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Behavioral Biases In Forward Rates As Forecasts Of Future Exchange Rates
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Book Synopsis Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates by : Raj Aggarwal
Download or read book Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates written by Raj Aggarwal and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even though the forward-spot relationship in currency markets is very important for policy makers and for corporate and investment managers, it remains a theoretical and empirical puzzle. In theory the forward rate should be an unbiased forecast of the future spot rate, but this hypothesis has little empirical support. For the currencies of the nine major industrialized countries, this paper documents that in spite of the very high trading volumes in currency markets, consistent with evidence for other asset markets, revisions in the forward rate forecasts of the future spot exchange rate reflect systematic pessimism and under-reaction to new information.
Book Synopsis Measuring Investors' Behavioral Bias from the Movement of Currency Forward Rate by : Busakorn Wongwanit
Download or read book Measuring Investors' Behavioral Bias from the Movement of Currency Forward Rate written by Busakorn Wongwanit and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates whether the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rate. The empirical results by regression analysis show that the forward rate cannot predict the future spot exchange rate, particularly at longer periods. Therefore, this study aims to use behavioral interpretations explaining behind the inefficient forecasts of forward rates. The result clearly shows that behavioral interpretation is effective to explain such issues, indicating that all the examined currencies have similar patterns in the forecast revisions processes. Moreover, the evidences of this research also show that the FRUH do almost hold at shorter periods, and the longer periods, the more behavioral biases occur. Also, after controlling for time-varying risk premium in the regression, the markets reflect a more balanced mood over time and approach the FRUH.
Book Synopsis The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework by : Paul De Grauwe
Download or read book The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework written by Paul De Grauwe and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an alternative view of the workings of foreign exchange markets. The authors' modeling approach is based on the idea that agents use simple forecasting rules and switch to those rules that have been shown to be the most profitable in the past. This selection mechanism is based on trial and error and is probably the best possible strategy in an uncertain world, the authors contend. It creates a rich dynamic in the foreign exchange markets and can generate bubbles and crashes. Sensitivity to initial conditions is a pervasive force in De Grauwe and Grimaldi's model. It explains why large exchange-rate changes and volatility clustering occur. It also has important implications for understanding how the news affects the exchange rate. De Grauwe and Grimaldi conclude that news in fundamentals has an unpredictable effect on the exchange rate. Sometimes, they maintain, it alters the exchange rate considerably; at other times it has no effectwhatsoever. The authors also use their model to analyze the effects of official interventions in the foreign exchange market. They show that simple intervention rules of the "leaning-against-the-wind" variety can be effective in eliminating bubbles and crashes in the exchange rate. They further demonstrate how, quite paradoxically, by intervening in the foreign exchange market the central bank makes the market look more efficient. Clear and comprehensive, The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework is a must-have for analysts in foreign exchange markets as well as students of international finance and economics.
Book Synopsis The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle is Persistent by : Raj Aggarwal
Download or read book The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle is Persistent written by Raj Aggarwal and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. It has often been suggested that this puzzle may be resolved by using better statistical procedures that correct for both non-stationarity and nonnormality in the data. We document that even after accounting for non-stationarity, nonnormality, and heteroscedasticity using parametric and non-parametric tests on data for over a quarter century, US dollar forward rates for horizons ranging from one to twelve months for the major currencies, the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the German mark, are generally not rational forecasts of future spot rates. These findings of non-rationality in forward exchange rates for the major currencies continue to be puzzling especially as these foreign exchange markets are some of the most liquid asset markets with very low trading costs.
Book Synopsis On Exchange Rates by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book On Exchange Rates written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float. The essays analyze such issues as exchange rate movements, exchange risk premia, investor expectations of exchange rates and behavior of exchange rates in different systems. Frankel's sound empirical treatment of exchange rate questions shows that it is possible to produce work that is interesting from a purely intellectual viewpoint while contributing to practical knowledge of the real world of international economics and finance.The essays have been organized in a way that provides an introduction to the field of empirical international finance. Part I documents the steady reduction in barriers to international capital movement and leads logically to part II, which explains how exchange rates are determined. Both monetary and portfolio-based models are surveyed in part II, providing a clear transition to the topic of part III; the possible existence of an exchange risk premium. Part IV applies the tools discussed in earlier sections to explore various policy questions related to exchange rate expectations such as whether foreign exchange intervention matters and whether the European monetary system had become credible by 1991. Each part begins with a detailed introduction explaining not only the central issues of that section but also suggesting connections with other essays in the book.Jeffrey A. Frankel is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
Book Synopsis The Forward Exchange Rate Bias by : Ross Levine
Download or read book The Forward Exchange Rate Bias written by Ross Levine and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis On the Efficiency of Forward Foreign Exchange Market by : Bagher Modjtahedi
Download or read book On the Efficiency of Forward Foreign Exchange Market written by Bagher Modjtahedi and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market by : Craig Hakkio
Download or read book Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market written by Craig Hakkio and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-04-21 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1984. This book examines two important dimensions of efficiency in the foreign exchange market using econometric techniques. It responds to the macroeconomics trend to re-examining the theories of exchange rate determination following the erratic behaviour of exchange rates in the late 1970s. In particular the text looks at the relation between spot and forward exchange rates and the term structure of the forward premium, both of which require a joint test of market efficiency and the equilibrium model. Approaches used are the regression of spot rates on lagged forward rates and an explicit time series analysis of the spot and forward rates, using data from Canada, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) by : Kathryn Dominguez
Download or read book Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) written by Kathryn Dominguez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.
Book Synopsis Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies by : Raj Aggarwal
Download or read book Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies written by Raj Aggarwal and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has been suggested that prior studies that have puzzlingly found forward rates to be inefficient and biased forecasts of future spot rates may be limited by inadequate statistical methodologies. Using an improved statistical methodology that accounts for both non-stationarity and non-normality in exchange rates, we unfortunately reconfirm that U.S. dollar forward rates for horizons ranging from one to twelve months for the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the German mark over the period 1973-1998 are generally not efficient or rational forecasts of future spot rates. However, as one bright spot, we cannot reject efficiency and rationality for the U.S. dollar forward rate for the Canadian dollar.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception by : Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception written by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coeffcients in the 'Fama' regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the U.S., these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates.
Book Synopsis Econometrics as a Con Art by : Imad A. Moosa
Download or read book Econometrics as a Con Art written by Imad A. Moosa and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imad Moosa challenges convention with this comprehensive and compelling critique of econometrics, condemning the common practices of misapplied statistical methods in both economics and finance.
Book Synopsis Controversies in Economics and Finance by : Imad A. Moosa
Download or read book Controversies in Economics and Finance written by Imad A. Moosa and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2020-11-27 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this fascinating book, Imad A. Moosa challenges existing preconceptions surrounding normative economics, arguing that what some economists see as undisputed facts of life may be myths caused by dogmatic thinking. Plausible explanations are suggested for puzzles in various areas of economics and finance, such as the home bias puzzle, the PPP puzzle and the presidential puzzle. Controversies in Economics and Finance is a thought-provoking and stimulating read that exposes common flaws in economic analysis. It will be of great benefit to academics, graduate students and policy-makers looking to understand the limits of economic analysis.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) by : Kathryn Dominguez
Download or read book Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) written by Kathryn Dominguez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.
Download or read book Multinational Finance Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics by : Martin D D Evans
Download or read book Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics written by Martin D D Evans and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2017-06-28 with total page 791 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects my scholarly research on the behavior of foreign exchange rates conducted over the past twenty-five years. The collection includes papers that study the behavior of exchange rates from the traditional macroeconomic and newer microstructure perspectives. The former perspective considers the linkages between the macro economy and currency prices in an effort to understand the behavior of exchange rates over quarters, years and decades. By contrast, the microstructure perspective considers how the details of currency trading affect how macroeconomic information becomes embedded in currency prices, a process which drives exchange-rates over intraday horizons. The book also contains papers with a hybrid perspective that consider the details of currency trading and macroeconomic linkages in an effort to understand exchange-rate dynamics across all horizons.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
