Cognitive Uncertainty

Download Cognitive Uncertainty full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Cognitive Uncertainty ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!

Ignorance and Uncertainty

Author : Olivier Compte
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108386512
Total Pages : 303 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (83 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Ignorance and Uncertainty by : Olivier Compte

Download or read book Ignorance and Uncertainty written by Olivier Compte and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-12-13 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Born of a belief that economic insights should not require much mathematical sophistication, this book proposes novel and parsimonious methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling, without complex mathematics. Economics has made great strides over the past several decades in modeling agents' decisions when they are incompletely informed, but many economists believe that there are aspects of these models that are less than satisfactory. Among the concerns are that ignorance is not captured well in most models, that agents' presumed cognitive ability is implausible, and that derived optimal behavior is sometimes driven by the fine details of the model rather than the underlying economics. Compte and Postlewaite lay out a tractable way to address these concerns, and to incorporate plausible limitations on agents' sophistication. A central aspect of the proposed methodology is to restrict the strategies assumed available to agents.

Taming Uncertainty

Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262353148
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Taming Uncertainty by : Ralph Hertwig

Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

Decision Making under Uncertainty

Author : R.W. Scholz
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080866700
Total Pages : 457 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (88 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Decision Making under Uncertainty by : R.W. Scholz

Download or read book Decision Making under Uncertainty written by R.W. Scholz and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1983-11-01 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the revised papers of an international symposium on research on fallacies, biases, and the development of decision behavior under uncertainty. The papers are organized in five main sections.The Introduction outlines the conceptual framework and how three of the sections - Cognitive Decision Research, Social Interaction, and Development and Epistemology - are interrelated and also how new fields, such as research into developmental questions, can be productively integrated.In the fifth section Comments are collected, which evaluate the impact of the contributions on decision research itself, and also on cognitive psychology, social psychology, economic theory, ant the discipline of mathematics education.

Bullish on Uncertainty

Author : Alexandra Michel
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139474189
Total Pages : 265 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Bullish on Uncertainty by : Alexandra Michel

Download or read book Bullish on Uncertainty written by Alexandra Michel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-11-10 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bullish on Uncertainty provides rare insight into the secretive world of Wall Street high finance, which has shaped influential business, governmental, and cultural leaders and keeps supplying new business practices to other organizations in dynamic and complex environments. The book studies how two highly successful Wall Street investment banks managed the uncertainty of their high-velocity environment through different work practices. One bank chose the familiar route of decreasing bankers' uncertainty. The other bank used the novel and effective practice of increasing bankers' uncertainty to make them more alert to new situations and more likely to draw on the bank's entire range of resources. Through vivid accounts of newcomers during their first two years, the book traces how the two banks' initially similar participants were transformed into fundamentally different kinds of persons by the different kinds of work practices in which they participated.

Cognitive Uncertainty and Self-esteem in Middle Childhood

Author : Nicola Martorano
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 98 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (57 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Cognitive Uncertainty and Self-esteem in Middle Childhood by : Nicola Martorano

Download or read book Cognitive Uncertainty and Self-esteem in Middle Childhood written by Nicola Martorano and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Cognitive Uncertainty

Author : Benjamin Enke
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (114 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Cognitive Uncertainty by : Benjamin Enke

Download or read book Cognitive Uncertainty written by Benjamin Enke and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a formal definition and an experimental measurement of the concept of cognitive uncertainty: people's subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. This concept allows us to bring together and partially explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice under ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations about economic variables. In each of these domains, behavior in experiments and surveys tends to be insensitive to variation in probabilities, as in the classical probability weighting function. Building on existing models of noisy Bayesian cognition, we formally propose that cognitive uncertainty generates these patterns by inducing people to compress probabilities towards a mental default of 50:50. We document experimentally that the responses of individuals with higher cognitive uncertainty indeed exhibit stronger compression of probabilities in choice under risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous manipulations of both cognitive uncertainty and the location of the mental default. The results provide causal evidence for the role of cognitive uncertainty in belief formation and choice, which we quantify through structural estimations.

Rationality for Mortals

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199890129
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Rationality for Mortals by : Gerd Gigerenzer

Download or read book Rationality for Mortals written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

The Relationship Between Perception of Cognitive Uncertainty, Knowledge Importance, Information Source Accessibility and Information Source Usefulness, and Information Seeking Behavior

Download The Relationship Between Perception of Cognitive Uncertainty, Knowledge Importance, Information Source Accessibility and Information Source Usefulness, and Information Seeking Behavior PDF Online Free

Author : Mohammed Zin Bin Nordin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Relationship Between Perception of Cognitive Uncertainty, Knowledge Importance, Information Source Accessibility and Information Source Usefulness, and Information Seeking Behavior by : Mohammed Zin Bin Nordin

Download or read book The Relationship Between Perception of Cognitive Uncertainty, Knowledge Importance, Information Source Accessibility and Information Source Usefulness, and Information Seeking Behavior written by Mohammed Zin Bin Nordin and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Uncertain Mind

Author : Richard M. Sorrentino
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1135064326
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (35 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Uncertain Mind by : Richard M. Sorrentino

Download or read book The Uncertain Mind written by Richard M. Sorrentino and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses individual differences in how people react to uncertainty. The authors show that while some people are relatively comfortable dealing with uncertainty and strive to resolve it (uncertainty-oriented), others are more likely to avoid uncertainty, preferring the familiar or the known (certainty-oriented). They go on to examine the implications of an uncertainty orientation for understanding processes of self-knowledge, social cognition and attitude change, achievement, motivation and performance, interpersonal and group processes, and issues relating to physical and psychological health concerns. Research is discussed which links this uncertainty orientation to each of these issues, raising important practical and theoretical questions for each. The book also considers possible implications for people of both orientations of living in times that may be characterized as being uncertain.

Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain

Author : Paul W. Glimcher
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262572279
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (722 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain by : Paul W. Glimcher

Download or read book Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain written by Paul W. Glimcher and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004-09-17 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this provocative book, Paul Glimcher argues that economic theory may provide an alternative to the classical Cartesian model of the brain and behavior. Glimcher argues that Cartesian dualism operates from the false premise that the reflex is able to describe behavior in the real world that animals inhabit. A mathematically rich cognitive theory, he claims, could solve the most difficult problems that any environment could present, eliminating the need for dualism by eliminating the need for a reflex theory. Such a mathematically rigorous description of the neural processes that connect sensation and action, he explains, will have its roots in microeconomic theory. Economic theory allows physiologists to define both the optimal course of action that an animal might select and a mathematical route by which that optimal solution can be derived. Glimcher outlines what an economics-based cognitive model might look like and how one would begin to test it empirically. Along the way, he presents a fascinating history of neuroscience. He also discusses related questions about determinism, free will, and the stochastic nature of complex behavior.

Surfing Uncertainty

Author : Andy Clark
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190217014
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (92 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Surfing Uncertainty by : Andy Clark

Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exciting new theories in neuroscience, psychology, and artificial intelligence are revealing minds like ours as predictive minds, forever trying to guess the incoming streams of sensory stimulation before they arrive. In this up-to-the-minute treatment, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores new ways of thinking about perception, action, and the embodied mind.

Who Is Responsible for Uncertainty

Author : Jiahui Zhu
Publisher : AuthorHouse
ISBN 13 : 1467889180
Total Pages : 135 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (678 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Who Is Responsible for Uncertainty by : Jiahui Zhu

Download or read book Who Is Responsible for Uncertainty written by Jiahui Zhu and published by AuthorHouse. This book was released on 2012-03-09 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ever wondered why someone succeeded and someone failed? If you do, you are not alone because this has been a puzzle until the theory that has been introduced by this book.

Handbook of the Uncertain Self

Author : Robert M. Arkin
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1136950575
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (369 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Handbook of the Uncertain Self by : Robert M. Arkin

Download or read book Handbook of the Uncertain Self written by Robert M. Arkin and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook explores the cognitive, motivational, interpersonal, clinical, and applied aspects of personal uncertainty. It showcases both the diversity and the unity that defines contemporary perspectives on uncertainty in self within social and personality psychology. The contributions to the volume are all written by distinguished scholars in personality, social psychology, and clinical psychology united by their common focus on the causes and consequences of self-uncertainty. Chapters explore the similarities and differences between personal uncertainty and other psychological experiences in terms of their nature and relationship with human thought, emotion, motivation, and behavior. Specific challenges posed by personal uncertainty and the coping strategies people develop in their daily life are identified. There is an assessment of the potential negative and positive repercussions of coping with the specific experience of self-uncertainty, including academic, health, and relationship outcomes. Throughout, strategies specifically designed to assist others in confronting the unique challenges posed by self-uncertainty in ways that emphasize healthy psychological functioning and growth are promoted. In addition, the contributions to the Handbook touch on the psychological, social, and cultural context of the new millennium, including concepts such as Friedman’s "flat world," confidence, the absence of doubt in world leaders, the threat of terrorism since 9/11, the arts, doubt and religious belief, and views of doubt as the universal condition of humankind. The Handbook is an invaluable resource for researchers, practitioners, and senior undergraduate and graduate students in social and personality psychology, clinical and counseling psychology, educational psychology, and developmental psychology.

Surprise, Uncertainty, and Mental Structures

Author : Daniel and Amy Starch Research Professor of Psychology Emeritus Jerome Kagan
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674007352
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (74 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Surprise, Uncertainty, and Mental Structures by : Daniel and Amy Starch Research Professor of Psychology Emeritus Jerome Kagan

Download or read book Surprise, Uncertainty, and Mental Structures written by Daniel and Amy Starch Research Professor of Psychology Emeritus Jerome Kagan and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2002-04-15 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the distinctive manner that has made him one of the most influential forces in developmental psychology, Kagan challenges scientific commonplaces about mental processes, pointing in particular to the significant but undervalued role of surprise and uncertainty in shaping behavior, emotion, and thought.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (841 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Managing Uncertainty in Organizational Communication

Author : Michael W. Kramer
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135613923
Total Pages : 251 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (356 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Managing Uncertainty in Organizational Communication by : Michael W. Kramer

Download or read book Managing Uncertainty in Organizational Communication written by Michael W. Kramer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-04 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines uncertainty reduction theory (URT) and research applicable to organizational settings; it proposes a model for a Theory of Managing Uncertainty (TMU). For scholars/students in organizational/interpersonal/group communication.

Knowledge Potential Measurement and Uncertainty

Author : Kerstin Fink
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3322812405
Total Pages : 285 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (228 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Knowledge Potential Measurement and Uncertainty by : Kerstin Fink

Download or read book Knowledge Potential Measurement and Uncertainty written by Kerstin Fink and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kerstin Fink discusses the two mainstream measurement fields: the cognitive science approach and the management approach. She develops the knowledge potential view which is determined by nine key measurement variables, i.e. content, culture, networking, organizational knowledge, learning and training, customer and competitor knowledge, and knowledge management systems.