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Aspects Of The Combination Of Forecasts Evaluation Of Policy Models And The Characterization Of The Behavior Of An Economic System Around Its Equilibrium
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Book Synopsis Aspects of the Combination of Forecasts, Evaluation of Policy Models, and the Characterization of the Behavior of an Economic System Around Its Equilibrium by : Melinda Deutsch
Download or read book Aspects of the Combination of Forecasts, Evaluation of Policy Models, and the Characterization of the Behavior of an Economic System Around Its Equilibrium written by Melinda Deutsch and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Use of Prior Information in Forecast Combination by : Francis X. Diebold
Download or read book The Use of Prior Information in Forecast Combination written by Francis X. Diebold and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy by : Christopher Gibbs
Download or read book Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy written by Christopher Gibbs and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces the concept of a Forecast Combination Equilibrium to model boundedly rational agents who combine a menu of different forecasts using insights from the forecasting literature to mimic the behavior of actual forecasters. The equilibrium concept is consistent with rational expectations under certain conditions, while also permitting multiple, distinct, self-fulfilling equilibria, many of which are stable under least squares learning. The equilibrium concept is applied to a simple Lucas-type monetary model where agents engage in constant gain learning. The combination of multiple equilibria and learning is sufficient to replicate some key features of inflation data, such as time-varying volatility and periodic bouts of high inflation or deflation in a model that experiences only i.i.d. random shocks.
Download or read book Forecasting written by William Ascher and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Forecasting is a new, and still changing field. One of the most important factors in the relationships between method and result is that core assumptions are more important than sophisticated techniques; improved technique does not compensate for faulty assumptions. Forecasting is still an art and one that is difficult to master. The uses of forecasting can be so varied, and applied to so many different disciplines, that it's worth making the effort. The appraisal of forecasts and the choice of the "most likely" from a group focusing on the same area is also a type of forecasting.
Book Synopsis Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis by : M. Granger Morgan
Download or read book Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis written by M. Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-12 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many books instruct readers on how to use the tools of policy analysis. This book is different. Its primary focus is on helping readers to look critically at the strengths, limitations, and the underlying assumptions analysts make when they use standard tools or problem framings. Using examples, many of which involve issues in science and technology, the book exposes readers to some of the critical issues of taste, professional responsibility, ethics, and values that are associated with policy analysis and research. Topics covered include policy problems formulated in terms of utility maximization such as benefit-cost, decision, and multi-attribute analysis, issues in the valuation of intangibles, uncertainty in policy analysis, selected topics in risk analysis and communication, limitations and alternatives to the paradigm of utility maximization, issues in behavioral decision theory, issues related to organizations and multiple agents, and selected topics in policy advice and policy analysis for government.
Book Synopsis Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy by : Haris Doukas
Download or read book Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.
Book Synopsis Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning by : Carl Patton
Download or read book Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning written by Carl Patton and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-08-26 with total page 481 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updated in its 3rd edition, Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning presents quickly applied methods for analyzing and resolving planning and policy issues at state, regional, and urban levels. Divided into two parts, Methods which presents quick methods in nine chapters and is organized around the steps in the policy analysis process, and Cases which presents seven policy cases, ranging in degree of complexity, the text provides readers with the resources they need for effective policy planning and analysis. Quantitative and qualitative methods are systematically combined to address policy dilemmas and urban planning problems. Readers and analysts utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public policy.
Book Synopsis American Doctoral Dissertations by :
Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 848 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by :
Download or read book Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists written by and published by . This book was released on 1961-05 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.
Book Synopsis Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems by : John C. Odling-Smee
Download or read book Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Book Synopsis The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions by : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Download or read book The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.
Book Synopsis Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis by :
Download or read book Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 1438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Advancing Land Change Modeling by : National Research Council
Download or read book Advancing Land Change Modeling written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2014-03-31 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.
Book Synopsis Models in Environmental Regulatory Decision Making by : National Research Council
Download or read book Models in Environmental Regulatory Decision Making written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-08-25 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many regulations issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are based on the results of computer models. Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy. Given the critical role played by models, the EPA asked the National Research Council to assess scientific issues related to the agency's selection and use of models in its decisions. The book recommends a series of guidelines and principles for improving agency models and decision-making processes. The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.
Book Synopsis Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance by : El Bachir Boukherouaa
Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Download or read book Health Behavior written by Karen Glanz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-07-27 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essential health behavior text, updated with the latest theories, research, and issues Health Behavior: Theory, Research and Practice provides a thorough introduction to understanding and changing health behavior, core tenets of the public health role. Covering theory, applications, and research, this comprehensive book has become the gold standard of health behavior texts. This new fifth edition has been updated to reflect the most recent changes in the public health field with a focus on health behavior, including coverage of the intersection of health and community, culture, and communication, with detailed explanations of both established and emerging theories. Offering perspective applicable at the individual, interpersonal, group, and community levels, this essential guide provides the most complete coverage of the field to give public health students and practitioners an authoritative reference for both the theoretical and practical aspects of health behavior. A deep understanding of human behaviors is essential for effective public health and health care management. This guide provides the most complete, up-to-date information in the field, to give you a real-world understanding and the background knowledge to apply it successfully. Learn how e-health and social media factor into health communication Explore the link between culture and health, and the importance of community Get up to date on emerging theories of health behavior and their applications Examine the push toward evidence-based interventions, and global applications Written and edited by the leading health and social behavior theorists and researchers, Health Behavior: Theory, Research and Practice provides the information and real-world perspective that builds a solid understanding of how to analyze and improve health behaviors and health.
