Agents Of Uncertainty

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Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition

Author : Joseph Y. Halpern
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262533804
Total Pages : 505 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition by : Joseph Y. Halpern

Download or read book Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition written by Joseph Y. Halpern and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-04-07 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty. Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research. New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security. Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.

Physics Of Cancer, The: Research Advances

Author : Bernard S Gerstman
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811223505
Total Pages : 279 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Physics Of Cancer, The: Research Advances by : Bernard S Gerstman

Download or read book Physics Of Cancer, The: Research Advances written by Bernard S Gerstman and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-12-03 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cancer deaths per capita have decreased in recent years, but the improvement is attributed to prevention, not treatment. The difficulty in treating cancer may be due to its 'complexity', in the mathematical physics sense of the word. Tumors evolve and spread in response to internal and external factors that involve feedback mechanisms and nonlinear behavior. Investigations of the nonlinear interactions among cells, and between cells and their environment, are crucial for developing a sufficiently detailed understanding of the system's emergent phenomenology to be able to control the behavior. In the case of cancer, controlling the system's behavior will mean the ability to treat and cure the disease. Physicists have been studying various complex, nonlinear systems for many years using a variety of techniques. These investigations have provided insights that allow physicists to make unique contributions towards the treatment of cancer.This interdisciplinary book presents recent advancements in physicists' research on cancer. The work presented in this volume uses a variety of physical, biochemical, mathematical, theoretical, and computational techniques to gain a deeper molecular and cellular understanding of the horrific disease that is cancer.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets

Author : Robert G. Chambers
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190063033
Total Pages : 390 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets by : Robert G. Chambers

Download or read book Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets written by Robert G. Chambers and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-30 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For all its elaborate theories and models, economics always reduces to comparisons. Should we build A rather than B? Will I be better off if I eat D rather than C? How much will it cost me to produce F instead of E? At root, the ultimate goal of economics is simple: assessing the alternatives and finding the best possible outcome. This basic mathematical concept underlies all introductions to the field of economics, yet as advanced students progress through the discipline, they often lose track of this foundational idea when presented with real-world complications and uncertainty. In Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets, Robert G. Chambers develops an integrated analytic framework for treating consumer, producer, and market equilibrium analyses as special cases of a generic optimization problem. He builds on lessons learned by all beginning students of economics to show how basic concepts can still be applied even in complex and highly uncertain conditions. Drawing from optimization theory, Chambers demonstrates how the same unified mathematical framework applies to both stochastic and non-stochastic decision settings. The book borrows from both convex and variational analysis and gives special emphasis to differentiability, conjugacy theory, and Fenchel's Duality Theorem. Throughout, Chambers includes practical examples, problems, and exercises to make abstract material accessible. Bringing together essential theoretical tools for understanding decision-making under uncertainty, Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets provides a unified framework for analyzing a broad range of microeconomic decisions. This book will be an invaluable resource for advanced graduate students and scholars of microeconomic theory.

Ignorance and Uncertainty

Author : Olivier Compte
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108422020
Total Pages : 303 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Ignorance and Uncertainty by : Olivier Compte

Download or read book Ignorance and Uncertainty written by Olivier Compte and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes novel methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling without complex mathematics.

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Author : John Kay
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Foreign Exchange Intervention under Policy Uncertainty

Author : Gustavo Adler
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475520417
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention under Policy Uncertainty by : Gustavo Adler

Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention under Policy Uncertainty written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-17 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization.

Uncertainty Modeling

Author : Vladik Kreinovich
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319510525
Total Pages : 292 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty Modeling by : Vladik Kreinovich

Download or read book Uncertainty Modeling written by Vladik Kreinovich and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-31 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book commemorates the 65th birthday of Dr. Boris Kovalerchuk, and reflects many of the research areas covered by his work. It focuses on data processing under uncertainty, especially fuzzy data processing, when uncertainty comes from the imprecision of expert opinions. The book includes 17 authoritative contributions by leading experts.

Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy

Author : Haris Doukas
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030031527
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy by : Haris Doukas

Download or read book Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.

Rationalised panics. The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis

Author : Tijmen Roderik Danie͏̈ls
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9036101328
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (361 download)

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Book Synopsis Rationalised panics. The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis by : Tijmen Roderik Danie͏̈ls

Download or read book Rationalised panics. The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis written by Tijmen Roderik Danie͏̈ls and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Interval / Probabilistic Uncertainty and Non-classical Logics

Author : Van-Nam Huynh
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540776648
Total Pages : 381 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Interval / Probabilistic Uncertainty and Non-classical Logics by : Van-Nam Huynh

Download or read book Interval / Probabilistic Uncertainty and Non-classical Logics written by Van-Nam Huynh and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-11 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the proceedings of the first International Workshop on Interval/Probabilistic Uncertainty and Non Classical Logics, Ishikawa, Japan, March 25-28, 2008. The workshop brought together researchers working on interval and probabilistic uncertainty and on non-classical logics. It is hoped this workshop will lead to a boost in the much-needed collaboration between the uncertainty analysis and non-classical logic communities, and thus, to better processing of uncertainty.

Scalable Uncertainty Management

Author : Steven Schockaert
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319458566
Total Pages : 361 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Scalable Uncertainty Management by : Steven Schockaert

Download or read book Scalable Uncertainty Management written by Steven Schockaert and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-29 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2016, held in Nice, France, in September 2016. The 18 regular papers and 5 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 35 submissions. Papers are solicited in all areas of managing and reasoning with substantial and complex kinds of uncertain, incomplete or inconsistent information. These include (but are not restricted to) applications in decision support systems, risk analysis, machine learning, belief networks, logics of uncertainty, belief revision and update, argumentation, negotiation technologies, semantic web applications, search engines, ontology systems, information fusion, information retrieval, natural language processing, information extraction, image recognition, vision systems, data and text mining, and the consideration of issues such as provenance, trust, heterogeneity, and complexity of data and knowledge.

Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty

Author : Michael Clarke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540573951
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (739 download)

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Book Synopsis Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty by : Michael Clarke

Download or read book Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty written by Michael Clarke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1993-10-20 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years it has become apparent that an important part of the theory of artificial intelligence is concerned with reasoning on the basis of uncertain, incomplete, or inconsistent information. A variety of formalisms have been developed, including nonmonotonic logic, fuzzy sets, possibility theory, belief functions, and dynamic models of reasoning such as belief revision and Bayesian networks. Several European research projects have been formed in the area and the first European conference was held in 1991. This volume contains the papers accepted for presentation at ECSQARU-93, the European Conference on Symbolicand Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty, held at the University of Granada, Spain, November 8-10, 1993.

Uncertainty in Economics

Author : Julia Köhn
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319553518
Total Pages : 199 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Economics by : Julia Köhn

Download or read book Uncertainty in Economics written by Julia Köhn and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-04 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book the author develops a new approach to uncertainty in economics, which calls for a fundamental change in the methodology of economics. It provides a comprehensive overview and critical appraisal of the economic theory of uncertainty and shows that uncertainty was originally conceptualized both as an epistemic and an ontological problem. As a result of the economic professions’ attempt to become acknowledged as a science, the more problematic aspect of ontological uncertainty has been neglected and the subjective probability approach to uncertainty became dominant in economic theory. A careful analysis of ontological theories of uncertainty explains the blindness of modern economics to economic phenomena such as instability, slumps or excessive booms. Based on these findings the author develops a new approach that legitimizes a New Uncertainty Paradigm in economics.

Distributed Adaptive Consensus Control of Uncertain Multi-Agent Systems

Author : Wei Wang
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1040093795
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Distributed Adaptive Consensus Control of Uncertain Multi-Agent Systems by : Wei Wang

Download or read book Distributed Adaptive Consensus Control of Uncertain Multi-Agent Systems written by Wei Wang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2024-08-15 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Multi-agent systems are special networked systems full of research interest and practical sense, which are abundant in real life, ranging from mobile robot networks, intelligent transportation management, to multiple spacecraft, surveillance and monitoring. Consensus control is one of the most typical and hot research issues for multi-agent systems. Distributed Adaptive Consensus Control of Uncertain Multi-agent Systems provides innovative technologies to design and analyze distributed adaptive consensus for multi-agent systems with model uncertainties. Based on the basic graph theory and adaptive backstepping control, this monograph: · Describes the state of the art on distributed adaptive control, finite-time consensus control and event-triggered consensus control · Studies distributed adaptive consensus under directed communication graph condition: the methods with linearly parametric reference, hierarchical decomposition, and design of auxiliary filers · Explores adaptive finite-time consensus for uncertain nonlinear systems · Considers distributed adaptive consensus with event-triggered communication via state feedback and output feedback · Investigates distributed adaptive formation control of nonholonomic mobile robots with experimental verification · Provides distributed adaptive attitude synchronization control schemes for multiple spacecraft with event-triggered communication Distributed Adaptive Consensus Control of Uncertain Multi-agent Systems can help engineering students and professionals to efficiently learn distributed adaptive control design tool for handling uncertain multi-agent systems with directed communication graph, guaranteeing finite-time convergence and saving communication resources.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Author : Van-Nam Huynh
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331925135X
Total Pages : 490 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making by : Van-Nam Huynh

Download or read book Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making written by Van-Nam Huynh and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-08 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modeling and Decision Making, IUKM 2015, held in Nha Trang, Vietnam, in October 2015. The 40 revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 58 submissions and are presented together with three keynote and invited talks. The papers provide a wealth of new ideas and report both theoretical and applied research on integrated uncertainty modeling and management