Bias of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (548 download)

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Book Synopsis Bias of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Peter Bofinger

Download or read book Bias of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (249 download)

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Book Synopsis Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Peter Bofinger

Download or read book Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates by : Raj Aggarwal

Download or read book Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates written by Raj Aggarwal and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even though the forward-spot relationship in currency markets is very important for policy makers and for corporate and investment managers, it remains a theoretical and empirical puzzle. In theory the forward rate should be an unbiased forecast of the future spot rate, but this hypothesis has little empirical support. For the currencies of the nine major industrialized countries, this paper documents that in spite of the very high trading volumes in currency markets, consistent with evidence for other asset markets, revisions in the forward rate forecasts of the future spot exchange rate reflect systematic pessimism and under-reaction to new information.

A Systematic Comparison of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts with Judgmental Forecasts of Novices - are There Substantial Differences?

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis A Systematic Comparison of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts with Judgmental Forecasts of Novices - are There Substantial Differences? by : Johannes Leitner

Download or read book A Systematic Comparison of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts with Judgmental Forecasts of Novices - are There Substantial Differences? written by Johannes Leitner and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts of novices. In search of reasonable explanations for the astonishing result, we evaluate the nature of professional and experimental expectations in more detail and find that while professional exchange rate forecasts seem to be biased predictors for the future exchange rates, judgmental forecasts appear to be unbiased. Furthermore, professional forecasters consistently expect a reversal of forgoing exchange rate changes whereas novices expect a continuation of current movements in the short-run and are reversed in the long-run.

Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642004954
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets by : Christian Ullrich

Download or read book Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets written by Christian Ullrich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-05-30 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historical and recent developments at international ?nancial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is dif?cult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid ?nancial markets. Its grade of ef?ciencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and arti?cial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated ?nancial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in dif?cult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.

Measuring Investors' Behavioral Bias from the Movement of Currency Forward Rate

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Investors' Behavioral Bias from the Movement of Currency Forward Rate by : Busakorn Wongwanit

Download or read book Measuring Investors' Behavioral Bias from the Movement of Currency Forward Rate written by Busakorn Wongwanit and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates whether the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rate. The empirical results by regression analysis show that the forward rate cannot predict the future spot exchange rate, particularly at longer periods. Therefore, this study aims to use behavioral interpretations explaining behind the inefficient forecasts of forward rates. The result clearly shows that behavioral interpretation is effective to explain such issues, indicating that all the examined currencies have similar patterns in the forecast revisions processes. Moreover, the evidences of this research also show that the FRUH do almost hold at shorter periods, and the longer periods, the more behavioral biases occur. Also, after controlling for time-varying risk premium in the regression, the markets reflect a more balanced mood over time and approach the FRUH.

Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the Eur/Us-$ Rate

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the Eur/Us-$ Rate by : Peter Bofinger

Download or read book Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the Eur/Us-$ Rate written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the E/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be derived from the behavioural finance literature. According to the anchoring heuristic decision processes are often dominated by available pieces of information even if they are obviously of no relevance.

Are Exchange Rate Expectations Biased?

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Are Exchange Rate Expectations Biased? by : Menzie David Chinn

Download or read book Are Exchange Rate Expectations Biased? written by Menzie David Chinn and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums by : Geert Bekaert

Download or read book On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

On the Reliability of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis On the Reliability of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Robert Schmidt

Download or read book On the Reliability of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Robert Schmidt and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the Ĩ/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be derived from the behavioural finance literature. According to the anchoring heuristic decision processes are often dominated by available pieces of information even if they are obviously of no relevance.

Why is the Forward Exchange Rate Forecast Biased?

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 113 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (642 download)

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Book Synopsis Why is the Forward Exchange Rate Forecast Biased? by : Charles Engel

Download or read book Why is the Forward Exchange Rate Forecast Biased? written by Charles Engel and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts?

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (547 download)

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Book Synopsis Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? by : Peter Bofinger

Download or read book Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Exchange Rate Expectations

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145197020X
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Expectations by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.

Are exchange rate expectations biased? tests for a cross-section of 25 currencies

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Are exchange rate expectations biased? tests for a cross-section of 25 currencies by : Menzie David Chinn

Download or read book Are exchange rate expectations biased? tests for a cross-section of 25 currencies written by Menzie David Chinn and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470012013
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market by : Thomas Oberlechner

Download or read book The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market written by Thomas Oberlechner and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the foreign exchange market by focusing on the people who comprise it. Drawing on the expertise of the very professionals whose decisions help shape the market, Thomas Oberlechner describes the highly interdependent relationship between financial decision makers and news providers, showing that the assumption that the foreign exchange market is purely economic and rational has to be replaced by a more complex market psychology.

Explaining Forecasting Bias : the Case of Real Exchange-rate Variance

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Publisher : Montréal : Dép. de science économique, Université de Montréal
ISBN 13 : 9782920857292
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (572 download)

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Book Synopsis Explaining Forecasting Bias : the Case of Real Exchange-rate Variance by : Leonard Dudley

Download or read book Explaining Forecasting Bias : the Case of Real Exchange-rate Variance written by Leonard Dudley and published by Montréal : Dép. de science économique, Université de Montréal. This book was released on 1986 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Bias and Efficiency in Exchange Rate Forecasting in the United Kingdom

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (464 download)

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Book Synopsis Bias and Efficiency in Exchange Rate Forecasting in the United Kingdom by : Michael Beenstock

Download or read book Bias and Efficiency in Exchange Rate Forecasting in the United Kingdom written by Michael Beenstock and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: