Biased Beliefs About Random Samples

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Biased Beliefs About Random Samples

Author : Daniel J. Benjamin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 65 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Biased Beliefs About Random Samples by : Daniel J. Benjamin

Download or read book Biased Beliefs About Random Samples written by Daniel J. Benjamin and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be balanced between heads and tails. Consistent with the Non-Belief in the Law of Large Numbers (NBLLN), participants underestimated the likelihood that large samples would be close to 50% heads. However, we identify some shortcomings of existing models of LSN, and we find that NBLLN may not be as stable as previous studies suggest. We also find evidence for exact representativeness (ER), whereby people tend to exaggerate the likelihood that samples will (nearly) exactly mirror the underlying odds, as an additional bias beyond LSN. Our within-subject design of asking many different questions about the same data lets us disentangle the biases from possible rational alternative interpretations by showing that the biases lead to inconsistency in answers. Our design also centers on identifying and controlling for bin effects, whereby the probability assigned to outcomes systematically depends on the categories used to elicit beliefs in a way predicted by support theory. The bin effects are large and systematic and affect some results, but we find LSN, NBLLN, and ER even after controlling for them.

Logically Fallacious

Author : Bo Bennett
Publisher : eBookIt.com
ISBN 13 : 1456607375
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (566 download)

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Book Synopsis Logically Fallacious by : Bo Bennett

Download or read book Logically Fallacious written by Bo Bennett and published by eBookIt.com. This book was released on 2012-02-19 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a crash course in effective reasoning, meant to catapult you into a world where you start to see things how they really are, not how you think they are. The focus of this book is on logical fallacies, which loosely defined, are simply errors in reasoning. With the reading of each page, you can make significant improvements in the way you reason and make decisions. Logically Fallacious is one of the most comprehensive collections of logical fallacies with all original examples and easy to understand descriptions, perfect for educators, debaters, or anyone who wants to improve his or her reasoning skills. "Expose an irrational belief, keep a person rational for a day. Expose irrational thinking, keep a person rational for a lifetime." - Bo Bennett This 2021 Edition includes dozens of more logical fallacies with many updated examples.

Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods

Author : Paul J. Lavrakas
Publisher : SAGE Publications
ISBN 13 : 150631788X
Total Pages : 1073 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods by : Paul J. Lavrakas

Download or read book Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods written by Paul J. Lavrakas and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2008-09-12 with total page 1073 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To the uninformed, surveys appear to be an easy type of research to design and conduct, but when students and professionals delve deeper, they encounter the vast complexities that the range and practice of survey methods present. To complicate matters, technology has rapidly affected the way surveys can be conducted; today, surveys are conducted via cell phone, the Internet, email, interactive voice response, and other technology-based modes. Thus, students, researchers, and professionals need both a comprehensive understanding of these complexities and a revised set of tools to meet the challenges. In conjunction with top survey researchers around the world and with Nielsen Media Research serving as the corporate sponsor, the Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods presents state-of-the-art information and methodological examples from the field of survey research. Although there are other "how-to" guides and references texts on survey research, none is as comprehensive as this Encyclopedia, and none presents the material in such a focused and approachable manner. With more than 600 entries, this resource uses a Total Survey Error perspective that considers all aspects of possible survey error from a cost-benefit standpoint. Key Features Covers all major facets of survey research methodology, from selecting the sample design and the sampling frame, designing and pretesting the questionnaire, data collection, and data coding, to the thorny issues surrounding diminishing response rates, confidentiality, privacy, informed consent and other ethical issues, data weighting, and data analyses Presents a Reader′s Guide to organize entries around themes or specific topics and easily guide users to areas of interest Offers cross-referenced terms, a brief listing of Further Readings, and stable Web site URLs following most entries The Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods is specifically written to appeal to beginning, intermediate, and advanced students, practitioners, researchers, consultants, and consumers of survey-based information.

Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2

Author :
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444633960
Total Pages : 530 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2 by :

Download or read book Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2 written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-01-29 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Behavioral Economics, Volume 2, Foundations and Applications offers critical perspectives on theoretical work within behavioral economics, delivering a comprehensive, critical, up-to-date, and accessible review of the field that has always been missing. This literature summary of the conceptual foundations underlying behavioral economics is written by, and for, economists, with chapters covering Intertemporal choice, Reference-dependent preferences, Beliefs, Cognition, Social preferences, Behavioral game theory, Welfare, and Neuroeconomics. - Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent rapid changes in theoretical advances within behavioral economics - Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics - Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics

Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (841 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Understanding Bias in Scientific Practice

Author : Nancy Elizabeth Shaffer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 474 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (55 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Bias in Scientific Practice by : Nancy Elizabeth Shaffer

Download or read book Understanding Bias in Scientific Practice written by Nancy Elizabeth Shaffer and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN 13 : 1429969350
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Applying Quantitative Bias Analysis to Epidemiologic Data

Author : Timothy L. Lash
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387879595
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (878 download)

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Book Synopsis Applying Quantitative Bias Analysis to Epidemiologic Data by : Timothy L. Lash

Download or read book Applying Quantitative Bias Analysis to Epidemiologic Data written by Timothy L. Lash and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-04-14 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bias analysis quantifies the influence of systematic error on an epidemiology study’s estimate of association. The fundamental methods of bias analysis in epi- miology have been well described for decades, yet are seldom applied in published presentations of epidemiologic research. More recent advances in bias analysis, such as probabilistic bias analysis, appear even more rarely. We suspect that there are both supply-side and demand-side explanations for the scarcity of bias analysis. On the demand side, journal reviewers and editors seldom request that authors address systematic error aside from listing them as limitations of their particular study. This listing is often accompanied by explanations for why the limitations should not pose much concern. On the supply side, methods for bias analysis receive little attention in most epidemiology curriculums, are often scattered throughout textbooks or absent from them altogether, and cannot be implemented easily using standard statistical computing software. Our objective in this text is to reduce these supply-side barriers, with the hope that demand for quantitative bias analysis will follow.

Aberrant Beliefs and Reasoning

Author : Niall Galbraith
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1317754816
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (177 download)

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Book Synopsis Aberrant Beliefs and Reasoning by : Niall Galbraith

Download or read book Aberrant Beliefs and Reasoning written by Niall Galbraith and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-09-11 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An aberrant belief is extreme or unusual in nature. In the most serious cases these beliefs cause emotional distress in those who hold them, and typify the core symptoms of psychological disorders. Each of the chapters in this volume seeks to examine the role that biases in reasoning can play in the formation of aberrant beliefs. The chapters consider several conjectures about the role of reasoning in aberrant belief, including the role of the jumping to conclusion bias in delusional beliefs, the probabilistic bias in paranormal beliefs, the role of danger confirming reasoning in phobias, and the controversial notion that people with schizophrenia do not succumb to specific forms of reasoning bias. There are also chapters evaluating different theoretical perspectives, and suggestions for future research. Aberrant Beliefs and Reasoning is the first volume presenting an overview of contemporary research in this growing subject area. It will be essential reading for academics and students in the fields of human reasoning, cognitive psychology and philosophy, and will also be of great interest to clinicians and psychiatrists.

Learning Statistics with R

Author : Daniel Navarro
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 1326189727
Total Pages : 617 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (261 download)

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Book Synopsis Learning Statistics with R by : Daniel Navarro

Download or read book Learning Statistics with R written by Daniel Navarro and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2013-01-13 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Learning Statistics with R" covers the contents of an introductory statistics class, as typically taught to undergraduate psychology students, focusing on the use of the R statistical software and adopting a light, conversational style throughout. The book discusses how to get started in R, and gives an introduction to data manipulation and writing scripts. From a statistical perspective, the book discusses descriptive statistics and graphing first, followed by chapters on probability theory, sampling and estimation, and null hypothesis testing. After introducing the theory, the book covers the analysis of contingency tables, t-tests, ANOVAs and regression. Bayesian statistics are covered at the end of the book. For more information (and the opportunity to check the book out before you buy!) visit http://ua.edu.au/ccs/teaching/lsr or http://learningstatisticswithr.com

Bounded Rationality

Author : Sanjit Dhami
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262543702
Total Pages : 553 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality by : Sanjit Dhami

Download or read book Bounded Rationality written by Sanjit Dhami and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-07-12 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two leaders in the field explore the foundations of bounded rationality and its effects on choices by individuals, firms, and the government. Bounded rationality recognizes that human behavior departs from the perfect rationality assumed by neoclassical economics. In this book, Sanjit Dhami and Cass R. Sunstein explore the foundations of bounded rationality and consider the implications of this approach for public policy and law, in particular for questions about choice, welfare, and freedom. The authors, both recognized as experts in the field, cover a wide range of empirical findings and assess theoretical work that attempts to explain those findings. Their presentation is comprehensive, coherent, and lucid, with even the most technical material explained accessibly. They not only offer observations and commentary on the existing literature but also explore new insights, ideas, and connections. After examining the traditional neoclassical framework, which they refer to as the Bayesian rationality approach (BRA), and its empirical issues, Dhami and Sunstein offer a detailed account of bounded rationality and how it can be incorporated into the social and behavioral sciences. They also discuss a set of models of heuristics-based choice and the philosophical foundations of behavioral economics. Finally, they examine libertarian paternalism and its strategies of “nudges.”

The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis

Author : Sanjit Dhami
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 019885367X
Total Pages : 354 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis by : Sanjit Dhami

Download or read book The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis written by Sanjit Dhami and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020-01-02 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fifth volume of The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis covers behavioral models of learning. It is an essential guide for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students seeking a concise and focused text on this important subject, and examines heuristics and biases in judgment and decision making, mental accounting, and behavioral finance and bounded rationality. This updated extract from Dhami's leading textbook allows the reader to pursue subsections of this vast and rapidly growing field and to tailor their reading to their specific interests in behavioral economics.

Good Research Practice in Non-Clinical Pharmacology and Biomedicine

Author : Anton Bespalov
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030336565
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Good Research Practice in Non-Clinical Pharmacology and Biomedicine by : Anton Bespalov

Download or read book Good Research Practice in Non-Clinical Pharmacology and Biomedicine written by Anton Bespalov and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-01-01 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book, published under a CC BY 4.0 license in the Pubmed indexed book series Handbook of Experimental Pharmacology, provides up-to-date information on best practice to improve experimental design and quality of research in non-clinical pharmacology and biomedicine.

An Elementary Approach To Thinking Under Uncertainty

Author : Ruth Beyth-Marom
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134923864
Total Pages : 161 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (349 download)

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Book Synopsis An Elementary Approach To Thinking Under Uncertainty by : Ruth Beyth-Marom

Download or read book An Elementary Approach To Thinking Under Uncertainty written by Ruth Beyth-Marom and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published in the year 1985, An Elementary Approach To Thinking Under Uncertainty is a valuable contribution to the field of Cognitive Psychology.

Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information

Author : Eugenio Proto
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information by : Eugenio Proto

Download or read book Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information written by Eugenio Proto and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We perform an incentivized experiment designed to assess the accuracy of beliefs about characteristics and decisions. Subjects are asked to declare some specific choices and characteristics with different levels of observability from an external point of view, and typically formed through real world experiences. From the less observable mobile phone purchasing decisions, hypothetical restaurant choices, political views, happiness to the fully observable height and weight; after they are asked to report beliefs on statistics over the same items concerning other individuals living in the same environment. We test two main hypotheses: (i) whether for items not perfectly observable, individuals suffer of some type of bias in these beliefs; (ii) whether this bias would disappear for weight and height, when the information is perfectly available. We find a powerful and ubiquitous bias in perceptions that is "self-centered" in the sense that those at extremes tend to perceive themselves as closer to the middle of the distribution than is the case. Albeit weaker, this bias does not disappear when the information is readily available as in height and weight. We present evidence from our experiment that limited attention and self-serving deception can provide explanations for this bias and present important economic applications.

Anthropic Bias

Author : Nick Bostrom
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136711007
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (367 download)

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Book Synopsis Anthropic Bias by : Nick Bostrom

Download or read book Anthropic Bias written by Nick Bostrom and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-11 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "observation selection effects"--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "have" the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "the anthropic principle," "self-locating belief," or "indexical information"--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room. And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("How many universes are there?", "Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"); evolutionary theory ("How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"); the problem of time's arrow ("Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"); quantum physics ("How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("How to model them?"); even traffic analysis ("Why is the 'next lane' faster?"). Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.

Heuristics and Biases

Author : Thomas Gilovich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139643665
Total Pages : 902 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (396 download)

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Book Synopsis Heuristics and Biases by : Thomas Gilovich

Download or read book Heuristics and Biases written by Thomas Gilovich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-07-08 with total page 902 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is our case strong enough to go to trial? Will interest rates go up? Can I trust this person? Such questions - and the judgments required to answer them - are woven into the fabric of everyday experience. This book, first published in 2002, examines how people make such judgments. The study of human judgment was transformed in the 1970s, when Kahneman and Tversky introduced their 'heuristics and biases' approach and challenged the dominance of strictly rational models. Their work highlighted the reflexive mental operations used to make complex problems manageable and illuminated how the same processes can lead to both accurate and dangerously flawed judgments. The heuristics and biases framework generated a torrent of influential research in psychology - research that reverberated widely and affected scholarship in economics, law, medicine, management, and political science. This book compiles the most influential research in the heuristics and biases tradition since the initial collection of 1982 (by Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky).