Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Capturing Tail Risks Beyond Var
Download Capturing Tail Risks Beyond Var full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Capturing Tail Risks Beyond Var ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Capturing Tail Risks Beyond VaR. by : Woon K. Wong
Download or read book Capturing Tail Risks Beyond VaR. written by Woon K. Wong and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since Value-at-Risk (VaR) disregards tail losses beyond the VaR boundary, the expected shortfall (ES), which measures the average loss when a VaR is exceeded, and the tail-risk-of-VaR (TR), which sums the sizes of tail losses, are used to investigate risks at the tails of distributions for major stock markets. As VaR exceptions are rare, we employ the saddlepoint or small sample asymptotic technique to backtest ES and TR. Because the two risk measures are complementary to each other and hence provide more powerful backtests, we are able to show that (a) the correct specification of distribution tail, rather than heteroscedastic process, plays a key role to accurate risk forecasts; and (b) it is best to model the tails separately from the central part of distribution using the generalized Pareto distribution. To sum up, we provide empirical evidence that financial markets behave differently during crises, and extreme risks cannot be modeled effectively under normal market conditions or based on a short data history.
Book Synopsis Backtesting Value-at-Risk Based on Tail Losses by : Woon K. Wong
Download or read book Backtesting Value-at-Risk Based on Tail Losses written by Woon K. Wong and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme losses caused by leverage and financial derivatives highlight the need to backtest Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on sizes of tail losses, for the risk measure disregards losses beyond the VaR boundary and there is no formal statistical analysis required for stress testing. While Basel II backtests VaR by counting the number of exceptions, this paper proposes to use saddlepoint technique to backtest VaR by summing the tail losses. Monte Carlo simulations show that the technique is very accurate and powerful even for small samples. The proposed backtest finds substantial downside tail risks in S&P 500, and that risk models which account for jumps, skewed and fat-tailed distributions fail to capture the tail risk during the 1987 stock market crash. Finally, the saddlepoint technique is used to derive a multiplication factor for risk capital requirement that is responsive to sizes of tail losses.
Book Synopsis A Theory for Measures of Tail Risk by : Fangda Liu
Download or read book A Theory for Measures of Tail Risk written by Fangda Liu and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The notion of "tail risk" has been a crucial consideration in modern risk management. To achieve a comprehensive understanding of the tail risk, we carry out an axiomatic study for risk measures which quantify the tail risk, that is, the behavior of a risk beyond a certain quantile. Such risk measures are referred to as tail risk measures in this paper. The two popular classes of regulatory risk measures in banking and insurance, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES), are prominent, yet elementary, examples of tail risk measures. We establish a connection between a tail risk measure and a corresponding law-invariant risk measure, called its generator, and investigate their joint properties. A tail risk measure inherits many properties from its generator, but not subadditivity or convexity; nevertheless, a tail risk measure is coherent if and only if its generator is coherent. We explore further relevant issues on tail risk measures, such as bounds, distortion risk measures, risk aggregation, elicitability, and dual representations. In particular, there is no elicitable tail convex risk measure rather than the essential supremum, and under a continuity condition, the only elicitable and positively homogeneous monetary tail risk measures are the VaRs.
Book Synopsis Sample Size, Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation by : Laura García Jorcano
Download or read book Sample Size, Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation written by Laura García Jorcano and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2020-02-24 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis analyzes the effect that the sample size, the asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the leverage in their volatility have on the estimation and forecasting of market risk in financial assets. The goal is to compare the performance of a variety of models for the estimation and forecasting of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for a set of assets of different nature: market indexes, individual stocks, bonds, exchange rates, and commodities. The three chapters of the thesis address issues of greatest interest for the measurement of risk in financial institutions and, therefore, for the supervision of risks in the financial system. They deal with technical issues related to the implementation of the Basel Committee's guidelines on some aspects of which very little is known in the academic world and in the specialized financial sector. In the first chapter, a numerical correction is proposed on the values usually estimatedwhen there is little statistical information, either because it is a financial asset (bond, investment fund...) recently created or issued, or because the nature or the structure of the asset or portfolio have recently changed. The second chapter analyzes the relevance of different aspects of risk modeling. The third and last chapter provides a characterization of the preferable methodology to comply with Basel requirements related to the backtesting of the Expected Shortfall.
Book Synopsis Measuring & Managing Financial Risks with Improved Alternatives Beyond Value-at-Risk (VaR). by : Yogesh Malhotra
Download or read book Measuring & Managing Financial Risks with Improved Alternatives Beyond Value-at-Risk (VaR). written by Yogesh Malhotra and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: [Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, will consider ditching value-at-risk as the main measure on which market risk capital is calculated, sources say - but it may not be easy to find a replacement." Subsequently, in May 2012, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published Basel Committee's 'Fundamental review of the trading book - consultative document' proposing the switch from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to Expected Shortfall in order to better capture 'tail risk.']Based upon a literature survey of research on Value-at-Risk (VaR), the predominant measure of financial risk assessment in the global Banking and Finance industry, this presentation outlines the case for advancing beyond VaR for better measurement of systemic financial risks. Specifying why alternatives to VaR are necessary given known inherent limitations of VaR as a measure of systemic risks, it also examines if in years preceding the Financial Crisis, specific limitations of VaR observed in course of the Crisis were foreseen by other researchers. Establishing the need for better measures of systemic risks beyond VaR, based upon a survey of the spectral risk measures, it reviews alternative models and measures from extant research and empirical research on their comparative analysis.
Book Synopsis Capital Adequacy beyond Basel by : Hal S. Scott
Download or read book Capital Adequacy beyond Basel written by Hal S. Scott and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2005-02-17 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is timely since the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision at the Bank for International Settlements is in the process of making major changes in the capital rules for banks. It is important that capital adequacy regulation helps to achieve financial stability in the most efficient way. Capital adequacy rules have become a key tool to protect financial institutions. The research contained within the book covers some key issues at stake in the capital requirements for insurance and securities firms. The contributors are among the leading scholars in financial economics and law. Their contributions analyze the use of subordinated debt, internal models, and rating agencies in addition to examining the effect on capital of reinsurance, securitization, credit derivatives, and similar instruments.
Book Synopsis Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall by : Simona Roccioletti
Download or read book Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall written by Simona Roccioletti and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-04 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.
Book Synopsis How the Risk Measures Play Important Roles for Tail Risk Management and Diversification by : Takuo Higashide
Download or read book How the Risk Measures Play Important Roles for Tail Risk Management and Diversification written by Takuo Higashide and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the world of investment, the subject of building a portfolio concerning tail risk is still one of the frequently discussed subjects and unquestionably vital for investors. This paper seeks to examine how the risk measures, lower tail-dependence based on the copulas approach and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), affect the portfolio strategies and play important roles for tail risk management and diversify the portfolio. By using these two risk measures mentioned above, two different types of risk-based portfolios are proposed that consider for the tail risks: 1) Minimum-lower tail-dependence portfolio (RMTP) and 2) Risk Parity Portfolio based on Conditional Value-at-Risk (CRPP). The simulation results showed how those two risk-based portfolios, RMTP and CRPP, work effectively in multi-asset allocation framework with 6 assets: stocks and sovereign bonds of Japan, United States and Germany, based on the monthly rebalance rule, using 2004-2018 sample period. One of the key findings were that both RMTP and CRPP strategies delivered better performances compared with the traditional portfolio strategies in terms of sharp ratio: 1) RMTP yielded 0.92 and 2) CRPP yielded 0.99 (by adding an appropriate risk reduction to this portfolio, the sharp ratio went up to 1.76). In addition, both of these two strategies also worked effectively in terms of the average of maximum monthly drawdown related to the effect of the tail risk: 1) RMTP by 1.80% and 2) CRPP by 1.74% (by adding an appropriate risk reduction to this portfolio, maximum drawdown decreased to 0.78%). Furthermore, this paper also studies an enhancement strategy based on Risk Parity Portfolios (RPP) focusing on and using co-integration relationship (co-integration approach). According to the simulation result, this proposed enhancement strategy has a potential to yield roughly 4.5% return. Finally, this paper presents the explicit derivation of lower tail-dependence and co-integration approach.
Download or read book The xVA Challenge written by Jon Gregory and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-09-24 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed, expert-driven guide to today's major financial point of interest The xVA Challenge: Counterparty Credit Risk, Funding, Collateral, and Capital is a practical guide from one of the leading and most influential credit practitioners, Jon Gregory. Focusing on practical methods, this informative guide includes discussion around the latest regulatory requirements, market practice, and academic thinking. Beginning with a look at the emergence of counterparty risk during the recent global financial crisis, the discussion delves into the quantification of firm-wide credit exposure and risk mitigation methods, such as netting and collateral. It also discusses thoroughly the xVA terms, notably CVA, DVA, FVA, ColVA, and KVA and their interactions and overlaps. The discussion of other aspects such as wrong-way risks, hedging, stress testing, and xVA management within a financial institution are covered. The extensive coverage and detailed treatment of what has become an urgent topic makes this book an invaluable reference for any practitioner, policy maker, or student. Counterparty credit risk and related aspects such as funding, collateral, and capital have become key issues in recent years, now generally characterized by the term 'xVA'. This book provides practical, in-depth guidance toward all aspects of xVA management. Market practice around counterparty credit risk and credit and debit value adjustment (CVA and DVA) The latest regulatory developments including Basel III capital requirements, central clearing, and mandatory collateral requirements The impact of accounting requirements such as IFRS 13 Recent thinking on the applications of funding, collateral, and capital adjustments (FVA, ColVA and KVA) The sudden realization of extensive counterparty risks has severely compromised the health of global financial markets. It's now a major point of action for all financial institutions, which have realized the growing importance of consistent treatment of collateral, funding, and capital alongside counterparty risk. The xVA Challenge: Counterparty Credit Risk, Funding, Collateral, and Capital provides expert perspective and real-world guidance for today's institutions.
Book Synopsis Assessing Tail-Related Risks in Asian Equity Markets by : Xiaoming Li
Download or read book Assessing Tail-Related Risks in Asian Equity Markets written by Xiaoming Li and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In assessing tail-related risks in Asian equity markets, we blend the GPD model with the GARCH one. This approach enables us to reveal that innovations after volatility filtering may still remain heavy-tailed or involve tail-related risk that cannot be captured by the GARCH-type model alone. Our results indicate that, at high quantiles, VaRs based on the GPD approach are greater than those based on the normal distribution. We also report the GPD-based unconditional and conditional expected shortfalls that may contain rich information about the potential losses (gains) beyond VaR for the markets under investigation.
Book Synopsis Lambda Value at Risk and Regulatory Capital by : Asmerilda Hitaj
Download or read book Lambda Value at Risk and Regulatory Capital written by Asmerilda Hitaj and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents the first methodological proposal of estimation of the Lambda VaR. Our approach is dynamic and calibrated to market extreme scenarios, incorporating the need of regulators and financial institutions in more sensitive risk measures. We also propose a simple backtesting methodology by extending the VaR hypothesis-testing framework. Hence, we test our Lambda VaR proposals under extreme downward scenarios of the financial crisis and different assumptions on the profit and loss distribution. The findings show that our Lambda VaR estimations are able to capture the tail risk and react to market fluctuations significantly faster than the VaR and expected shortfall. The backtesting exercise displays a higher level of accuracy for our Lambda VaR estimations.
Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science by : Saul I. Gass
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science written by Saul I. Gass and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 774 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Operations Research: 1934-1941," 35, 1, 143-152; "British The goal of the Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Operational Research in World War II," 35, 3, 453-470; Management Science is to provide to decision makers and "U. S. Operations Research in World War II," 35, 6, 910-925; problem solvers in business, industry, government and and the 1984 article by Harold Lardner that appeared in academia a comprehensive overview of the wide range of Operations Research: "The Origin of Operational Research," ideas, methodologies, and synergistic forces that combine to 32, 2, 465-475. form the preeminent decision-aiding fields of operations re search and management science (OR/MS). To this end, we The Encyclopedia contains no entries that define the fields enlisted a distinguished international group of academics of operations research and management science. OR and MS and practitioners to contribute articles on subjects for are often equated to one another. If one defines them by the which they are renowned. methodologies they employ, the equation would probably The editors, working with the Encyclopedia's Editorial stand inspection. If one defines them by their historical Advisory Board, surveyed and divided OR/MS into specific developments and the classes of problems they encompass, topics that collectively encompass the foundations, applica the equation becomes fuzzy. The formalism OR grew out of tions, and emerging elements of this ever-changing field. We the operational problems of the British and U. s. military also wanted to establish the close associations that OR/MS efforts in World War II.
Book Synopsis TAIL RISK HEDGING: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets by : Vineer Bhansali
Download or read book TAIL RISK HEDGING: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets written by Vineer Bhansali and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2013-12-27 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "TAIL RISKS" originate from the failure of mean reversion and the idealized bell curve of asset returns, which assumes that highly probable outcomes occur near the center of the curve and that unlikely occurrences, good and bad, happen rarely, if at all, at either "tail" of the curve. Ever since the global financial crisis, protecting investments against these severe tail events has become a priority for investors and money managers, but it is something Vineer Bhansali and his team at PIMCO have been doing for over a decade. In one of the first comprehensive and rigorous books ever written on tail risk hedging, he lays out a systematic approach to protecting portfolios from, and potentially benefiting from, rare yet severe market outcomes. Tail Risk Hedging is built on the author's practical experience applying macroeconomic forecasting and quantitative modeling techniques across asset markets. Using empirical data and charts, he explains the consequences of diversification failure in tail events and how to manage portfolios when this happens. He provides an easy-to-use, yet rigorous framework for protecting investment portfolios against tail risk and using tail hedging to play offense. Tail Risk Hedging explores how to: Generate profits from volatility and illiquidity during tail-risk events in equity and credit markets Buy attractively priced tail hedges that add value to a portfolio and quantify basis risk Interpret the psychology of investors in option pricing and portfolio construction Customize explicit hedges for retirement investments Hedge risk factors such as duration risk and inflation risk Managing tail risk is today's most significant development in risk management, and this thorough guide helps you access every aspect of it. With the time-tested and mathematically rigorous strategies described here, including pieces of computer code, you get access to insights to help mitigate portfolio losses in significant downturns, create explosive liquidity while unhedged participants are forced to sell, and create more aggressive yet tail-risk-focused portfolios. The book also gives you a unique, higher level view of how tail risk is related to investing in alternatives, and of derivatives such as zerocost collars and variance swaps. Volatility and tail risks are here to stay, and so should your clients' wealth when you use Tail Risk Hedging for managing portfolios. PRAISE FOR TAIL RISK HEDGING: "Managing, mitigating, and even exploiting the risk of bad times are the most important concerns in investments. Bhansali puts tail risk hedging and tail risk management under a microscope--pricing, implementation, and showing how we can fine-tune our risk exposures, which are all crucial ways in how we can better weather our bad times." -- ANDREW ANG, Ann F. Kaplan Professor of Business at Columbia University "This book is critical and accessible reading for fiduciaries, financial consultants and investors interested in both theoretical foundations and practical considerations for how to frame hedging downside risk in portfolios. It is a tremendous resource for anyone involved in asset allocation today." -- CHRISTOPHER C. GECZY, Ph.D., Academic Director, Wharton Wealth Management Initiative and Adj. Associate Professor of Finance, The Wharton School "Bhansali's book demonstrates how tail risk hedging can work, be concretely implemented, and lead to higher returns so that it is possible to have your cake and eat it too! A must read for the savvy investor." -- DIDIER SORNETTE, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, ETH Zurich
Book Synopsis (Mis)managing Macroprudential Expectations by : John H. Morris
Download or read book (Mis)managing Macroprudential Expectations written by John H. Morris and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-07-01 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a range of calculative devices, (Mis)managing Macroprudential Expectations explores the methods used by central banks to predict and govern the tail risks that could impact financial stability. Through an in-depth case study, the book utilises empirically-informed theoretical analysis to capture these low-probability and high-impact events, and offers a novel conceptualisation of the role of risk modelling within the macroprudential policy agenda.
Book Synopsis Financial Risk Management by : Vahid Gholampour
Download or read book Financial Risk Management written by Vahid Gholampour and published by Polan LLC. This book was released on 2023-12-29 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a textbook for an undergraduate risk management course.
Book Synopsis Bubble Value at Risk by : Max C. Y. Wong
Download or read book Bubble Value at Risk written by Max C. Y. Wong and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces a powerful new approach to financial risk modeling with proven strategies for its real-world applications The 2008 credit crisis did much to debunk the much touted powers of Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk metric. Unlike most authors on VaR who focus on what it can do, in this book the author looks at what it cannot. In clear, accessible prose, finance practitioners, Max Wong, describes the VaR measure and what it was meant to do, then explores its various failures in the real world of crisis risk management. More importantly, he lays out a revolutionary new method of measuring risks, Bubble Value at Risk, that is countercyclical and offers a well-tested buffer against market crashes. Describes Bubble VaR, a more macro-prudential risk measure proven to avoid the limitations of VaR and by providing a more accurate risk exposure estimation over market cycles Makes a strong case that analysts and risk managers need to unlearn our existing "science" of risk measurement and discover more robust approaches to calculating risk capital Illustrates every key concept or formula with an abundance of practical, numerical examples, most of them provided in interactive Excel spreadsheets Features numerous real-world applications, throughout, based on the author’s firsthand experience as a veteran financial risk analyst
Book Synopsis A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks by : Mr.Nassim N. Taleb
Download or read book A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks written by Mr.Nassim N. Taleb and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.
