Belief, Evidence, and Uncertainty

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319277723
Total Pages : 178 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Belief, Evidence, and Uncertainty by : Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay

Download or read book Belief, Evidence, and Uncertainty written by Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-03-04 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work breaks new ground by carefully distinguishing the concepts of belief, confirmation, and evidence and then integrating them into a better understanding of personal and scientific epistemologies. It outlines a probabilistic framework in which subjective features of personal knowledge and objective features of public knowledge have their true place. It also discusses the bearings of some statistical theorems on both formal and traditional epistemologies while showing how some of the existing paradoxes in both can be resolved with the help of this framework.This book has two central aims: First, to make precise a distinction between the concepts of confirmation and evidence and to argue that failure to recognize this distinction is the source of certain otherwise intractable epistemological problems. The second goal is to demonstrate to philosophers the fundamental importance of statistical and probabilistic methods, at stake in the uncertain conditions in which for the most part we lead our lives, not simply to inferential practice in science, where they are now standard, but to epistemic inference in other contexts as well. Although the argument is rigorous, it is also accessible. No technical knowledge beyond the rudiments of probability theory, arithmetic, and algebra is presupposed, otherwise unfamiliar terms are always defined and a number of concrete examples are given. At the same time, fresh analyses are offered with a discussion of statistical and epistemic reasoning by philosophers. This book will also be of interest to scientists and statisticians looking for a larger view of their own inferential techniques.The book concludes with a technical appendix which introduces an evidential approach to multi-model inference as an alternative to Bayesian model averaging.

Uncertain Belief

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Publisher : Clarendon Press
ISBN 13 : 0191584738
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Belief by : David J. Bartholomew

Download or read book Uncertain Belief written by David J. Bartholomew and published by Clarendon Press. This book was released on 1996-03-14 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The certainties which once underpinned Christian belief have crumbled in a world where science sets the standard for what is true. A rational case for belief must therefore be constructed out of uncertainties. Probability theory provides the tools for measuring and combining uncertainties and is thus the key to progress. This book examines four much debated topics where the logic of uncertain inference can be brought to bear. These are: miracles, the paranormal, God's existence, and the Bible. Given the great diversity of evidence, it is not surprising that opposite conclusions have been drawn by supposedly rational people. An assessment of the state of argument from a probabilistic perspective is overdue. In this book Professor Bartholomew examines and refutes some of the more extravagent claims, evaluates the weight of some of the quantitive evidence, and provides an answer to the fundamental question: is it rational to be a Christian?

Uncertainty

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190871687
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : Kostas Kampourakis

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Kostas Kampourakis and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-07 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientific knowledge is the most solid and robust kind of knowledge that humans have because of the self-correcting character inherent in its own processes. Nevertheless, anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings, making claims that are unsupported by empirical evidence. A common aspect of these claims is the reference to the uncertainties in these areas of research, which leads to the conclusion that science is uncertain about evolution, climate change, and vaccination, among others. The truth of the matter is that while the broad picture is clear, there exist--and will always exist--uncertainties about the details of the respective phenomena. In this book Kampourakis and McCain show that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that does not devalue it. In contrast, uncertainty actually makes science advance because it motivates further research. The first book of its kind, Uncertainty draws on philosophy of science to explain what uncertainty in science is and how it makes science advance. It contrasts evolution, climate change, and vaccination, where the uncertainties are exaggerated, to genetic testing and forensic science where the uncertainties are usually overlooked. Kampourakis and McCain discuss the scientific, psychological, and philosophical aspects of uncertainty in order to explain what it is really about, what kind of problems it actually poses, and why it ultimately makes science advance. Contrary to the public representations of scientific findings and conclusions that produce an intuitive but distorted view of science as certain, we need to understand and learn to live with uncertainty in science.

The Geometry of Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030631532
Total Pages : 850 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis The Geometry of Uncertainty by : Fabio Cuzzolin

Download or read book The Geometry of Uncertainty written by Fabio Cuzzolin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 850 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The principal aim of this book is to introduce to the widest possible audience an original view of belief calculus and uncertainty theory. In this geometric approach to uncertainty, uncertainty measures can be seen as points of a suitably complex geometric space, and manipulated in that space, for example, combined or conditioned. In the chapters in Part I, Theories of Uncertainty, the author offers an extensive recapitulation of the state of the art in the mathematics of uncertainty. This part of the book contains the most comprehensive summary to date of the whole of belief theory, with Chap. 4 outlining for the first time, and in a logical order, all the steps of the reasoning chain associated with modelling uncertainty using belief functions, in an attempt to provide a self-contained manual for the working scientist. In addition, the book proposes in Chap. 5 what is possibly the most detailed compendium available of all theories of uncertainty. Part II, The Geometry of Uncertainty, is the core of this book, as it introduces the author’s own geometric approach to uncertainty theory, starting with the geometry of belief functions: Chap. 7 studies the geometry of the space of belief functions, or belief space, both in terms of a simplex and in terms of its recursive bundle structure; Chap. 8 extends the analysis to Dempster’s rule of combination, introducing the notion of a conditional subspace and outlining a simple geometric construction for Dempster’s sum; Chap. 9 delves into the combinatorial properties of plausibility and commonality functions, as equivalent representations of the evidence carried by a belief function; then Chap. 10 starts extending the applicability of the geometric approach to other uncertainty measures, focusing in particular on possibility measures (consonant belief functions) and the related notion of a consistent belief function. The chapters in Part III, Geometric Interplays, are concerned with the interplay of uncertainty measures of different kinds, and the geometry of their relationship, with a particular focus on the approximation problem. Part IV, Geometric Reasoning, examines the application of the geometric approach to the various elements of the reasoning chain illustrated in Chap. 4, in particular conditioning and decision making. Part V concludes the book by outlining a future, complete statistical theory of random sets, future extensions of the geometric approach, and identifying high-impact applications to climate change, machine learning and artificial intelligence. The book is suitable for researchers in artificial intelligence, statistics, and applied science engaged with theories of uncertainty. The book is supported with the most comprehensive bibliography on belief and uncertainty theory.

When in Doubt, Make Belief

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Author :
Publisher : New World Library
ISBN 13 : 1577319095
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (773 download)

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Book Synopsis When in Doubt, Make Belief by : Jeff Bell

Download or read book When in Doubt, Make Belief written by Jeff Bell and published by New World Library. This book was released on 2011-02-09 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When in doubt, make belief. For author and news anchor Jeff Bell, these are words to live by. Literally. As someone who has spent much of his life battling severe obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), Bell has had to overcome crippling uncertainty few people can imagine. In this powerful follow-up to his critically acclaimed memoir, Rewind, Replay, Repeat, Bell expounds on the principles of applied belief that allowed him to make such a remarkable recovery from this “doubting disease” and the lessons he’s learned while traveling the country talking about doubt. With the help of more than a dozen leading experts, Bell offers readers practical techniques for pushing through the discomfort of uncertainty — whether it stems from OCD or just everyday worries — and demonstrates how a shift from decisions based on fear and doubt to ones based on purpose and service can transform any life. Featuring interviews with Sylvia Boorstein, Patty Duke, Dan Millman, Leon Panetta, Tom Sullivan, and others

Understanding Uncertainty

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470055472
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Uncertainty by : Dennis V. Lindley

Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2

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Author :
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 1483296539
Total Pages : 469 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2 by : L.N. Kanal

Download or read book Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2 written by L.N. Kanal and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This second volume is arranged in four sections: Analysis contains papers which compare the attributes of various approaches to uncertainty. Tools provides sufficient information for the reader to implement uncertainty calculations. Papers in the Theory section explain various approaches to uncertainty. The Applications section describes the difficulties involved in, and the results produced by, incorporating uncertainty into actual systems.

God's Not Dead

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Publisher : HarperChristian + ORM
ISBN 13 : 084996430X
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (499 download)

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Book Synopsis God's Not Dead by : Rice Broocks

Download or read book God's Not Dead written by Rice Broocks and published by HarperChristian + ORM. This book was released on 2013-03-11 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The evidence behind the hit movie! God’s NotDead is apologetics for the twenty-first century, presented in clear and easy-to-follow terms. Learn to defend your faith in a world that’s determined to tear it down. The goal of God’s Not Dead is straightforward: to help readers develop a faith that is real and credible—and strong enough to help others find faith in God. Author Rice Broocks outlines a roadmap that guides seekers to acknowledge the most basic truths of Christianity: There is overwhelming and exciting evidence for God’s existence The God who exists is indeed the God of the Bible God has revealed his nature through his Son, Jesus Christ As shown during the movie, this is the original book on which the main character bases much of his debate points with his atheistic professor. It contains persuasive arguments crafted with tools borrowed from logic, science, philosophy, and scripture that will solidify your faith and provide starting points for discussions with skeptics. With clear, easy-to-follow explanations of key concepts and controversies, God’s NotDead is modern apologetics presented in layman’s terms. You will be empowered not only to talk about your own faith with confidence, but to lead others to a relationship with Jesus.

Uncertainty

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319397567
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : William Briggs

Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.

Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 135162041X
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind by : Shira Elqayam

Download or read book Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind written by Shira Elqayam and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-06-10 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: David E. Over is a leading cognitive scientist and, with his firm grounding in philosophical logic, he also exerts a powerful influence on the psychology of reasoning. He is responsible for not only a large body of empirical work and accompanying theory, but for advancing a major shift in thinking about reasoning, commonly known as the ‘new paradigm’ in the psychology of human reasoning. Over’s signature mix of philosophical logic and experimental psychology has inspired generations of researchers, psychologists, and philosophers alike over more than a quarter of a century. The chapters in this volume, written by a leading group of contributors including a number who helped shape the psychology of reasoning as we know it today, each take their starting point from the key themes of Over’s ground-breaking work. The essays in this collection explore a wide range of central topics—such as rationality, bias, dual processes, and dual systems—as well as contemporary psychological and philosophical theories of conditionals. It concludes with an engaging new chapter, authored by David E. Over himself, which details and analyses the new paradigm psychology of reasoning. This book is therefore important reading for scholars, researchers, and advanced students in psychology, philosophy, and the cognitive sciences, including those who are not familiar with Over’s thought already.

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 1483298566
Total Pages : 445 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence by : Bruce D'Ambrosio

Download or read book Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence written by Bruce D'Ambrosio and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty Proceedings 1991

Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Defects in Materials

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000506096
Total Pages : 179 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Defects in Materials by : Liu Chu

Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Defects in Materials written by Liu Chu and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-12-16 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Defects in Materials investigates the uncertainty quantification methods for stochastic defects in material microstructures. It provides effective supplementary approaches for conventional experimental observation with the consideration of stochastic factors and uncertainty propagation. Pursuing a comprehensive numerical analytical system, this book establishes a fundamental framework for this topic, while emphasizing the importance of stochastic and uncertainty quantification analysis and the significant influence of microstructure defects on the material macro properties. Key Features Consists of two parts: one exploring methods and theories and the other detailing related examples Defines stochastic defects in materials and presents the uncertainty quantification for defect location, size, geometrical configuration, and instability Introduces general Monte Carlo methods, polynomial chaos expansion, stochastic finite element methods, and machine learning methods Provides a variety of examples to support the introduced methods and theories Applicable to MATLAB® and ANSYS software This book is intended for advanced students interested in material defect quantification methods and material reliability assessment, researchers investigating artificial material microstructure optimization, and engineers working on defect influence analysis and nondestructive defect testing.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

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Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Design Optimization Under Uncertainty

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031492080
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (314 download)

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Book Synopsis Design Optimization Under Uncertainty by : Weifei Hu

Download or read book Design Optimization Under Uncertainty written by Weifei Hu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-12-22 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces the fundamentals of probability, statistical, and reliability concepts, the classical methods of uncertainty quantification and analytical reliability analysis, and the state-of-the-art approaches of design optimization under uncertainty (e.g., reliability-based design optimization and robust design optimization). The topics include basic concepts of probability and distributions, uncertainty quantification using probabilistic methods, classical reliability analysis methods, time-variant reliability analysis methods, fundamentals of deterministic design optimization, reliability-based design optimization, robust design optimization, other methods of design optimization under uncertainty, and engineering applications of design optimization under uncertainty.

The Importance of Being Rational

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192546759
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)

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Book Synopsis The Importance of Being Rational by : Errol Lord

Download or read book The Importance of Being Rational written by Errol Lord and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-05-30 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Importance of Being Rational systematically defends a novel reasons-based account of rationality. The book's central thesis is that what it is for one to be rational is to correctly respond to the normative reasons one possesses. Errol Lord defends novel views about what it is to possess reasons and what it is to correctly respond to reasons. He shows that these views not only help to support the book's main thesis, they also help to resolve several important problems that are independent of rationality. The account of possession provides novel contributions to debates about what determines what we ought to do, and the account of correctly responding to reasons provides novel contributions to debates about causal theories of reacting for reasons. After defending views about possession and correctly responding, Lord shows that the account of rationality can solve two difficult problems about rationality. The first is the New Evil Demon problem. The book argues that the account has the resources to show that internal duplicates necessarily have the same rational status. The second problem concerns the deontic significance of rationality. Recently it has been doubted whether we ought to be rational. The ultimate conclusion of the book is that the requirements of rationality are the requirements that we ultimately ought to comply with. If this is right, then rationality is of fundamental importance to our deliberative lives.

Uncertainty and Vagueness in Knowledge Based Systems

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642767028
Total Pages : 495 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (427 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Vagueness in Knowledge Based Systems by : Rudolf Kruse

Download or read book Uncertainty and Vagueness in Knowledge Based Systems written by Rudolf Kruse and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary aim of this monograph is to provide a formal framework for the representation and management of uncertainty and vagueness in the field of artificial intelligence. It puts particular emphasis on a thorough analysis of these phenomena and on the development of sound mathematical modeling approaches. Beyond this theoretical basis the scope of the book includes also implementational aspects and a valuation of existing models and systems. The fundamental ambition of this book is to show that vagueness and un certainty can be handled adequately by using measure-theoretic methods. The presentation of applicable knowledge representation formalisms and reasoning algorithms substantiates the claim that efficiency requirements do not necessar ily require renunciation of an uncompromising mathematical modeling. These results are used to evaluate systems based on probabilistic methods as well as on non-standard concepts such as certainty factors, fuzzy sets or belief functions. The book is intended to be self-contained and addresses researchers and practioneers in the field of knowledge based systems. It is in particular suit able as a textbook for graduate-level students in AI, operations research and applied probability. A solid mathematical background is necessary for reading this book. Essential parts of the material have been the subject of courses given by the first author for students of computer science and mathematics held since 1984 at the University in Braunschweig.

Enrichment of Qualitative Beliefs for Reasoning under Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Infinite Study
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Enrichment of Qualitative Beliefs for Reasoning under Uncertainty by : Xinde Li

Download or read book Enrichment of Qualitative Beliefs for Reasoning under Uncertainty written by Xinde Li and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper deals with enriched qualitative belief functions for reasoning under uncertainty and for combining information expressed in natural language through linguistic labels.