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Capital Flows Credit Cycles And Macroprudential Policy
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Book Synopsis Capital Flows, Credit Cycles and Macroprudential Policy by : Yusuf Soner Baskaya
Download or read book Capital Flows, Credit Cycles and Macroprudential Policy written by Yusuf Soner Baskaya and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a considerable number of countries have adopted major changes in their policy frameworks geared towards enhancing financial stability. It is now conventional wisdom that part of the surge in capital flows into emerging market economies (EMEs) was in part a side effect from unconventional policies such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates, which generated a huge amount of global liquidity, as well as low interest rates in advanced economies. These inflows, mostly in the form of portfolio inflows, have in turn led to risks associated with a massive domestic credit expansion in EMEs. These phenomena have raised concerns over potential external imbalances, as well as maturity and currency mismatches between assets and liabilities in the household and corporate sectors.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2844203" Macroprudential Policy.
Book Synopsis Credit Cycles and Macroprudential Policy Framework in Emerging Countries by : Salih Fendoglu
Download or read book Credit Cycles and Macroprudential Policy Framework in Emerging Countries written by Salih Fendoglu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Due to large and unprecedented quantitative easing policies and the prevailing policy uncertainty in advanced economies, many emerging countries have faced large and excessively volatile short-term capital flows during the recent era. If not managed properly and timely, such flows can give rise to an amplified cycle of steady appreciation of the currency, a strong rise in asset prices, looser credit market conditions, and build-up of balance sheet risks. This fragility may eventually trigger a sudden reversal of such flows (often called “sudden stop”), leading to a sharp currency depreciation and a large contraction in credit and output. In turn, to reduce the build-up of financial stability risks and contain 'excessive' cycles in credit market conditions, emerging countries have increasingly utilised macroprudential policy tools.In this paper, we assess how macroprudential policy tools perform in major emerging countries in containing 'excessive' credit cycles. In particular, we first compile an index of policy stance for widely used macroprudential tools, using existing databases on macroprudential policy actions and national sources. We then study whether changes in the policy stance contain 'excessive' cycles in domestic credit, and particularly from the perspective of emerging countries, whether they help contain excessive credit cycles due to fluctuations in capital inflows.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2844203" Macroprudential Policy.
Book Synopsis Capital Flows, Financial Intermediation and Macroprudential Policies by : Matteo Ghilardi
Download or read book Capital Flows, Financial Intermediation and Macroprudential Policies written by Matteo Ghilardi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-21 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops an open-economy DSGE model with an optimizing banking sector to assess the role of capital flows, macro-financial linkages, and macroprudential policies in emerging Asia. The key result is that macro-prudential measures can usefully complement monetary policy. Countercyclical macroprudential polices can help reduce macroeconomic volatility and enhance welfare. The results also demonstrate the importance of capital flows and financial stability for business cycle fluctuations as well as the role of supply side financial accelerator effects in the amplification and propagation of shocks.
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Policies and Capital Controls Over Financial Cycles by : Maria Arakelyan
Download or read book Macroprudential Policies and Capital Controls Over Financial Cycles written by Maria Arakelyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-25 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we assess the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls in supporting financial stability. We construct a large and granular dataset on prudential and capital flow management measures covering 53 countries during 1996-2016. Conditional on a credit boom, we study the impact of these policy measures on the probability of the credit boom ending in a bust. Our analysis suggests that macroprudential tools are effective from this perspective. If credit booms are accompanied by capital flow surges, in addition to macroprudential tools, capital controls on money market instruments including cross-border interbank lending tend to contribute to reducing the likelihood of a credit bust.
Book Synopsis Credit Cycle and Capital Buffers in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic by : Valentina Flamini
Download or read book Credit Cycle and Capital Buffers in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic written by Valentina Flamini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-22 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit is key to support healthy and sustainable economic growth but excess aggregate credit growth can signal the build-up of imbalances and lead to systemic financial crisis. Hence, monitoring the credit cycle is key to identifying vulnerabilities, particularly in emerging markets, which tend to be more exposed to sudden external shocks and reversal in capital flows. We estimate the credit cycle in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic and find that the creadit gap is a powerful predictor of systemic vulnerability in the region. We simulate the activation of the Basel III countercyclical capital buffers and discuss the macroprudential policy implications of the results, arguing that countercyclical macroprudential policies based on the credit gap could prove useful to enhance the resilience of the region’s financial sector but the activation of macroprudential instruments should also be informed by the development of other macrofinancial variables and by expert judgment.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498346693 Total Pages :49 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows—The Role of Macroprudential Policies by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows—The Role of Macroprudential Policies written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-07 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital flows can deliver substantial benefits for countries, but also have the potential to contribute to a buildup of systemic financial risk. Benefits, such as enhanced investment and consumption smoothing, tend to be greater for countries whose financial and institutional development enables them to intermediate capital flows safely. Post-crisis reforms, including the development of macroprudential policies (MPPs), are helping to strengthen the resilience of financial systems including to shocks from capital flows. The Basel III process has improved the quality and level of capital, reduced leverage, and increased liquid asset holdings in financial systems. Drawing on and complementing such international reforms at the national level, robust macroprudential policy frameworks focused on mitigating systemic risk can improve the capacity of a financial system to safely intermediate cross-border flows. Macroprudential frameworks can play an important role over the capital flow cycle, and help members harness the benefits of capital flows. Introducing macroprudential measures (MPMs) preemptively can increase the resilience of the financial system to aggregate shocks, including those arising from capital inflows, and can contain the build-up of systemic vulnerabilities over time, even when such measures are not designed to limit capital flows. While the risks from capital outflows should be handled primarily by macroeconomic policies, a relaxation of MPMs may assist, as long as buffers are in place, in countering financial stresses from outflows. Capital flow liberalization should be supported by broad efforts to strengthen prudential regulation and supervision, including macroprudential policy frameworks. The Fund has two frameworks to help ensure that its advice on MPPs and policies related to capital flows is consistent and tailored to country circumstances. The frameworks (the Macroprudential framework and the Institutional View on capital flows) are consistent in terms of key principles, including avoiding using MPMs and capital flow management measures (CFMs) as a substitute for necessary macroeconomic adjustment. The appropriate classification of measures is important to ensure targeted advice consistent with the two frameworks. The conceptual framework for the assessment of measures laid out in this paper will assist staff in properly identifying MPMs and measures that are designed to limit capital flows and to reduce systemic financial risk stemming from such flows (CFM/MPMs), and thereby ensure the appropriate application of the Fund’s frameworks, so that staff policy advice is consistent and well targeted. The Fund will continue to develop and share expertise in using MPMs, and integrate these findings into its surveillance and technical assistance, which should contribute to building international understanding and experience on these issues.
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Policies to Enhance Financial Stability in the Caucasus and Central Asia by : Padamja Khandelwal
Download or read book Macroprudential Policies to Enhance Financial Stability in the Caucasus and Central Asia written by Padamja Khandelwal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-03-10 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Limited economic diversification has made the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on oil and mining exports as well as remittances. In some countries, tourism and capital flows also play a prominent role in aggregate economic activity.
Book Synopsis Leaning Against the Wind by : Ms.Longmei Zhang
Download or read book Leaning Against the Wind written by Ms.Longmei Zhang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-06 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, macroprudential policy has become an increasingly active policy area. Many countries have adopted it as a tool to safeguard financial stability, in particular to deal with the credit and asset price cycles driven by global capital flows. This paper reviews the use of key macroprudential instruments and capital flow measures in 13 Asian economies and 33 economies in other regions since 2000, and constructs various macroprudential policy indices, aggregating sub-indices on key instruments. Asian economies appear to have made greater use of macroprudential tools, especially housing-related measures, than their counterparts in other regions. The effects of macroprudential policy are then assessed through an event study, cross-country macro panel regressions and bank-level micro panel regressions. The analysis suggests that macroprudential policy and capital flow measures have helped curb housing price growth, equity flows, credit growth, and bank leverage. The instruments that have been particularly effective in this regard include loan-to-value ratio caps, housing tax measures, and foreign currency-related measures.
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Regulation of International Finance by : Dongsoo Kang
Download or read book Macroprudential Regulation of International Finance written by Dongsoo Kang and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2016-09-30 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent events, such as capital flow reversals and banking sector crises, have shaken faith in the widely held belief in the benefits of greater financial integration and financial deepening, which are typical in advanced economies. This book shows that emerging economies have often weathered the storm best despite the supposed burden of ‘weak institutions’. It demonstrates that a better policy framework requires reliable indicators of vulnerability to financial instability, as well as improved policy tools and automatic stabilizers that anticipate and limit the vulnerabilities to financial crises.
Book Synopsis Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World by : Tito Cordella
Download or read book Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World written by Tito Cordella and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-04-04 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, it is hard to find any macroeconomic policy report that does not include some reference to financial stability or systemic risk and the resulting need for “macroprudential policies.” While there is a large and growing literature on macroprudential policies and financial stability, less attention has been paid to how macroprudential policies may facilitate macroeconomic stabilization in the presence of large capital flows. To fill such a gap, this report looks at the use of reserve requirements (RR) as a macroprudential tool. Its findings should be of particular interest to emerging market economists and policymakers that are faced with difficult questions regarding how to cope effectively with volatile capital flows. The analysis builds upon a new dataset on quarterly RR covering a large number of industrial and developing countries for the period 1970-2011. It finds that while no industrial country has resorted to active RR policy since 2004, almost half of developing countries have. Indeed, together with interest rates adjustments and forex interventions, RR seem to be an important component of a trio of policy instruments that developing countries have relied upon to navigate through the boom-bust cycles driven by capital flows. The ultimate reason for resorting to RR lies essentially on the procyclical behavior of the exchange rate over the business cycle in developing countries (with the currency depreciating in bad times and appreciating in good times) that complicates enormously the use of interest rates as a countercyclical instrument. Under such circumstances, RR are an effective instrument that can be used countercyclically when concerns about the effects of interest rates on the exchange rate become paramount. Finally, the report suggests that while, from a macroprudential point of view, the most common macroprudential instruments are equivalent, from a microprudential one they are not. Conflicts may thus arise between the micro- and macro-prudential policy stances. In addition, the overall design of macroprudential policies should follow a careful analysis of the role that different financial frictions play in various environments since similar symptoms can reflect very different underlying forces.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498339514 Total Pages :68 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies - Background Paper by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies - Background Paper written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-27 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides background material to support the Board paper on the interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies. It analyzes the scope for and evidence on interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies. It first reviews a recent conceptual literature on interactive effects that arise when both macroprudential and monetary policy are employed. It goes on to explore the “side effects” of monetary policy on financial stability and their implications for macroprudential policy. It finally addresses the strength of possible effects of macroprudential policies on output and price stability, and draws out implications for the conduct of monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Policy by : R. Barwell
Download or read book Macroprudential Policy written by R. Barwell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-05-07 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis of 2008 is probably the single most important economic event in post-war history. Macroprudential policy is the response to that crisis – a determined attempt to stabilize the financial system. This book explains why it is necessary, who will be responsible for executing this responsibility and how they will go about doing it.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498339174 Total Pages :33 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Policy - An Organizing Framework - Background Paper by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Macroprudential Policy - An Organizing Framework - Background Paper written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-14 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: MCM conducted a survey in December 2010 to take stock of international experiences with financial stability and the evolving macroprudential policy framework. The survey was designed to seek information in three broad areas: the institutional setup for macroprudential policy, the analytical approach to systemic risk monitoring, and the macroprudential policy toolkit. The survey was sent to 63 countries and the European Central Bank (ECB), including all countries in the G-20 and those subject to mandatory Financial Sector Assessment Programs (FSAPs). The target list is designed to cover a broad range of jurisdictions in all regions, but more weight is given to economies that are systemically important (see Annex for details). The response rate is 80 percent. This note provides a summary of the survey’s main findings.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit during Capital Inflow Reversals by : Mr.Nicolas E. Magud
Download or read book Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit during Capital Inflow Reversals written by Mr.Nicolas E. Magud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-16 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document the behavior of macro and credit variables during episodes of capital inflows reversals in economies with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We find that exchange rate flexibility is associated with milder credit growth during the boom but, even though smaller than in more rigid regimes, it cannot shield the economy from a credit reversal. Furthermore, we observe what we dub as a recovery puzzle: credit growth in economies with more flexible exchange rate regimes remains tepid well after the capital flow reversal takes place. This results stress the complementarity of macro-prudential policies with the exchange rate regime. More flexible regimes could help smoothing the credit cycle through capital surchages and dynamic provisioning that build buffers to counteract the credit recovery puzzle. In contrast, more rigid exchange rate regimes would benefit the most from measures to contain excessive credit growth during booms, such as reserve requirements, loan-to-income ratios, and debt-to-income and debt-service-to-income limits.
Book Synopsis Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-06 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) was proposed by the Basel committee to increase the resilience of the banking sector to negative shocks. The interactions between banking sector losses and the real economy highlight the importance of building a capital buffer in periods when systemic risks are rising. Basel III introduces a framework for a time-varying capital buffer on top of the minimum capital requirement and another time-invariant buffer (the conservation buffer). The CCB aims to make banks more resilient against imbalances in credit markets and thereby enhance medium-term prospects of the economy—in good times when system-wide risks are growing, the regulators could impose the CCB which would help the banks to withstand losses in bad times.
Book Synopsis Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries
Book Synopsis Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows by : Mr.R. G Gelos
Download or read book Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
