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Assessing Irregular Warfare A Framework For Intelligence Analysis
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Book Synopsis Assessing Irregular Warfare by : Eric V. Larson
Download or read book Assessing Irregular Warfare written by Eric V. Larson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2009-01-08 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for IW intelligence curriculum development efforts. Defines IW in terms of two stylized situations: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. Provides a detailed review of IW-relevant defense policy and strategy documents and a list of relevant doctrinal publications.
Book Synopsis Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis by :
Download or read book Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this study was to assist the Department of the Army's National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular warfare (IW). To do this, RAND was to develop an analytic framework for IW that could be used as the basis for an educational and training curriculum that would enhance NGIC analysts' capabilities for assessing IW situations. The outcomes of IW situations depend on both the level of one's understanding of the population and the deftness with which non-military and indirect means are employed to influence and build legitimacy. Accordingly, the study team's principal efforts were devoted to developing an analytic framework for understanding IW situations, whether population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) or counterterrorism, that focused on "irregular features" of the operating environment -- that is, the central environmental and operational variables whose interplay determines the overall trajectory of an irregular conflict toward either success or failure. The central idea of the framework is that it is an analytic procedure by which an analyst, beginning with a generic and broad understanding of a conflict and its environment and then engaging in successively more-focused and more-detailed analyses of selective topics, can develop an understanding of the conflict and can uncover the key drivers behind such phenomena as orientation toward principal protagonists in the conflict, mobilization, and recruitment, and choice of political bargaining or violence. Put another way, the framework allows the analyst to efficiently decompose and understand the features of IW situations -- whether they are of the population-centric or the counterterrorism variety -- by illuminating areas in which additional detailed analysis could matter and areas in which it probably will not matter. This analytic procedure involves three main activities and eight discrete steps.
Book Synopsis Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies by : Walt L. Perry
Download or read book Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies written by Walt L. Perry and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that U.S. forces need more-effective techniques and procedures to conduct counterinsurgency. It is likely that U.S. forces will face similar, irregular warfare tactics from future enemies that are unwilling to engage in conventional combat with U.S. forces. This monograph examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies. The authors examine the stages of an insurgency and discuss the kinds of intelligence that are needed at each stage. A number of techniques -- pattern discernment and predictive analysis, for example -- appear to show promise of being useful to intelligence analysis. The authors also explore two closely connected methods in depth to examine the interactions between friendly and enemy forces: game theory and change detection." -- p. [4] of cover.
Book Synopsis Distributed Data Fusion for Network-Centric Operations by : David Hall
Download or read book Distributed Data Fusion for Network-Centric Operations written by David Hall and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the recent proliferation of service-oriented architectures (SOA), cloud computing technologies, and distributed-interconnected systems, distributed fusion is taking on a larger role in a variety of applications—from environmental monitoring and crisis management to intelligent buildings and defense. Drawing on the work of leading experts around the world, Distributed Data Fusion for Network-Centric Operations examines the state of the art of data fusion in a distributed sensing, communications, and computing environment. Get Insight into Designing and Implementing Data Fusion in a Distributed Network Addressing the entirety of information fusion, the contributors cover everything from signal and image processing, through estimation, to situation awareness. In particular, the work offers a timely look at the issues and solutions involving fusion within a distributed network enterprise. These include critical design problems, such as how to maintain a pedigree of agents or nodes that receive information, provide their contribution to the dataset, and pass to other network components. The book also tackles dynamic data sharing within a network-centric enterprise, distributed fusion effects on state estimation, graph-theoretic methods to optimize fusion performance, human engineering factors, and computer ontologies for higher levels of situation assessment. A comprehensive introduction to this emerging field and its challenges, the book explores how data fusion can be used within grid, distributed, and cloud computing architectures. Bringing together both theoretical and applied research perspectives, this is a valuable reference for fusion researchers and practitioners. It offers guidance and insight for those working on the complex issues of designing and implementing distributed, decentralized information fusion.
Download or read book Assessing War written by Leo J. Blanken and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-15 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's protracted asymmetrical conflicts confuse efforts to measure progress, often inviting politics and wishful thinking to replace objective evaluation. In Assessing War, military historians, social scientists, and military officers explore how observers have analyzed the trajectory of war in American conflicts from the Seven Years’ War through the war in Afghanistan. Drawing on decades of acquired expertise, the contributors examine wartime assessment in both theory and practice and, through alternative dimensions of assessment such as justice and proportionality, the war of ideas and economics. This group of distinguished authors grapples with both conventional and irregular wars and emerging aspects of conflict—such as cyberwar and nation building—that add to the complexities of the modern threat environment. The volume ends with recommendations for practitioners on best approaches while offering sobering conclusions about the challenges of assessing war without politicization or self-delusion. Covering conflicts from the eighteenth century to today, Assessing War blends focused advice and a uniquely broad set of case studies to ponder vital questions about warfare's past—and its future. The book includes a foreword by Gen. George W. Casey Jr. (USA, Ret.), former chief of staff of the US Army and former commander, Multi-National Force–Iraq.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author :Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith Publisher :Edinburgh University Press ISBN 13 :1474466370 Total Pages :307 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (744 download)
Book Synopsis Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis by : Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith
Download or read book Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis written by Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith and published by Edinburgh University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Book Synopsis Understanding Proto-Insurgencies by : Daniel Byman
Download or read book Understanding Proto-Insurgencies written by Daniel Byman and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007-09-18 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines how terrorist groups transition to insurgencies and identifies ways to combat proto-insurgents. It describes the steps groups must take to gain the size and capabilities of insurgencies, the role of outside state support, and actions governments can take to prevent potential insurgencies from blossoming. The most effective U.S. counterinsurgency action would be to anticipate the possibility of insurgencies developing; it could then provide training and advisory programs and inhibit outsides support.
Book Synopsis Irregular Warfare the Future Military Strategy for Small States by : Sándor Fabian
Download or read book Irregular Warfare the Future Military Strategy for Small States written by Sándor Fabian and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-02-17 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A thought provoking essay on the possible implications of irregular warfare in national military strategy.
Book Synopsis Intelligence Engineering by : Adam D. M. Svendsen
Download or read book Intelligence Engineering written by Adam D. M. Svendsen and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2017-03-01 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligence continues to undergo significant changes at a remarkable pace, notably developments related to “Big Data,” surveillance, and cyber. Intelligence today involves multiagency, multinational, multidisciplinary, multidomain information sharing and sense-making, conducted by commerce, academic, government, civil society, media, law enforcement, military, and nongovernmental/nonprofit organizations. Increasingly complex systems, including interrelated technical dimensions, are central to modern defense systems. Intelligence Engineering: Operating Beyond the Conventional provides a new framework for generating analysis, exploring how systems to system-of-systems can be harnessed both for and into the future. Intelligence engineering (IE) involves the use of scientific and technical knowledge to artfully create, operate, maintain, and dismantle complex devices, machines, structures, systems, and processes that support and/or disrupt human endeavor occurring in the intelligence context. Spanning both human and technical intelligence realms, IE includes the collection and analysis of information that is of military and/or political value, and that relates to international relations, defense, and national security. Strategic Futures, risk management across to resilience concerns, are similarly engaged.
Book Synopsis Irregular Warfare Special Study by :
Download or read book Irregular Warfare Special Study written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides study results, research, analysis, conclusions, and recommendations concerning doctrinal implications of Irregular Warfare (IW) as introduced/described in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (2006 QDR) report and the subsequent Quadrennial Defense Review Irregular Warfare (IW) Roadmap. Specifically this study identifies current joint doctrinal treatment of IW and its aspects, to include content of ongoing revision efforts; identifies any joint doctrinal voids concerning IW and proposes courses of action for resolving identified voids; and identifies terminology implications/doctrinal issues related to IW. The study used a systematic approach by gathering pertinent information and then analyzing it in relation to IW. Thorough research and data collection was conducted on IW. Analysis centered on IW terminology and possible doctrinal voids and redundancies within the 10 IW activities (aspects) listed in the IW roadmap and, as a minimum, their associated joint publications (JPs). Conclusions were drawn regarding the doctrinal implications of IW. Finally, recommendations were made regarding the joint doctrinal treatment of IW and courses of action proposed for resolving identified joint doctrinal voids.
Book Synopsis The Changing Nature of War by : Kristen Boon
Download or read book The Changing Nature of War written by Kristen Boon and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Terrorism: Commentary on Security Documents is a series that provides primary source documents and expert commentary on various topics in the worldwide effort to combat terrorism. Among the documents collected are transcripts of Congressional testimony, reports by such federal government bodies as the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and the Government Accountability Office (GAO), United Nations Security Council resolutions, reports and investigations by the United Nations Secretary-General and other dedicated UN bodies, and case law from the U.S. and around the globe covering issues related to terrorism. Most volumes carry a single theme, and inside each volume the documents appear within topic-based categories. The series also includes a subject index and other indices that guide the user through this complex area of the law. Volume 127, The Changing Nature of War, tackles how the approach to training for and fighting wars and readying national security is likely to evolve as the United States moves further into the 21st Century. Professor Douglas Lovelace, Jr. has organized and provided framing and illustrative commentary on Congressional Research Service reports, Presidential policy statements, Department of Defense strategy papers, and research reports from the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute on contemporary national security topics as: United States war planning; the inter-related policy and force-related concerns of shifting from counterinsurgency-based efforts abroad to a focus on counterterrorism both domestically and abroad; transnational organized crime, with particular emphasis on the Mexican drug cartels operating along the U.S.-Mexico border; and the ever-expanding national security and private economic ramifications of cyberwarfare.
Download or read book Special Warfare written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis U.S. Conflicts in the 21st Century [3 volumes] by : Spencer C. Tucker
Download or read book U.S. Conflicts in the 21st Century [3 volumes] written by Spencer C. Tucker and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2015-12-14 with total page 1903 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This three-volume reference work provides an up-to-date presentation and analysis of the U.S. wars of the 21st century, addressing their backgrounds, causes, courses, and consequences. It serves as an indispensable resource for students seeking to understand the role of the United States in the world today. Addressing the U.S. conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Global War on Terror from the year 2001 to the present, this comprehensive, three-volume encyclopedia covers the significant individuals, key events, and important places involved in these recent military events. Beginning with the rise of Al Qaeda in the 1990s and the attacks on September 11, 2001, and covering events through ISIS's dramatic surge in Iraq and Syria, the hundreds of detailed entries also examine historical trends; nations and ethnicities involved in the conflicts; influential figures and organizations; economic, political, diplomatic, and cultural influences; wars, campaigns, and battles; and important weapons systems. The set's A–Z organization makes it an easy-to-use ready reference for high school and college students. Perspective essays on several controversial topics—such as the use of torture and the effects of the Patriot Act—serve to inspire readers to apply critical thinking. A detailed chronology is provided to help students place all the important events that have occurred in the Afghanistan War, Iraq War, and War on Terror. Each of the chronologically arranged primary documents is introduced with a brief overview to provide important background information and context.
Book Synopsis The Iraq War Encyclopedia by : Thomas R. Mockaitis
Download or read book The Iraq War Encyclopedia written by Thomas R. Mockaitis and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2013-08-15 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This reference work is an ideal resource for anyone interested in better understanding the controversial Iraq War. It treats the war in its entirety, covering politics, religion, and history, as well as military issues. The Iraq War started in 2003 in a quest to rid the nation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) that were never found. It lasted over 8 years, during which more than 30,000 U.S. service members were wounded and almost 4,500 American lives lost. Comprised of some 275 entries, this comprehensive encyclopedia examines the war from multiple points of view. Each article is written by an expert with specialized knowledge of the topic. The reference covers every aspect of the Iraq War, from the U.S. invasion (Operation IRAQI FREEDOM) through the rise of Al Qaeda in Iraq, the surge, and the U.S. withdrawal. Other significant aspects of the conflict are addressed as well, including Abu Ghraib, WMDs, the controversial use of private military contractors, and Britain's role in the war. The book also features an overview essay, a "causes and consequences" essay, maps, photos, a chronology, and a bibliography.
Book Synopsis Military Operational Planning and Strategic Moves by : Lucía Martínez Ordóñez
Download or read book Military Operational Planning and Strategic Moves written by Lucía Martínez Ordóñez and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-05-03 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book employs game theory to warfare and in particular to military operations. It aims at scrutinizing the validity of the two ideas that have governed the literature on war and warfighting: One is the Clausewitzian Fog of War, which suggests that he who is able to "see" through the gunsmoke and observe his opponent’s moves before he has to commit to some strategy himself, should be able to gain an advantage over that enemy; the other is the tradition of understanding military conflict as a zero-sum game. Combined, these ideas seem to imply that war always gives rise to a second-mover advantage. This book questions the validity of this presumption at the operational level of military planning. It provides a simple but rigorous game-theoretic framework in order to analyse operational alternatives for a whole range of typical conflicts Western military forces are facing, including the most recent ones such as Anti-Access/Area-Denial and supporting host nations' counterinsurgency campaigns.
Book Synopsis Understanding Commanders' Information Needs for Influence Operations by : Eric Victor Larson
Download or read book Understanding Commanders' Information Needs for Influence Operations written by Eric Victor Larson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2009 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Documents a study whose goals were to develop an understanding of commanders' information requirements for cultural and other "soft" factors in order to improve the effectiveness of combined arms operations, and to develop practical ways for commanders to integrate information and influence operations activities into combined arms planning/assessment in order to increase the usefulness to ground commanders of such operations.
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