Backtesting Value At Risk Based On Tail Losses

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Backtesting Value-at-Risk Based on Tail Losses

Author : Woon K. Wong
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Backtesting Value-at-Risk Based on Tail Losses by : Woon K. Wong

Download or read book Backtesting Value-at-Risk Based on Tail Losses written by Woon K. Wong and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme losses caused by leverage and financial derivatives highlight the need to backtest Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on sizes of tail losses, for the risk measure disregards losses beyond the VaR boundary and there is no formal statistical analysis required for stress testing. While Basel II backtests VaR by counting the number of exceptions, this paper proposes to use saddlepoint technique to backtest VaR by summing the tail losses. Monte Carlo simulations show that the technique is very accurate and powerful even for small samples. The proposed backtest finds substantial downside tail risks in S&P 500, and that risk models which account for jumps, skewed and fat-tailed distributions fail to capture the tail risk during the 1987 stock market crash. Finally, the saddlepoint technique is used to derive a multiplication factor for risk capital requirement that is responsive to sizes of tail losses.

Backtesting the Tail Risk of VaR in Holding US Dollars

Author : Woon K. Wong
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Backtesting the Tail Risk of VaR in Holding US Dollars by : Woon K. Wong

Download or read book Backtesting the Tail Risk of VaR in Holding US Dollars written by Woon K. Wong and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The US dollar is the most widely held currency in the world. In recent years, however, it suffered huge depreciation. In this paper, various risk models are used to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) in holding the currency. Being a quantile measure, VaR disregards valuable information conveyed by the sizes of tail losses. As a result, there is tail risk in the use of VaR in practice. Saddlepoint technique is used to backtest tail risk of VaR by summing all the tail losses. Substantial downside tail risks are detected in the US currency, and Asymmetric Power ARCH with normal inverse Gaussian innovation is found capable of capturing such risks.

Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall

Author : Simona Roccioletti
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 365811908X
Total Pages : 155 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (581 download)

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Book Synopsis Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall by : Simona Roccioletti

Download or read book Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall written by Simona Roccioletti and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-04 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.

Sample Size, Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation

Author : Laura García Jorcano
Publisher : Ed. Universidad de Cantabria
ISBN 13 : 8481029122
Total Pages : 162 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Sample Size, Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation by : Laura García Jorcano

Download or read book Sample Size, Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation written by Laura García Jorcano and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2020-02-24 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis analyzes the effect that the sample size, the asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the leverage in their volatility have on the estimation and forecasting of market risk in financial assets. The goal is to compare the performance of a variety of models for the estimation and forecasting of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for a set of assets of different nature: market indexes, individual stocks, bonds, exchange rates, and commodities. The three chapters of the thesis address issues of greatest interest for the measurement of risk in financial institutions and, therefore, for the supervision of risks in the financial system. They deal with technical issues related to the implementation of the Basel Committee's guidelines on some aspects of which very little is known in the academic world and in the specialized financial sector. In the first chapter, a numerical correction is proposed on the values usually estimatedwhen there is little statistical information, either because it is a financial asset (bond, investment fund...) recently created or issued, or because the nature or the structure of the asset or portfolio have recently changed. The second chapter analyzes the relevance of different aspects of risk modeling. The third and last chapter provides a characterization of the preferable methodology to comply with Basel requirements related to the backtesting of the Expected Shortfall.

Rethinking Valuation and Pricing Models

Author : Carsten Wehn
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0124158757
Total Pages : 658 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (241 download)

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Book Synopsis Rethinking Valuation and Pricing Models by : Carsten Wehn

Download or read book Rethinking Valuation and Pricing Models written by Carsten Wehn and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 658 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely acknowledged that many financial modelling techniques failed during the financial crisis, and in our post-crisis environment many techniques are being reconsidered. This single volume provides a guide to lessons learned for practitioners and a reference for academics. Including reviews of traditional approaches, real examples, and case studies, contributors consider portfolio theory; methods for valuing equities and equity derivatives, interest rate derivatives, and hybrid products; and techniques for calculating risks and implementing investment strategies. Describing new approaches without losing sight of their classical antecedents, this collection of original articles presents a timely perspective on our post-crisis paradigm. Highlights pre-crisis best classical practices, identifies post-crisis key issues, and examines emerging approaches to solving those issues Singles out key factors one must consider when valuing or calculating risks in the post-crisis environment Presents material in a homogenous, practical, clear, and not overly technical manner

Risk Management

Author : Michael Frenkel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540269932
Total Pages : 842 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Management by : Michael Frenkel

Download or read book Risk Management written by Michael Frenkel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-06 with total page 842 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dealing with all aspects of risk management that have undergone significant innovation in recent years, this book aims at being a reference work in its field. Different to other books on the topic, it addresses the challenges and opportunities facing the different risk management types in banks, insurance companies, and the corporate sector. Due to the rising volatility in the financial markets as well as political and operational risks affecting the business sector in general, capital adequacy rules are equally important for non-financial companies. For the banking sector, the book emphasizes the modifications implied by the Basel II proposal. The volume has been written for academics as well as practitioners, in particular finance specialists. It is unique in bringing together such a wide array of experts and correspondingly offers a complete coverage of recent developments in risk management.

Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2011 Edition

Author :
Publisher : ScholarlyEditions
ISBN 13 : 1464966478
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (649 download)

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Book Synopsis Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2011 Edition by :

Download or read book Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2011 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2012-01-09 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2011 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ eBook that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Finance, Business, and Economics Research. The editors have built Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2011 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Finance, Business, and Economics Research in this eBook to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2011 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Value at Risk, 3rd Ed.

Author : Philippe Jorion
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 0071736921
Total Pages : 624 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis Value at Risk, 3rd Ed. by : Philippe Jorion

Download or read book Value at Risk, 3rd Ed. written by Philippe Jorion and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2006-11-09 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Value at Risk has become the industry standard in risk management. Now in its Third Edition, this international bestseller addresses the fundamental changes in the field that have occurred across the globe in recent years. Philippe Jorion provides the most current information needed to understand and implement VAR-as well as manage newer dimensions of financial risk. Featured updates include: An increased emphasis on operational risk Using VAR for integrated risk management and to measure economic capital Applications of VAR to risk budgeting in investment management Discussion of new risk-management techniques, including extreme value theory, principal components, and copulas Extensive coverage of the recently finalized Basel II capital adequacy rules for commercial banks, integrated throughout the book A major new feature of the Third Edition is the addition of short questions and exercises at the end of each chapter, making it even easier to check progress. Detailed answers are posted on the companion web site www.pjorion.com/var/. The web site contains other materials, including additional questions that course instructors can assign to their students. Jorion leaves no stone unturned, addressing the building blocks of VAR from computing and backtesting models to forecasting risk and correlations. He outlines the use of VAR to measure and control risk for trading, for investment management, and for enterprise-wide risk management. He also points out key pitfalls to watch out for in risk-management systems. The value-at-risk approach continues to improve worldwide standards for managing numerous types of risk. Now more than ever, professionals can depend on Value at Risk for comprehensive, authoritative counsel on VAR, its application, and its results-and to keep ahead of the curve.

Market Risk Analysis, Value at Risk Models

Author : Carol Alexander
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470997885
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Risk Analysis, Value at Risk Models by : Carol Alexander

Download or read book Market Risk Analysis, Value at Risk Models written by Carol Alexander and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-02-09 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by leading market risk academic, Professor Carol Alexander, Value-at-Risk Models forms part four of the Market Risk Analysis four volume set. Building on the three previous volumes this book provides by far the most comprehensive, rigorous and detailed treatment of market VaR models. It rests on the basic knowledge of financial mathematics and statistics gained from Volume I, of factor models, principal component analysis, statistical models of volatility and correlation and copulas from Volume II and, from Volume III, knowledge of pricing and hedging financial instruments and of mapping portfolios of similar instruments to risk factors. A unifying characteristic of the series is the pedagogical approach to practical examples that are relevant to market risk analysis in practice. All together, the Market Risk Analysis four volume set illustrates virtually every concept or formula with a practical, numerical example or a longer, empirical case study. Across all four volumes there are approximately 300 numerical and empirical examples, 400 graphs and figures and 30 case studies many of which are contained in interactive Excel spreadsheets available from the the accompanying CD-ROM . Empirical examples and case studies specific to this volume include: Parametric linear value at risk (VaR)models: normal, Student t and normal mixture and their expected tail loss (ETL); New formulae for VaR based on autocorrelated returns; Historical simulation VaR models: how to scale historical VaR and volatility adjusted historical VaR; Monte Carlo simulation VaR models based on multivariate normal and Student t distributions, and based on copulas; Examples and case studies of numerous applications to interest rate sensitive, equity, commodity and international portfolios; Decomposition of systematic VaR of large portfolios into standard alone and marginal VaR components; Backtesting and the assessment of risk model risk; Hypothetical factor push and historical stress tests, and stress testing based on VaR and ETL.

Financial Risk Forecasting

Author : Jon Danielsson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119977118
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Measuring Market Risk

Author : Kevin Dowd
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470855215
Total Pages : 395 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Market Risk by : Kevin Dowd

Download or read book Measuring Market Risk written by Kevin Dowd and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-28 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most up-to-date resource on market risk methodologies Financial professionals in both the front and back office require an understanding of market risk and how to manage it. Measuring Market Risk provides this understanding with an overview of the most recent innovations in Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Tail Loss (ETL) estimation. This book is filled with clear and accessible explanations of complex issues that arise in risk measuring-from parametric versus nonparametric estimation to incre-mental and component risks. Measuring Market Risk also includes accompanying software written in Matlab—allowing the reader to simulate and run the examples in the book.

Enterprise Risk Management

Author : James Lam
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118834437
Total Pages : 501 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (188 download)

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Book Synopsis Enterprise Risk Management by : James Lam

Download or read book Enterprise Risk Management written by James Lam and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-01-06 with total page 501 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fully revised second edition focused on the best practices of enterprise risk management Since the first edition of Enterprise Risk Management: From Incentives to Controls was published a decade ago, much has changed in the worlds of business and finance. That's why James Lam has returned with a new edition of this essential guide. Written to reflect today's dynamic market conditions, the Second Edition of Enterprise Risk Management: From Incentives to Controls clearly puts this discipline in perspective. Engaging and informative, it skillfully examines both the art as well as the science of effective enterprise risk management practices. Along the way, it addresses the key concepts, processes, and tools underlying risk management, and lays out clear strategies to manage what is often a highly complex issue. Offers in-depth insights, practical advice, and real-world case studies that explore the various aspects of ERM Based on risk management expert James Lam's thirty years of experience in this field Discusses how a company should strive for balance between risk and return Failure to properly manage risk continues to plague corporations around the world. Don't let it hurt your organization. Pick up the Second Edition of Enterprise Risk Management: From Incentives to Controls and learn how to meet the enterprise-wide risk management challenge head on, and succeed.

International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards

Author :
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 9291316695
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (913 download)

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Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Risk Management and Shareholders' Value in Banking

Author : Andrea Sironi
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470510735
Total Pages : 808 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Management and Shareholders' Value in Banking by : Andrea Sironi

Download or read book Risk Management and Shareholders' Value in Banking written by Andrea Sironi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-04-30 with total page 808 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an integrated framework for risk measurement, capital management and value creation in banks. Moving from the measurement of the risks facing a bank, it defines criteria and rules to support a corporate policy aimed at maximizing shareholders' value. Parts I - IV discuss different risk types (including interest rate, market, credit and operational risk) and how to assess the amount of capital they absorb by means of up-to-date, robust risk-measurement models. Part V surveys regulatory capital requirements: a special emphasis is given to the Basel II accord, discussing its economic foundations and managerial implications. Part VI presents models and techniques to calibrate the amount of economic capital at risk needed by the bank, to fine-tune its composition, to allocate it to risk-taking units, to estimate the "fair" return expected by shareholders, to monitor the value creation process. Risk Management and Shareholders' Value in Banking includes: * Value at Risk, Monte Carlo models, Creditrisk+, Creditmetrics and much more * formulae for risk-adjusted loan pricing and risk-adjusted performance measurement * extensive, hands-on Excel examples are provided on the companion website www.wiley.com/go/rmsv * a complete, up-to-date introduction to Basel II * focus on capital allocation, Raroc, EVA, cost of capital and other value-creation metrics

Risk and Uncertainty

Author : Svetlozar T. Rachev
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111808618X
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk and Uncertainty by : Svetlozar T. Rachev

Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-22 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization The finance industry is seeing increased interest in new risk measures and techniques for portfolio optimization when parameters of the model are uncertain. This groundbreaking book extends traditional approaches of risk measurement and portfolio optimization by combining distributional models with risk or performance measures into one framework. Throughout these pages, the expert authors explain the fundamentals of probability metrics, outline new approaches to portfolio optimization, and discuss a variety of essential risk measures. Using numerous examples, they illustrate a range of applications to optimal portfolio choice and risk theory, as well as applications to the area of computational finance that may be useful to financial engineers. They also clearly show how stochastic models, risk assessment, and optimization are essential to mastering risk, uncertainty, and performance measurement. Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization provides quantitative portfolio managers (including hedge fund managers), financial engineers, consultants, and academic researchers with answers to the key question of which risk measure is best for any given problem.

An Introduction to Market Risk Measurement

Author : Kevin Dowd
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470855207
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis An Introduction to Market Risk Measurement by : Kevin Dowd

Download or read book An Introduction to Market Risk Measurement written by Kevin Dowd and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-03-14 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes a CD-ROM that contains Excel workbooks and a Matlab manual and software. Covers the subject without advanced or exotic material.

Quantitative Investment Analysis

Author : CFA Institute
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119743621
Total Pages : 947 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantitative Investment Analysis by : CFA Institute

Download or read book Quantitative Investment Analysis written by CFA Institute and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-09-16 with total page 947 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether you are a novice investor or an experienced practitioner, Quantitative Investment Analysis, 4th Edition has something for you. Part of the CFA Institute Investment Series, this authoritative guide is relevant the world over and will facilitate your mastery of quantitative methods and their application in todays investment process. This updated edition provides all the statistical tools and latest information you need to be a confident and knowledgeable investor. This edition expands coverage of Machine Learning algorithms and the role of Big Data in an investment context along with capstone chapters in applying these techniques to factor modeling, risk management and backtesting and simulation in investment strategies. The authors go to great lengths to ensure an even treatment of subject matter, consistency of mathematical notation, and continuity of topic coverage that is critical to the learning process. Well suited for motivated individuals who learn on their own, as well as a general reference, this complete resource delivers clear, example-driven coverage of a wide range of quantitative methods. Inside you'll find: Learning outcome statements (LOS) specifying the objective of each chapter A diverse variety of investment-oriented examples both aligned with the LOS and reflecting the realities of todays investment world A wealth of practice problems, charts, tables, and graphs to clarify and reinforce the concepts and tools of quantitative investment management You can choose to sharpen your skills by furthering your hands-on experience in the Quantitative Investment Analysis Workbook, 4th Edition (sold separately)—an essential guide containing learning outcomes and summary overview sections, along with challenging problems and solutions.