Analysis Of Decisions Under Uncertainty

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262029251
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-17 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty

Author : Bruce F. Baird
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471858911
Total Pages : 546 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (589 download)

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Book Synopsis Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Bruce F. Baird

Download or read book Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Bruce F. Baird and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1991-01-16 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to improve decision-making skills in realistic situations and do it in a reasonably nonmathematical fashion. Develops practical techniques for deciding upon the best strategies in a variety of situations. Provides methods for reducing complex problems to easily-drawn decision diagrams (trees), supported by real-world examples. Includes detailed cases that employ the methods described in the text. Each chapter contains illustrative examples and exercises.

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052151732X
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (215 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by : Itzhak Gilboa

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Principles of Risk Analysis

Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439857504
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Risk Analysis by : Charles Yoe

Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i

Decisions Under Uncertainty

Author : Ian Jordaan
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521782777
Total Pages : 696 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (827 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Ian Jordaan

Download or read book Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Ian Jordaan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-04-07 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Publisher Description

Analysis of Decisions Under Uncertainty

Author : Robert Schlaifer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (225 download)

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Book Synopsis Analysis of Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Robert Schlaifer

Download or read book Analysis of Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Robert Schlaifer and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Completing the Forecast

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309290236
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Analysis of Decisions Under Uncertainty

Author : Robert Schlaifer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (225 download)

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Book Synopsis Analysis of Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Robert Schlaifer

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540684360
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (46 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by : Mohammed Abdellaoui

Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-29 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : Charles A. Holloway
Publisher : Prentice Hall
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Charles A. Holloway

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Charles A. Holloway and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1979 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.

Primer on Risk Analysis

Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429664877
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (296 download)

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Book Synopsis Primer on Risk Analysis by : Charles Yoe

Download or read book Primer on Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-01-18 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner, tackling the question, "What is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of many risk dialects into serviceable definitions, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk management and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all disciplines. New in this edition is an expanded risk management emphasis that includes an overview chapter on enterprise risk management and a chapter on decision making under uncertainty designed to help decision makers use the results of risk analysis in practical ways to improve decisions and their outcomes. This book will empower you to enter the world of risk management in your own domain of expertise by providing you with practical, insightful, useful and adaptable knowledge of risk analysis science including risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. Features: Answers the fundamental question, "What is Risk Analysis?" Presents the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Responds to the continuing evolution of risk science and addresses the language of risk as it continues to evolve Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Includes a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty provides practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis This book is suitable for executives, professionals and students who seek a fundamental understanding of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. A more detailed examination of this topic, suitable for practitioners from any discipline as well as students and professionals who aspire to become experts in the practice of risk analysis science, is found in Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-47820-6.

Info-Gap Decision Theory

Author : Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080465706
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Info-Gap Decision Theory by : Yakov Ben-Haim

Download or read book Info-Gap Decision Theory written by Yakov Ben-Haim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-10-11 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Public Policy in an Uncertain World

Author : Charles F. Manski
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674067541
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Public Policy in an Uncertain World by : Charles F. Manski

Download or read book Public Policy in an Uncertain World written by Charles F. Manski and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-14 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.

Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : Donald J. Brown
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030595129
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Donald J. Brown

Download or read book Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Donald J. Brown and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-12-18 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an exploration of the ubiquity of ambiguity in decision-making under uncertainty. It presents various essays on behavioral economics and behavioral finance that draw on the theory of Black Swans (Taleb 2010), which argues for a distinction between unprecedented events in our past and unpredictable events in our future. The defining property of Black Swan random events is that they are unpredictable, i.e., highly unlikely random events. In this text, Mandelbrot’s (1972) operational definition of risky random unpredictable events is extended to Black Swan assets – assets for which the cumulative probability distribution or conditional probability distribution of random future asset returns is a power distribution. Ambiguous assets are assets for which the uncertainties of future returns are not risks. Consequently, there are two disjoint classes of Black Swan assets: Risky Black Swan assets and Ambiguous Black Swan assets, a new class of ambiguous assets with unpredictable random future outcomes. The text is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on affective moods, introduces affective utility functions and discusses the ambiguity of Black Swans. The second part, which shifts the spotlight to affective equilibrium in asset markets, features chapters on affective portfolio analysis and Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities. In order to gain the most from the book, readers should have completed the standard introductory graduate courses on microeconomics, behavioral finance, and convex optimization. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and post docs specializing in economic theory, experimental economics, finance, mathematics, computer science or data analysis.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets

Author : Antonio J. Conejo
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441974210
Total Pages : 549 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets by : Antonio J. Conejo

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets written by Antonio J. Conejo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.