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An Empirical Application Of A Random Level Shifts Model With Time Varying Probability And Mean Reversion To The Volatility Of Latin American Forex Markets Returns
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Book Synopsis An Empirical Application of a Random Level Shifts Model with Time-varying Probability and Mean Reversion to the Volatility of Latin-American Forex Markets Returns by : José Carlos Gonzáles Tanaka
Download or read book An Empirical Application of a Random Level Shifts Model with Time-varying Probability and Mean Reversion to the Volatility of Latin-American Forex Markets Returns written by José Carlos Gonzáles Tanaka and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Law and Employment by : James J. Heckman
Download or read book Law and Employment written by James J. Heckman and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Law and Employment analyzes the effects of regulation and deregulation on Latin American labor markets and presents empirically grounded studies of the costs of regulation. Numerous labor regulations that were introduced or reformed in Latin America in the past thirty years have had important economic consequences. Nobel Prize-winning economist James J. Heckman and Carmen Pagés document the behavior of firms attempting to stay in business and be competitive while facing the high costs of complying with these labor laws. They challenge the prevailing view that labor market regulations affect only the distribution of labor incomes and have little or no impact on efficiency or the performance of labor markets. Using new micro-evidence, this volume shows that labor regulations reduce labor market turnover rates and flexibility, promote inequality, and discriminate against marginal workers. Along with in-depth studies of Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Jamaica, and Trinidad, Law and Employment provides comparative analysis of Latin American economies against a range of European countries and the United States. The book breaks new ground by quantifying not only the cost of regulation in Latin America, the Caribbean, and in the OECD, but also the broader impact of this regulation.
Book Synopsis Testing Mean Reversion in Stock Market Volatility by : Turan G. Bali
Download or read book Testing Mean Reversion in Stock Market Volatility written by Turan G. Bali and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a comprehensive study of continuous time GARCH modeling with the thin-tailed normal and the fat-tailed Student-t and generalized error distributions. The paper measures the degree of mean reversion in stock return volatility based on the relationship between discrete time GARCH and continuous time diffusion models. The convergence results based on the aforementioned distribution functions are shown to have similar implications for testing mean reversion in stochastic volatility. Alternative models are compared in terms of their ability to capture mean-reverting behavior of stock return volatility. The empirical evidence obtained from several stock market indices indicates that the conditional variance, log-variance, and standard deviation of stock market returns are pulled back to some long-run average level over time.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance by : Shu-Heng Chen
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance written by Shu-Heng Chen and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 785 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.
Book Synopsis Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective by : Vasant Naik
Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis State-space Models with Regime Switching by : Chang-Jin Kim
Download or read book State-space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Book Synopsis Implied Volatility Functions by : Bernard Dumas
Download or read book Implied Volatility Functions written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.
Book Synopsis Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) by : Andreas Jobst
Download or read book Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.
Book Synopsis A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility by : Ser-Huang Poon
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Book Synopsis Regime Shifts and Changing Volatility in Stock Returns by : Pietro Veronesi
Download or read book Regime Shifts and Changing Volatility in Stock Returns written by Pietro Veronesi and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I present an intertemporal asset pricing model of learning to explain the GARCH behavior of stock returns and the intertemporal variation of expected returns. I assume that dividends follow a diffusion process whose drift rate shifts between two unobservable states at random times. I first show that the asset price is increasing and convex in investors' posterior probability of the good state. I then characterize the changes in asset price sensitivity to news, return volatility and expected returns as function of investors' level of uncertainty over the state of the economy.
Book Synopsis Regression Modeling with Actuarial and Financial Applications by : Edward W. Frees
Download or read book Regression Modeling with Actuarial and Financial Applications written by Edward W. Frees and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book teaches multiple regression and time series and how to use these to analyze real data in risk management and finance.
Book Synopsis Econometrics of Structural Change by : Walter Krämer
Download or read book Econometrics of Structural Change written by Walter Krämer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t
Book Synopsis Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment by : Mr.Ralph Chami
Download or read book Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment written by Mr.Ralph Chami and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-13 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.
Book Synopsis Does What You Export Matter? by : Daniel Lederman
Download or read book Does What You Export Matter? written by Daniel Lederman and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-06-18 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does what economies export matter for development? If so, can industrial policies improve on the export basket generated by the market? This book approaches these questions from a variety of conceptual and policy viewpoints. Reviewing the theoretical arguments in favor of industrial policies, the authors first ask whether existing indicators allow policy makers to identify growth-promoting sectors with confidence. To this end, they assess, and ultimately cast doubt upon, the reliability of many popular indicators advocated by proponents of industrial policy. Second, and central to their critique, the authors document extraordinary differences in the performance of countries exporting seemingly identical products, be they natural resources or 'high-tech' goods. Further, they argue that globalization has so fragmented the production process that even talking about exported goods as opposed to tasks may be misleading. Reviewing evidence from history and from around the world, the authors conclude that policy makers should focus less on what is produced, and more on how it is produced. They analyze alternative approaches to picking winners but conclude by favoring 'horizontal-ish' policies--for instance, those that build human capital or foment innovation in existing and future products—that only incidentally favor some sectors over others.
Book Synopsis Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models by : David Ardia
Download or read book Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models written by David Ardia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-05-08 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.
Book Synopsis Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets by : Adam Prakash
Download or read book Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets written by Adam Prakash and published by Bright Sparks. This book was released on 2011 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely publication as world leaders deliberate the causes of the latest bouts of food price volatility and search for solutions that address the recent velocity of financial, economic, political, demographic, and climatic change. As a collection compiled from a diverse group of economists, analysts, traders, institutions and policy formulators - comprising multiple methodologies and viewpoints - the book exposes the impact of volatility on global food security, with particular focus on the world's most vulnerable.
Book Synopsis Privatization in Latin America by : Alberto Chong
Download or read book Privatization in Latin America written by Alberto Chong and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-03-15 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Privatization is under attack. Beginning in the 1980s, thousands of failing state-owned enterprises worldwide have been turned over to the private sector. But public opinion has turned against privatization. A large political backlash has been brewing for some time, infused by accusations of corruption, abuse of market power, and neglect of the poor. What is the real record of privatization and are the criticisms justified? 'Privatization in Latin America' evaluates the empirical evidence on privatization in a region that has witnessed an extensive decline in the state's share of production over the past 20 years. The book is a compilation of recent studies that provide a comprehensive analysis of the record of and accusations against privatization, with important recommendations for the future. Seven countries are investigated: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. This book will be vital to anyone interested in the privatization debate but especially to those involved in civil service reform, corporate governance, economic policy, finance, and anticorruption efforts. 'Privatization is important but controversial. While economists typically favor it, others are skeptical. This book provides strong scientific evidence that privatization has been beneficial for many Latin American countries, although some privatizations failed and some groups in society lost out. As usual, the devil is in the details: how privatization is carried out and what reforms accompany it are crucial to its success. The book is definitely an invaluable contribution to the privatization debate.' --Oliver Hart, Andrew E. Furer Professor of Economics, Harvard University
