank J. Fabozzi
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470293209
Total Pages : 986 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis The Handbook of Commodity Investing by : Frank J. Fabozzi

Download or read book The Handbook of Commodity Investing written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-02 with total page 986 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Filled with a comprehensive collection of information from experts in the commodity investment industry, this detailed guide shows readers how to successfully incorporate commodities into their portfolios. Created with both the professional and individual investor in mind, The Handbook of Commodity Investments covers a wide range of issues, including the risk and return of commodities, diversification benefits, risk management, macroeconomic determinants of commodity investments, and commodity trading advisors. Starting with the basics of commodity investments and moving to more complex topics, such as performance measurement, asset pricing, and value at risk, The Handbook of Commodity Investments is a reliable resource for anyone who needs to understand this dynamic market.

Energy Convergence

Author : Peter C. Fusaro
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471266892
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (712 download)

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Book Synopsis Energy Convergence by : Peter C. Fusaro

Download or read book Energy Convergence written by Peter C. Fusaro and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-10-15 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Energy Convergence "Another outstanding contribution to the understanding of risk management by Peter Fusaro. A useful work for the workplace, executive management training, and the classroom." -Dennis O'Brien, Director, Institute for Energy Economics and Policy and John A. Brock Professor for Energy Economics and Policy Sarkeys Energy Center, University of Oklahoma "Energy Convergence identifies and addresses the key elements in the ongoing development and evolution of the energy trading markets. This book is an important addition to the literature on contemporary energy trading markets. It pulls together in one place thoughtful discussions about the way the energy markets are converging from different starting points." -Andrea S. Kramer, Partner, McDermott, Will & Emery, and author of Financial Products: Taxation, Regulation, and Design "Peter Fusaro is the worldly-wisest commentator on commodity markets and exchanges that I know and should have been listened to far more often than he has been. This new book provides everyone with a fresh opportunity. With several colleagues he has written the best up-to-date introduction to market risk management and energy trading which should be studied by both the new practitioner and the oldest hand on the exchange." -Napier Collyns, Cofounder of Global Business Network, former Public Director of the New York Mercantile Exchange "Peter Fusaro has once again assembled a team of energy professionals to provide their views on emerging commodity markets and evaluation techniques. The book provides an excellent overview of market developments and market interactions, as well as presenting the business case for convergence of commodity markets via online trading and the Internet. Overall, a very unique and insightful book." -Wayne Moore, Manager, Risk Control, Generation and Energy Marketing, Southern Company "Considering the recent upheavals in U.S. energy markets, from the California electricity crisis to Enron's demise, this volume provides a timely introduction for anyone interested in developing a better understanding of the turbulent nature and complex interdependencies of energy markets." -Riaz Siddiqi, President and CEO, Capstone Global Energy, LLC

Managing Energy Risk

Author : Markus Burger
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118618580
Total Pages : 452 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Energy Risk by : Markus Burger

Download or read book Managing Energy Risk written by Markus Burger and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-06-23 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of today's energy markets from a multi-commodity perspective As global warming takes center stage in the public and private sectors, new debates on the future of energy markets and electricity generation have emerged around the world. The Second Edition of Managing Energy Risk has been updated to reflect the latest products, approaches, and energy market evolution. A full 30% of the content accounts for changes that have occurred since the publication of the first edition. Practitioners will appreciate this contemporary approach to energy and the comprehensive information on recent market influences. A new chapter is devoted to the growing importance of renewable energy sources, related subsidy schemes and their impact on energy markets. Carbon emissions certificates, post-Fukushima market shifts, and improvements in renewable energy generation are all included. Further, due to the unprecedented growth in shale gas production in recent years, a significant amount of material on gas markets has been added in this edition. Managing Energy Risk is now a complete guide to both gas and electricity markets, and gas-specific models like gas storage and swing contracts are given their due. The unique, practical approach to energy trading includes a comprehensive explanation of the interactions and relations between all energy commodities. Thoroughly revised to reflect recent changes in renewable energy, impacts of the financial crisis, and market fluctuations in the wake of Fukushima Emphasizes both electricity and gas, with all-new gas valuation models and a thorough description of the gas market Written by a team of authors with theoretical and practical expertise, blending mathematical finance and technical optimization Covers developments in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, as well as coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables The latest developments in gas and power markets have demonstrated the growing importance of energy risk management for utility companies and energy intensive industry. By combining energy economics models and financial engineering, Managing Energy Risk delivers a balanced perspective that captures the nuances in the exciting world of energy.

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling

Author : Howard M. Taylor
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 1483269272
Total Pages : 410 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)

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Book Synopsis An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling by : Howard M. Taylor

Download or read book An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling written by Howard M. Taylor and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.

Energy Derivatives

Author : Les Clewlow
Publisher : Twayne Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9780953889600
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (896 download)

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Book Synopsis Energy Derivatives by : Les Clewlow

Download or read book Energy Derivatives written by Les Clewlow and published by Twayne Publishers. This book was released on 2000 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Commodity Derivatives

Author : Neil C. Schofield
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119349257
Total Pages : 549 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Derivatives by : Neil C. Schofield

Download or read book Commodity Derivatives written by Neil C. Schofield and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity Derivatives In the newly revised Second Edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications, expert trading educator and author Neil Schofield delivers a comprehensive overview of a wide variety of commodities and derivatives. Beginning with discussions of commodity markets generally before moving on to derivative valuation and risk management, the author then dives into individual commodity markets, like gold, base metals, crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and more. Schofield relies on his extensive experience at Barclays Investment Bank to offer readers detailed examinations of commodity finance and the use of commodities within a wider investment portfolio. The second edition includes discussions of critical new topics like dual curve swap valuation, option valuation within a negative price environment using the Bachelier model, volatility skews, smiles, smirks, term structures for major commodities, and more. You’ll find case studies on corporate failures linked to improper commodity risk management, as well as explorations of issues like the impact of growing interest in electric vehicles on commodity markets. The text of the original edition has been updated and expanded and new example transactions are included to help the reader understand the concepts discussed within. Each chapter follows a uniform structure, with typical demand and supply patterns following a non-technical description of the commodity at issue. Discussions of the physical markets in each commodity and the main exchange-traded and over-the-counter products conclude each chapter. Perfect for commodity and derivatives traders, analysts, and risk managers, the Second Edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications will also earn a place in the libraries of students and academics studying finance and the graduate intake in financial institutions. A one-stop resource for the main commodity markets and their associated derivatives Finance professionals seeking a single volume that fully describes the major commodity markets and their derivatives will find everything they need in the latest edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications. Former Global Head of Financial Markets Training at Barclays Investment Bank Neil Schofield delivers a rigorous and authoritative reference on a crucial, but often overlooked, subject. Completely revised and greatly expanded, the Second Edition of this essential text offers finance professionals and students coverage on every major class of commodities, including gold, steel, ethanol, crude oil, and more. You’ll also find discussions of derivative valuation, risk management, commodity finance, and the use of commodities within an investment portfolio. Non-technical descriptions of major commodity classes ensure the material is accessible to everyone while still in-depth and rigorous enough to deliver key information on an area central to global finance. Ideal for students and academics in finance, Commodity Derivatives is an indispensable guide for commodity and derivatives traders, analysts, and risk managers who seek a one-volume resource on foundational and advanced topics in commodity markets and their associated derivatives.