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Author : D. A. Gillies
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (476 download)
Download or read book An Objective Theory of Probability written by D. A. Gillies and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Donald Gillies
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 0415618657
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (156 download)
Download or read book An Objective Theory of Probability written by Donald Gillies and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-03-02 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axiomatic approaches. This of course raises the problem of how the abstract calculus of probability should be connected with the 'actual world of experiments'. It is suggested that this link should be established, not by a definition of probability, but by an application of Popper's concept of falsifiability. In addition to formulating his own interesting theory, Dr Gillies gives a detailed criticism of the generally accepted Neyman Pearson theory of testing, as well as of alternative philosophical approaches to probability theory. The reissue will be of interest both to philosophers with no previous knowledge of probability theory and to mathematicians interested in the foundations of probability theory and statistics.
Author : Donald Gillies
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 113681082X
Total Pages : 263 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (368 download)
Download or read book An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals) written by Donald Gillies and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises’ views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises’ definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axiomatic approaches. This of course raises the problem of how the abstract calculus of probability should be connected with the ‘actual world of experiments’. It is suggested that this link should be established, not by a definition of probability, but by an application of Popper’s concept of falsifiability. In addition to formulating his own interesting theory, Dr Gillies gives a detailed criticism of the generally accepted Neyman Pearson theory of testing, as well as of alternative philosophical approaches to probability theory. The reissue will be of interest both to philosophers with no previous knowledge of probability theory and to mathematicians interested in the foundations of probability theory and statistics.
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Author : Douglas Angus Gillies
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)
Download or read book An Objective Theory of Probability [By] D.A. Gillies written by Douglas Angus Gillies and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Donald Gillies
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136810811
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (368 download)
Download or read book An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals) written by Donald Gillies and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises’ views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises’ definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axiomatic approaches. This of course raises the problem of how the abstract calculus of probability should be connected with the ‘actual world of experiments’. It is suggested that this link should be established, not by a definition of probability, but by an application of Popper’s concept of falsifiability. In addition to formulating his own interesting theory, Dr Gillies gives a detailed criticism of the generally accepted Neyman Pearson theory of testing, as well as of alternative philosophical approaches to probability theory. The reissue will be of interest both to philosophers with no previous knowledge of probability theory and to mathematicians interested in the foundations of probability theory and statistics.
Author : Donald Gillies
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134672454
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (346 download)
Download or read book Philosophical Theories of Probability written by Donald Gillies and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-09-10 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
Author : Michael Emmett Brady
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book J. Muth's 1961, Econometrica Article Conception of Probability Was Inconsistent and Incoherent written by Michael Emmett Brady and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: J. Muth published a paper in 1961 in Econometrica that was incoherent and inconsistent because it was based on a hybrid amalgamation of directly conflicting Subjective and Objective theories of probability. Muth's hybrid amalgamation did not exist before 1961, in 1961, or after 1961. Muth jumps back and forth in his article by combining subjective and objective (relative-limiting frequency) interpretations of probability that are distinct and do not have any overlapping parts that intersect.Muth uses expected utility without citing Von Neumann's (and Morgenstern's) theory of risk. Von Neumann, an adherent of Keynes's logical theory of probability between 1936 and 1942, and Morgenstern used objective limiting frequencies to explicate risk since their exposition was limited to risk. Under uncertainty, Von Neumann and Morgenstern used a safety first approach based on Max-Min techniques. However, subjective probabilities require the use of Subjective Expected Utility a la F Ramsey, L J Savage and B. de Finetti. There are no citations in Muth's references /citations to any book/article written by either/or any academic expert in either subjective and/or objective theories of probability. How the subjective or objective probabilities are supposed to converge to the true objective probability is never explained. If one is using subjective probabilities, then reference to Savages principle of stable estimation is required. On the other hand, if one is using objective probabilities, a discussion of limits is needed as the number of observations becomes large over time.Currently, there is no extant theory of probability that shows how subjective probabilities converge to objective probabilities over time as the subjective theory of probability states that objective probabilities do not exist and could never exist. Similarly, adherents of objective probability do not accept the concept of subjective probability.
Author : Donald Gillies
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 0415182751
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (151 download)
Download or read book Philosophical Theories of Probability written by Donald Gillies and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of probability and statistics has increased dramatically in all fields of research. This book presents an account of the resultant philosophical theories of probability and explains how they relate to one another.
Author : Richard Jeffrey
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521536684
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (366 download)
Download or read book Subjective Probability written by Richard Jeffrey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-04-12 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sample Text
Author : Vincent F. Hendricks
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792369523
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (695 download)
Download or read book Probability Theory written by Vincent F. Hendricks and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-06-30 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of papers presented at the conference on Probability Theory - Philosophy, Recent History and Relations to Science, University of Roskilde, Denmark, September 16-18, 1998. Since the measure theoretical definition of probability was proposed by Kolmogorov, probability theory has developed into a mature mathematical theory. It is today a fruitful field of mathematics that has important applications in philosophy, science, engineering, and many other areas. The measure theoretical definition of probability and its axioms, however, are not without their problems; some of them even puzzled Kolmogorov. This book sheds light on some recent discussions of the problems in probability theory and their history, analysing their philosophical and mathematical significance, and the role pf mathematical probability theory in other sciences.
Author : Mauricio Suárez
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108983847
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modelling written by Mauricio Suárez and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-01-21 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Element has two main aims. The first one (sections 1-7) is an historically informed review of the philosophy of probability. It describes recent historiography, lays out the distinction between subjective and objective notions, and concludes by applying the historical lessons to the main interpretations of probability. The second aim (sections 8-13) focuses entirely on objective probability, and advances a number of novel theses regarding its role in scientific practice. A distinction is drawn between traditional attempts to interpret chance, and a novel methodological study of its application. A radical form of pluralism is then introduced, advocating a tripartite distinction between propensities, probabilities and frequencies. Finally, a distinction is drawn between two different applications of chance in statistical modelling which, it is argued, vindicates the overall methodological approach. The ensuing conception of objective probability in practice is the 'complex nexus of chance'.
Author : Michael Emmett Brady
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Given B. De Finetti's Conclusion that 'Probability (Objective) Does Not Exist', Then Rational Expectations Does Not Exist Either written by Michael Emmett Brady and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational Expectations is an approach to probability and expectations that was initiated by Muth in 1961. Muth's concept is based on an immense muddle and confusion in his mind about subjective and objective concepts of probability that confuses subjective probability with objective probability. Like Nelson Goodman's Grue concept, where the color green turns into the color blue at some point in the future, at some point rational expectationists claim that subjective probabilities become true, correct, right and objective. This is what they mean by the term rational. Rational is objective and/or true probability. This is impossible and demonstrates a great lack of knowledge about basic theories of probability. There is no existing theory of probability that supports the claims made by rational expectationists. There is no right(wrong), correct, true, or objective probability, probability distribution, or expectation if you assume that you are applying the subjective theory of probability. Likewise, all objective theories of probability deny the existence of subjective probability.This approach has infected the entire economics profession since the early 1970's and created an even more immense muddle than was originally created by Muth in 1961.
Author : Henry Ely Kyburg
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)
Download or read book Studies in Subjective Probability written by Henry Ely Kyburg and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Truth and probability; Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources; The bases of probability; Subjective probability as the measure of a non-measurable set; The elicitation of personal probabilities; Probability: beware of falsifications; Probable knowledge.
Author : Glenn Marcus
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780999704165
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (41 download)
Download or read book A Validation of Knowledge written by Glenn Marcus and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-17 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, now in its second edition, offers original answers to all the major open questions in epistemology-as indicated by the book's title. These questions and answers arise organically in the course of a validation of the entire corpus of human knowledge. The book explains how we know what we know, and how well we know it. The author presents a positive theory, motivated and directed at every step not by a need to reply to skeptics or subjectivists, but by the need of a rational individual to know the world. The author draws heavily from Ayn Rand's theory of concepts as presented in her book, Introduction to Objectivist Epistemology, but departs from her epistemology-especially as explicated by leading exponents of her philosophy-in important ways. Areas of departure include the perception of entities and the role of probability theory in epistemology. A main idea in the book is to begin the validation of the law of causality by identifying that existence causes our consciousness of it. Another key idea is this: The very fact that we perceive entities is the most basic and most extensive evidence that causal forces and causal interactions are regular. This book is primarily for a specialized readership-familiar with epistemological ideas and with Ayn Rand's theory of concepts in particular. The last third of the book uses probability theory and mathematics somewhat beyond basic calculus, but less mathematical explanations are also included to make the general ideas accessible to lay readers.
Author : Michael Emmett Brady
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book On the Immense and Severe Confusions and Muddles About the Nature of Subjective and Objective Probability in the Theory of Rational Expectations written by Michael Emmett Brady and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Starting with J. Muth's unsupported and unsupportable claims, originally made in 1961, that “rational expectations” were subjective probability distributions that were distributed around a known, true, objective probability distribution, various economists have provided the same type of unsupported and unsupportable claim to assert that subjective probability distributions become equal to objective probability distributions. This is impossible since the only restriction allowed in the subjective theory of probability is that the subjective probabilities must be additive, so that they are coherent, which means that they conform to, and are consistent with, the mathematical laws of the probability calculus. Any other restrictions added, as done by Muth initially, and later by rational expectationist adherents like Lucas and Sargent, to this requirement of additivity, are rejected. The many restrictions incorporated by rational expectationists lead to the limiting frequency theory of probability, which can only hold in the very long run as one approaches infinity. Rational expectationists, however, claim that the decision makers can know the limiting, convergent behavior in the short run of the long run series of observations. They commit the logical fallacy of conditional a priorism, or long runism, that was examined repeatedly by the philosopher of science, Nicholas Rescher, in the 1970's. None of the claims made by rational expectationists can ever hold in the short run. For instance, the Rational expectationist claim that the Phillips Curve is vertical in the short run is a perfect example of the logical fallacy of conditional a priorism.
Author :
Publisher : Allied Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9788177644517
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (445 download)
Download or read book Probability Theory written by and published by Allied Publishers. This book was released on 2013 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability theory
Author : Donald Gillies
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134672462
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (346 download)
Download or read book Philosophical Theories of Probability written by Donald Gillies and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-09-10 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
