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Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration
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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration by : Norbert Fiess
Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration written by Norbert Fiess and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In early January 2003, the United States and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua launched official negotiations for the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), a treaty that would expand NAFTA-style trade barrier reductions to Central America. With deeper trade integration between Central America and the United States, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles between Central American countries and the United States. The paper finds a relatively low degree of business cycle synchronization within Central America as well as between Central America and the United States. The business cycle synchronization is expected to increase only modestly with further trade expansion, making the coordination of macroeconomic policies within CAFTA somewhat less of a priority.
Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration by : Norbert Fiess
Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration written by Norbert Fiess and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deeper trade integration between Central America and the United States, as envisaged under the Central American Free Trade Agreement, is likely to lead to closer links between Central American and U.S. business cycles. This article assesses the degree of business cycle synchronization between Central America and the United States-relevant not only for a better understanding of the influence of important trading partners on the business cycle fluctuations in the domestic economy but for evaluating the costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination.
Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration by : Norbert Fiess
Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration written by Norbert Fiess and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization by : Mr.Romain A Duval
Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Book Synopsis Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? by : Eric Monnet
Download or read book Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? written by Eric Monnet and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
Book Synopsis How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-04 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Policy Analysis for Regional Coordination in the ESCWA Region by :
Download or read book Macroeconomic Policy Analysis for Regional Coordination in the ESCWA Region written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Given the low level of economic integration within the ESCWA region, this study examines the case for increased policy coordination and, ultimately, the adoption of a common single currency. Such adoption is likely to succeed if optimum currency area (OCA) conditions are fulfilled. One of the key OCA theory positions is that business cycle symmetry among currency union members is necessary in order to carry out a common monetary policy. On the other hand, asymmetric cycles imply that different areas of the currency union would require different monetary policy responses. In order to achieve this objective, this report assesses the degree of business cycle synchronization in the ESCWA region. This is relevant for the purpose of providing a better understanding of the influence of important trading partners on business cycle fluctuations in the domestic economy. Moreover, it has an important implication in terms of evaluating costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination. Following an evaluation and calculation of measures of intraregional trade (trade intensity) and economic structure differences, this report quantifies the relationship between trade intensity, economic structure and business cycle synchronization; and discusses how trade integration within ESCWA member countries is likely to shape future business cycle patterns within the region.--Publisher's description.
Book Synopsis Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia by : Robert J. Barro
Download or read book Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia written by Robert J. Barro and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-01-04 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia brings together authoritative essays that identify and examine various initiatives to promote economic integration in Asia.
Book Synopsis Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization by : Mr.Jean Imbs
Download or read book Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization written by Mr.Jean Imbs and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper investigates the determinants of business cycles synchronization across regions. It uses both international and intranational data to evaluate the linkages between trade in goods, trade in financial assets, specialization and business cycles synchronization using a system of simultaneous equations. The results are as follows: (i) Simultaneity is important, as both trade and financial openness have a direct and an indirect effect on cycle synchronization. (ii) A variety of alternative measures of financial integration suggest that regions with strong financial links are significantly more synchronized, though they are also more specialized. (iii) Specialization patterns have a sizable effect on business cycles, beyond their reflection of intra-industry trade, and of openness to goods and assets trade. (iv) The estimated role of trade is in line with existing models once intra-industry trade is controlled for. The results relate to a recent strand of international business cycle models with incomplete markets and transport costs, and, on the empirical side, point to an important omission in the usual criteria defining an optimal currency area, namely specialization patterns.
Book Synopsis Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization by : Mr.Romain A Duval
Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration by : Marcus Kappler
Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration written by Marcus Kappler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-07-30 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe by : Silvia Palasca
Download or read book Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe written by Silvia Palasca and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-06-05 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, language: English, abstract: The European Union sets the premises for the appearance of a new phenomenon in the global economic setting: the synchronization of the national business cycles. The aim of this article is to statistically prove the existence of a Euro are business cycle through the study of a classic indicator- the annual change of the GDP and also through the use of foreign trade indicators-the annual changes in exports in imports. Also, it is important, at the end, to choose the best of these indicators or a combination thereof to use as a benchmark for further studies. The empiric study is useful to classify the European countries in clusters according to synchronization, a first step in adopting common policies.
Book Synopsis Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization by : Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Download or read book Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the effect of financial integration on the degree of business cycle synchronization, using a confidential dataset on banks' international bilateral exposure over the past three decades in a panel of twenty developed countries. Financial integration is associated with less synchronized output cycles, in line with the standard theories of output fluctuations. We employ two distinct instrumental variable specifications to identify the one-way effect of integration on synchronization. These specifications reveal that the component of banking integration predicted by legislative-regulatory harmonization policies and the nature of the bilateral exchange rate regime has a negative effect on output synchronization. Our results contrast with those of the cross-sectional studies that show an increase in the degree of business cycles synchronization as a result of financial integration. We reconcile the different results by showing that the cross-sectional estimates suffer from omitted-variable bias.
Book Synopsis Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring by : Mr.Marco Terrones
Download or read book Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring written by Mr.Marco Terrones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.
Book Synopsis Optimal Currency Areas and the Euro, Volume I by : Johannes Kabderian Dreyer
Download or read book Optimal Currency Areas and the Euro, Volume I written by Johannes Kabderian Dreyer and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses business cycles synchronization in the Euro Area (EA), one of the 3 criteria that define Optimal Currency Areas (OCAs). Even before its launch, economists questioned whether the EA has what it takes to become an OCA. The onset of the sovereign debt crisis in 2010 confirmed the challenges relating to its construction. But did the EA change over time, and what key drivers may be necessary in the future to strengthen the common currency?
Book Synopsis How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
Book Synopsis Asian Economic Integration in an Era of Global Uncertainty by : Shiro Armstrong
Download or read book Asian Economic Integration in an Era of Global Uncertainty written by Shiro Armstrong and published by ANU Press. This book was released on 2018-01-08 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Pacific Trade and Development (PAFTAD) conference series has been at the forefront of analysing challenges facing the economies of East Asia and the Pacific since its first meeting in Tokyo in January 1968. The 38th PAFTAD conference met at a key time to consider international economic integration. Earlier in the year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and the United States elected Donald Trump as their next president on the back of an inward-looking ‘America First’ promise. Brexit and President Trump represent a growing, and worrying, trend towards protectionism in the North Atlantic countries that have led the process of globalisation since the end of the Second World War. The chapters in the volume describe the state of play in Asian economic integration but, more importantly, look forward to the region’s future, and the role it might play in defending the global system that has underwritten its historic rise. Asia has the potential to stand as a bulwark against the dual threats of North Atlantic protectionism and slowing trade growth, but collective leadership will be needed regionally and difficult domestic reforms will be required in each country.
