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Bayesian Model Estimation And Selection For The Weekly Colombian Exchange Rate
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Book Synopsis Exchange Rates in South America's Emerging Markets by : Luis Molinas Sosa
Download or read book Exchange Rates in South America's Emerging Markets written by Luis Molinas Sosa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.
Book Synopsis Subsidy-led Growth in a Fortified Port by : Adolfo Meisel Roca
Download or read book Subsidy-led Growth in a Fortified Port written by Adolfo Meisel Roca and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484302192 Total Pages :47 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Colombia by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Colombia written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-31 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Colombia: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition by : Andrew Gelman
Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
Book Synopsis Colombia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Risk Analysis by : International Monetary
Download or read book Colombia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Risk Analysis written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-03 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) risk analysis work was conducted in the aftermath of the initial COVID shock and subsequent lockdowns, and while a strong economic recovery was underway in Colombia during 2021. Given the persistent uncertainty around the evolution of the COVID-19 virus, and for the trajectory of the economic recovery, the outlook remained subject to significant revisions throughout the year. While the workstreams took the latest macroeconomic and supervisory data updates into account as much as possible for the various analyses, the test results and their implications should be interpreted with caution due to high uncertainty around the central projections and downside risks.
Book Synopsis Colombia by : International Monetary
Download or read book Colombia written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-23 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Colombia: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis Handbook of International Trade and Transportation by : Bruce A. Blonigen
Download or read book Handbook of International Trade and Transportation written by Bruce A. Blonigen and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018-01-26 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International trade has grown rapidly over the past half century, accommodated by the transportation industry through concomitant growth and technological change. But while the connection between transport and trade flows is clear, the academic literature often looks at these two issues separately. This Handbook is unique in pulling together the key insights of each field while highlighting what we know about their intersection and ideas for future research in this relatively unexamined but growing area of study.
Book Synopsis Global Trade and the Dollar by : Ms.Emine Boz
Download or read book Global Trade and the Dollar written by Ms.Emine Boz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-13 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
Book Synopsis Global Trade and the Dollar by : Ms.Emine Boz
Download or read book Global Trade and the Dollar written by Ms.Emine Boz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-13 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475571933 Total Pages :234 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2014 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2014 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-08 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014–15, according to the April 2014 WEO, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies. Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Emerging market economy policymakers must adopt measures to changing fundamentals, facilitate external adjustment, further monetary policy tightening, and carry out structural reforms. The report includes a chapter that analyzes the causes of worldwide decreases in real interest rates since the 1980s and concludes that global rates can be expected to rise in the medium term, but only moderately. Another chapter examines factors behind the fluctuations in emerging market economies’ growth and concludes that strong growth in China played a key role in buffering the effects of the global financial crisis in these economies.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475552645 Total Pages :145 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Argentina by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Argentina written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Argentina’s investment rate which was well below the average of Latin American countries and that of a peer group of advanced and emerging market countries, with a larger gap in private investment. Raising investment prospects would be essential to boost economic activity. The administration that took office in December 2015 has emphasized the importance of generating an investor friendly environment that allows Argentina to recover some of the growth opportunities lost over the last few decades. Although quantifying the capital accumulation gap is a clearly a difficult task, one way of doing so is to look at the difference between Argentina’s capital-labor ratio and that of the selected peer group of countries. Argentina’s investment rates and capital-output ratios are also compared with estimates of their steady state values derived from standard neoclassical growth models. Argentina’s investment rate would need to increase significantly to eliminate the capital accumulation gap built during the last two decades, and this could significantly accelerate GDP growth.
Author :Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico Publisher : ISBN 13 :9789291319626 Total Pages :0 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (196 download)
Book Synopsis Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs by : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico
Download or read book Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dissertation Abstracts International by :
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2007-10 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Introduction to Information Retrieval by : Christopher D. Manning
Download or read book Introduction to Information Retrieval written by Christopher D. Manning and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-07-07 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Class-tested and coherent, this textbook teaches classical and web information retrieval, including web search and the related areas of text classification and text clustering from basic concepts. It gives an up-to-date treatment of all aspects of the design and implementation of systems for gathering, indexing, and searching documents; methods for evaluating systems; and an introduction to the use of machine learning methods on text collections. All the important ideas are explained using examples and figures, making it perfect for introductory courses in information retrieval for advanced undergraduates and graduate students in computer science. Based on feedback from extensive classroom experience, the book has been carefully structured in order to make teaching more natural and effective. Slides and additional exercises (with solutions for lecturers) are also available through the book's supporting website to help course instructors prepare their lectures.
Book Synopsis The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates by : Richard K. Lyons
Download or read book The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates written by Richard K. Lyons and published by MIT Press (MA). This book was released on 2001 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explaining the puzzling behavior of exchange rates using models from microstructure finance and data from electronic trading.
Book Synopsis American Doctoral Dissertations by :
Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
