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Climate Change Projection And Time Varying Multi Dimensional Risk Analysis
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Book Synopsis Climate Change Projection and Time-varying Multi-dimensional Risk Analysis by : Ali Sarhadi
Download or read book Climate Change Projection and Time-varying Multi-dimensional Risk Analysis written by Ali Sarhadi and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, population growth and global warming consequent to greenhouse gas emissions because of human activities, has changed the atmospheric composition leading to intensifying extreme climate phenomena and overall increase of extreme events. These extreme events have caused human suffering and devastating effects in recent record-breaking warming years. To mitigate adverse consequences arising from global warming, the best strategy is to project the future probabilistic behavior of extreme climate phenomena under changing environment. The first contribution of this research is to improve the predictive power of regression-based statistical downscaling processes to accurately project the future behavior of extreme climate phenomena. First, a supervised dimensionality reduction algorithm is proposed for the statistical downscaling to derive a low-dimensional manifold representing climate change signals encoding of high-dimensional atmospheric variables. Such an algorithm is novel in climate change studies as past literature has focused on deriving low-dimensional principal components from large-scale atmospheric projectors without taking into account the target hydro-climate variables. The new algorithm called Supervised Principal Component analysis (Supervised PCA) outperforms all of the existing state-of-the-art dimensionality reduction algorithms. The model improves the performance of the statistical downscaling modelling through deriving subspaces that have maximum dependency with the target hydro-climate variables. A kernel version of Supervised PCA is also introduced to reduce nonlinear dimensionality and capture all of the nonlinear and complex variabilities between hydro-climate response variable and atmospheric projectors. To address the biases arising from difference between observed and simulated large-scale atmospheric projectors, and to represent anomalies of low frequency variability of teleconnections in General Circulation Models (GCMs), a Multivariate Recursive Nesting Bias Correction (MRNBC) is proposed to the regression-based statistical downscaling. The proposed method is able to use multiple variables in multiple locations to simultaneously correct temporal and spatial biases in cross dependent multi-projectors. To reduce another source of uncertainty arising from complexity and nonlinearity in quantitative empirical relationships in the statistical downscaling, the results demonstrate the superiority of a Bayesian machine-learning algorithm. The predictive power of the statistical downscaling is therefore improved through addressing the aforementioned sources of uncertainty. This results in improvement of the projection of the global warming impacts on the probabilistic behavior of hydro-climate variables using future multi-model ensemble GCMs under forcing climate change scenarios. The results of two Design-of-Experiments also reveal that the proposed comprehensive statistical downscaling is credible and adjustable to the changes under non-stationary conditions arising from climate change. Under the impact of climate change arising from anthropogenic global warming, it is demonstrated that the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena are changed over time. It is also well known that the extreme climate processes are multi-dimensional by their very nature characterized by multi-dimensions that are highly dependent. Accordingly, to strength the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing climate, it is of crucial importance to update the risk concept to a new adaptive multi-dimensional time-varying one to integrate anomalies of dynamic anthropogenically forced environments. The main contribution of this research is to develop a new generation of multivariate time-varying risk concept for an adaptive design framework in non-stationary conditions arising from climate change. This research develops a Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula model describing time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete marginals of extreme multi-dimensional climate phenomena. The framework is able to integrate any anomalies in extreme multi-dimensional events in non-stationary conditions arising from climate change. It generates iterative samples using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method from the full conditional marginals and joint distribution in a fully likelihood-based Bayesian inference. The framework also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying Joint Return Period (JRP) concept to quantify the extent of changes in the nature and the risk of extreme multi-dimensional events over time under the impact of climate change. The proposed generalized time-dependent risk framework can be applied to all stochastic multi-dimensional climate systems that are under the influence of changing environments.
Author :Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Publisher :Cambridge University Press ISBN 13 :9781009157971 Total Pages :755 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (579 download)
Book Synopsis The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis A Short Guide to Climate Change Risk by : Professor Nigel Arnell
Download or read book A Short Guide to Climate Change Risk written by Professor Nigel Arnell and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2015-01-28 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change poses a risk to business operations and to markets--but at the same time it can bring opportunities for some businesses. With chapters on the nature, science and politics of climate change risk, as well as how to assess, then how to cope with it, and recommendations for incorporating climate change risks into a Company Climate Risk System, this concise guide serves the needs of business students and practitioners across a wide range of sectors, public and private.
Book Synopsis Application of Uncertainty Quantification, Benchmarking, and Model Diagnostic Tools to Inform Climate Risk Assessments by : Haochen Ye
Download or read book Application of Uncertainty Quantification, Benchmarking, and Model Diagnostic Tools to Inform Climate Risk Assessments written by Haochen Ye and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex models provide inputs to climate risks assessments. Projected climate risks present challenges in multiple sectors. Climate risk-informed decision-making can require the use of models with complex dynamics. In these models, uncertainties can arise from multiple sources including observational data, model structures, model parameters, and projected forcings. Neglecting these uncertainties may lead to biased climate risk projections and poor decisions. However, quantifying these uncertainties and their impacts can be nontrivial. This dissertation applies and benchmarks selected existing model diagnostic tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis using case studies. The first study assesses uncertainties in maize yield projections through a weather-yield statistical model. This study addresses two questions: (1) How does the incorporation of parametric and climate forcing uncertainties change maize yield projections? (2) What is the relative importance of these uncertainties on the uncertainties surrounding maize yield projections? This study first adopts a pre-calibration method to sample the parametric uncertainties and then applies a cumulative sensitivity decomposition method to quantify the impacts of parametric uncertainty and climate forcing uncertainty on maize yield projection variance. Considering both uncertainties expands the tail of yield projections. Our results show that parametric uncertainty is more important than climate forcing uncertainty. The second encompasses ongoing work that seeks to quantify uncertainties of soil and crop-related parameters in soil moisture simulation hindcasts and projections from a hydrological model. This study focuses on how to sample these uncertainties using limited available soil moisture observations. This study applies a pre-calibration method similar to the first study to sample plausible soil moisture simulations. This is a step towards more comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for crop yields and economic projections. The third study benchmarks the performance of different global sensitivity analysis methods for a wide range of model complexities and evaluation times. This study addresses two main questions: (1) How do model space dimensions and evaluation times influence the choice of a global sensitivity analysis method? (2) How do model space dimensions and evaluation times change the estimated computational cost of the fastest sensitivity analysis method? This study compares the results and computational costs of four existing global sensitivity analysis methods using polynomial test models with varying model evaluation times and parameter space dimensions. The emulation and adaptive sampling methods are faster than the standard Sobol' methods for high-dimensional or slow models, and the Bayesian adaptive spline surface method is fast for most scenarios. The pre-calibration method is a straightforward approach to sample uncertainties but can have a low sampling efficiency for high-dimensional problems. The choice of global sensitivity analysis methods depends on nontrivial interactions between the dimensionality of the model's parameter space and model evaluation time. These studies can guide the choice of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods in climate risk assessments. Proper selection and use of these methods can help sample and quantify important model uncertainties with lower computational costs. Future work can expand these studies by considering more types of uncertainties, more types of models, and more uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods. This can improve the understanding and application of different model diagnostic tools in climate risk assessments and relevant decision-making.
Author :Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Publisher :Cambridge University Press ISBN 13 :1107025060 Total Pages :593 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (7 download)
Book Synopsis Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Book Synopsis Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment by : Jana Sillmann
Download or read book Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment written by Jana Sillmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate extremes often imply significant impacts on human and natural systems, and these extreme events are anticipated to be among the potentially most harmful consequences of a changing climate. However, while extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to address such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capabilities vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover, traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multi-model intercomparisons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated impacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment describes challenges, opportunities and methodologies for the analysis of the impacts of climate extremes across various sectors to support their impact and risk assessment. It thereby also facilitates cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary discussions and exchange among climate and impact scientists. The sectors covered include agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, transport, conflict, and more broadly covering the human-environment nexus. The book concludes with an outlook on the need for more transdisciplinary work and international collaboration between scientists and practitioners to address emergent risks and extreme events towards risk reduction and strengthened societal resilience. Provides an overview about past, present and future changes in climate and weather extremes and how to connect that knowledge to impact and risk assessment under global warming Presents different approaches to assess societal-relevant impacts and risk of climate and weather extremes, including compound events, and the complexity of risk cascades and the interconnectedness of societal risk Features applications across a diversity of sectors, including agriculture, health, ecosystem services and urban transport
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309445515 Total Pages :101 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-11-25 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established in 1990 to "assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."1 A key responsibility for the program is to conduct National Climate Assessments (NCAs) every 4 years.2 These assessments are intended to inform the nation about "observed changes in climate, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future." The USGCRP hopes that government entities from federal agencies to small municipalities, citizens, communities, and businesses will rely on these assessments of climate- related risks for planning and decision-making. The third NCA (NCA3) was published in 2014 and work on the fourth is beginning. The USGCRP asked the Board on Environmental Change and Society of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a workshop to explore ways to frame the NCA4 and subsequent NCA reports in terms of risks to society. The workshop was intended to collect experienced views on how to characterize and communicate information about climate-related hazards, risks, and opportunities that will support decision makers in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce vulnerability to likely changes in climate, and increase resilience to those changes. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
Book Synopsis Antarctic Ecosystems by : William Davison
Download or read book Antarctic Ecosystems written by William Davison and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Coastal environmental and ecological data analysis by : Meilin Wu
Download or read book Coastal environmental and ecological data analysis written by Meilin Wu and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-04-17 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design by : Patrick A. Ray
Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Book Synopsis Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management by : Walter Leal Filho
Download or read book Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management written by Walter Leal Filho and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-08-10 with total page 675 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been some degree of reluctance in the past to consider disaster risk management within the mainstream of adaptation to climate variability and climate change. However, there is now wide recognition of the need to incorporate disaster risk management concerns in dealing with such phenomena. There is also a growing awareness of the necessity for a multi-sectoral approach in managing the effects of climate variability and climate change, since this can lead to a significant reduction of risk. This book presents the latest findings from scientific research on climate variation, climate change and their links with disaster risk management. It showcases projects and other initiatives in this field that are being undertaken in both industrialised and developing countries, by universities and scientific institutions, government bodies, national and international agencies, NGOs and other stakeholders. Finally, it discusses current and future challenges, identifying opportunities and highlighting the still unrealised potential for promoting better understanding of the connections between climate variation, climate change and disaster risk management worldwide.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513529196 Total Pages :120 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2020 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-04-14 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2020 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) assesses the financial stability challenges posed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Chapter 1 describes how financial conditions tightened abrubtly with the onset of the pandemic, with risk asset prices dropping sharply as investors rushed to safety and liquidity. It finds that a further tightening of financial conditions may expose vulnerabilities, including among nonbank financial institutions, and that bank resilience may be tested if economic and financial market stresses rise. Vulnerabilities in global risky corporate credit markets, including weakened credit quality of borrowers, looser underwriting standards, liquidity risks at investment funds, and increased interconnectedness, could generate losses at nonbank financial institutions in a severe adverse scenario, as discussed in Chapter 2. The pandemic led to an unprecedented and sharp reversal of portfolio flows, highlighting the challenges of managing flows in emerging and frontier markets. Chapter 3 shows that global financial conditions tend to influence portfolio flows more during surges than in normal times, that stronger domestic fundamentals can help mitigate outflows, and that greater foreign participation in local currency bond markets may increase price volatility where domestic markets lack depth. Beyond the immediate challenges of COVID-19, Chapter 4 explores the profitability pressures that banks are likely to face over the medium term in an environment where low interest rates are expected to persist. Chapter 5 takes a broader perspective on physical risks associated with climate change. It finds that these risks do not appear to be reflected in global equity valuations and that stress testing and better disclosure of exposures to climatic hazards are essential to better assess physical risk.
Author :Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Publisher :Cambridge University Press ISBN 13 :1009175351 Total Pages :2410 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (91 download)
Book Synopsis Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Download or read book Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-07-26 with total page 2410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It considers in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical, and biological processes and feedbacks; global and regional climate modelling; advances in methods of analyses; and insights from climate services. It assesses the current state of the climate; human influence on climate in all regions; future climate change including sea level rise; global warming effects including extremes; climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation; limiting climate change by reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions and reducing other greenhouse gas emissions; and benefits for air quality. The report serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with the latest policy-relevant information on climate change. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Book Synopsis Advances in Hydrologic Forecasts and Water Resources Management by : Fi-John Chang
Download or read book Advances in Hydrologic Forecasts and Water Resources Management written by Fi-John Chang and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-01-20 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impacts of climate change on water resource management, as well as increasingly severe natural disasters over the last decades, have caught global attention. Reliable and accurate hydrological forecasts are essential for efficient water resource management and the mitigation of natural disasters. While the notorious nonlinear hydrological processes make accurate forecasts a very challenging task, it requires advanced techniques to build accurate forecast models and reliable management systems. One of the newest techniques for modeling complex systems is artificial intelligence (AI). AI can replicate the way humans learn and has great capability to efficiently extract crucial information from large amounts of data to solve complex problems. The fourteen research papers published in this Special Issue contribute significantly to the uncertainty assessment of operational hydrologic forecasting under changing environmental conditions and the promotion of water resources management by using the latest advanced techniques, such as AI techniques. The fourteen contributions across four major research areas: (1) machine learning approaches to hydrologic forecasting; (2) uncertainty analysis and assessment on hydrological modeling under changing environments; (3) AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation; (4) adaption strategies of extreme hydrological events for hazard mitigation. The papers published in this issue will not only advance water sciences but also help policymakers to achieve more sustainable and effective water resource management.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309471699 Total Pages :207 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-06-18 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Book Synopsis Handbook on Climate Change and Disasters by : Shaw, Rajib
Download or read book Handbook on Climate Change and Disasters written by Shaw, Rajib and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2022-10-13 with total page 711 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive Handbook assesses the escalation of global natural disasters as a result of climate change. Examining the complex interplay of human and natural activities, it highlights the growing vulnerability of people and communities in developing countries to floods, landslides, cyclones, heat waves and wildfires.
